I'll add and my stuff here keep an NFL record if you want it, Scott. It will be a copy and paste job. I won't have the success I've had in Bases, but I still work hard at it and maybe the info I research can help. Tell me if it's not appropriate for your thread.
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| Hi all. NFL is back. Patriots are cheaters and World Beaters. Take your stance but be prepared when you play them. The Patriots will have all the ts crossed and is dotted. And they will kick your ass at 11 PSI or 12 PSI or 13 PSI. They are the best coached team in the history of the NFL. You might want to focus on that if you have to play them. As for me, I'll just muddle through another NFL season, likely without distinction. When I have the time I'll provide the research I did over the week to get to my selections. I used to be good at this NFL stuff. But the days of effective trends and contrarianism are far behind us now. Thank the internet and the age of information sharing. It has killed my handicapping methods. So I just look at handicapping each game as an individual challenge and study whatever comes to mind. It's not a very scientific approach and probably won't be very successful similar to recent NFL years for me. But I enjoy the handicapping challenge, my research, and the back and forth with you guys (and gals if there are any left here). My Baseball work has taken form after years of spreadsheet tweaking. I compile the same variables that I've learned to focus on daily and "read" them. Takes me a couple of hours a day. I wish I could do the same for the NFL. But I have been unsuccessful at pulling together the "correct" variables. My hat goes off to guys like Jarhead and Number Freak. Two guys who have posted here over the years. They've managed to tame the variables. Me, I'm still working at it. So until I get it done.... I hope to be a dollar over even at season's end. That's my simple goal. For the sake of keeping things where they can be traced by anyone interested I use PInnacle lines at the time I post (unless noted like in the first game I'm posting today). /// Week 1 /// Houston +/- ? Some teams come ready to play. I looked at that this week. Houston is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home openers. But Hoyer sucks you say? Name one NFL level receiver he had in Cleveland last year. You can't. There was a real reason he sucked last year chucking the rock on the shore of Lake Erie. Arizona -2' -106 Bruce Arians has virtually the same winning percentage as Bill Bellichik (.656 to .659). Despite having Logan Thomas, Drew Stanton, and Ryan Lindley for his starting QBs for 15 games last season, this team still went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home last year. Carson Palmer is an excellent QB when healthy. Expect this team to rise to the top this year. Starting today. San Diego -3 -104 A traditionally slow starting team, the Bolts won 5 of their first 6 games last year and covered their first five under first year coach, Mike McCoy. So they open with Detroit, a team that was 0-5 ATS in their last five road games last year. OK. Tennessee +3 -108 (@ Tampa) This game should be fun. The two worst teams in all the NFL last year with two shiny new first round quarterbacks. Bet you wouldn't know that one of these teams has won their last two openers, on the road no less. Yep. The Tits from Tenny beat Kansas City 26-10 as 3 point road dogs last year; and beat the mighty Steelers 16-9 as 6' point road doggies two years ago. My money says the Titties are better prepared tham Lovie Smith's team, today. Tenny / Tampa Under 41 -105 Tenny is 6-1-1 to the Under in their last 8 openers. Tampa is 4-1 to the Under in their last 5 openers. I think incompetence limits scoring today with two rookie QBs on two teams who combined for 4 wins last year. Denver -4' -108 (vs Balty) I know Peyton is done. But as long as he steps on the field Denver is 22-2 at home during the regular season when he does. I'll take my chances on the cover. /// Good luck guys. Hope you all kill 'em. |
Army was 2-6 for six yards in the passing game, before connecting on a 79 yard score in the closing minutes to accomplish the classic back door
Thanks Jim, PLEASE CONTINUE. It's pretty quiet in here and we need reading material.
Willie there was a lot of backdooring and frontdooring in NCAAF yesterday. Some of it even occurred before the game. Urban knows the number, BET ON IT! And ask Mantis, he had Missouri and woke up with his pants already pulled halfway down.
I had THE ABSOLUTE WORST 3-3 day EVER! Lost Tennessee with a late 2 TD lead. Lost Ball when my receiver got tripped in the EZ on the last play of the game. My other play WF also led at HT getting points.
And in MLB blew a 3 Run lead in NY, and had UNDER 8 in a game that was 2-1 in the 7th. To add insult to injury all 3 MLB teams I lost with Friday won on Saturday with 2 of them collecting +$180!
FB = 8-11
MLB = -$758 - thread low here and my actual overall season record is now negative at -4.07, which means I might end up losing 2 out of 3 years after winning 9 years straight.
(end of crying section)
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So in Week 1 NFL the rule is throw out the spread. Pick the SU Winner and you're very likely to cash. The Winner of the game in Week 1 is 150-26-4 vs the ATS Line the last 12 years.
Willie there was a lot of backdooring and frontdooring in NCAAF yesterday. Some of it even occurred before the game. Urban knows the number, BET ON IT! And ask Mantis, he had Missouri and woke up with his pants already pulled halfway down.
I had THE ABSOLUTE WORST 3-3 day EVER! Lost Tennessee with a late 2 TD lead. Lost Ball when my receiver got tripped in the EZ on the last play of the game. My other play WF also led at HT getting points.
And in MLB blew a 3 Run lead in NY, and had UNDER 8 in a game that was 2-1 in the 7th. To add insult to injury all 3 MLB teams I lost with Friday won on Saturday with 2 of them collecting +$180!
FB = 8-11
MLB = -$758 - thread low here and my actual overall season record is now negative at -4.07, which means I might end up losing 2 out of 3 years after winning 9 years straight.
