if current reports hold up, you will quickly see the figure go to -600 Over, +500 Under or higher on the exchanges.
If anyone is wondering what is the right time to arb back, I do not think that the time has come yet. That is what I have said all week, and I have been right.
The line has moved from 22 to 27 now (another line bump, if you haven't seen it yet). That is insane. It just shows that Pinny messed up. They're not infallible, guys. They're guessing/estimating/betting at the number just like us. And when they're wrong, they're just plain wrong.
I mean, when the line has gone to -200, that side has won 8-for-8 now. Probably more, but that's just since I started tracking it. Even -150 means it should be a win.
So if you're looking to arb/middle back, who knows...wait a little while, and it could be a line of 28, -280/+250, who knows, the way this thing is going? I don't want to keep repeating myself, so just read the above portions of the thread whenever the line bumped.
You get scalpers who bring it back down, but the value is on the Over. And anywhere near -200 on the Over has been money in the bank and an easy side to take so far. It would be a lock down free arb *and* free middle at any point. There has been no way to lose on the Over. Eventually you can close out your position right, if you're risk-averse, to lock in your win before lines close, but doing it before then has no value imo. And, of course, riding it out is probably the better play, as hedging is -EV, although it involves more variance.
So I see now reason to change my opinion from above. I posted way, way above in this thread that the fair line is 29. If Pinny wants to make only $1m adjustments and not get the true worth of the line moves, then that's their mistake. I'll take the Over until 29.
If anyone is wondering what is the right time to arb back, I do not think that the time has come yet. That is what I have said all week, and I have been right.
The line has moved from 22 to 27 now (another line bump, if you haven't seen it yet). That is insane. It just shows that Pinny messed up. They're not infallible, guys. They're guessing/estimating/betting at the number just like us. And when they're wrong, they're just plain wrong.
I mean, when the line has gone to -200, that side has won 8-for-8 now. Probably more, but that's just since I started tracking it. Even -150 means it should be a win.
So if you're looking to arb/middle back, who knows...wait a little while, and it could be a line of 28, -280/+250, who knows, the way this thing is going? I don't want to keep repeating myself, so just read the above portions of the thread whenever the line bumped.
You get scalpers who bring it back down, but the value is on the Over. And anywhere near -200 on the Over has been money in the bank and an easy side to take so far. It would be a lock down free arb *and* free middle at any point. There has been no way to lose on the Over. Eventually you can close out your position right, if you're risk-averse, to lock in your win before lines close, but doing it before then has no value imo. And, of course, riding it out is probably the better play, as hedging is -EV, although it involves more variance.
So I see now reason to change my opinion from above. I posted way, way above in this thread that the fair line is 29. If Pinny wants to make only $1m adjustments and not get the true worth of the line moves, then that's their mistake. I'll take the Over until 29.
