What you need to know about Conference Cship Games:
Dogs are 14-5 ATS on Saturday the last 4 years in all games
In the ACC-BIG TEN-SEC-USA Conferences Dogs are 12-4 the last 4 years and OVERS are 11-5
Dogs are 3-1 in PAC 12 last 4 years / UNDER is 3-0 last 3 years
6 straight SEC Cship games have gone OVER
In the Big Ten Cship the last 4 years betting DOG + OVER gave you 8 out of 8 Winning Tickets
Dogs are 14-5 ATS on Saturday the last 4 years in all games
In the ACC-BIG TEN-SEC-USA Conferences Dogs are 12-4 the last 4 years and OVERS are 11-5
Dogs are 3-1 in PAC 12 last 4 years / UNDER is 3-0 last 3 years
6 straight SEC Cship games have gone OVER
In the Big Ten Cship the last 4 years betting DOG + OVER gave you 8 out of 8 Winning Tickets
Thursday had to be the worst beat of my gambling career. Certainly one of them.
Getting points (+2'), up 20-0 at the half. Last play of the game was a completed forward pass of 20 yards from Green Bay's 20. Then a reverse lateral of -16 yards. Then another lateral back to QB, Rogers, again at his 24 yd line. He can't throw another forward pass. There's nobody behind him to lateral to. All Detroit has to do is tackle the helpless soul and the game is over, or Rogers must run 76 yds for the winning TD. But the D lineman's hand glances off Roger's facemask as he reaches for Rogers, before pulling him down by the shoulder. Not the way the ref saw it who calls a bogus facemask. 15 yards and replay of the last play of the game. So Rogers gets to set up from the 35 yd line now. Detroit makes mistake number two (the bogus facemask being number one) by rushing only three guys, who Rogers sidesteps and in so doing goes right up to the line of scrimmage, winds up and uncorks from his ankle a 66 yd pass that comes down in the front of the endzone where all those eight Detroit guys were who did not rush Rogers. Of course they all are trying to cover GB's receivers when they should have been looking up for the 66 yd rainbow that's about to land. Nope. None of them are in front of or to the side of big TE Togers who jumps and gathers the ball in unimpeded. TD. Game over. Incredible. What a friggin' loss.
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YTD 62-44-3 +1651
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Sunday:
Minnesota +1 +100 (vs Seattle)
So we have a team here who no one believes in. How do I know that no one believes? Because they are 17-4 ATS over their last 21 games. 8-1 ATS as dogs in that stretch. Teddy Bridgewater has 8 TDs in 11 games this year. That stat right there is why no one believes. But I'm sticking by the ATS stats. They are the King Stat in our game. Oh yea. One other stat in Minny's favor. Since 2001, Week 13 non Div Home Dogs are 23-11 ATS.
Getting points (+2'), up 20-0 at the half. Last play of the game was a completed forward pass of 20 yards from Green Bay's 20. Then a reverse lateral of -16 yards. Then another lateral back to QB, Rogers, again at his 24 yd line. He can't throw another forward pass. There's nobody behind him to lateral to. All Detroit has to do is tackle the helpless soul and the game is over, or Rogers must run 76 yds for the winning TD. But the D lineman's hand glances off Roger's facemask as he reaches for Rogers, before pulling him down by the shoulder. Not the way the ref saw it who calls a bogus facemask. 15 yards and replay of the last play of the game. So Rogers gets to set up from the 35 yd line now. Detroit makes mistake number two (the bogus facemask being number one) by rushing only three guys, who Rogers sidesteps and in so doing goes right up to the line of scrimmage, winds up and uncorks from his ankle a 66 yd pass that comes down in the front of the endzone where all those eight Detroit guys were who did not rush Rogers. Of course they all are trying to cover GB's receivers when they should have been looking up for the 66 yd rainbow that's about to land. Nope. None of them are in front of or to the side of big TE Togers who jumps and gathers the ball in unimpeded. TD. Game over. Incredible. What a friggin' loss.
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YTD 62-44-3 +1651
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Sunday:
Minnesota +1 +100 (vs Seattle)
So we have a team here who no one believes in. How do I know that no one believes? Because they are 17-4 ATS over their last 21 games. 8-1 ATS as dogs in that stretch. Teddy Bridgewater has 8 TDs in 11 games this year. That stat right there is why no one believes. But I'm sticking by the ATS stats. They are the King Stat in our game. Oh yea. One other stat in Minny's favor. Since 2001, Week 13 non Div Home Dogs are 23-11 ATS.
