Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[vitterd]

ROFL. You still don't get it. You are willing to take the bet at the start of next season, that is just some made up artificial boundary line.

Like I said before, Michelangelo could be way down to you since the beginning of the season, but way up over you over the last 5 years - using your logic, he could pick the last 5 years as his artificial boundary, and say
"Vit has an advantage over me because I'm way up over him over the last 5 years. So I have to wait some artificial number of games to start over"

My god. You're not getting this. It's about percentages. And it's just this simple.

If mich is a 50 percent capper and I'm a 55 percent capper overall. If he's currently hitting 30 percent and I'm hitting 65.....how do you think this will turn out for me over the second half? If he beats me in 2nd half, it's not an accurate representation of who had the better baseball season and there is no way that I'm paying him after I beat him in a full season by a ton. It would be silly.

 

[festeringZit]

My god. You're not getting this. It's about percentages. And it's just this simple.

If mich is a 50 percent capper and I'm a 55 percent capper overall. If he's currently hitting 30 percent and I'm hitting 65.....how do you think this will turn out for me over the second half? If he beats me in 2nd half, it's not an accurate representation of who had the better baseball season.

The proposed bet isn't about "who had the better season." He wants to bet the remaining games in the season. If you are indeed 5% better capper than him, you should take the bet, it is +EV for you, and
for the 2000th time, it has nothing to do with past results, they have NO EFFECT ON YOUR expected value for future bets. Given your 50%/55% assumption, your expected value on future bets
is a 5% advantage, irregardless if last months, last years results. Ugh, I can't believe you're so fucking dense.

 

[ShotgunPete]

Vitterd already said he would bet him when the seasons begin.So when Football season begins let's see if they bet against each other.

 

[festeringZit]

What are the chances that Vitterd isn't really this stupid, and he's just trolling, pretending to be this stupid - in order to get attention?

 

[festeringZit]

Vitterd already said he would bet him when the seasons begin.So when Football season begins let's see if they bet against each other.

That's not the point of this discussion.

Vitterd contends that Michelangelo has had such a bad baseball season so far, that for Vitterd to bet him only the remaining games of this season (even though Vit thinks he's a better capper),
Vitterd says Michelangelo's shitty results actually gives Michelangelo an ADVANTAGE for the remainder of the season.

I contend that this is utter stupidity, borderline retardation. And the fact that he still doesn't get it after I tried to explain it to him for an hour, shows just how utterly stupid Vitterd is.

 

[vitterd]

The proposed bet isn't about "who had the better season." He wants to bet the remaining games in the season. If you are indeed 5% better capper than him, you should take the bet, it is +EV for you, and
for the 2000th time, it has nothing to do with past results, they have NO EFFECT ON YOUR expected value for future bets. Given your 50%/55% assumption, your expected value on future bets
is a 5% advantage, irregardless if last months, last years results. Ugh, I can't believe you're so fucking dense.

I don't know if I'm 5 percent bettor. Those numbers were just made up in hopes you would understand what's happening.

It isnt some random made up time. I believe mich will improve based on his previous handicapping. I believe I will come back to the pack based on what I've done in previous seasons with the same amount of games.

I want the bet based on a full season....if we did it this season it would be over by the now.....can't figure out why you don't see this.

 

[vitterd]

Vitterd already said he would bet him when the seasons begin.So when Football season begins let's see if they bet against each other.

Zit simply doesn't understand what he's talking about. The concept is simple. He just does t see it.

Yes, we have a bet at the start of each season....where the records are 0-0.

 

[festeringZit]

I don't know if I'm 5 percent bettor. Those numbers were just made up in hopes you would understand what's happening.

It isnt some random made up time. I believe mich will improve based on his previous handicapping. I believe I will come back to the pack based on what I've done in previous seasons with the same amount of games.

I want the bet based on a full season....if we did it this season it would be over by the now.....can't figure out why you don't see this.

I see very clearly.

If you think you are a better capper, you should take any bet over any period of time, one game, ten games, 1 season. If you don't think you are
a better capper, then you shouldn't. Your stupid idea that Mich has an advantage for the next couple months because of his bad results earlier this
year is utter stupidity, and shows your lack of understanding in basic junior high math.

 

[boss415]

Vitterd is here to teach us that are republican. The sports is just a side show. That being said somebody that has been losing all season has an advantage over somebody who has been winning is about as ignorant as it gets. No confidence whatsoever

 

[Greenbacks]

Let`s do a 2 man team.

Me and vitterd against festeringZit and Michelangelo.

$1000.00 in the pool.

75 games left in season....That`s enough.

I`m in.

 

[vitterd]

I see very clearly.

If you think you are a better capper, you should take any bet over any period of time, one game, ten games, 1 season. If you don't think you are
a better capper, then you shouldn't. Your stupid idea that Mich has an advantage for the next couple months because of his bad results earlier this
year is utter stupidity, and shows your lack of understanding in basic junior high math.

Ive explained it clearly. Mich will probably outperform me the 2nd half if he performs at his usual level. If I perform at mine....I will lose the 2nd half of MLB season and win for the full season. It's clear what the likely outcome will be.

Its simple to figure out.

 

[ShotgunPete]

Vitterd is here to teach us that are republican. The sports is just a side show. That being said somebody that has been losing all season has an advantage over somebody who has been winning is about as ignorant as it gets. No confidence whatsoever

I'm just waiting for Acebb to show up and start talking about ''steam'' for a full circle.

 

[vitterd]

I'm just waiting for Acebb to show up and start talking about ''steam'' for a full circle.

Lol....Acebb should hide after his performance in the pick thread. Guy was winless in 3 sports and quit.

 

[boss415]

Vittards excuse is so lame. Like because Brandon Lang has been horrible forever he is due ?

 

[vitterd]

Vittards excuse is so lame. Like because Brandon Lang has been horrible forever he is due ?

Im not surprised you don't get this. You are another dipshit that trolls me.

Let me explain it slow so you can understand.

Im not gonna keep hitting at this high rate. Mich won't continue to hit at such a low rate....based on both of our past performances.

I will smash him for the full season and he should be able to win the 2nd half bet. He should not be rewarded for being soundly beaten over a full season

This is even easy for you to understand but you're just not smart.

 

[Greenbacks]

3 pages long and the guy that he`s suppose to compete against isn`t even in this thread :think2:

 

[vitterd]

3 pages long and the guy that he`s suppose to compete against isn`t even in this thread :think2:

He's not any smarter than the other guys that can't figure this out.

Im betting the guy in every sport at the start of each season. START....not halfway thru where I'm over performing and he's under performing.

 

[boss415]

Im not surprised you don't get this. You are another dipshit that trolls me.

Let me explain it slow so you can understand.

Im not gonna keep hitting at this high rate. Mich won't continue to hit at such a low rate....based on both of our past performances.

I will smash him for the full season and he should be able to win the 2nd half bet. He should not be rewarded for being soundly beaten over a full season

This is even easy for you to understand but you're just not smart.

The browns are due too pussy

 

[vitterd]

The browns are due too pussy

It isnt due dipshit. You are too fucking to dumb understand anything. Concentration your flag burning enemies.

 

[boss415]

It isnt due dipshit. You are too fucking to dumb understand anything. Concentration your flag burning enemies.

Dipshit ? Your usual argument. I thought you were here to teach us? Millionaire poker star pusses out of a contest for a dime because a guy down 70 unit is gonna come back to the mean?