NCAAF record is 23-18-2 (+$338)
MLB record is 0-3 (-$303)
NBA record is 0-1 (-$100)
NFL record is 0-1 (-$100)
NCAAB record is 0-1 (-$100)
Today’s plays:
[#146] Michigan Money Line (-105)
[#212] MINNESOTA U +3 (EV)
[#216] Mississippi St Money Line (+100)
NCAAB: [#535] GEORGIA +3 (-110)
Enjoy your Saturday.
MLB record is 0-3 (-$303)
NBA record is 0-1 (-$100)
NFL record is 0-1 (-$100)
NCAAB record is 0-1 (-$100)
Today’s plays:
[#146] Michigan Money Line (-105)
[#212] MINNESOTA U +3 (EV)
[#216] Mississippi St Money Line (+100)
NCAAB: [#535] GEORGIA +3 (-110)
Enjoy your Saturday.
Notes on today's games:
NEW ORLEANS at HOUSTON
Saints on a 0-3 ATS run. Saint "D" is allowing 43.3 ppg in their last 3 games (Rob Ryan fired). Saints run: 0-6 ATS 2nd of 2 road games. Saints decent 6-3-1 ATS following their bye week and Saints are 7-1 ATS in game off a Bye week vs opponents off a win. Saints off a road loss: 24-6 ATS
Texans D (#10 defense) only allowing 9.7 ppg in the last 3 games - given up only two touchdowns in their last 14 quarters.
MINNESOTA at ATLANTA
Sharp contrast in ATS styles. Vikings have covered 8 of last 9, Falcons no covers last 6 games
(-43½ pts ATS). Minny is on a 7-1 ATS off a division game and and 19-4 ATS vs non-division opponents. Vikings also 16-6 ATS off a loss. Minny 5-17 ATS away as dogs after Green Bay.
Atlanta has 10 giveaways in its last four games. ATL 7-0 ATS off a home game when facing an opponent off a home game. But, Falcons are 1-9 ATS the past 10 times as chalk.
ST. LOUIS at CINCINNATI
Rams 1-4 ATS away this year. Rams 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] road game in 4 weeks. St. Louis ranks last in passing offense and second-to-last in points per game at 17.9
Bengals 8-1-1 ATS this year. Bengals 16-4-2 last 22 ATS at Paul Brown in reg. season. Bengals are 11-4-2 ATS run as a home favorite. Cincy 31-12-4 ATS vs Non-DIV teams.
TAMPA BAY at INDIANAPOLIS
Lovie 4-1 ATS away this season, 9-3 last 12 ATS as visitor. Bucs 14-3 ATS last 17 November games. Tampa is 13-0 ATS as a road off reaching 28+ points.
The dog has covered all 10 Colt games this year. Colts 0-3 as home chalk this year. But, Indy is 3-0 SU without Luck and have covered 5 of 6. Colts are 27th in total defense and 29th in pass defense. Indy: 12-2 ATS off an away game vs an opponent off an away game. Hasselbeck 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS versus NFC South.
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON
Giants on a 5-0 SU/ATS run in this series (last four by DD margins). Eli 6-1 ATS last seven as visitor. Giants have a +12 turnover ratio. Giants 1-10 ATS vs division team off DD ATS loss. G-Men have a 112-54 point deficit in last 4 division road games.
Redskins are on a 10-21 ATS run as a dog. Redskins since start of 2013 season 11-31 SU & 14-28 ATS. But, Wash 3-2 ATS at home this season. The Redskins are 1-7 ATS as home dogs off a loss of 21 or more points.
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE
Just the 4th time in the past 9 seasons that OAK is listed as an away favorite (3nd time this year, 0-2 SU) - Raiders as a favorite: 6-21 ATS run. Raiders 3-2 ATS away this year. Last 28 Raiders road games: 3-26 SU. Raiders vs. team with losing record: 45-88-2 ATS (since 1993). Oakland is 1-17 SU, 7-11 ATS the last 18 times playing the Eastern Time Zone. Oakland 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss when facing sub .500 opponents. Raiders as a favorite: 6-21 ATS.
Titans 3-2 ATS at Nissan Stadium this year. But, Tenn has lost 8 of 9 SU and is on a 4-14-2 ATS run at home. Not a good dog: Titans 7-17-2 ATS run in dog role. But, Titans 7-2 ATS the last 9 games as host in this series. Titans 5-0 ATS after playing on Thursday when facing sub .500 Non-Div teams.
BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY
De-facto playoff game, loser likely out of W/C. Third straight road game for the Bills.
Dog is 9-2 ATS in Bills games. And KC is 1-6 ATS as a host in this series. Bills 8-1 ATS away off an away game versus an opponent off an away game. Bills after losing on the road: 25-6 ATS their next game.
Chiefs four wins and covers in a row (+86½ pts ATS) and Reid has covered the last 2 seasons against Buffalo. Chiefs are 5-0 run vs AFC East. Kansas City is yielding just 12.1 points per game during its past six games. Chiefs as home favorite: 10-22 ATS
MIAMI at NY JETS
Visiting team has won seven straight meetings (6-1 ATS). Dolphins 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS last seven as series visitor (won 3 straight at NYJ). Miami 181-63 point deficit in their last 6 division road games. Dolphins 32-18-1 ATS as an away dog. Conversely, Ryan Tannehill 7-15 SU/ATS in division games, with 0-6 SU/ATS last six.
Jets on 0-4 ATS run. Jets 3-26 ATS as a home favorite between away games. Ryan Fitzpatrick 14-7 ATS career a division favorite
SAN DIEGO at JACKSONVILLE
Six straight losses for Chargers. The 4[SUP]th[/SUP] time this year San Diego plays at 10am PST (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) Chargers have covered last 2 on the road but on a 5-16 spread losing streak since mid 2014. The Chargers have 18 sacks in their last seven games. Chargers 24-3-1 ATS all-time in games vs. AFC South
Jax favored and in the playoff hunt!? Jags have covered 4 straight and won 3 of 4. NFL home teams off a SU Thursday win are 29-16-1 ATS hosting a team off a loss.
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO
Points differentials of the teams: +120 for Arizona, -113 for San Francisco.
NFL double-digit road favorites: 3-8 ATS run. Double-digit division road favorites off win are 7-12 ATS when facing a team off a loss.
Cards three straight covers vs. 49ers. Arians 28-13-1 ATS in reg. season since arriving with AZ in 2013. Carson Palmer has 11 touchdown passes in his last three games. AZ runs 15-6 ATS away from home and 8 of their last 12 against the NFC West
Six straight wins as series host for 49ers. SF 3-2 SU/ ATS at home this year only allowing 16ppg.
Gabbert is just 4-11 SU/ATS at home as a starter.
PITTSBURGH at SEATTLE
Pitt 4-1-1 ATS last six away games. Tomlin is 8-1 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. Roethlisberger is 19-8 SU and 20-7 ATS as a dog versus teams off a win and 5-1 SU/ATS versus the NFC in that scenario. Steelers playing outside of Eastern Time Zone: 3-10 ATS
No Lynch for Seahawks. Seahawks only 3-6-1 ATS this year (3-8-1 ATS last 12 games) and 1-4 ATS at home. But, Seahawks 29-4 SU, 21-11-1 ATS the past four years at home. Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in the third of three straight home games, including 0-4 ATS the last four when playing non-division teams. Seahawks when playing a second straight home game: 21-6 ATS
NEW ENGLAND at DENVER
Belicheat has won and covered last 4 reg.-season meetings vs. Denver (37-24 avg score), but is 1-5 SU/ATS the last six in Denver. Also, 7-11 ATS last 18 as visitor, and only win since 2000 in Denver came against Tebow in 2011. Pats have allowed 27 & 26 points in each of their last 2 road games.
Only the 5th game out of their last 58 that Denver is an underdog. For Denver, Osweiler was 20-27 for 250 yds and 2 TD’s in his 1st career start last week. Broncos on 18-9 ATS run at home. Broncos are 5-1 SU/ATS as non- division home dogs with a .666 or greater record.
==========
The Bengals & Bills are clearly the strongest trend games. Pitt, Tenn, and Giants moderate after that.
NEW ORLEANS at HOUSTON
Saints on a 0-3 ATS run. Saint "D" is allowing 43.3 ppg in their last 3 games (Rob Ryan fired). Saints run: 0-6 ATS 2nd of 2 road games. Saints decent 6-3-1 ATS following their bye week and Saints are 7-1 ATS in game off a Bye week vs opponents off a win. Saints off a road loss: 24-6 ATS
Texans D (#10 defense) only allowing 9.7 ppg in the last 3 games - given up only two touchdowns in their last 14 quarters.