Notes on today's games --
SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO
49ers 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS away this year and1-6 vs. number last seven away (7-game road-losing streak). SF outscored 35-14 on avg on the road (surrendered 43, 47, 30, 27 and 29 points during its road matchups) this year and on a bad 5-12 ATS run.
Bears now 5-1-2 ATS last eight on board. Fox is 14-4 ATS off a division game vs an opponent off pair of SU losses. But, Bears have not covered as a chalk of >5½ pts since 2012. Bears allowing only 13 ppg in their last 4 games. Jay Cutler 13-20 SU and 9-24 ATS career mark in games during December. Bears have covered only 5 of their last 23 at home.
CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND
Bengals have outscored the Browns 61-10 in their previous 2 meetings.
Cincy is 9-1-1 ATS this season and 13-4-1 ATS last 18 overall in regular season. Bengals are 0-10 ATS as a road favorite of 5+ pts vs an opponent off 2+ losses. Cincinnati has permitted only one rushing touchdown in its last five games. Marvin Lewis has lost and failed to cover 2 of last 3 at Browns
The Austin Davis era in Cleveland begins! Browns on 0-5 SU/ATS run (153-72 pt deficit). Browns 3-23 SU during the final five games of the season the last five years, including 0-13 the last thirteen times. The Browns are 3-0 ATS as a dog playing after MNF. NFL home underdogs of 8+ are 34-15 ATS. Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 16 of last 46
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE
Jags are 6-1 ATS their last seven away and have covered four in a row this season. Jags 8-1-1 ATS last ten in this series. Jags 10-1 ATS as division road dogs vs opponents off a non-division home game.
Titans have lost eleven in row SU at home, but 3-3 ATS at home this year. Titans are on a 0-7 ATS run as chalks. Also, Titans 4-15-2 ATS run at home.
HOUSTON at BUFFALO
Houston has won and covered last three meetings in series. The dog is 9-3-2 ATS in Buffalo games. Houston’s defense allowing only 8.9 ppg last four games and on 4-0 SU/ATS run. Houston run: 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS from Game Eight out.
Bills 2-3 ATS at Ralph Wilson Stadium this season and 4-7 ATS last 11 as host. But, Bills are 16-0 ATS at home, when off a SU/ATS road loss vs a NON-DIV opponent off a SU/ATS win. Bills after losing on the road are 25-7 ATS the next game.
BALTIMORE at MIAMI
Ravens on 2-11-1 ATS skid last 14 in regular season. However, Harbaugh is 11-2 ATS as road vs team off a road loss and these pigeons are 11-3 ATS as road dogs after facing Cleveland. Road team in Miami games 68-50 ATS.
Fins just 1-5 ATS last six as host and 6-17 ATS as a NON-DIV home favorite. Miami 0-8 ATS at home after facing the Jets and 0-5 ATS in this series. Dolphins as a home favorite: 13-40 ATS
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS
Panthers 9-2 ATS this year and 11-3-1 ATS run since late 2014. Carolina 12-2 ATS last 14 at Superdome. Carolina 13-7 ATS run against NFC South
only 3rd time since 1999 that Saints are a home underdog by 6+ Saints 2-8 ATS last 10 as host. Saints on 0-3-1 ATS slide (--61½ pts) and 6-12-1 ATS run. However, Sean Payton is 8-2 SU/10-0 ATS vs undefeated teams including 7-0 SU/ATS at home. Brees is 3-0 ATS as a dog of 7+ during December and 4-1 SU/ATS off a loss of more than 17 points during the final month of the season
SEATTLE at MINNESOTA
Seahawks 1-3-1 ATS away this season (only cover at SF) and just 4-6-1 ATS in 2015. But are 9-0-1 ATS as dogs off SU/ATS win. The Seahawks have rushed for 100 yards in each of their last 22 games. Seattle 22-4 SU in November and December since 2012 (in December: 14-2-1 ATS). Defending Super Bowl losers are 3-15-2 ATS as road pick or favorites when facing a winning NON-DIV opponent. Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 32-19-2 ATS.
Vikings have covered 9 of last 10 (17-4 ATS run) and are 20-4 ATS vs non-division opponents. Vikings in December on 11-2 ATS run.
ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS
Carson Palmer has won 22 of 26 starts. Arians 13-5 ATS last 18 as reg.-season visitor and 28-14-1 ATS in regular-season games since taking over Cards. Ariens 7-2 ATS off SU win vs <.500 opponent. But, Cards are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after facing San Francisco.
Rams on 0-4 ATS run. Gurley has rushed for just 130 yards in his last three games, averaging 2.8 YPC. Division hosts in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] of three straight regular season home games, off a loss of 20 or more points, are 8-3-1 SU and 9-3 ATS since 1993. Last 14 times Rams home dogs by 6+ - only 2 ATS losses.
