It's way more stunning than that Ace, although I've pretty much ignored it. The Favorites in the MLB Playoffs of -115 or higher have only had one profitable year over the past dozen. I don't have exact money figures but my count is accurate. Based on Closing Lines, Postseason MLB Favorites of -115 or higher are 118-127 the last 245 games. That has to be a large profit blindly betting Dogs. In the 2012 Postseason the Favorites went 17-10. They've blown money every other year.
If anyone cares not counting Pushes I have OVERS 124 and UNDERS 135 over many years.
Terrible day yesterday with no winners. Just missed with #6 Battleback John at 14-1 in last race that would have given me a profitable day. He paid $9.00/6.00 for second so wasn't a total loss. Had one other second place finisher(the shipper from Peru)that paid $4.40/3.40. A few I like today at Keeneland along with my NFL plays...
Race 4...#2 Cherry Wine 10-1 ML Tried the dirt last out when adding Lasix and showed improvement. Goes back to his preferred surface, the turf, today with 2nd time Lasix.
Race 6...#9 Congrats Given 12-1 ML Connections thought enough of this 2 year old colt to try him in a Grade 3 stakes at Arlington in his first race 2 months but he got bumped at the break and never got going in that race. Came back last month at Churchill and ran 3rd in a straight Maiden race behind the classy colt Bandwidth. Should move forward today with blinkers added at a nice price.
Race 8...#6 Eagle 7-2 ML Had a very successful 2 year old campaign last year with 2 wins(one over the Keeneland track) a second and a third from 4 starts. Ran 3rd in Grade 2 behind El Kabeir last November and came back as the favorite in Grade 3 Lecomte in first start as a 3 year old losing to International Star. Went to the sidelines after that race and came back last month to run 6th in a sprint at Churchill. Stretches back out now to his preferred distance(1 1/16 miles) for his second start off layoff.
Race 9...#12 Purim's Danawa 12-1 won at first asking in style last month at Churchill going 6 furlongs on the dirt. By Purim, this filly is bred to go long on the turf, so the switch to the turf and stretching out to a route should suite her fine.
NFL plays...
Baltimore -6
Atlanta -7
Oakland +4
YTD results...
Horses ROI(after 30 races)...Win $2.59, Place $2.31, Show $1.86
exotic plays -$18
NFL 2-1
good luck to everyone today...
Race 4...#2 Cherry Wine 10-1 ML Tried the dirt last out when adding Lasix and showed improvement. Goes back to his preferred surface, the turf, today with 2nd time Lasix.
Race 6...#9 Congrats Given 12-1 ML Connections thought enough of this 2 year old colt to try him in a Grade 3 stakes at Arlington in his first race 2 months but he got bumped at the break and never got going in that race. Came back last month at Churchill and ran 3rd in a straight Maiden race behind the classy colt Bandwidth. Should move forward today with blinkers added at a nice price.
Race 8...#6 Eagle 7-2 ML Had a very successful 2 year old campaign last year with 2 wins(one over the Keeneland track) a second and a third from 4 starts. Ran 3rd in Grade 2 behind El Kabeir last November and came back as the favorite in Grade 3 Lecomte in first start as a 3 year old losing to International Star. Went to the sidelines after that race and came back last month to run 6th in a sprint at Churchill. Stretches back out now to his preferred distance(1 1/16 miles) for his second start off layoff.
Race 9...#12 Purim's Danawa 12-1 won at first asking in style last month at Churchill going 6 furlongs on the dirt. By Purim, this filly is bred to go long on the turf, so the switch to the turf and stretching out to a route should suite her fine.
NFL plays...
Baltimore -6
Atlanta -7
Oakland +4
YTD results...
Horses ROI(after 30 races)...Win $2.59, Place $2.31, Show $1.86
exotic plays -$18
NFL 2-1
good luck to everyone today...
1. What an amazing coach Jim Harbaugh is.
2. What an bad loss for Oregon. Also, there is no home field advantage in the Pac 12. Road teams are 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS!