MINNESOTA at ATLANTA
Sharp contrast in ATS styles. Vikings have covered 8 of last 9, Falcons no covers last 6 games
(-43½ pts ATS). Minny is on a 7-1 ATS off a division game and and 19-4 ATS vs non-division opponents. Vikings also 16-6 ATS off a loss. Minny 5-17 ATS away as dogs after Green Bay.
Atlanta has 10 giveaways in its last four games. ATL 7-0 ATS off a home game when facing an opponent off a home game. But, Falcons are 1-9 ATS the past 10 times as chalk.
ST. LOUIS at CINCINNATI
Rams 1-4 ATS away this year. Rams 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] road game in 4 weeks. St. Louis ranks last in passing offense and second-to-last in points per game at 17.9
Bengals 8-1-1 ATS this year. Bengals 16-4-2 last 22 ATS at Paul Brown in reg. season. Bengals are 11-4-2 ATS run as a home favorite. Cincy 31-12-4 ATS vs Non-DIV teams.
TAMPA BAY at INDIANAPOLIS
Lovie 4-1 ATS away this season, 9-3 last 12 ATS as visitor. Bucs 14-3 ATS last 17 November games. Tampa is 13-0 ATS as a road off reaching 28+ points.
The dog has covered all 10 Colt games this year. Colts 0-3 as home chalk this year. But, Indy is 3-0 SU without Luck and have covered 5 of 6. Colts are 27th in total defense and 29th in pass defense. Indy: 12-2 ATS off an away game vs an opponent off an away game. Hasselbeck 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS versus NFC South.
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON
Giants on a 5-0 SU/ATS run in this series (last four by DD margins). Eli 6-1 ATS last seven as visitor. Giants have a +12 turnover ratio. Giants 1-10 ATS vs division team off DD ATS loss. G-Men have a 112-54 point deficit in last 4 division road games.
Redskins are on a 10-21 ATS run as a dog. Redskins since start of 2013 season 11-31 SU & 14-28 ATS. But, Wash 3-2 ATS at home this season. The Redskins are 1-7 ATS as home dogs off a loss of 21 or more points.
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE
Just the 4th time in the past 9 seasons that OAK is listed as an away favorite (3nd time this year, 0-2 SU) - Raiders as a favorite: 6-21 ATS run. Raiders 3-2 ATS away this year. Last 28 Raiders road games: 3-26 SU. Raiders vs. team with losing record: 45-88-2 ATS (since 1993). Oakland is 1-17 SU, 7-11 ATS the last 18 times playing the Eastern Time Zone. Oakland 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss when facing sub .500 opponents. Raiders as a favorite: 6-21 ATS.
Titans 3-2 ATS at Nissan Stadium this year. But, Tenn has lost 8 of 9 SU and is on a 4-14-2 ATS run at home. Not a good dog: Titans 7-17-2 ATS run in dog role. But, Titans 7-2 ATS the last 9 games as host in this series. Titans 5-0 ATS after playing on Thursday when facing sub .500 Non-Div teams.
BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY
De-facto playoff game, loser likely out of W/C. Third straight road game for the Bills.
Dog is 9-2 ATS in Bills games. And KC is 1-6 ATS as a host in this series. Bills 8-1 ATS away off an away game versus an opponent off an away game. Bills after losing on the road: 25-6 ATS their next game.
Chiefs four wins and covers in a row (+86½ pts ATS) and Reid has covered the last 2 seasons against Buffalo. Chiefs are 5-0 run vs AFC East. Kansas City is yielding just 12.1 points per game during its past six games. Chiefs as home favorite: 10-22 ATS
MIAMI at NY JETS
Visiting team has won seven straight meetings (6-1 ATS). Dolphins 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS last seven as series visitor (won 3 straight at NYJ). Miami 181-63 point deficit in their last 6 division road games. Dolphins 32-18-1 ATS as an away dog. Conversely, Ryan Tannehill 7-15 SU/ATS in division games, with 0-6 SU/ATS last six.