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY
Falcons on 0-7 ATS run. However, the dog is 15-3 ATS in Atlanta games and the visitor is 18-9 ATS in Tampa games. NFL road dogs off three SU favorite losses in a row are 6-0 ATS since 2002.
Bucs 5-2 ATS run but 4-9 ATS at Raymond James Stadium since last season. Tampa 16-34-2 ATS at home.
NY JETS at NY GIANTS
Jets no covers four of last five this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just 11-16-3 ATS during December. The Jets are 5-15 ATS after facing Miami when taking on a team off a SU/ATS loss
Eli has covered four of last five this season and is 10-5 ATS last 15 on board. Giants 5-0 SU/ATS in this series. Giants are 0-7 ATS as December hosts off SU/ATS loss. Giants are 17-3 ATS in games after facing Washington. Giants vs. a team with a winning record: 3-16 SU/6-13 ATS.
DENVER at SAN DIEGO
Denver is 14-0 SU run in division road games. Denver has won and covered four straight at Qualcomm. Den 9-3 ATS this year. Broncos 9-1 ATS as a division road favorite.
Bolts 4-7 ATS this season, 6-16 vs. number last 21. San Diego 0-5 ATS run at home. San Diego 2-12 ATS run as division host. Rivers 31-9 SU career in games during the month of December.
KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND
Chiefs have won and covered five straight this season and 15-5 ATS as series visitor since Raiders returned to Oakland in 1995. KC 12-5 ATS as an away favorite. KC has only lost SU 7 times in their last 23 road games.
The dog is 7-3 ATS in Oakland games. Oakland is on a 8-3 SU/ATS run vs KC when they are a dog in the series. Oakland at home 9-17 ATS last 26.
PHILADELPHIA at NEW ENGLAND
Chip Kelly 5-10 ATS last 15 on board. Philly has lost its last two games by scores of 45-17 and 45-14 - allowing 951 yards! Eagle "D" has allowed 27 or more points in 4-of-their-last-5 games.
Pats 7-2-2 ATS last 11 as host. NE 11-6-1 ATS vs NON-DIV teams. Pats are on a 7-0 ATS run off a SU loss. Pats at home in regular season when not laying Double Digits: 28-8 ATS
INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH
Indy 6-1 ATS last seven this season, including three straight covers as visitor. QB Matt Hasselbeck is now 4-0 SU for Indy. Colts in December: 12-5-1 ATS run.
Pitt on 1-4 ATS run. Steelers 2-15 ATS when favored the week before playing Cincinnati.
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The strongest trend games are Jax, Ravens, New England and Denver. Atlanta & Indy moderate. I'm stunned by this Pittsburgh line.
SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO
49ers 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS away this year and1-6 vs. number last seven away (7-game road-losing streak). SF outscored 35-14 on avg on the road (surrendered 43, 47, 30, 27 and 29 points during its road matchups) this year and on a bad 5-12 ATS run.
Bears now 5-1-2 ATS last eight on board. Fox is 14-4 ATS off a division game vs an opponent off pair of SU losses. But, Bears have not covered as a chalk of >5½ pts since 2012. Bears allowing only 13 ppg in their last 4 games. Jay Cutler 13-20 SU and 9-24 ATS career mark in games during December. Bears have covered only 5 of their last 23 at home.
CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND
Bengals have outscored the Browns 61-10 in their previous 2 meetings.
Cincy is 9-1-1 ATS this season and 13-4-1 ATS last 18 overall in regular season. Bengals are 0-10 ATS as a road favorite of 5+ pts vs an opponent off 2+ losses. Cincinnati has permitted only one rushing touchdown in its last five games. Marvin Lewis has lost and failed to cover 2 of last 3 at Browns
The Austin Davis era in Cleveland begins! Browns on 0-5 SU/ATS run (153-72 pt deficit). Browns 3-23 SU during the final five games of the season the last five years, including 0-13 the last thirteen times. The Browns are 3-0 ATS as a dog playing after MNF. NFL home underdogs of 8+ are 34-15 ATS. Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 16 of last 46
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE
Jags are 6-1 ATS their last seven away and have covered four in a row this season. Jags 8-1-1 ATS last ten in this series. Jags 10-1 ATS as division road dogs vs opponents off a non-division home game.
Titans have lost eleven in row SU at home, but 3-3 ATS at home this year. Titans are on a 0-7 ATS run as chalks. Also, Titans 4-15-2 ATS run at home.