3. I almost took a bad loss when the K. State QB fumbled with :50 left and the ball was bouncing toward the end zone. Fortunate to eek out a profit yesterday.
NCAAF record is 12-6-1 (+$544)
MLB record is 0-3 (-$303)
Notes on today's games:
JACKSONVILLE at TAMPA BAY
-Toilet bowl: Lovie 0-10 SU (2-8 ATS) at home with Bucs & 0-4 as home chalk since last year. Jags just 12-22-1 as dog since Gus Bradley arrived. Visitor is 14-6 ATS in Tampa games. Bucs are 1-4 ATS in this series and on a 0-7 SU run in their game before the bye. Tampa lately at home 15-38 ATS. Winston has more INT’s than TD passes (7/6).
BUFFALO at TENNESSEE
Titans 3-12-2 ATS at home past two seasons. Titans are 0-10 ATS off scoring 28+ points, & 3-14 ATS off a DD SU loss. Bills are 6-13 ATS as road favorite soff a loss vs opponent off a loss. Titans are 14-6 SU and 12-6-2 ATS in games against the Bills including winning 8 of last 9 in this matchup
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
Dog run 9-2-2 ATS in Browns games, as well as 9-2 ATS in Ravens games. Ravens are 1-8 ATS as division home favorites of 4+ while the Browns are 8-1 ATS off a SU loss, & Browns 6-2-1 last 9 as road dog. Teams are 11-25 ATS as home favorites after playing the Steelers under Tomlin. But, Flacco 13-1 SU and 8-5-1 ATS
vs. Browns in career
WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
Redskins 5-12 ATS away since 2013 (0-1 this year). Atlanta 4-0 SU/ATS this season and on 11-3 ATS run. But, Falcons are 1-18 ATS at home off 3+ covers, & 0-12 ATS as home favorites off DD SU/ATS home win (and 2-14 ATS at home off Back-to-back SU/ATS wins). Redskins have out gained all opponents this season.
CHICAGO at KANSAS CITY
John Fox on 4-8 ATS run since late last year despite last week’s win. However, Fox is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in his career versus Kansas City. KC 9-0 ATS a non-division chalk of 8+
Bears 1-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back vs. AFC & Bears 8-15-1 as a road dog since 2011.
NEW ORLEANS at PHILADELPHIA
Kelly just 8-9 ATS as home chalk with Eagles. Saints have lost 12 of their last 18 road games SU. Saints 4-7-1 ATS last 12 as road dog in regular season and are on a 4-8 SU run. Eagles allowed 417 yards of offense (25-14 1st down deficit) to Washington last week. Eagles have covered only 11 of last 36 at home & Eagles week before playing Giants 1-8 ATS. Philly NFL’s #29 in yardage differential (-318) and have not had more time of possession than opponent in any game so far.
ST. LOUIS at GREEN BAY
Packers 8-1-1 vs. spread at home in regular season since 2014. Packers are averaging 36.8 ppg in their last 11 home games.
Rams 2-11 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games against in non-division opponents. Rams just 5-12 ATS away since 2013
SEATTLE at CINCINNATI
Marshawn Lynch out.
Seattle is just 1-4 ATS since 2014 playoffs. Seattle is 0-6 SU and 0-4-2 ATS away at AFC North in franchise history. But, Carroll 7-3-1 ATS as a dog since 2012 and Hawks 7-3-1 as an underdog under Russell Wilson. Seahawks as underdog only 5 ATS losses last 22 games
Bengals 4-0 SU/ATS (+36½ pts) this year. Bengals 12-2-1 SU and 10-3-2 ATS in last 15 vs. NFC and Marvin Lewis 17-4-1 ATS last 21 as regular season at home
ARIZONA at DETROIT
Cards 12-5 ATS on road in regular season under Bruce Arians. Arians is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS off a loss in his NFL career. Home team 9-3 ATS run in Lion games, while the favorite is also 9-3 ATS run. Lions are 3-8 ATS at home in their next game after playing on Monday night. Detroit only winless team in the NFL and 0-4 teams are 7-14 ATS in game 5 since 2009.
