Poster Michelangelo wants to bet Vitterd $1K on baseball for the rest of the season. Vit won't take the bet. Why?

[Acebb]

if youre better than him, youre better than him. otherwise, why not just stop betting mlb the rest of the way? that would be the smart thing wouldnt it?

Why, yes.

To put this into perspective: If you’re willing to believe this clown actually wagers $1,000 per game, and assume a very conservative 2 games per day until the end of the season, he is going to risk $142,000 (even $ each game) between tomorrow and the end of the baseball regular season (not even counting playoffs)

Again, he claims to wager $1,000 per game and will be risking $142,000 (again, bare minimum, not counting today) but will not add $1,000 on top of that for picks he’s going to post anyway.

Why, it is almost as if he doesn’t wager $1,000 a game or something.

 

[Acebb]

Come on vit this is .1% of your lifetime poker winnings

For a guy who "gambles every day" and every penny of his wife's pay check goes "into the bank and never gets touched" a $1,000 is sure seeming like a lot of money.

Of course he's been reduced to pretending he's being asked to give away the money when pressed on this point.

 

[Enfuego]

Let`s do a 2 man team.

Me and vitterd against festeringZit and Michelangelo.

$1000.00 in the pool.

75 games left in season....That`s enough.

I`m in.

Are you actually going to track your units won/lost for a contest or just your record?

 

[BleedingPurple]

As BleedingPurple would say, "apples to oranges there."

The oddsmaker sets the price on the Spurs, not vtard's handicapping. If the Spurs tore it up the first half of the season, it is possible the oddsmaker would deliberately shade future spreads against the Spurs (depending on what the public perceives) which isn't the case here. vtard can choose to bet any team so BP's argument is a non-sequitur.

Going forward, both Mich and vtard are free to choose any team(s) where they have identified theoretical +EV.

Period. End of story.

Let the games begin! Oh, wait...

face)(*^%

It was a bit of sarcasm.. What if the Clippers were 25 - 15 at the All Star Break and the Spurs were 18 - 22. Should the Clippers take the bet that they are just going to automatically win more games from the All Star Break on?

 

[boss415]

Lol

So I guess this means the Braves are going to have the best record in baseball the rest of the season

Braves are going to be best team in the second half. Browns are going to be winners. Tampa Bay Rays will dominate! It is all just math and makes total sense

 

[Ricboff]

If two mutual fund managers were going to bet on who will have the better year, and 1 went -10% last year and 1 went +10%, if the guy who went +10% thought he was the fund manager, then he should still make the bet.[/QUOT

for me, ONLY if there is data to support. Run on data, not emotion. EVIDENCED based.

what would you want healthcare to run on?

 

[CHOPTALK]

This is not comparable at all. And it's really a stupid thing to say.

It's very comparable do I need to explain

 

[vitterd]

For a guy who "gambles every day" and every penny of his wife's pay check goes "into the bank and never gets touched" a $1,000 is sure seeming like a lot of money.

Of course he's been reduced to pretending he's being asked to give away the money when pressed on this point.

Why did you stop posting picks after going winless in 3 sports?

why have you declined 9 bets here....including one offered by choptalk?

 

[vitterd]

It's very comparable do I need to explain

No....the fact that you would compare a baseball team with interchanging parts year to year and a handicapper that may hit 53/55 percent over several years is all I need to know.

the comparison is moronic and is hardly worth expanding further.

 

[Enfuego]

Vit - your issue here in this argument is it's just not based on mathematical probability. It's just a flawed logic.

Like another poster said earlier, if you think you're better, take the bet.

Let's say Serena Williams is on a 50 game winning streak. She's 50-0 over her last 50 games. Her proposed opponent is 0-50. You have to take the bet if you think you're better. Although Serena is bound to lose and her opponent is bound to win, if she's better, it's in her best interest to take the bet on winning the match.

 

[vitterd]

Vit - your issue here in this argument is it's just not based on mathematical probability. It's just a flawed logic.

Like another poster said earlier, if you think you're better, take the bet.

