Professional Blackjack .....

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Mr Smith, I disagree. When you have blackjack, and the dealer is showing an ace, you take insurance. You are then guaranteed of winning something off of the hand. Anyone that's a blackjack player knows it sucks getting burnt when you get blackjack & the is dealer showing ace, and turn down insurance, only for the dealer to end up having blackjack also and you win nothing. If I have $100 on the hand, I hit blackjack, I may be looking at $150 if I don't take insurance and dealer's ace doesnt run into BJ, but I know if I do take insurance I am guaranteed at least the $100 even if the dealer does have blackjack also....... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hache, please see my post above about BJ myths...

It is not about GUARANTEEING that you win something that HAND, but rather How you will do from a mathematical Probability over the LONG HAUL.

If you are only playing a few hands then quitting...perhaps it is fine to take the INSURANCE... If you are interested in playing CORRECTLY, over the LONG HAUl... YOU DO NOT.

 

[HacheMan]

SSavant, are we going to have to bring back Identity to give you some competition?!

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> sports savant,
you've earned my respect as one of the sharp posters on here. No sense trying to change the masses. Keep on doing what you're doing. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thanks Doberman

It is simple really, when I started playing BJ I invested 100$ & bought 3 or 4 books on the game...why would I play at 50$ or 100$ a hand & not even know the mathematical probabilites?

Just like when I got my dog, I bought a bunch of books on how to raise dogs correctly & to be obedient...

These people who are arguing are obviously arguing info they have made up or worse yet have heard third hand...

Shocking really...

Imagine playing for REAL MONEY & not even understanding the game? Then arguing false facts to boot?

I do not know all of this becauz I am some kind of Genius, in fact I am barely competent at mathematics...

I have however read alot on the subject & suggest to anyone who plans on playing to do the same thing...

These players are putting the House edge way way up there by playing incorrectly...

Cheers greendoberman & thanks for the kind words.

 

[HacheMan]

I'm not sure what dictates that someone is a "professional" blackjack player,and although I don't normally speak of myself on here,I have to say I win on a consistent basis in BJ, and I can't quite understand the theory of never taking insurance when you have blackjack based on the fact that IT DOESNT HAPPEN THAT OFTEN. I can tell you right now, I have tried that several times and more often than not I have lost guaranteed big hands because I wanted the bigger payout and the house had BJ also......

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> SSavant, are we going to have to bring back Identity to give you some competition?! <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

hache... LOL

I did get a tad over-excited didnt I?

I always wanted to be a lawyer & have some overwhelming urge to convince people of the correct facts when I hear them saying things incorrectly...

It has gotten me in trouble more than once...

I need to learn from my friend GreenDoberman & learn to forget it...

On the other hand... if my posts conviced you & baseball guy about the correct play based on mathematical probabilites... then I guess my posts were worth it...

 

[HacheMan]

Glad you know I was just messing with ya, some people have no sense of humor. I respect your knowledge on particular things......

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I'm not sure what dictates that someone is a "professional" blackjack player <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

It is not about 'professional' when it comes to BASIC STRATEGY... it is about MATHEMATICS over the LONG HAUL...

Professional refers to Card Counters etc... If you know the Deck is loaded with 10's then you are a professional & can modify your play accordingly...

If you do not know how to count cards then BJ is very Black/White... hardly any GREY areas... & your insurance situation is not one of those Grey areas...


<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I respect your knowledge on particular things...... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

...beleive me, I do alot more learning on this website than teaching... that is for sure... LOL A professional sports bettor (or BJ player for that matter) I AM NOT...

 

[HacheMan]

Savant, trust me, I know every angle everyone has ever come up with in Blackjack.....lol....I'm still having a problem with some's philosophy on the Blackjack/insurance ordeal. I'm not sure he has based his decision on mathematics when it comes to this, because as I stated above, this does not happen that often when you figure it in your % of hands played.......

 

[wilheim]

Interesting web site to practice blackjack called hit or stand. You can choose difficulty level for hands you are dealt and asked what it the right play hit or stand.

Hit or stand

wil.

 

[SportSavant]

hache,

I will do a search for a more convincing article that outlines the mathematics of it over the long haul,

I know you are saying it rarely comes up... but beleive me... If you are playing all Day 5 days a week it does come up enough to make a difference...

A similar analogy in sports betting would be something like saying:

I am not gonna bother opening more than one sportsbook... who cares if I get -3.5 & others have -3... as if the 1/2 point is gonna make a difference!!!

IN 19/20 games the 1/2 point may not make a difference but one out of every 20 it will... In the Long Haul having that 1/2 point for the win or the PUSH would make a huge difference.

In the Insurance example if you refuse insurance every time (ASSUMING YOU ARE NOT CARD COUNTING) & you accept the 150$ for every BJ you win & accept the PUSH every time the dealer also has BJ... You will make more money by collecting all the 150's then the guaranteed 100$ every time.

[This message was edited by SportSavant on July 08, 2004 at 07:52 PM.]

