Jim Feist
Comp NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 11, 2014: 6:00 PM EST
(169) WASHINGTON VS (170) CALIFORNIA
Take: (169) WASHINGTON
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, October 11, 2014 comes in football as Washington and Cal meet in Pac 12 action. Washington (4-1) is very good but a dog here against a rebuilding Cal squad. Washington has had two weeks to prepare after a 20-13 slugfest against Stanford. The Huskies are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. California is favored but one of the worst defensive teams in the nation allowing 40.4 ppg. The Golden Bears are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play Washington!
Comp NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 11, 2014: 6:00 PM EST
(169) WASHINGTON VS (170) CALIFORNIA
Take: (169) WASHINGTON
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, October 11, 2014 comes in football as Washington and Cal meet in Pac 12 action. Washington (4-1) is very good but a dog here against a rebuilding Cal squad. Washington has had two weeks to prepare after a 20-13 slugfest against Stanford. The Huskies are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. California is favored but one of the worst defensive teams in the nation allowing 40.4 ppg. The Golden Bears are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play Washington!
Dave Price
Indiana vs. Iowa
Bonus Play Iowa -3
The Key: Indiana had its way with North Texas last week, racking up 363 rushing yards in a 49-24 victory, but things won't go as smoothly this week. Iowa has had a bye week to prepare and to get healthy. And, it's homecoming in Iowa City, which means the Hawkeyes have a little extra motivation. Indiana has been about as untrustworthy as it gets following a win as it is 0-7 ATS following its last seven victories. The Hoosiers, who rely heavily on their running attack, ran all over North Texas, but they won't have the same luck against an Iowa team that will be well-prepared for their ground game. Besides, Iowa is one of the best in the country at stuffing the run, ranking 8th nationally with just 93.2 ypg allowed. Indiana's outburst against the Mean Green actually spells doom as it is on a 0-8 ATS slide after rushing for 350 yards or more and on a 0-13 ATS skid after outrushing an opponent by 200 yards or more. Many great running teams have taken on the Hawkeyes the last couple decades and almost all of them have bit the dust. Iowa is 23-4 ATS versus teams that average 5.25 rushing yards per carry or more since 1992, and it has defeated these teams by an average score of 29.4 to 21.3. Lay the points with the Hawkeyes.
Indiana vs. Iowa
Bonus Play Iowa -3
The Key: Indiana had its way with North Texas last week, racking up 363 rushing yards in a 49-24 victory, but things won't go as smoothly this week. Iowa has had a bye week to prepare and to get healthy. And, it's homecoming in Iowa City, which means the Hawkeyes have a little extra motivation. Indiana has been about as untrustworthy as it gets following a win as it is 0-7 ATS following its last seven victories. The Hoosiers, who rely heavily on their running attack, ran all over North Texas, but they won't have the same luck against an Iowa team that will be well-prepared for their ground game. Besides, Iowa is one of the best in the country at stuffing the run, ranking 8th nationally with just 93.2 ypg allowed. Indiana's outburst against the Mean Green actually spells doom as it is on a 0-8 ATS slide after rushing for 350 yards or more and on a 0-13 ATS skid after outrushing an opponent by 200 yards or more. Many great running teams have taken on the Hawkeyes the last couple decades and almost all of them have bit the dust. Iowa is 23-4 ATS versus teams that average 5.25 rushing yards per carry or more since 1992, and it has defeated these teams by an average score of 29.4 to 21.3. Lay the points with the Hawkeyes.
