Hey Vit, how much do you want to wager on this?
Assuming that capping skills haven't changed month over month, I contend that last month's results have absolutely 0 bearing on next month's results,
you say that I'm retarded and wrong, that if someone goes 21-3 last month, that affects their next month's results.
I'll bet you any amount of money that you are totally fucked in the head stupid and wrong.
Bet?
Assuming that capping skills haven't changed month over month, I contend that last month's results have absolutely 0 bearing on next month's results,
you say that I'm retarded and wrong, that if someone goes 21-3 last month, that affects their next month's results.
I'll bet you any amount of money that you are totally fucked in the head stupid and wrong.
Bet?
Of course it does. If I'm hitting 80 percent for 2 months......and Mich is hitting 20 percent over first 2 months of baseball......the next 2 months....I won't be hitting 80 percent and he wont be hitting 20 percent. There's not even a question about it. Mich has had success as a baseball capper in the past.....there is no reason to think he won't get back money this second half...I mean this is common sense in sports handicapping.
Im sure you will find some data to support your case but there is a reason guys come back to the mean in sports gambling. It's completely different than a coin flip. It's why nobody hits at 65/70 percent.
Its unthinkable that you don't understand why I'm at a disadvantage. He's not gonna continue to lose at such a high rate and I'm not gonna continue to win at a high rate.
I'll try to explain it another way.
Chances are you won't hit 80 percent again is not because you hit 80 percent last month (that is irrelevant) but it's because you are not an 80% capper. Last month's results have nothing to do with it.
Chances are Mich won't hit 20% next month, not because of his results last month, but because he's not a 20% capper.
What bet? That you can find some statistical data to back you up? I'm sure you can.
Anybody that undestands sports gambling understands why I would not take this bet and why I'm at a disadvantage. I'm my gonna continue to win at such a high rate and he won't lose at a high rate. I will win over the entire baseball season and he will lose and I could lose the bet. You have to understand that. It's simple.
It's not data to support my case, it's basic probability theory.
If you are a lifetime 55% capper, and that is a fair evaluation of your skill and ability, and you hit 80% last month, then your expected results for next month are 55% regardless if you went 80% or 20% last month.
Last month's results, or last 6 months, or last year's results have no bearing, none.
Of course and that's precisely why I won't take the bet and why he has the advantage. I'm hitting a high percentage of games and he's hitting a low percentage....over the 2nd half of the season we will get closer together instead of further apart. Statistically it's obvious. So why would I take the bet?
Sigh. Look at it this way. We know mich isn't as bad as he's been the first half and I'm not gonna continue to hit at my high rate. So why would I take the bet? I know he's gonna do better and I'm either gonna stay same or fall off. So he will win the 2nd half while I have the better overall season. So he should win because of that?
ROFL. You still don't get it. You are willing to take the bet at the start of next season, that is just some made up artificial boundary line.
Like I said before, Michelangelo could be way down to you since the beginning of the season, but way up over you over the last 5 years - using your logic, he could pick the last 5 years as his artificial boundary, and say
"Vit has an advantage over me because I'm way up over him over the last 5 years. So I have to wait some artificial number of games to start over"
