Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

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Monday 9-14-15 NFL YTD record 0-0

Getting these in now because I will be on the road up to game time. May wait until later tomorrow because lines may move in opposite direction but these are the lines used for grading. Odds posted are 5D reduced juice lines

Atlanta + 2 1/2 +112
Under 55 Atlanta/Philadelphia (105)
San Fran +2 (105)
 
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So in Week 1 NFL the rule is throw out the spread. Pick the SU Winner and you're very likely to cash. The Winner of the game in Week 1 is 150-26-4 vs the ATS Line the last 12 years.

Holds true again. 12-1-1, by my math.
 

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Holds true again. 12-1-1, by my math.

Eli fucked it up LOL.

Also there's a rule in the NFL that I don't like that screwed NYG as well on that 3rd and 14 conversion. They made a F&G and declined the offside, leaving the clock at 1:54. From what I remember when you decline a defensive penalty the game clock used to start after the ball was spotted and then run. But now the clock stops whether or not a penalty is accepted or declined in the final 2 minutes of the 1H and last 5 minutes of the game. I don't know if this is a recent change but I don't recall it being like this before. Why should Dallas be 'rewarded' with a free timeout after committing a declined infraction?
 

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It's the same Shit every year with Cleveland, Chicago and Detroit with quick starts and terrible finishes.

And IMO Seattle threw the game against the Rams. Which sets up another Michigan St-Oregon scenario for Sunday where the revenge gets beat to death in the media all week and the game gets bet up to 4-5 before the avenging Packers win by 2-3.
 

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The 150-26 actually isn't a huge outlier.

Long-term trend for that is around 82% so it is just a little higher.
 

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The 150-26 actually isn't a huge outlier.

Long-term trend for that is around 82% so it is just a little higher.

Good point. I just posted it because it was in my records and I keep a lot more historical stuff updated year-to-year for Week 1 and Week 16 (1pm,4pm,half stats etc) than other weeks.
 

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Why did you stop posting?
Since you asked.
1)What was done to Vit in this thread was disgusting. This thread had great potential, but when you have clowns like Casper and Lying Ace coming here to do nothing but disrupt it and hassle him, and the blame he took for simply getting attacked was beyond disgusting, but typical for this place. Something more than a gentle chiding or silence by influential people in this thread like you and Mich would have nipped it in the bud. A GTFO of this thread with your BS would have been effective, IMO. At least the attempt should have been made. Rest assured, if Finchy, or Aki, came into the thread the way those guys did, something more than Aki Don't would have been said, and it would have been appropriate. I had hoped this was the one thread down here where Politics and forum affiliations would be thrown out the window, and there would just be civil discussion with the intent of helping each other out. Sadly, I was wrong.

2)I am tired and bored of arguing with the stormfronters, racists, sexists, close minded fools who only see things one way, about Politics early in the NFL season when Football is on my mind 24/7. That will likely change at some point, but for now, I'm just not into it.
 
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Since you asked.
1)What was done to Vit in this thread was disgusting. This thread had great potential, but when you have clowns like Casper and Lying Ace coming here to do nothing but disrupt it and hassle him, and the blame he took for simply getting attacked was beyond disgusting, but typical for this place. Something more than a gentle chiding or silence by influential people in this thread like you and Mich would have nipped it in the bud. A GTFO of this thread with your BS would have been effective, IMO. At least the attempt should have been made. Rest assured, if Finchy, or Aki, came into the thread the way those guys did, something more than Aki Don't would have been said, and it would have been appropriate. I had hoped this was the one thread down here where Politics and forum affiliations would be thrown out the window, and there would just be civil discussion with the intent of helping each other out. Sadly, I was wrong.

2)I am tired and bored of arguing with the stormfronters, racists, sexists, close minded fools who only see things one way, about Politics early in the NFL season when Football is on my mind 24/7. That will likely change at some point, but for now, I'm just not into it.

I have to respectfully disagree on your first point. There were multiple people who asked all parties involved in the arguing to keep the BS out of this thread (I also would not describe it as gentle chiding). Not taking Vit's side is not a vote for Ace. You're entitled to your opinion, however, and I am happy for you on point #2. Best of luck, hope you have a profitable football season.
 

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Since you asked.
1)What was done to Vit in this thread was disgusting. This thread had great potential, but when you have clowns like Casper and Lying Ace coming here to do nothing but disrupt it and hassle him, and the blame he took for simply getting attacked was beyond disgusting, but typical for this place.

You never fail to disappoint, you silly, lying asshole.

It is hysterical you lost a futures bet on a wildcat snap. What I'm sure sucks the most for a fixed-income geezer like you is that you are going to have to hold off buying some Boost for the next 2 weeks.

boost2.jpg
 
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You never fail to disappoint, you silly, lying asshole.

It is hysterical you lost a futures bet on a wildcat snap. What I'm sure sucks the most for a geezer like you is that you are going to have to hold off buying some Boost for the next 2 weeks.

There is one thread people have repeatedly asked you to keep this kind of stuff out of and you still can't do it. Honestly, I'm embarrassed for you. If you have no desire to share your wagers or thoughts on games, just stop clicking on this thread.
 