NEW ENGLAND at DALLAS
Incredible: Brady has never lost to Dallas in his career and Pats are 32-8 SU (24-15-1 ATS) in Gronk's last 40 games. NE is on a 13-5 ATS run.
Dallas 12-3 as dog since 2013 but that is mostly Romo. Weeden is 0-10 SU/ATS in his last ten NFL starts but Cowboys 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus .500 or better AFC teams.
DENVER at OAKLAND
Denver with Peyton Manning as QB 6-0 SU and ATS vs. Raiders (4-0 @ Oak). Manning 13-7 as road fav with Broncos since 2012 and he is 14-5-1 ATS in division games with Denver. Manning just 6 TD/5 INTs for the season and Denver has the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] ranked offense.
SAN FRANCISCO at NY GIANTS
SF on a 0-4 SU/ATS run in road games. Coughlin 11-5 ATS last 16 as home chalk. Giants are 7- 2 ATS vs San Fran. Niners on a 1-8-1 ATS run.
JACKSONVILLE at TAMPA BAY
-Toilet bowl: Lovie 0-10 SU (2-8 ATS) at home with Bucs & 0-4 as home chalk since last year. Jags just 12-22-1 as dog since Gus Bradley arrived. Visitor is 14-6 ATS in Tampa games. Bucs are 1-4 ATS in this series and on a 0-7 SU run in their game before the bye. Tampa lately at home 15-38 ATS. Winston has more INT’s than TD passes (7/6).
BUFFALO at TENNESSEE
Titans 3-12-2 ATS at home past two seasons. Titans are 0-10 ATS off scoring 28+ points, & 3-14 ATS off a DD SU loss. Bills are 6-13 ATS as road favorite soff a loss vs opponent off a loss. Titans are 14-6 SU and 12-6-2 ATS in games against the Bills including winning 8 of last 9 in this matchup
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
Dog run 9-2-2 ATS in Browns games, as well as 9-2 ATS in Ravens games. Ravens are 1-8 ATS as division home favorites of 4+ while the Browns are 8-1 ATS off a SU loss, & Browns 6-2-1 last 9 as road dog. Teams are 11-25 ATS as home favorites after playing the Steelers under Tomlin. But, Flacco 13-1 SU and 8-5-1 ATS
vs. Browns in career
WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
Redskins 5-12 ATS away since 2013 (0-1 this year). Atlanta 4-0 SU/ATS this season and on 11-3 ATS run. But, Falcons are 1-18 ATS at home off 3+ covers, & 0-12 ATS as home favorites off DD SU/ATS home win (and 2-14 ATS at home off Back-to-back SU/ATS wins). Redskins have out gained all opponents this season.
CHICAGO at KANSAS CITY
John Fox on 4-8 ATS run since late last year despite last week’s win. However, Fox is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in his career versus Kansas City. KC 9-0 ATS a non-division chalk of 8+
Bears 1-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back vs. AFC & Bears 8-15-1 as a road dog since 2011.
NEW ORLEANS at PHILADELPHIA
Kelly just 8-9 ATS as home chalk with Eagles. Saints have lost 12 of their last 18 road games SU. Saints 4-7-1 ATS last 12 as road dog in regular season and are on a 4-8 SU run. Eagles allowed 417 yards of offense (25-14 1st down deficit) to Washington last week. Eagles have covered only 11 of last 36 at home & Eagles week before playing Giants 1-8 ATS. Philly NFL’s #29 in yardage differential (-318) and have not had more time of possession than opponent in any game so far.
ST. LOUIS at GREEN BAY
Packers 8-1-1 vs. spread at home in regular season since 2014. Packers are averaging 36.8 ppg in their last 11 home games.
Rams 2-11 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games against in non-division opponents. Rams just 5-12 ATS away since 2013
SEATTLE at CINCINNATI
Marshawn Lynch out.
