Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[Ricboff]

k,

MT-- say, as in post 91...Vit is hitting 75% and Mich is hitting 35%..the bet is MID-WAY during the year. 55% and 53% are avergae from the START OF A SEASON TO THE END OF A SEASON

does that change anything?

 

[PatsFan1283]

It would make the person that is 55% a bigger fav because the sample size would be bigger, thus exposing them to less variance.

 

[festeringZit]

Lets say mich hits 55 and I hit 53. He wins 2nd half bet while I win by large margin for the season. You really can't see how that would be an incredibly stupid bet for me.

Even throwing out regression.....it would be a stupid bet.

He has no clue. Part of me thinks he's pretending to be this dumb just to troll us.

 

[MantisToboggan]

k,

MT-- say, as in post 91...Vit is hitting 75% and Mich is hitting 35%..the bet is MID-WAY during the year. 55% and 53% are avergae from the START OF A SEASON TO THE END OF A SEASON

does that change anything?

No it doesn't change anything. Regression simply means that because their first half results are extreme, they are likely to be close to their averages the 2nd half of the season.

So vit hits 75% first half and then 55% second half and Mich hits 35% first half and 53% second half.

 

[NFLTrends]

I wouldnt take that bet either if I have been on a streak to the positive, and someone has been on a streak to the negative.

Streaks have a way of ending, and law of averages kick in, and the positive streaker and negative streaker switch sides.

I would be in the same boat with Vit on this one, I would not take a bet with someone who has been doing the complete opposite of me after the middle of a betting race.

But, I would make a bet beginning of a new season.

 

[Ricboff]

k. thanks

 

[vitterd]

No, I don't think it's a stupid bet if you are the better baseball bettor. I think it's stupid not to take the bet.

Surprising that some people can't understand this. It will be proven I'm the better MLB handicapper and I will probably lose the bet. You can't understand how stupid it is if I outperform him by 69 dimes over a full season but still then have to pay him a thousand.

So I prove im the better capper by far over the full season and still have to pay him and lose the contest. Look at it like this:

vit is plus 13k for the season


mich is minus 59k for the season


vit owes mich a thousand and he wins the contest and is better handicapper.

Read that a few times.

 

[Ricboff]

I wouldnt take that bet either if I have been on a streak to the positive, and someone has been on a streak to the negative.

Streaks have a way of ending, and law of averages kick in, and the positive streaker and negative streaker switch sides.

I would be in the same boat with Vit on this one, I would not take a bet with someone who has been doing the complete opposite of me after the middle of a betting race.

But, I would make a bet beginning of a new season.

i agree. especially if both are in outlier territory

 

[vitterd]

I wouldnt take that bet either if I have been on a streak to the positive, and someone has been on a streak to the negative.

Streaks have a way of ending, and law of averages kick in, and the positive streaker and negative streaker switch sides.

I would be in the same boat with Vit on this one, I would not take a bet with someone who has been doing the complete opposite of me after the middle of a betting race.

But, I would make a bet beginning of a new season.

And that's exactly what I did. Made a bet with him starting at 0-0 for a full season next year.

The concept is a simple one. Thanks

 

[MantisToboggan]

Surprising that some people can't understand this. It will be proven I'm the better MLB handicapper and I will probably lose the bet. You can't understand how stupid it is if I outperform him by 69 dimes over a full season but still then have to pay him a thousand.

So I prove im the better caller by far over the full season and still have to pay him and lose the contest. Look at it like this:

vit is plus 13k for the season


mich is minus 59k for the season


vit owes mich a thousand and he wins the contest and is better handicapper.

Read that a few times.

I am only looking at this from a math perspective. I don't let feelings influence my gambling.

 

[Acebb]

No, I don't think it's a stupid bet if you are the better baseball bettor. I think it's stupid not to take the bet.

I agree, but since he's a lying coward, of course he won't do it.

 

[PatsFan1283]

No it doesn't change anything. Regression simply means that because their first half results are extreme, they are likely to be close to their averages the 2nd half of the season.

So vit hits 75% first half and then 55% second half and Mich hits 35% first half and 53% second half.

When the bet starts and how long it goes would change the probability of who is going to win if player A was 55% and player B was 53%.

 

[Acebb]

He has no clue. Part of me thinks he's pretending to be this dumb just to troll us.

No, he's actually this stupid.

This isn't the first time (nor will it be the last) he takes a laughably stupid position and repeats it over & over as if he's explained something.

It is comical how dumb this guy is yet how often he asserts he is somehow more intelligent than other posters.

 

[vitterd]

I agree, but since he's a lying coward, of course he won't do it.

Lmao.....says the guy that's run from 9 bets heads up against me. And several others from other posters.

 

[drpugilist]

apparently michelangelo doesnt want this bet either.
im on vits side on this one. he's bound to come back percentage wise. if of course these percentages and figures are true to begin with.
now, with that said, wouldnt those figs carry over to next mlb season, or do the gambling gods wipe the slate clean after the world series each yr?

id say take the bet. its 1k which is nothing compared to your bankroll. unless youre worried abt not being called the better handicapper. you could stop all of these people calling you a pussy though win or lose. take the bet and shut them all up!

 

[vitterd]

No, he's actually this stupid.

This isn't the first time (nor will it be the last) he takes a laughably stupid position and repeats it over & over as if he's explained something.

It is comical how dumb this guy is yet how often he asserts he is somehow more intelligent than other posters.

Why did you stop posting picks after going winless in 3 sports?

why have you run from every bet?

 

[Ricboff]

Acebb, he is accepting a bet at the start of the NFL season and next yr start of the baseball season. So , with all due respect, coward is a bit harsh. Looks like he is basing his decision on his historical baseball record and his current ytd numbers.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I wouldnt take that bet either if I have been on a streak to the positive, and someone has been on a streak to the negative.

Streaks have a way of ending, and law of averages kick in, and the positive streaker and negative streaker switch sides.

I would be in the same boat with Vit on this one, I would not take a bet with someone who has been doing the complete opposite of me after the middle of a betting race.

But, I would make a bet beginning of a new season.

Yeah, this isn't really how you should look at it but a lot of gamblers think this way. Which is why I was surprised Zit made such a big deal out of what Vitt said.

People use logic like that all the time on the forums. Vitterd is not a unique snowflake on this 1.

 

[vitterd]

apparently michelangelo doesnt want this bet either.
im on vits side on this one. he's bound to come back percentage wise. if of course these percentages and figures are true to begin with.
now, with that said, wouldnt those figs carry over to next mlb season, or do the gambling gods wipe the slate clean after the world series each yr?

id say take the bet. its 1k which is nothing compared to your bankroll. unless youre worried abt not being called the better handicapper. you could stop all of these people calling you a pussy though win or lose. take the bet and shut them all up!

Im not taking a bet that could end up me being plus 13k for the year and him being minus 60k.....and he wins. Never gonna happen. We will start at 0-0 when football starts.

 

[Acebb]

One other point here. It is fucking hilarious that mr. "I won $20K!!!" (or whatever the fake, monopoly number is today) and mr. never-has-to-work-again, "my wife's entire paycheck goes into the bank" is terrified to pay out $1,000 in a scenario where he would have a profit for the baseball season anyway.

Why, it is almost as if he isn't really a never-have-to-work-again millionaire who is profiting in baseball or something.