Matt Fargo
Rice vs. Army
Bonus Play Rice
We used Rice in this spot last weekend and we will again back the Owls as they look to get to .500 for the first time this season. The Owls lost against Notre Dame and Texas A&M, which are a combined 10-1, away from home and then dropped a tough three-point setback against a very good Old Dominion team at home. Since then, they have won two straight games and this continues an important five-game stretch against mediocre opposition as Rice needs to take care of business if it wants to have a chance at a third straight bowl game as the back end of the schedule is loaded. Army defeated Ball St. last week to end a three-game slide with all of those losses coming on the road. This season, the host is a perfect 5-0 in Army games so the short number here would suggest a win and a cover for the Black Knights but not so fast. They have struggled over the few years to put together winning streaks and you have to go back to 2010 to find the last time Army won consecutive games. The Black Knights have dropped 13 straight games following a victory and most of those haven't even been close with 10 of those defeats coming by double-digits and the average loss in those games has been by 18 ppg. Rice meanwhile has been very good at putting together winning streaks as it is 12-3 in its last 15 games following a victory and those wins have been mostly of the runaway kind as they have come by an average of 13.6 ppg. Play (117) Rice Owls
Rice vs. Army
Bonus Play Rice
We used Rice in this spot last weekend and we will again back the Owls as they look to get to .500 for the first time this season. The Owls lost against Notre Dame and Texas A&M, which are a combined 10-1, away from home and then dropped a tough three-point setback against a very good Old Dominion team at home. Since then, they have won two straight games and this continues an important five-game stretch against mediocre opposition as Rice needs to take care of business if it wants to have a chance at a third straight bowl game as the back end of the schedule is loaded. Army defeated Ball St. last week to end a three-game slide with all of those losses coming on the road. This season, the host is a perfect 5-0 in Army games so the short number here would suggest a win and a cover for the Black Knights but not so fast. They have struggled over the few years to put together winning streaks and you have to go back to 2010 to find the last time Army won consecutive games. The Black Knights have dropped 13 straight games following a victory and most of those haven't even been close with 10 of those defeats coming by double-digits and the average loss in those games has been by 18 ppg. Rice meanwhile has been very good at putting together winning streaks as it is 12-3 in its last 15 games following a victory and those wins have been mostly of the runaway kind as they have come by an average of 13.6 ppg. Play (117) Rice Owls
Jimmy Boyd
Alabama vs. Arkansas
Free Pick on Alabama Crimson Tide -
There’s no question that Arkansas is a much better team this year than the previous versions that got embarrassed by Alabama each of the last two years by 52 points. Add in the advantage of playing at home and getting an extra week to prepare and you might see some value in the Razorbacks +10, but I think this is a bad matchup for Arkansas.
It’s no secret that the strength of Arkansas’ offense is their running game. The Razorbacks come in ranked 7th in the country in rushing, averaging 316.6 ypg. However, they are going up against arguably the best run defense in the country. Alabama is giving up a mere 64.0 ypg on the ground and just 2.6 yards/carry. Arkansas has little to no passing attack, so there figures to be a good chance the offense struggles to sustain drives.
The Crimson Tide on the other hand figure to be able to put up more than their fair share of points. Alabama comes in ranked 9th in the country in total offense (554.6 ypg) and are able to beat teams with both the run (240.4 ypg) and the pass (314.2 ypg). Arkansas’ defense ranks just 92nd in the country against the pass, giving up 263.8 ypg. Don’t be fooled by Alabama only scoring 17 points against Ole Miss. The Rebels have one of the most underrated defenses in the country and feature a top notch secondary that was able to keep star wide out Amari Cooper in check.
With Alabama coming into this game extremely motivated off a loss and the advantages they have on both sides of the ball, I think we could be in store for another Crimson Tide blowout. Arkansas just doesn’t have the ability to play from behind, which means if they fall behind early things could spiral out of control.
Alabama is 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games after a contest in which they failed to cover the spread, while Arkansas is just 19-35 ATS in their last 54 games against teams who are allowing 285 or less total yards/game.
There’s also a strong system favoring the Crimson Tide. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are allowing 16 or less ppg against an average defensive team that’s allowing 21-28 ppg after a contest where they held their opponent to 3 or less points in the 1st half are 39-14 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!
Alabama vs. Arkansas
Free Pick on Alabama Crimson Tide -
There’s no question that Arkansas is a much better team this year than the previous versions that got embarrassed by Alabama each of the last two years by 52 points. Add in the advantage of playing at home and getting an extra week to prepare and you might see some value in the Razorbacks +10, but I think this is a bad matchup for Arkansas.