Seattle is just 1-4 ATS since 2014 playoffs. Seattle is 0-6 SU and 0-4-2 ATS away at AFC North in franchise history. But, Carroll 7-3-1 ATS as a dog since 2012 and Hawks 7-3-1 as an underdog under Russell Wilson. Seahawks as underdog only 5 ATS losses last 22 games
Bengals 4-0 SU/ATS (+36½ pts) this year. Bengals 12-2-1 SU and 10-3-2 ATS in last 15 vs. NFC and Marvin Lewis 17-4-1 ATS last 21 as regular season at home
ARIZONA at DETROIT
Cards 12-5 ATS on road in regular season under Bruce Arians. Arians is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS off a loss in his NFL career. Home team 9-3 ATS run in Lion games, while the favorite is also 9-3 ATS run. Lions are 3-8 ATS at home in their next game after playing on Monday night. Detroit only winless team in the NFL and 0-4 teams are 7-14 ATS in game 5 since 2009.
NEW ENGLAND at DALLAS
Incredible: Brady has never lost to Dallas in his career and Pats are 32-8 SU (24-15-1 ATS) in Gronk's last 40 games. NE is on a 13-5 ATS run.
Dallas 12-3 as dog since 2013 but that is mostly Romo. Weeden is 0-10 SU/ATS in his last ten NFL starts but Cowboys 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus .500 or better AFC teams.
DENVER at OAKLAND
Denver with Peyton Manning as QB 6-0 SU and ATS vs. Raiders (4-0 @ Oak). Manning 13-7 as road fav with Broncos since 2012 and he is 14-5-1 ATS in division games with Denver. Manning just 6 TD/5 INTs for the season and Denver has the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] ranked offense.
SAN FRANCISCO at NY GIANTS
SF on a 0-4 SU/ATS run in road games. Coughlin 11-5 ATS last 16 as home chalk. Giants are 7- 2 ATS vs San Fran. Niners on a 1-8-1 ATS run.
A few I maintain. Some might overlap....
JAX at TAM - Last meeting JAX trailed 0-14 and won 41-14. Note they went for 2 up 27 and missed, pissing off everyone on the other sideline. But all these staffs have turned over since then. 3rd straight Road Game system = 37-17 OVER. TAM 0-11 SU last 11 Home.
BUF at TEN - BUF is 0-13-1 ATS Away if won previous Away Game by 6+points. TEN is 1-13 ATS last 14 Home and has worst SU coach in the league, 4-27 SU last 31. Last meeting TEN scores on 4th and 9 with .00 on the clock to Win 35-34.
CLE at BAL - Team off Thursday 23-11 ATS run (BAL/PIT). BAL 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS Home if lost previous Home SU. CLE Rd vs Div = 1-18 SU with 15 of 19 by 6 or more.
ATL 4-19 ATS Home off Home Win since 1992. WAS worst 2-2 team in NFL history.
CHI at KC - Andy Reid now 1-9 ATS in Home Openers and 7-2 ATS in Home Game #2 of Season.
NOR at PHI - PHI won 2 Preseason Home Games by 76-27 but in real Season 8-18 to Win Home Game by more than 3 points . Last Reg Sea meet at NOR PHI 5 trips into the Redzone = 2 FG and 3 Turnovers including 99 yard INT return. Then another SU Fave Loss to NOR in Home Playoff Game. Not a dollar shown on NOR yet today.
Other notable Stats:
DAL 10-0 ATS Dog vs AFC
DEN 11-0 ATS Road vs Div after non-div.
SF 123 ATS Road if lost last 2 Road if last loss was by 10+.
NFL
Winner Thursday.
22-14-1 +740
Sunday
Well there's gonna be a rare kinda stink in this thread this week - the peculiar stink of Big Favs. You won't smell it here often so don't buy any special clothespins.
First let's get the Week 5 big picture out of the way.