Jets on 0-4 ATS run. Jets 3-26 ATS as a home favorite between away games. Ryan Fitzpatrick 14-7 ATS career a division favorite
SAN DIEGO at JACKSONVILLE
Six straight losses for Chargers. The 4[SUP]th[/SUP] time this year San Diego plays at 10am PST (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) Chargers have covered last 2 on the road but on a 5-16 spread losing streak since mid 2014. The Chargers have 18 sacks in their last seven games. Chargers 24-3-1 ATS all-time in games vs. AFC South
Jax favored and in the playoff hunt!? Jags have covered 4 straight and won 3 of 4. NFL home teams off a SU Thursday win are 29-16-1 ATS hosting a team off a loss.
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO
Points differentials of the teams: +120 for Arizona, -113 for San Francisco.
NFL double-digit road favorites: 3-8 ATS run. Double-digit division road favorites off win are 7-12 ATS when facing a team off a loss.
Cards three straight covers vs. 49ers. Arians 28-13-1 ATS in reg. season since arriving with AZ in 2013. Carson Palmer has 11 touchdown passes in his last three games. AZ runs 15-6 ATS away from home and 8 of their last 12 against the NFC West
Six straight wins as series host for 49ers. SF 3-2 SU/ ATS at home this year only allowing 16ppg.
Gabbert is just 4-11 SU/ATS at home as a starter.
PITTSBURGH at SEATTLE
Pitt 4-1-1 ATS last six away games. Tomlin is 8-1 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. Roethlisberger is 19-8 SU and 20-7 ATS as a dog versus teams off a win and 5-1 SU/ATS versus the NFC in that scenario. Steelers playing outside of Eastern Time Zone: 3-10 ATS
No Lynch for Seahawks. Seahawks only 3-6-1 ATS this year (3-8-1 ATS last 12 games) and 1-4 ATS at home. But, Seahawks 29-4 SU, 21-11-1 ATS the past four years at home. Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in the third of three straight home games, including 0-4 ATS the last four when playing non-division teams. Seahawks when playing a second straight home game: 21-6 ATS
NEW ENGLAND at DENVER
Belicheat has won and covered last 4 reg.-season meetings vs. Denver (37-24 avg score), but is 1-5 SU/ATS the last six in Denver. Also, 7-11 ATS last 18 as visitor, and only win since 2000 in Denver came against Tebow in 2011. Pats have allowed 27 & 26 points in each of their last 2 road games.
Only the 5th game out of their last 58 that Denver is an underdog. For Denver, Osweiler was 20-27 for 250 yds and 2 TD’s in his 1st career start last week. Broncos on 18-9 ATS run at home. Broncos are 5-1 SU/ATS as non- division home dogs with a .666 or greater record.
==========
The Bengals & Bills are clearly the strongest trend games. Pitt, Tenn, and Giants moderate after that.
NFL Week 12 since 2001:
HF 67
HD 31
RF 42
RD 73
Div HF 16
Div HD 10
Div RF 10
Div RD 35
//
It kinda surprises me that noone ever comes into my threads and talks about these NFL Week x specific observations I research. So I'm gonna point out how to use this stuff to your benefit.
Week 12 brings us some very revealing info.
Division Road Dogs overwhelm Division Home Favs by 35-16. And the corollary, non Division Home Favs beat non Division Road Dogs 51-38. The other stat that I can deduce from the numbers is that non Division Road Favs beat non Division Home Dogs by a 32-21 margin.
Jeez, there have been some big line changes overnight. Hate when they move against me. If I put a "?" where the line should be it's because I'm waiting on the line movement.
///
Sunday:
Houston -3 -108 (vs NOr)
Week 12 non Div HF are 51-38.
Career game coming up for DeAndre Hopkins. The Aints ain't got no secondary. And Drew Breese is running up against a Houston D buzzsaw just as the teeth are getting sharp. Blowout in Texas.
HF 67
HD 31
RF 42
RD 73
Div HF 16
Div HD 10
Div RF 10
Div RD 35
//
It kinda surprises me that noone ever comes into my threads and talks about these NFL Week x specific observations I research. So I'm gonna point out how to use this stuff to your benefit.
Week 12 brings us some very revealing info.
Division Road Dogs overwhelm Division Home Favs by 35-16. And the corollary, non Division Home Favs beat non Division Road Dogs 51-38. The other stat that I can deduce from the numbers is that non Division Road Favs beat non Division Home Dogs by a 32-21 margin.
