Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[festeringZit]

Im not surprised you don't get this. You are another dipshit that trolls me.

Let me explain it slow so you can understand.

Im not gonna keep hitting at this high rate. Mich won't continue to hit at such a low rate....based on both of our past performances.

I will smash him for the full season and he should be able to win the 2nd half bet. He should not be rewarded for being soundly beaten over a full season

This is even easy for you to understand but you're just not smart.

You're an idiot. You continue to be an idiot.

If you believe you're a better capper than him, you should take every bet against him, past results have to bearing on future bets. Idiot.

 

[boss415]

!~))!!~))!!~))!!~))!!~))!!~))!!~))!!~))!!~))!
Poker Star ^^^^^^^^

 

[vitterd]

You're an idiot. You continue to be an idiot.

If you believe you're a better capper than him, you should take every bet against him, past results have to bearing on future bets. Idiot.

Of course they do. There is a reason that Joe and the boss idiot are the only ones backing you up.

If we both are known to hit 55 percent over last few full seasons.....and I'm at 70 percent midway and he's at 30 percent.....by end of the season.....it will move closer to the norm. I will still win for the season and he will lose.....but I will lose the bet. That's why I don't take the bet. Only you and a few other idiots cannot understand this.

Sports betting and independent roulette spins are not the same thing.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Of course they do. There is a reason that Joe and the boss idiot are the only ones backing you up.

If we both are known to hit 55 percent over last few full seasons.....and I'm at 70 percent midway and he's at 30 percent.....by end of the season.....it will move closer to the norm. I will still win for the season and he will lose.....but I will lose the bet. That's why I don't take the bet. Only you and a few other idiots cannot understand this.

Sports betting and independent roulette spins are not the same thing.

If you're both "known to hit 55%", the odds that you'd lose the 2nd half to Mich are the same as the odds that you'd beat him in the 2nd half. He'll move up while hitting 55% and you'll move down while hitting 55%. I'm not sure why you think you'll lose.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Vittards excuse is so lame. Like because Brandon Lang has been horrible forever he is due ?

Yep, that's poker fraud vtard logic for you.

Both and he and michelangelo would be starting out 0-0 for the remainder of the MLB season (1200 games) but our resident retard thinks he's at a disadvantage or something.

"Sports betting and independent roulette spins are not the same thing."

His voodoo superstitions are hilarious.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Like 1/2 of gamblers probably find Vitt's logic and probability statements to be legitimate. People thought Lynch was 20% to score from the GL in the SB because he was 1/5 that year.

I mean this isn't anything startling even if he is wrong. Most people skipped Stats 101.

 

[vitterd]

If you're both "known to hit 55%", the odds that you'd lose the 2nd half to Mich are the same as the odds that you'd beat him in the 2nd half. He'll move up while hitting 55% and you'll move down while hitting 55%. I'm not sure why you think you'll lose.

Then I lose the bet. The bet does not include the first half winnings. So if I move down and he moves up.....he wins.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Then I lose the bet. The bet does not include the first half winnings. So if I move down and he moves up.....he wins.

No, you don't lose. You would tie because you'd both hit 55 percent over the 2nd half.

 

[vitterd]

Like 1/2 of gamblers probably find Vitt's logic and probability statements to be legitimate. People thought Lynch was 20% to score from the GL in the SB because he was 1/5 that year.

I mean this isn't anything startling even if he is wrong. Most people skipped Stats 101.

The concept is simple and I spelled it out....even for those that I know struggle to understand things. The guy is 100 games under .500....and I'm 16 games above. Why would I start even now when every sane person knows the chances of me improving and him doing worse are slim to none.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah, I would be drawing absolutely dead to explain to you why your logic is flawed. Been in more conversations like that than I'd care to admit. Especially on here.

If you think you are a better MLB capper then him, you take the bet. If you don't, then you don't. Unless of course there are other factors like credit worthiness, you just don't feel like capping 2nd half, etc

 

[MantisToboggan]

The concept is simple and I spelled it out....even for those that I know struggle to understand things. The guy is 100 games under .500....and I'm 16 games above. Why would I start even now when every sane person knows the chances of me improving and him doing worse are slim to none.

The chances of you winning and him winning are the exact same if you're both 55% winners.

 

[MantisToboggan]

It's amazing that guys who gamble daily have no basic understand of probabilities.

 

[vitterd]

No, you don't lose. You would tie because you'd both hit 55 percent over the 2nd half.

I understand that........but I'm hitting at such a higher clip now that's it essentially me giving up what I've accumulated in baseball already. Based on 1,000 per game I'm +14k for the year and he's -60k. Let's say he ends up winning 1k over second half and I stay even....at the end of the year he is -59k and I'm +14k.....I pay him a thousand dollars and he claims to be the better baseball handicapper? That's why I wanna start from the beginning. Chances are great that he will improve and I will not.

 

[SheriffJoe]

It's amazing that guys who gamble daily have no basic understand of probabilities.

Good luck trying to explain it to a guy who didn't even make it past the 7th grade.

 

[MantisToboggan]

I understand that........but I'm hitting at such a higher clip now that's it essentially me giving up what I've accumulated in baseball already. Based on 1,000 per game I'm +14k for the year and he's -60k. Let's say he ends up winning 1k over second half and I stay even....at the end of the year he is -59k and I'm +14k.....I pay him a thousand dollars and he claims to be the better baseball handicapper? That's why I wanna start from the beginning. Chances are great that he will improve and I will not.

What you're at for the year has no effect on future results.

 

[vitterd]

It's amazing that guys who gamble daily have no basic understand of probabilities.

It simply doesn't make sense to make this bet when he's performed so poorly and I haven't. It's giving up a huge lead to start at 0-0 and im not doing that.

 

[SheriffJoe]

I understand that........but I'm hitting at such a higher clip now that's it essentially me giving up what I've accumulated in baseball already. Based on 1,000 per game I'm +14k for the year and he's -60k. Let's say he ends up winning 1k over second half and I stay even....at the end of the year he is -59k and I'm +14k.....I pay him a thousand dollars and he claims to be the better baseball handicapper? That's why I wanna start from the beginning. Chances are great that he will improve and I will not.

It simply doesn't make sense to make this bet when he's performed so poorly and I haven't. It's giving up a huge lead to start at 0-0 and im not doing that.

 

[vitterd]

What you're at for the year has no effect on future results.

im not gonna continue this rate for a full season and neither will he. He will go up and I will go down in all probability. It's essentially me giving up a huge lead and I'm not doing that.

i offered to start back at 0-0 at the beginning of each season. That's fair.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I can understand thinking you are right when it is you and Zit going back and forth since you guys have that tension thing going. But when 3 or 4 people tell you that your logic may be flawed, why not just re-evaluate your thought process? I don't understand why this is so hard for some people.

 

[vitterd]

What you're at for the year has no effect on future results.

You think I will continue this rate for the rest of the year? I do not. There is no reason to think I will hit this high rate over a full season. There is no reason to think he will finish this low. I will come back to the pack and he will move up. I will destroy him for the overall season....and will lose 2nd half bet in all probability. Im not paying him a dime for that.