Week 5 since 2001:
60 Home Favs
68 Road Dogs
27 Road Favs
31 Home Dogs
A couple of interesting isolations:
25 Div Rd Dogs
15 Div Home Favs
8 Div Road Dogs of 7 up
4 Div Home Favs of 7 up
15 Non Div HF of 7 up
10 Non Div Rd Fav of 7 up
One anecdotal note about favs - when they seem too high they are a play on. When they they seem too low they are a play against. The book knows how to set his sucker lines.
My Plays:
Atlanta -7 +104 (vs Wash)
Week 5 undefeated non Division Home teams are 6-0 ATS since 2005.
Green Bay -8' -109 (vs St L)
Ditto above explanation.
Oakland +4 -104 (vs Denver)
Week 5, .500 or worse record with at least one win Home Dogs when not lined as Double Digits; now playing an undefeated team are 7-1 ATS since 2005.
more coming
Winner Thursday.
22-14-1 +740
Sunday
Well there's gonna be a rare kinda stink in this thread this week - the peculiar stink of Big Favs. You won't smell it here often so don't buy any special clothespins.
First let's get the Week 5 big picture out of the way.
Week 5 since 2001:
60 Home Favs
68 Road Dogs
27 Road Favs
31 Home Dogs
A couple of interesting isolations:
25 Div Rd Dogs
15 Div Home Favs
8 Div Road Dogs of 7 up
4 Div Home Favs of 7 up
15 Non Div HF of 7 up
10 Non Div Rd Fav of 7 up
One anecdotal note about favs - when they seem too high they are a play on. When they they seem too low they are a play against. The book knows how to set his sucker lines.
My Plays:
Atlanta -7 +104 (vs Wash)
Week 5 undefeated non Division Home teams are 6-0 ATS since 2005.
Green Bay -8' -109 (vs St L)
Ditto above explanation.
Oakland +4 -104 (vs Denver)
Week 5, .500 or worse record with at least one win Home Dogs when not lined as Double Digits; now playing an undefeated team are 7-1 ATS since 2005.
more coming
MLB -$1183 / FB 30-44
Horrible day yesterday. A month's worth of bad beats and robberies. Lost Air Force, 7th straight Cover for Wyom in this Series and they all play out the same. Wyom is Fucking UTEP North. They are putrid. But Air Force left all their receivers open by 10 yards up 31-10 late and got beat over the top. Another easy OVER dies in the 2H when Haw-Sdst can't manage 17 points, or any points in the 4Q. Never mind that 31 out of 33 Hawaii Home games have been 45 or higher in Oct-Dec. They set a number 10 points lower than it should be, you bite, and then they Fuck You. Last but certainly not least was up and cumer UNLV catching 3.5, leading 24-20 gives up the TD with a minute left. But losing by 3 is just not good enough. They hit a FG as time expires, lose the OT coin toss (which is what you want with an OT Dog, to get the ball FIRST!), get a FG blocked. But does San Jose kick a FG to win by 3? No, of course not! They pull a Bill BlankenSHIT (Tulsa 33, CF 27 in 2012 Conf USA Championship Game (wanna guess what the spread was???) and decide to play for a TD. FML
Horrible day yesterday. A month's worth of bad beats and robberies. Lost Air Force, 7th straight Cover for Wyom in this Series and they all play out the same. Wyom is Fucking UTEP North. They are putrid. But Air Force left all their receivers open by 10 yards up 31-10 late and got beat over the top. Another easy OVER dies in the 2H when Haw-Sdst can't manage 17 points, or any points in the 4Q. Never mind that 31 out of 33 Hawaii Home games have been 45 or higher in Oct-Dec. They set a number 10 points lower than it should be, you bite, and then they Fuck You. Last but certainly not least was up and cumer UNLV catching 3.5, leading 24-20 gives up the TD with a minute left. But losing by 3 is just not good enough. They hit a FG as time expires, lose the OT coin toss (which is what you want with an OT Dog, to get the ball FIRST!), get a FG blocked. But does San Jose kick a FG to win by 3? No, of course not! They pull a Bill BlankenSHIT (Tulsa 33, CF 27 in 2012 Conf USA Championship Game (wanna guess what the spread was???) and decide to play for a TD. FML