It’s no secret that the strength of Arkansas’ offense is their running game. The Razorbacks come in ranked 7th in the country in rushing, averaging 316.6 ypg. However, they are going up against arguably the best run defense in the country. Alabama is giving up a mere 64.0 ypg on the ground and just 2.6 yards/carry. Arkansas has little to no passing attack, so there figures to be a good chance the offense struggles to sustain drives.
The Crimson Tide on the other hand figure to be able to put up more than their fair share of points. Alabama comes in ranked 9th in the country in total offense (554.6 ypg) and are able to beat teams with both the run (240.4 ypg) and the pass (314.2 ypg). Arkansas’ defense ranks just 92nd in the country against the pass, giving up 263.8 ypg. Don’t be fooled by Alabama only scoring 17 points against Ole Miss. The Rebels have one of the most underrated defenses in the country and feature a top notch secondary that was able to keep star wide out Amari Cooper in check.
With Alabama coming into this game extremely motivated off a loss and the advantages they have on both sides of the ball, I think we could be in store for another Crimson Tide blowout. Arkansas just doesn’t have the ability to play from behind, which means if they fall behind early things could spiral out of control.
Alabama is 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games after a contest in which they failed to cover the spread, while Arkansas is just 19-35 ATS in their last 54 games against teams who are allowing 285 or less total yards/game.
There’s also a strong system favoring the Crimson Tide. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are allowing 16 or less ppg against an average defensive team that’s allowing 21-28 ppg after a contest where they held their opponent to 3 or less points in the 1st half are 39-14 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!
Doc's Sports
Cincinnati vs. Miami (Fla)
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #133 Take Cincinnati Bearcats over Miami Hurricanes (Saturday 12 pm ESPN Gameplan)
Doc’s Sports has nailed 5 straight Bonus Plays in College Football! Miami is not good enough to be laying this type of number against a decent Cincinnati team. The Canes are starting a young quarterback and he does not have the experience to rack up points and cover big spreads. Cincinnati has been getting picked apart on defense but I believe they will be able to move the football on offense and keep this unit off of the field as much as they can. Georgia Tech held the football for 41 minutes against Miami. The Hurricanes are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take the points in this game. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card highlighted by our PAC-12 Game of the Year on Saturday. Doc’s Sports is coming off a monster weekend and now is the time to jump on board with a veteran handicapper that has 43 years of experience.
Cincinnati vs. Miami (Fla)
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #133 Take Cincinnati Bearcats over Miami Hurricanes (Saturday 12 pm ESPN Gameplan)
Doc’s Sports has nailed 5 straight Bonus Plays in College Football! Miami is not good enough to be laying this type of number against a decent Cincinnati team. The Canes are starting a young quarterback and he does not have the experience to rack up points and cover big spreads. Cincinnati has been getting picked apart on defense but I believe they will be able to move the football on offense and keep this unit off of the field as much as they can. Georgia Tech held the football for 41 minutes against Miami. The Hurricanes are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take the points in this game. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card highlighted by our PAC-12 Game of the Year on Saturday. Doc’s Sports is coming off a monster weekend and now is the time to jump on board with a veteran handicapper that has 43 years of experience.
Freddy Wills
Duke vs. Georgia Tech
1* Bonus Play Duke +3.5
The only reason that Duke is not a premium play here is that they have yet to prove they can stop the run, but there are several reasons why I still like them and will be putting money on them on Saturday. For one there is value here when you look at the fact that Duke lost to Miami and Georgia Tech beat Miami. Oddsmaker's have adjusted the line accordingly, but I don't think that one game is a good indicator in predicting this game.
Duke was the pre-season favorites to win the Coastal and face Florida State in the ACC Championship, but now it's Georgia Tech's hype leading the way. Duke has had 2 weeks to hear about it and prepare for the triple option. If Duke was ever going to stop the triple option it's this year with 2 weeks to prepare and a defense returning 8 starters flush with talent in the back 7. It also is worth knowing that Georgia Tech has not stopped the run either allowing 5.46 ypc which is just what Duke likes to do averaging over 6 ypc. I expect a close game decided by a field goal. I give the edge to Duke, because of the extra time to prepare and they have been clutch on third down allowing just 29% conversions and now they face a team that is really predictable in their play calling.