HOUSTON at BUFFALO
Houston has won and covered last three meetings in series. The dog is 9-3-2 ATS in Buffalo games. Houston’s defense allowing only 8.9 ppg last four games and on 4-0 SU/ATS run. Houston run: 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS from Game Eight out.
Bills 2-3 ATS at Ralph Wilson Stadium this season and 4-7 ATS last 11 as host. But, Bills are 16-0 ATS at home, when off a SU/ATS road loss vs a NON-DIV opponent off a SU/ATS win. Bills after losing on the road are 25-7 ATS the next game.
BALTIMORE at MIAMI
Ravens on 2-11-1 ATS skid last 14 in regular season. However, Harbaugh is 11-2 ATS as road vs team off a road loss and these pigeons are 11-3 ATS as road dogs after facing Cleveland. Road team in Miami games 68-50 ATS.
Fins just 1-5 ATS last six as host and 6-17 ATS as a NON-DIV home favorite. Miami 0-8 ATS at home after facing the Jets and 0-5 ATS in this series. Dolphins as a home favorite: 13-40 ATS
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS
Panthers 9-2 ATS this year and 11-3-1 ATS run since late 2014. Carolina 12-2 ATS last 14 at Superdome. Carolina 13-7 ATS run against NFC South
only 3rd time since 1999 that Saints are a home underdog by 6+ Saints 2-8 ATS last 10 as host. Saints on 0-3-1 ATS slide (--61½ pts) and 6-12-1 ATS run. However, Sean Payton is 8-2 SU/10-0 ATS vs undefeated teams including 7-0 SU/ATS at home. Brees is 3-0 ATS as a dog of 7+ during December and 4-1 SU/ATS off a loss of more than 17 points during the final month of the season
SEATTLE at MINNESOTA
Seahawks 1-3-1 ATS away this season (only cover at SF) and just 4-6-1 ATS in 2015. But are 9-0-1 ATS as dogs off SU/ATS win. The Seahawks have rushed for 100 yards in each of their last 22 games. Seattle 22-4 SU in November and December since 2012 (in December: 14-2-1 ATS). Defending Super Bowl losers are 3-15-2 ATS as road pick or favorites when facing a winning NON-DIV opponent. Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 32-19-2 ATS.
Vikings have covered 9 of last 10 (17-4 ATS run) and are 20-4 ATS vs non-division opponents. Vikings in December on 11-2 ATS run.
ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS
Carson Palmer has won 22 of 26 starts. Arians 13-5 ATS last 18 as reg.-season visitor and 28-14-1 ATS in regular-season games since taking over Cards. Ariens 7-2 ATS off SU win vs <.500 opponent. But, Cards are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after facing San Francisco.
Rams on 0-4 ATS run. Gurley has rushed for just 130 yards in his last three games, averaging 2.8 YPC. Division hosts in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] of three straight regular season home games, off a loss of 20 or more points, are 8-3-1 SU and 9-3 ATS since 1993. Last 14 times Rams home dogs by 6+ - only 2 ATS losses.
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY
Falcons on 0-7 ATS run. However, the dog is 15-3 ATS in Atlanta games and the visitor is 18-9 ATS in Tampa games. NFL road dogs off three SU favorite losses in a row are 6-0 ATS since 2002.
Bucs 5-2 ATS run but 4-9 ATS at Raymond James Stadium since last season. Tampa 16-34-2 ATS at home.
NY JETS at NY GIANTS
Jets no covers four of last five this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just 11-16-3 ATS during December. The Jets are 5-15 ATS after facing Miami when taking on a team off a SU/ATS loss
Eli has covered four of last five this season and is 10-5 ATS last 15 on board. Giants 5-0 SU/ATS in this series. Giants are 0-7 ATS as December hosts off SU/ATS loss. Giants are 17-3 ATS in games after facing Washington. Giants vs. a team with a winning record: 3-16 SU/6-13 ATS.
DENVER at SAN DIEGO
Denver is 14-0 SU run in division road games. Denver has won and covered four straight at Qualcomm. Den 9-3 ATS this year. Broncos 9-1 ATS as a division road favorite.
Bolts 4-7 ATS this season, 6-16 vs. number last 21. San Diego 0-5 ATS run at home. San Diego 2-12 ATS run as division host. Rivers 31-9 SU career in games during the month of December.
KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND
Chiefs have won and covered five straight this season and 15-5 ATS as series visitor since Raiders returned to Oakland in 1995. KC 12-5 ATS as an away favorite. KC has only lost SU 7 times in their last 23 road games.
The dog is 7-3 ATS in Oakland games. Oakland is on a 8-3 SU/ATS run vs KC when they are a dog in the series. Oakland at home 9-17 ATS last 26.