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You never fail to disappoint, you silly, lying asshole.

It is hysterical you lost a futures bet on a wildcat snap. What I'm sure sucks the most for a fixed-income geezer like you is that you are going to have to hold off buying some Boost for the next 2 weeks.

boost2.jpg
I agree it was funny, thread destroyer Lying Ace. That's why I posted it. I'm laughing at it alot more than you. Sorry to disappoint you though, it was a profitable week. And will be moreso if Atlanta covers tonight, even moreso if they win.
 

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There is one thread people have repeatedly asked you to keep this kind of stuff out of and you still can't do it. Honestly, I'm embarrassed for you. If you have no desire to share your wagers or thoughts on games, just stop clicking on this thread.

Guesser isn't sharing any thoughts on games by making these idiotic claims.

I'm going to cry in the shower, The Crying Game style, now since you are "embarrassed" for me.

Are you going to take a pill and like me in 2 hours?

:103631605
 
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Guesser isn't sharing any thoughts on games by making these idiotic claims.

I'm going to cry in the shower, The Crying Game style, now since you are "embarrassed" for me.

Are you going to take a pill and like me in 2 hours?

:103631605

Scott asked him why he wasn't posting here. He answered. The fact that you didn't like his answer doesn't mean it wasn't a civil response. You only come in here to flame. Big difference. And yes, the pill jokes are hilarious, as always.
 

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You never fail to disappoint, you silly, lying asshole.

It is hysterical you lost a futures bet on a wildcat snap. What I'm sure sucks the most for a fixed-income geezer like you is that you are going to have to hold off buying some Boost for the next 2 weeks.

boost2.jpg

What you got against Boost? I used to work at a nursing home when I was 17. I would pound these things. The strawberry one was pretty good.

These were like protein shakes before protein shakes were a thing.
 

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And yes, the pill jokes are hilarious, as always.

I'm just giving you grief. I find it bizarre they just started calling you a pill popper out of the blue.

Anyway, in case this helps anyone:

7:10 pm: Eagles over 14-6 last 20 reg season games. Philly just 4-6 ATS last 10 away. Atlanta 5-2 as home dog since 2013 & Matt Ryan is 7-0 SU/ATS in home openers in his NFL career.

10:20pm: San Fran, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time as a home dog since 2011. 49ers are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in last 10 MNF. Minnesota is 0-6 SU/ATS in last 6 MNF; 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a road favorite and are 2-6 ATS at SF


There were 2 games yesterday that had similar trends:
Arizona (similar to SF) Cardinals (near Atlanta). The Bills were close too, but stronger to where SF sits tonight. Will be interesting to see if the trends hold.

GL
 
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7:10 pm: Eagles over 14-6 last 20 reg season games. Philly just 4-6 ATS last 10 away. Atlanta 5-2 as home dog since 2013 & Matt Ryan is 7-0 SU/ATS in home openers in his NFL career.

Thanks for the trends, Ace.

I've wanted to pull the trigger on Atl as a home dog all day but I just can't back that defense.
 

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I'm just giving you grief. I find it bizarre they just started calling you a pill popper out of the blue.

Anyway, in case this helps anyone:

7:10 pm: Eagles over 14-6 last 20 reg season games. Philly just 4-6 ATS last 10 away. Atlanta 5-2 as home dog since 2013 & Matt Ryan is 7-0 SU/ATS in home openers in his NFL career.

10:20pm: San Fran, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time as a home dog since 2011. 49ers are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in last 10 MNF. Minnesota is 0-6 SU/ATS in last 6 MNF; 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a road favorite and are 2-6 ATS at SF


There were 2 games yesterday that had similar trends:
Arizona (similar to SF) Chargers (near Atlanta). The Bills were close too, but stronger to where SF sits tonight. Will be interesting to see if the trends hold.

GL

Fixed the error, meant SD

Thanks for the trends, Ace.

I've wanted to pull the trigger on Atl as a home dog all day but I just can't back that defense.

I hear you. Can't trust it, and Lang on Falcons too.
 

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Since you asked.
1)What was done to Vit in this thread was disgusting. This thread had great potential, but when you have clowns like Casper and Lying Ace coming here to do nothing but disrupt it and hassle him, and the blame he took for simply getting attacked was beyond disgusting, but typical for this place. Something more than a gentle chiding or silence by influential people in this thread like you and Mich would have nipped it in the bud. A GTFO of this thread with your BS would have been effective, IMO. At least the attempt should have been made. Rest assured, if Finchy, or Aki, came into the thread the way those guys did, something more than Aki Don't would have been said, and it would have been appropriate. I had hoped this was the one thread down here where Politics and forum affiliations would be thrown out the window, and there would just be civil discussion with the intent of helping each other out. Sadly, I was wrong.

2)I am tired and bored of arguing with the stormfronters, racists, sexists, close minded fools who only see things one way, about Politics early in the NFL season when Football is on my mind 24/7. That will likely change at some point, but for now, I'm just not into it.

crocodile_tears_tile_coaster.jpg

As always, poker fraud vtard was the instigator and got exactly what he deserved.
 

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