opinions on how XMAS eve will effect the weekend totals..

Search

New member
Joined
Nov 3, 2005
Messages
213
Tokens
By the way, no one should ever take the Greek for the max. If you have been doing that, please stop. Please make it for $5 less than the max. So for a $200 limit, make it $195. That will leave the line the same. You cannot re-bet it until the line changes.

But if you bet $195 instead of $200, then you will leave the line out there for someone else, perhaps one of us, while not really sacrificing much of anything. And if we all consistently do that, then we will all benefit. You do it, and it will help someone else, but when I do it, it potentially helps you. It all goes around in a circle. "Help me help you..." :)
 

New member
Joined
Nov 3, 2005
Messages
213
Tokens
Rocky looks to be a winner to me, at the Wed figure given above. But it could be close, and perhaps a middle, if frontloaded. If you think it will be close, and you need to balance your middles, or perhaps if you simply want to bet at +odds and think it will hit 25-26, or 27-28, or whatever, then please go to Matchbook. If you like what you see, take it. If you don't like what you see, and want something better, then make an offer.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 3, 2005
Messages
213
Tokens
So what's out there right now? Well, this morning, there were good Greek plays apparently, but not anymore (unless someone researches Black Christmas). There are no longer any cross-middles between the Greek and Pinny We Are Marshall and Good Shepherd lines, and the lines that are there right now are suspect to me. 1 may go Over, 1 may go Under, it's getting tight at this point.

So the only clearly good play out there right now imo is on Night at the Museum. If you got in this morning on the Greek, congrats. Great line, very easy. Worth it at -400? Eh, not so much, as it should win, but I really don't like tying up that much money on such high odds on something without actual data coming in (taking Rocky at -400 last night, with such good WOM and sales reports is another story, that's warranted, whereas right now it's still educated estimates and analysis). So if not at the Greek, where?

Well, Pinny, of course. NATM had gone back up to a fair line of the -180's as of late last night and early this morning. This morning it went back down sizably, probably due to people scalping the Greek line (Over on the Greek and Under on Pinny), or perhaps due to fear of Rocky not winning and therefore hedging their bets on Museum, or perhaps blindly following net prediction makers that are not very good. A whole host of reasons were out there, so it's easy to see why the Pinny Museum Over 31 line went down. Mainly due to scalpers/hedgers/middlers.

Well, now the Greek line is kaput, and the scalpers are done. Pinny line has not moved in a while, and is all the way down in the -130's. Great bargain here imo, whether you want to add more to your position, or for any latecomers that want a position.

If you're new, it's definitely not too late imo, as the fair line should be 33, and the 31 line should be Over near -200 imo, and still may go up and get bumped to 32 or 33 by tomorrow morning.

All signs point to only Over money coming in, except when scalping opportunities present themselves, such as this morning with the Greek, or after a line change.

So even if you don't know much about movies, this looks like a great Over bet to me, and then if you get scared you can exit tomorrow morning 10 minutes before closing, and you will likely/hopefully get an arb/middle out of it.

If you need more analysis, just check the last 3 pages of this thread, lol, tons of it out there, and the Museum Over play is very strong. I'm pretty much maxed out on my funds available there, so can't take advantage of it anymore. Both Rocky and Museum made my highest 4* plays. Best wishes with your wagers, guys.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,245
Tokens
well its over 6 but like you i was hoping for more...

opinions on what this does for the 5days??
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,245
Tokens
well for comparison only wtc also opened on a wed and did the following #s

wed 4,403,000
thu 3,346,000
fri 5,845,000
sat 7,267,000
sun 5,690,000

5day total 26,500,000
 

New member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
337
Tokens
i need rocky to go over 26 million... but gut tells me it isn't. probably front loaded.

what is wtc?
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,245
Tokens
world trade center....

i sorta have this weird feeling myself and i have over 27 so....will be interesting when tomorrows #s come out in relation to WTC thursday #...and the overall drop from wednesdays..

hopefully what the people on the boards are saying is true...about it being geared towards older people and they had to work etc etc and will see it over the weekend....
 

New member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
337
Tokens
i don't think you can use world trade center as a comparison as it opened in August. much better for movies.

internet buzz can be deceiving. look at yahoo buzz.. it has rocky exploding like it should make 40+ this weekend.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,451
Tokens
HuskerFan1 said:
well for comparison only wtc also opened on a wed and did the following #s

wed 4,403,000
thu 3,346,000
fri 5,845,000
sat 7,267,000
sun 5,690,000

5day total 26,500,000

We're looking at a weak Saturday and weaker Sunday. In 2000 when Christmas fell on Monday the increase on Saturday was minimal (10%ish) and the drop for Sunday was 60%ish.