(end of crying section)
==================================================================================
So in Week 1 NFL the rule is throw out the spread. Pick the SU Winner and you're very likely to cash. The Winner of the game in Week 1 is 150-26-4 vs the ATS Line the last 12 years.
Hey Michelangleo,
nice write up. Keep tweaking your stats, you'll find what you're looking for. Science is empirism. Don't ever forget this. Finding a 1000 way to not achieve something only gets you closer to find the way to do it.
I'll definitely be following your posts on NFL and probably the picks coming from it ;-)
I wish i could pm you about this but i'm still a newbie here so can't do much (or just didn't figure out how to do it). I know you play at pinnacle, and so do i.
Regarding the MLB yesterday, I have the phillie game refunded when it hsould have been a winner. Did you get the same issue ? Sorry if this doens't belong here, Scott, i'll edit my post to only leave the first part.
Best of luck for the NFL season, lads.
nice write up. Keep tweaking your stats, you'll find what you're looking for. Science is empirism. Don't ever forget this. Finding a 1000 way to not achieve something only gets you closer to find the way to do it.
I'll definitely be following your posts on NFL and probably the picks coming from it ;-)
I wish i could pm you about this but i'm still a newbie here so can't do much (or just didn't figure out how to do it). I know you play at pinnacle, and so do i.
Regarding the MLB yesterday, I have the phillie game refunded when it hsould have been a winner. Did you get the same issue ? Sorry if this doens't belong here, Scott, i'll edit my post to only leave the first part.
Best of luck for the NFL season, lads.
Chaper it depends on what time you bet the PHI-CUB game and whether you specified listed pitchers or action. Action means you have a bet regardless of a pitching change and you get an adjustment in price. So pay attn when submitting your bets which boxes are checked.
I doubt Mich plays at Pinnacle. They no longer accept bets from the US because of our draconian laws regarding sportsbetting. Our gov't only lets us wager when they can get their cut. For that we have Fuckheads like John Kyle and a host of others to thank.
I doubt Mich plays at Pinnacle. They no longer accept bets from the US because of our draconian laws regarding sportsbetting. Our gov't only lets us wager when they can get their cut. For that we have Fuckheads like John Kyle and a host of others to thank.
I think my man, Scott, answered all your questions, Chaper. Good luck. Pressed for time. Too much to handicap.
Add NFL:
Oakland +3 -113 (vs Cincy)
This team is improving. Last year they drafted one of the NFL's best young linebackers in Khalil Mack. This year they got Amari Cooper for David Carr to throw to. You may not have noticed but they only won three games last year. Those three wins came in their last three home games. Let's make it four consecutive home wins over an unsuspecting Cinci team flying in to the West coast.
Add NFL:
Oakland +3 -113 (vs Cincy)
This team is improving. Last year they drafted one of the NFL's best young linebackers in Khalil Mack. This year they got Amari Cooper for David Carr to throw to. You may not have noticed but they only won three games last year. Those three wins came in their last three home games. Let's make it four consecutive home wins over an unsuspecting Cinci team flying in to the West coast.
I was confused as i received this message in my inbox.
Baseball] [MLB] [Game] [Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies]. The event has been re-graded to the original result of [Score 5-7]. Your bet on [Moneyline] with ticket-ID: [498239078] has not been affected.
I learned another valuable lesson. Sorry for clooging up the thread with not exactly on topic subject.
I'll be carefull about placing my bets as Action and not pitcher wagers. Thank you for clearing this up
Regarding your betting on pinnacle, there is restriction for bookies in my country, but as a bettor, i'm not obliged to bet on the State sanctionned bookie. So i use a broker. I'm happy enough with their services. I've only tried one so far, but i'm planning to test a few other that have good enough reputation.
It's not as convenient as a standard bookie, but the inconvenience is pretty mild.
If you want to know more about what service i use, i'll be happy to provide you with a link and detail my experience with the service. Maybe in a thread of its own if it doesn't exist.
Thanks again for your time, guys.
BoL
Baseball] [MLB] [Game] [Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies]. The event has been re-graded to the original result of [Score 5-7]. Your bet on [Moneyline] with ticket-ID: [498239078] has not been affected.
I learned another valuable lesson. Sorry for clooging up the thread with not exactly on topic subject.
I'll be carefull about placing my bets as Action and not pitcher wagers. Thank you for clearing this up
Regarding your betting on pinnacle, there is restriction for bookies in my country, but as a bettor, i'm not obliged to bet on the State sanctionned bookie. So i use a broker. I'm happy enough with their services. I've only tried one so far, but i'm planning to test a few other that have good enough reputation.
It's not as convenient as a standard bookie, but the inconvenience is pretty mild.
If you want to know more about what service i use, i'll be happy to provide you with a link and detail my experience with the service. Maybe in a thread of its own if it doesn't exist.
Thanks again for your time, guys.
BoL
That's kind of crazy. The Bills named Taylor the starter and he was #1 on the depth chart. I mean if that's how they grade it, would McCoy be considered the starter if he takes a wildcat snap on the first play? Tough loss, sorry to see that Guesser. That was a really solid bet on your part, hate to not see it rewarded. Hope you're doing well, haven't seen you around in a while.
Thanks. It was graded correctly based on the bet. I was steaming at first, as I didn't see the 1st play, but knew Tyrod was the "starter", and he was playing. I went to the play by play, and I have no gripe, other than to just laugh at yet another way you can experience a bad beat. It was a small enough bet and I didn't really lose. It wasn't 5 Dimes, it was Justbet.