Duke vs. Georgia Tech
1* Bonus Play Duke +3.5
The only reason that Duke is not a premium play here is that they have yet to prove they can stop the run, but there are several reasons why I still like them and will be putting money on them on Saturday. For one there is value here when you look at the fact that Duke lost to Miami and Georgia Tech beat Miami. Oddsmaker's have adjusted the line accordingly, but I don't think that one game is a good indicator in predicting this game.
Duke was the pre-season favorites to win the Coastal and face Florida State in the ACC Championship, but now it's Georgia Tech's hype leading the way. Duke has had 2 weeks to hear about it and prepare for the triple option. If Duke was ever going to stop the triple option it's this year with 2 weeks to prepare and a defense returning 8 starters flush with talent in the back 7. It also is worth knowing that Georgia Tech has not stopped the run either allowing 5.46 ypc which is just what Duke likes to do averaging over 6 ypc. I expect a close game decided by a field goal. I give the edge to Duke, because of the extra time to prepare and they have been clutch on third down allowing just 29% conversions and now they face a team that is really predictable in their play calling.
Tony George
Oregon vs. UCLA
Tony's FREE NCAA PLAY
PAC 12 Marquee Matchup
Oregon -2.5
Wow…3 weeks ago numerous sports writers and TV guys said this was Oregon's year and the last 2 weeks they have struggled, BUT SO HAS UCLA. The Bruins have struggled all year and won ugly and it caught up to them last week with Utah beating them at home. Enter a pissed off Oregon team with the better QB, because he has more weapons around him and I like the Ducks here.
UCLA is a pretender in big PAC 12 games, between Stanford and Oregon, UCLA has lost 10 straight to those 2 elite PAC 12 teams. Both teams offensive lines a mess, but UCLA allowed 10 sacks last week – UNREAL. Oregon gets back on track in this one and remember this Oregon team hammered a very good Michigan State this season and I feel is battle tested. The revenge factor you ask, well UCLA played with 4 time revenge last year and revenge every year before that for 4 years and never beat the Ducks. I still Oregon if they get healthy on the OL, is still one of the top 8 teams in the nation.
Ask yourself this, what has UCLA done besides disappoint all season? Virginia outscored them 20-7 in their opener and with some defensive miracles they won that game. The allowed 10 sacks last week, 10!! While Oregon is not a Chip Kelly coached team anymore, they have more weapons on offense
FREE Pro Pick on Oregon. Quack Quack!
Oregon vs. UCLA
Tony's FREE NCAA PLAY
PAC 12 Marquee Matchup
Oregon -2.5
Wow…3 weeks ago numerous sports writers and TV guys said this was Oregon's year and the last 2 weeks they have struggled, BUT SO HAS UCLA. The Bruins have struggled all year and won ugly and it caught up to them last week with Utah beating them at home. Enter a pissed off Oregon team with the better QB, because he has more weapons around him and I like the Ducks here.
UCLA is a pretender in big PAC 12 games, between Stanford and Oregon, UCLA has lost 10 straight to those 2 elite PAC 12 teams. Both teams offensive lines a mess, but UCLA allowed 10 sacks last week – UNREAL. Oregon gets back on track in this one and remember this Oregon team hammered a very good Michigan State this season and I feel is battle tested. The revenge factor you ask, well UCLA played with 4 time revenge last year and revenge every year before that for 4 years and never beat the Ducks. I still Oregon if they get healthy on the OL, is still one of the top 8 teams in the nation.
Ask yourself this, what has UCLA done besides disappoint all season? Virginia outscored them 20-7 in their opener and with some defensive miracles they won that game. The allowed 10 sacks last week, 10!! While Oregon is not a Chip Kelly coached team anymore, they have more weapons on offense
FREE Pro Pick on Oregon. Quack Quack!
