NLCS Game 1 Preview
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (92-75) at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (93-73)
Line & Total: St. Louis -121, San Francisco +111, Total: 6.5
Opening Line & Total: St. Louis -132, San Francisco +122, Total: 6.5
The NLCS starts on Saturday as two of the most consistent teams from the last decade, the Giants and Cardinals, meet up at Busch Stadium.
In a battle of two great pitching staffs, San Francisco outdueled Washington, the National League’s best team, over four games in the NLDS to reach this round. The Giants allowed a mere nine runs over the length of the series while squeaking out three one-run victories, including the first two on the road. The clincher came on Tuesday when they captured a 3-2 win despite going a meager 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position, but took advantage of mistakes from Washington pitching.
C Buster Posey (.391) was 7-for-18 in the series as he manned the duties behind the plate. St. Louis also was the underdog going into its NLDS with the Dodgers and came away with a 3-1 series win with a Game 1 come-from-behind victory and two wins at home to close out the set.
The Cardinals were able to defeat reigning Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw twice in the four contests. In Game 4 they held the Dodgers to a 1-for-7 mark with runners in scoring position, and got a huge three-run homer off the bat of 1B Matt Adams in the bottom of the seventh in a 3-2 game. Although he was held hitless with two strikeouts in Tuesday’s contest, 3B Matt Carpenter provided surprising power in the series as he went 6-for-16 with three doubles, 3 HR, 7 RBI and four runs.
Another exciting pitching matchup will take place on Saturday as LHP Madison Bumgarner (1-1, 1.13 ERA) of the Giants goes up against RHP Adam Wainwright (0-0, 12.46 ERA) for the host Cardinals. San Francisco has been a great road team throughout the year with a 46-38 record (.548, 7th in MLB), while St. Louis has gone a majors-best 53-30 (.639) when playing at Busch Stadium.
There has been no real advantage when these two clubs have met in the past three seasons as they have split 26 games (13-13) against each other while also splitting the 14 games (7-7) in St. Louis. Recently, the Giants have been able to do well when playing on the road though, defeating the Cardinals in 3-of-4 games there this season as they totaled 23 runs.
Bettors should know that San Francisco has gone 42-25 (.627) after having won two of its previous three games this season while St. Louis is 29-7 (.806) in home games with an OBP of .285 or worse over its past five games in the past three years.
One injury to watch on the Giants side of the diamond is OF Michael Morse (oblique) who is questionable for the contest, while OF Angel Pagan (back) and 2B Marco Scutaro (back) remain out for the duration of the playoffs.
The Cardinals have no significant omissions due to injury heading into this series.
Madison Bumgarner has been one of the elite pitchers in baseball over the past four seasons with at least 200 IP, 13 victories and a sub-3.40 ERA in that time. He continued his dominance in 2014 while striking out a career-high 9.1 batters per nine innings and having a career-low walk rate of 1.8 BB/9. Bumgarner always gives his team a chance to come away with a win after finishing the regular season with 10 straight outings of at least six innings pitched and opened these playoffs with two impressive starts as well.
First, he dominated in the Wild Card game with a four-hit shutout with 10 K's, and then was the hard-luck loser after a solid outing (7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 6 K's) versus Washington. Overall in his postseason career, Bumgarner is 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, while he allowed a mere 11 free passes and four homers in 51.2 frames. Against the Cardinals in his career, he has struggled to a 3-5 record over eight starts with a 4.78 ERA. But his WHIP in this matchup is a strong 1.18, and he was tremendous the last time he pitched at St. Louis on May 30 when he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing three hits and striking out 10 batters.
OF Jon Jay and 3B Matt Carpenter have done well off the lefty, combining to go 8-for-16 with five doubles and 2 RBI, while SS Jhonny Peralta (1-for-9, 1 HR, 2 RBI), OF Matt Holliday (2-for-16, 5 K's) and 1B Matt Adams (0-for-3, 2 K's) have struggled in the matchup.
San Francisco’s bullpen has been excellent all year at 34-14 (.708) with a 2.97 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while successfully converting 49-of-68 (72%) save opportunities. Closer Santiago Casilla (0.00 ERA, 2 saves) threw three innings in the NLDS in which he did not allow a hit and walked just one batter after going 19-for-23 (83%) in his save chances over the regular season.
Adam Wainwright was the NL starter for the All-Star Game and for good reason, as he finished the season with 20 victories (2nd in NL) and a 2.38 ERA (3rd in NL). This was the fourth season in five years that he had at least 19 wins, as he has thrown 198 or more innings each time and has posted a walk rate under 2.0 BB/9 in each of the past two campaigns.
After finishing off the regular season with four very impressive performances in which he allowed a mere two runs in 33 IP, Wainwright struggled in his NLDS start against the Dodgers (4.1 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 K's) as he earned a no-decision. In the past he has done much better in the playoffs though, with a 4-3 record, 3.13 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while walking just 1.3 batters per nine innings in 19 appearances (10 starts). His numbers in this matchup are pretty strong, as he's 5-5 (team 6-5) with a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP versus San Francisco.
OF Hunter Pence (.275 BA, 4 doubles, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 12 K's in 51 AB), OF Michael Morse (4-for-14, 1 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBI) and 3B Pablo Sandoval (6-for-18, 2 RBI) have all done well against the masterful veteran, while C Buster Posey, OF Gregor Blanco and 1B Brandon Belt have combined to go a woeful 7-for-39 (.179) with four strikeouts in the matchup.
The Cardinals’ relievers haven't been great this season at 28-24 (.538) with a 3.63 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but have gone 58-for-75 (77%) in save chances. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (3.00 ERA, 3 saves) earned a save in each of the NLDS victories after going 45-of-51 (88%) in the regular season and walking far too many batters (5.4 BB/9).