 

[GreenDoberman]

Hache, here is the math behind.

There are 52 cards in a single deck. You have an Ace and a Ten for BJ, the dealer has an Ace.
Not knowing any other cards, there are 49 cards left with 15 tens left. 15/49= 30.6%
Meaning there is a 30.6 percent chance the dealer has a ten in the hole for blackjack.

You bet $100 and take even money (insurance) 49 times. Obviously, your total win will be $100 * 49 or $4900.

You bet $100 and never take insurance. 15 times the dealer will have blackjack and you will push (break even). 34 times the dealer will NOT have blackjack and you will win 34 * $150 (you 3-2 payoff on BJ) for a total win of $5100.

Never taking insurance you clear $5100, always taking insurance you clear $4900. You make $200 more every 49 hands or $4.08 every time this situation comes up. So you are losing $4.08 in the long run every time you take even money when the dealer shows an ace.

Obviously the figures can be tweaked for the rules of the game and the number of decks, but I hope this clearly illustrates why this is a bad bet.

 

[SportSavant]

wow...

greendoberman

you are one smart cookie...

why didnt you post that before?

THIS THREAD IS WHAT THE RX IS ALL ABOUT... HALLELULIAH

 

[X-Files]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Aside from counting good BJ play starts with strong basic stradegy. I have seen players at roulette tables with charts and pads etc. Is it within the rules in Las Vegas to use a copy of a basic stradegy at a blackjack table in plain sight?


wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I don't know about Vegas, but it is allowed in
every casino I've been in in Canada. Casinos
have complimentary BS cards on display or
available upon request.

 

[X-Files]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Illini:
Dealers are no pros either, but most of them in Vegas will give the correct option, if a player asks them. I was playing one time, although not in Vegas, and this chick next to me asked if she should split her 4's. I said yes, that is the correct play. This was a 6 deck shoe with doubling after splitting, and the dealer was showing a 5. No question about it, the correct play. The bitch dealer laughed at me and basically said I was an idiot to my face. Stupid cocky bitch...haven't thought about that in a long time, and I'm beginning to feel pissed again.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Some BS cards would agree with you, but most
I've seen agree with the dealer.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/

http://www.blackjackplaza.com/blackjack_strategy.html

 

[HacheMan]

lol SSavant and GB......I know you aren't going to believe this, but using your guys' suggestions out of curiosity, I just lost 4 hands of blackjack by not taking insurance because the dealer also had blackjack. This is too funny, and crazy at that, that this happpened after our convesations about this. Now people that know me here know I don't BS. It happened at Sports Interaction Casino. Im about to go look to see if there is a history that I can copy and paste..........Any posters here that are employed at Sports Interaction that can help me verify this.........?

 

[Key]

Sick, you just supported what I was saying. The way the game is played affects the sequence of the remainder of the shoe. Does not affect the rest of the month or day or hour or next shoe etc. My point was if you have two decks that have an identical sequence (the cards being in the same order) and play them at two tables with two different groups of players while one table has everyone playing text book and the other has some guy playing like your Chinaman was, you would have two different outcomes. I never said that this decreases your chances of winning. You just don't know. One of those "what if" things that is not worth reflecting on. But once again, an extra ill advised hit or a text book hold will affect the remainder of the shoe, now weather or not it will be positive or negative is not known. I never said that a player that makes ill advised moves on the black jack table hurts you. Just affects the remainder of the shoe.

 

[Illini]

Whatever, X-Files. Even one of the links you post says you split 4's against a 5 or 6, provided you can double after splitting. That's common knowledge.

 

[SportSavant]

hache...

I beleive you

One of those things...

BTW,

I cant beleive you would play at SIA CASINO

, Use them for sports all the time but they are a bit slimey in the cx service department

then again, if you have played enough hands you would definately have a feel wether the game is honest or not...

email me at sportsavant@sportsavant.com Ill share a little tip with you...

One thing that is proven, however, is that if it happened to you 4 timees in a row...it shows that the situation probably comes up more than you were suspecting....

Track it over the next 49 hands per the formula greendoberman kindly shared with us above...

 

[X-Files]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Illini:
Whatever, X-Files. Even one of the links you post says you split 4's against a 5 or 6, provided you can double after splitting. That's common knowledge.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yes, you are right.

With the doubling after splitting rule,
the BS play is to split the 4's.

I was mistaken.

 

[Marco]

Key....I can see we both agree that the outcome of the shoe can change either for the players or against the players.....only time will tell..

...however, not only does it effect that shoe, but it also effects all the shoes after that one, considering the fact that the cards are now swept in in a different order, and these cards are in a totally different sequence a shoe or two or three or four down the line....still doesn't determine necessarily whether the outcome will be for or against the players, but changing the order the cards are swept up and consequently stacked and shuffled will change the outcome of all the future shoes, until that entire deck or decks is changed with a cold deck brought in from the backroom....

Some of you guys are scratching your heads right now, but think about it....