Jeez, there have been some big line changes overnight. Hate when they move against me. If I put a "?" where the line should be it's because I'm waiting on the line movement.
///
Sunday:
Houston -3 -108 (vs NOr)
Week 12 non Div HF are 51-38.
Career game coming up for DeAndre Hopkins. The Aints ain't got no secondary. And Drew Breese is running up against a Houston D buzzsaw just as the teeth are getting sharp. Blowout in Texas.
Atlanta (+/- ?) (vs Minny)
An old Taxi system says to play against any team off a long winning streak if they lose outright, then their next game is on the road (Minny). Kenman helped me with the numbers last week when this same angle came up against Cincy. The system missed by a point and a half last week as Arizona beat Cincy 33-30 but failed to cover the -4' spread. That leaves the record for this system since 2005 at 17-7-2. Try again. Also Week 12 (since 2001) non Div HF are 51-38 if Atlanta does indeed go off as the favorite.
An old Taxi system says to play against any team off a long winning streak if they lose outright, then their next game is on the road (Minny). Kenman helped me with the numbers last week when this same angle came up against Cincy. The system missed by a point and a half last week as Arizona beat Cincy 33-30 but failed to cover the -4' spread. That leaves the record for this system since 2005 at 17-7-2. Try again. Also Week 12 (since 2001) non Div HF are 51-38 if Atlanta does indeed go off as the favorite.
Indianapolis -3 +100 (vs TBy)
So Tampa has won 3 of 4; 4 of 6. Their Defense has been turning the ball over and Jamies Winston is learning to play in the Bigs. Indy? They've only covered 5 of their last 6 including covers vs New England, Carolina, and Denver. Gimme the non Div Home Fav (51-38).
So Tampa has won 3 of 4; 4 of 6. Their Defense has been turning the ball over and Jamies Winston is learning to play in the Bigs. Indy? They've only covered 5 of their last 6 including covers vs New England, Carolina, and Denver. Gimme the non Div Home Fav (51-38).
Washington +2 -105 (vs NYG)
So Washington got popped by Carolina, 16-44. Three weeks ago they lost to New England. Around those games they beat a sneaky good Tampa team, and smudged No Defense New Orleans, 47-14. I'll take my chances with the revenging Div Home Dog (Gints beat Wash 32-21 in Week 3) who is now out of the wake of the NFL's two undefeated teams. The winner here gets the Division edge as both are Div .500 going in. The Skins are 4-1 at home; Gmen 2-3 Road.
So Washington got popped by Carolina, 16-44. Three weeks ago they lost to New England. Around those games they beat a sneaky good Tampa team, and smudged No Defense New Orleans, 47-14. I'll take my chances with the revenging Div Home Dog (Gints beat Wash 32-21 in Week 3) who is now out of the wake of the NFL's two undefeated teams. The winner here gets the Division edge as both are Div .500 going in. The Skins are 4-1 at home; Gmen 2-3 Road.
Add:
Kansas City -4 -105 (vs Buffs)
This will be the Beefalos third straight road game. I like to give an average team a quota of one win in that situation. Buff already filled that quota when they beat the Jets. Buff is also coming off three consecutive Divisional games. I'm expecting a letdown like when in Weeks 2 and 3 they had back to back games against New England and Miami and then lost outright to the Giants as 6 point favs. Kansas City has been quietly getting it together with four straight wins, four straight covers, and six straight where they haven't allowed an opponent to reach 20 points. Their run has begun. Buffalo meat for lunch in Kansas City today. Non Division Home Favs are 51-38 ATS in Week 12.
Kansas City -4 -105 (vs Buffs)
This will be the Beefalos third straight road game. I like to give an average team a quota of one win in that situation. Buff already filled that quota when they beat the Jets. Buff is also coming off three consecutive Divisional games. I'm expecting a letdown like when in Weeks 2 and 3 they had back to back games against New England and Miami and then lost outright to the Giants as 6 point favs. Kansas City has been quietly getting it together with four straight wins, four straight covers, and six straight where they haven't allowed an opponent to reach 20 points. Their run has begun. Buffalo meat for lunch in Kansas City today. Non Division Home Favs are 51-38 ATS in Week 12.