26/27 could be in trouble.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 3, 2005
Messages
213
Tokens
Optimistic here, but could be close. I'd like to balance some of my positions in each of the $1m ranges of that 24-28 range, myself. Anyone want to match or make any offers on Matchbook? You guys have to have some partially unbalanced positions as well, right?

When it looks like an easy Over that won't even be close to the line, then these ranges don't matter. But when it could be close...by all my different calculations, several of these ranges could hit, we won't have a tighter range until Friday, so if you need to hedge, or to buy more of a range, please visit there and see.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,451
Tokens
nf just posted;

"As a heads up, RCKY6 seems to be sizably frontloaded. Today is *much* slower so far than yesterday in talking with a couple of theatres"

Translation...over those late numbers could be fuxked now.

Also in other news;

Here are the Fandango ticket sales (as of 12/21/06 1:00 pm PST):


Fandango Five:
Rocky Balboa 22%
Night at the Museum 15%
Charlotte’s Web 14%
Eragon 10%
The Pursuit of Happyness 9%
 

New member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
337
Tokens
More pre-tickets SOLD for Night At the Museum. Both my nephews want to see it opening weekend. It's going to be big.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 3, 2005
Messages
213
Tokens
HPark, that guy gives some useful data, but admits that others are better at interpreting his data. I'd agree with reports that Rocky should do better at night than during the day, whereas Charlotte's Web does most of its business during the day. I mean, that's just common sense.

For Night at the Museum, I agree with 3D Glasses. It's going strongly and going to be big.

Online indicators, pre-sales included, would undertrack a movie like this. Pursuit of Happyness was similarly undertracked and had a $27 weekend. This should blow that out, and well clear all of the lines so far imo.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,245
Tokens
im more worried about rocky right now than i am with NATM...

i also agree rocky will do better at night....tomorrows #s should tell us a little more where we stand on it...im hoping for a 4m+ day...that would put it at 10.2+...comingsoon updated and said it should be between 10-11M for wed/thurs and they had the weekend at 17-19 so....

we will see...

still no lines at wsex...wanna see what they put the marshall line at bc i would like to just buy out and be done with that one...
 

New member
Joined
Nov 3, 2005
Messages
213
Tokens
For Rocky, it just depends on how much you think fanboys rushed to see it but there being no other audience, or still having a strong audience on the weekend.

Does anyone have any of a $26-27 middle range? I'd like to buy that range, and can negotiate odds with you, if you'd like.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 3, 2005
Messages
213
Tokens
Final tally of my positions below. It is apparent that I went strong on Rocky and NATM Over, and I previously said I had a mild lean Over on Marshall and Shepherd.

I also said that one may go Under, and it's hard to cherry pick. With that in mind, I for the most part exited the Marshall and Shepherd positions, as I'm mainly playing Rocky and NATM Over pretty big, and that'll be my weekend.

I'm ending up with my position mainly at:

NATM Over 27, with an even bigger win if Over 29, and a huge, huge win at Over 31.
Rocky at Over 23, with a bigger win at Over 25
Marshall for a small arb either way
Shepherd for a wash

Best wishes to all for their weekend, and over the holidays.

Oh, and I'm probably taking a week or two off of this, regardless of win or lose. Will be traveling, doing family stuff, etc. So if I lose, any time off is not just because I'm pouting. :)

And with the heavy action I have, I'd love to follow this over the weekend, but will probably be finishing Christmas shopping, parties, and things, so won't be doing updates.

So if I don't get to say it later, have a great holiday season everyone, and I truly hope that everything goes well for you (in life, not just this betting thing that we do). :)
 

Their undisputed masterpiece is "Hip to be Square.
Joined
Dec 29, 2005
Messages
6,194
Tokens
This thread is serious.
-I don't play on movies, but there is some insightful biz on this.

GL everyone.

Only movie I'm allowed to see this weekend with my new wife is that Matt Damon CIA flick.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,245
Tokens
rocky has officially SHAT the bed lol...it might have trouble getting over 22 at this point...

this weekend SUCKS...

at this point im thankful natm pulled a great # out its ass for friday (12.3)...to save my bet at the greek or ida gone for my balls...at this point its just gonna be a bad weekend...instead of a bloodbath...

what pisses me off is the greek was giving away money and i left it all on the table....their 4day line on WAM was a joke...them not accepting instacash really hurt me....i missed the boat on dreamland...the line is way too high now...

oh the topper is i had a winner in under wam and i covered at the last minute so its a push for me on that one...

if rocky does go over 22...ill make about 50bucks total on that NATM and WAM positions...and i get beat at tradesports for close to 300 on the other rocky positions...

oh well i guess...
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,121,080
Messages
13,590,824
Members
101,053
Latest member
garqonti
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com