PHILADELPHIA at NEW ENGLAND
Chip Kelly 5-10 ATS last 15 on board. Philly has lost its last two games by scores of 45-17 and 45-14 - allowing 951 yards! Eagle "D" has allowed 27 or more points in 4-of-their-last-5 games.
Pats 7-2-2 ATS last 11 as host. NE 11-6-1 ATS vs NON-DIV teams. Pats are on a 7-0 ATS run off a SU loss. Pats at home in regular season when not laying Double Digits: 28-8 ATS
INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH
Indy 6-1 ATS last seven this season, including three straight covers as visitor. QB Matt Hasselbeck is now 4-0 SU for Indy. Colts in December: 12-5-1 ATS run.
Pitt on 1-4 ATS run. Steelers 2-15 ATS when favored the week before playing Cincinnati.
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The strongest trend games are Jax, Ravens, New England and Denver. Atlanta & Indy moderate. I'm stunned by this Pittsburgh line.
Add:
Buffalo -3' +106 (vs Hou)
So which NFL QB has the fewest interceptions thrown over the past 7 games? Tom Brady? Nope. Aaron Rogers? Nope. Would you believe Tyrod Taylor? Nope. Well you better, 'cause he has one pick over his past 7 starts. Le Sean McCoy is finally healed. And the Bills get home from a three game road trip that wound through New York, New England, and Kansas City. Methinks that the emerging Texans will today slip on the ice on the Eastern shore of Lake Erie that is Buffalo.
Buffalo -3' +106 (vs Hou)
So which NFL QB has the fewest interceptions thrown over the past 7 games? Tom Brady? Nope. Aaron Rogers? Nope. Would you believe Tyrod Taylor? Nope. Well you better, 'cause he has one pick over his past 7 starts. Le Sean McCoy is finally healed. And the Bills get home from a three game road trip that wound through New York, New England, and Kansas City. Methinks that the emerging Texans will today slip on the ice on the Eastern shore of Lake Erie that is Buffalo.
Add:
Cleveland +8 -108 (vs Cincy)
Damn. Coulda had +10 two hours ago.
Last year these teams split, 24-3; 30-0. A month ago Cincy thumped the Brownies on Monday night, 31-10. My guess is that those Brownies want to return the stain to Bengal panties. Austin Davis? He must suck, right? I mean the third string QB on the lowly Browns. Last year, Austin Davis quarterbacked the St Louis Rams for 10 games. He got an 85.1 QB rating for his efforts. Nothing to write home about, right? Until you consider the team he quarterbacked. Even with rookie sensation, Gurley, St Louis has by far the most pathetic offense in the NFL this year. They had the same motley crew of receivers last year and no Gurley to keep the safeties from coming up. 85.1 isn't bad with that putrid offense. When Hoyer went down last Monday, Davis mopped up by driving the Browns for the tying score in 10 throws. Maybe he can catch the Bengals in letdown mode before taking on the other Division tough guy, Pittsburgh, next week.
Cleveland +8 -108 (vs Cincy)
Damn. Coulda had +10 two hours ago.
Last year these teams split, 24-3; 30-0. A month ago Cincy thumped the Brownies on Monday night, 31-10. My guess is that those Brownies want to return the stain to Bengal panties. Austin Davis? He must suck, right? I mean the third string QB on the lowly Browns. Last year, Austin Davis quarterbacked the St Louis Rams for 10 games. He got an 85.1 QB rating for his efforts. Nothing to write home about, right? Until you consider the team he quarterbacked. Even with rookie sensation, Gurley, St Louis has by far the most pathetic offense in the NFL this year. They had the same motley crew of receivers last year and no Gurley to keep the safeties from coming up. 85.1 isn't bad with that putrid offense. When Hoyer went down last Monday, Davis mopped up by driving the Browns for the tying score in 10 throws. Maybe he can catch the Bengals in letdown mode before taking on the other Division tough guy, Pittsburgh, next week.
Add:
Carolina -6' -102 (@ NOr)
Another team that gets much less respect than they deserve. 11-0 going into the Super Scary Dome. No it isn't. The Aints are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Home Dome appearances. Katrina ain't showing up today to get the game cancelled. Since 2001, Week 13 Division Road Favs are 22-17 ATS. Carolina in a romp.
Carolina -6' -102 (@ NOr)
Another team that gets much less respect than they deserve. 11-0 going into the Super Scary Dome. No it isn't. The Aints are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Home Dome appearances. Katrina ain't showing up today to get the game cancelled. Since 2001, Week 13 Division Road Favs are 22-17 ATS. Carolina in a romp.
