i don't know, it would be tough for anyone to play after the video came out, even if this was a Peyton Manning. There would be some people who would still try and justify it but the video speaks volumes. Would be hard for any father with daughters to explain why they actually root for the Broncos if this was Peyton.
Plus, don't you think the media crush would be worse if it was an elite QB? Nobody outside of football circles or Baltimore knows who Ray Rice is but what if this was Brady/Giselle in the elevator? This would be 24/7 news not just on sports networks but every news and entertainment show including big news outside the United States. I could not see the Pats keeping Brady if this video came out. It would be such a huge distraction and black mark on the team/owner no matter what he did in the past. Hell, the Pats cut Hernandez before there was even a trial (what if he was acquitted) and the Pats could have desperately used him last year.
I see your point. I think Brady/Manning aren't the best examples though because of their age. If they had to step away from the game for like 2 years or whatever then yeah they would likely be done.
If it was Andrew Luck though, who is a star in the making but not a superstar household name sports figure on the lines of Brady/Manning/LeBron, etc then I think he would get suspended, contract voided, cut but when he was allowed back in the league he would be with a new team, fresh start. After a few years things would die down and a lot of people would forgive him or just become indifferent about it. I can't imagine 1 domestic assault incident killing his entire career at age 25, even if it was on camera for the world to see. We live in a fast paced world and peoples memories/outrage tend to be pretty short-term these days until they move onto the next issue..
Vick wasn't half the player Luck is and while he didn't slug his GF on camera, he did electrocute dogs and was back in the NFL pretty much as soon as he was allowed to be.
While domestic abuse is no joke, not like Rice is the first. David Justice left Halle Berry like 50% deaf in 1 ear and I don't think anyone boycotted the Braves circa late 90s because of it..