Let's say Serena Williams is on a 50 game winning streak. She's 50-0 over her last 50 games. Her proposed opponent is 0-50. You have to take the bet if you think you're better. Although Serena is bound to lose and her opponent is bound to win, if she's better, it's in her best interest to take the bet on winning the match.

People are having trouble grasping this. I'm not paying a guy a thousand that I beat by 10 miles over the course of the entire season because he has a good 2 month stretch.

Look at this logic:

vit wins 13k over the season

mich loses 59k over the season

mich wins 2 month stretch by a dollar. I owe mich 1,000 and he's the winner.

Surely, If you throw politics and personal feelings aside....you can see how ridiculous that would be.

 

[boss415]

People are having trouble grasping this. I'm not paying a guy a thousand that I beat by 10 miles over the course of the entire season because he has a good 2 month stretch.

Look at this logic:

vit wins 13k over the season

mich loses 59k over the season

mich wins 2 month stretch by a dollar. I owe mich 1,000 and he's the winner.

Surely, If you throw politics and personal feelings aside....you can see how ridiculous that would be.

Then the braves should be a good team second half right ? Logic right ?

 

[vitterd]

Then the braves should be a good team second half right ? Logic right ?

Oh my god.....people are this dumb. Comparing a sports team results to a sports gambler results might be the dumbest thing I've seen here.....ever.

 

[Ricboff]

fair enough...


all a gamble. 'math'? lol ....you are using historical data in the hope it aids you going forward,.................... you are banking on the expertise of the individual . All things being equal. Ain't cards

why r we using historical data for independent acts ?


tic toc tic toc tic toc ..ph d statisticians kindly chime in .. .......

 

[boss415]

Oh my god.....people are this dumb. Comparing a sports team results to a sports gambler results might be the dumbest thing I've seen here.....ever.

Point is what has happened in the past has absolutely no bearing on what will happen in the future . Zero chance you can tell the future. Zero chance any results are going to happen because of past win loss records. You just dont have the confidence and most here can see that.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Oh my god.....people are this dumb. Comparing a sports team results to a sports gambler results might be the dumbest thing I've seen here.....ever.

Well if you think you are the San Fransisco Giants version of baseball capper and he is the Braves version of baseball cappers it should not matter to you what he did the first half vs what you did.

If you are superior to him and not the capping version of Linsanity you should be good to go.

 

[vitterd]

Well if you think you are the San Fransisco version of baseball capper and he is the Braves version of baseball cappers it should not matter to you what he did the first half vs what you did.

If you are superior to him and not the capping version of Linsanity you should be good to go.

I said I am superior to him because I am. But not to the level of +70,000....and that's where it is now. He could beat me in a 60 day stretch and I wil still beat him by a HUGE margin over the season. Simple concept.

 

[festeringZit]

Oh my god.....people are this dumb. Comparing a sports team results to a sports gambler results might be the dumbest thing I've seen here.....ever.

No, the dumbest thing said in this forum is you saying that because Michelangelo has had such a shitty capping year so far in baseball, that that is an ADVANTAGE for him, betting the rest of the seasons games.

Stuuuuuupid.

 

[vitterd]

No, the dumbest thing said in this forum is you saying that because Michelangelo has had such a shitty capping year so far in baseball, that that is an ADVANTAGE for him, betting the rest of the seasons games.

Stuuuuuupid.

Plenty of people disagree with you here.

But your independent event thing is classic comedy.

Its been a day....time to start a new vit thread for you.

 

[Enfuego]

People are having trouble grasping this. I'm not paying a guy a thousand that I beat by 10 miles over the course of the entire season because he has a good 2 month stretch.

Look at this logic:

vit wins 13k over the season

mich loses 59k over the season

mich wins 2 month stretch by a dollar. I owe mich 1,000 and he's the winner.

Surely, If you throw politics and personal feelings aside....you can see how ridiculous that would be.

Who says he'll have a good two month stretch? Sometimes teams/people are just plain shitty and there is no streak to be had.