Jeff Alexander
USC vs. Arizona
Bonus Play Saturday USC -3
Bottom Line: USC was stunned by Arizona State last Saturday, blowing a 9-point lead with under 3 minutes remaining, but don't expect the Trojans to hang their heads with a chance to pull even with Arizona in the Pac-12 South. The Trojans are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. What's even more impressive is their perfect 7-0 ATS mark in road games since 1992 when they are off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They have bounced back to win by an average of 24.3 points in these contests. The fact the Wildcats are a home dog after upsetting Oregon tells us odds makers aren't sold. It's also interesting to note that when the line is +3 to -3 road teams with a winning percentage of 51-60% are 37-13 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Trojans, who are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
USC vs. Arizona
Bonus Play Saturday USC -3
Bottom Line: USC was stunned by Arizona State last Saturday, blowing a 9-point lead with under 3 minutes remaining, but don't expect the Trojans to hang their heads with a chance to pull even with Arizona in the Pac-12 South. The Trojans are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. What's even more impressive is their perfect 7-0 ATS mark in road games since 1992 when they are off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They have bounced back to win by an average of 24.3 points in these contests. The fact the Wildcats are a home dog after upsetting Oregon tells us odds makers aren't sold. It's also interesting to note that when the line is +3 to -3 road teams with a winning percentage of 51-60% are 37-13 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Trojans, who are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
Chip Chirimbes
Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Chip's FREE Winner Minnesota Golden Gophers (-) over Wildcats
Northwestern is off three straight upset victories including wins over Penn State and Wisconsin while Minnesota at 4-1is looking to take advantage of the Wildcats over confidence. The Gophers will control the ball on the ground behind running back David Cobb who need just 11 yards to become a career 2,000 yard rusher. Take MINNESOTA!
Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Chip's FREE Winner Minnesota Golden Gophers (-) over Wildcats
Northwestern is off three straight upset victories including wins over Penn State and Wisconsin while Minnesota at 4-1is looking to take advantage of the Wildcats over confidence. The Gophers will control the ball on the ground behind running back David Cobb who need just 11 yards to become a career 2,000 yard rusher. Take MINNESOTA!
Steve Janus
Cincinnati vs. Miami (Fla)
Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Cincinnati/Miami OVER 57.5---
I think we are catching a favorable total here due to both of these teams coming off a bad offensive performance last week. Cincinnati scored just 14 points at home to Memphis and Cincinnati managed just 17 points at Georgia Tech. I look for both teams to get back on track and have this game flying over the total.
Those that have watched Cincinnati this season, are well aware of how bad they are defensively. The Bearcats actually rank 144th against both the run (255.3 ypg) and the pass (306.5 ypg). This should have Miami scoring at will and should lead to a lot of quick scores.
The Hurricanes have a lot better defensive numbers and there could be some concern with them ranking 6th in the country against the pass but a lot of that is due to who they have played. Four of their six opponents have attempted 40+ rush attempts against them. Even with starting quarterback Gunner Kiel not expected to play, I still think this Bearcats' offense has a lot of explosive players, plus they have an experienced backup in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts.
It's also worth noting that these two teams haven't played each other since 1998 so neither team is going to be familiar with the opposing offense, which is a big disadvantage for the two defenses. BET THE OVER 57.5!
Cincinnati vs. Miami (Fla)
Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Cincinnati/Miami OVER 57.5---
I think we are catching a favorable total here due to both of these teams coming off a bad offensive performance last week. Cincinnati scored just 14 points at home to Memphis and Cincinnati managed just 17 points at Georgia Tech. I look for both teams to get back on track and have this game flying over the total.
Those that have watched Cincinnati this season, are well aware of how bad they are defensively. The Bearcats actually rank 144th against both the run (255.3 ypg) and the pass (306.5 ypg). This should have Miami scoring at will and should lead to a lot of quick scores.
The Hurricanes have a lot better defensive numbers and there could be some concern with them ranking 6th in the country against the pass but a lot of that is due to who they have played. Four of their six opponents have attempted 40+ rush attempts against them. Even with starting quarterback Gunner Kiel not expected to play, I still think this Bearcats' offense has a lot of explosive players, plus they have an experienced backup in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts.
It's also worth noting that these two teams haven't played each other since 1998 so neither team is going to be familiar with the opposing offense, which is a big disadvantage for the two defenses. BET THE OVER 57.5!
