see i dont mind laying sick juice if its got the backing behind it...this has the WOM im looking for...what coulda been last week if eragon had the same solid reviews...christ ida cleaned house on that...thats my conservative nature i guess...
if im laying 400 on something...i like it A LOT...
i still have to tip my cap to llabb he had this one pegged from the outset...to have positions at the ground floor all the way up is a great feeling bc even if it doesnt clear them all you really cant get hurt that much bc the wins will offset the loses...sadly for me im not sitting in the same boat as he
HP will we see...one thing i like is if he is calling it an over on the west coast...that is a good sign bc i wasnt gonna put a lot of stock in his early #s on this movie bc its on the total opposite country of where this movie will do good #s....PHILLY (especially) and NYC which isnt far away...i think we have that on our side as well...im sure Philly shows are doing much better business than anywhere in the country...
if im laying 400 on something...i like it A LOT...
i still have to tip my cap to llabb he had this one pegged from the outset...to have positions at the ground floor all the way up is a great feeling bc even if it doesnt clear them all you really cant get hurt that much bc the wins will offset the loses...sadly for me im not sitting in the same boat as he
HP will we see...one thing i like is if he is calling it an over on the west coast...that is a good sign bc i wasnt gonna put a lot of stock in his early #s on this movie bc its on the total opposite country of where this movie will do good #s....PHILLY (especially) and NYC which isnt far away...i think we have that on our side as well...im sure Philly shows are doing much better business than anywhere in the country...
this is just a few posts ive read...i think this one is similar to borat when people were just all over it...
Saw the 6:45 PM show. Theatre was 60% full (Theatre holds 617) The 8:00 PM show was sold out (theatre it was in also holds 617). I live just outside Philadelphia.
Germantown, MD (suburb of Wash, D.C) at 7:25....I got there at 6:30 and the theater was literally empty...stayed that way until about 6:50, then little by little it started filling out....by 7:20 it was more than 3/4 full...most memorable viewer a 20-something kid wearing gloves and an almost authetnic Rocky robe, complete with Shamrock meat logo on the back!
7:25 showing in North Jersey...about 95% full, and cheering in the beginning, during the computer generated fight, after his speech to his son, during the training montage, and all through the fight...great way to end the series
Baltimore checking in : My 1000 seat theater was half full, people laughed at Paulie's great lines and cheered during the fight. When I left, there was line of people waiting to get in. I was suprised at the turn out.
I saw it in Rockland County N.Y. at the Loews/AMC 21 theater multiplex at the Palisades Center. We were in the largest of the 21 theaters with a 500 plus seating capacity and it was sold out.
Saw it in Mayfield, OH (East suburb of Cleveland). 60-70% full, and everyone seemed to like it. I loved every minute of it.
we will see if its these accounts are true or not tomorrow...but im liking what ive heard so far...
Saw the 6:45 PM show. Theatre was 60% full (Theatre holds 617) The 8:00 PM show was sold out (theatre it was in also holds 617). I live just outside Philadelphia.
Germantown, MD (suburb of Wash, D.C) at 7:25....I got there at 6:30 and the theater was literally empty...stayed that way until about 6:50, then little by little it started filling out....by 7:20 it was more than 3/4 full...most memorable viewer a 20-something kid wearing gloves and an almost authetnic Rocky robe, complete with Shamrock meat logo on the back!
7:25 showing in North Jersey...about 95% full, and cheering in the beginning, during the computer generated fight, after his speech to his son, during the training montage, and all through the fight...great way to end the series
Baltimore checking in : My 1000 seat theater was half full, people laughed at Paulie's great lines and cheered during the fight. When I left, there was line of people waiting to get in. I was suprised at the turn out.
I saw it in Rockland County N.Y. at the Loews/AMC 21 theater multiplex at the Palisades Center. We were in the largest of the 21 theaters with a 500 plus seating capacity and it was sold out.
Saw it in Mayfield, OH (East suburb of Cleveland). 60-70% full, and everyone seemed to like it. I loved every minute of it.
we will see if its these accounts are true or not tomorrow...but im liking what ive heard so far...
Rocky looks strongly like a winner to me, guys, by the gauges I use and the internal reports I've seen, confirming that Rocky is having a very strong day. We'll find out tomorrow for sure. I was going to wait until tomorrow's number to have the high probability and comfort of a Rocky win before doing this, but I can't wait - I think the opportunity is too strong, and I am confident enough in it, to take more of the Museum Over at these low odds.
I just initiated a new position on Museum Over 31 at good odds, and it's now in the -130's. This is still a great value imo, which has been made available by the scalpers. When the line changed to 31, it started at -180/+160, and that was the fair Pinny line, but it only got driven down because people had positions on the Over from earlier, so they locked in their win.
Now, the odds on the Over are too low, the scalpers have finished (line has settled for many hours now), and the upwards Over should resume. That is the exact same pattern that happened with Rocky all week, and is happening with Museum now.
So sheerly due to math and odds and betting positions, this is a great play, even if you know nothing about the movie. Utah once said, if you watch the line, you can recognize certain situations and profit no matter what you think of the movie. Regardless of your personal opinion on the movie, if you follow this thread and the line movements, it's pretty clear that this is most likely to be going up again on Thursday.
And at reasonable odds, you can take a position, and exit it on Friday morning if you feel you need to, probably locking in an arb and perhaps a middle. The last line change on Rocky came at 11am ET this morning. So line changes could continue to happen for Museum through Friday morning.
I just initiated a new position on Museum Over 31 at good odds, and it's now in the -130's. This is still a great value imo, which has been made available by the scalpers. When the line changed to 31, it started at -180/+160, and that was the fair Pinny line, but it only got driven down because people had positions on the Over from earlier, so they locked in their win.
Now, the odds on the Over are too low, the scalpers have finished (line has settled for many hours now), and the upwards Over should resume. That is the exact same pattern that happened with Rocky all week, and is happening with Museum now.
So sheerly due to math and odds and betting positions, this is a great play, even if you know nothing about the movie. Utah once said, if you watch the line, you can recognize certain situations and profit no matter what you think of the movie. Regardless of your personal opinion on the movie, if you follow this thread and the line movements, it's pretty clear that this is most likely to be going up again on Thursday.
And at reasonable odds, you can take a position, and exit it on Friday morning if you feel you need to, probably locking in an arb and perhaps a middle. The last line change on Rocky came at 11am ET this morning. So line changes could continue to happen for Museum through Friday morning.
If anyone is entering this thread new, or if anyone doesn't have a position yet and wants one, I think it's a good time. Not only do I think that, I just took one myself.
Some people fall into the trap of, "Oh, the line started much lower, I don't know if I can take it this high, at these odds." Forget that. You missed out earlier, don't make the same mistake again. Just look at the fair analysis of whether it will go Over or Under the current line. So look at the analysis above. There's definitely plenty of it.
If you want the quick version, Ben Stiller movies are money in the bank. All of the comps for a normal mainstream Stiller movie have gone Over $31 million, inflation-adjusted. And this movie should do even better, since it appeals to a wider range of demographics. But because those demographics are not sports bettors, the Over has been undervalued, which gives it significant value and makes it a good wager.
For the line analysis, in my estimations, this $31m line has a lot of value on the Over up through at least -180. In fact, -180 was the fair value line that Pinny started at, so that confirms my calculations. Think about it this way: people were plenty willing to pay up to -280 and beyond for the Over $29, which is why the line bumped up. They should certainly be willing to pay 100 cents less for a slightly higher line. With that type of discount, it looks like a bargain.
And there was rationale for this move, it's not just blind line movement and mass herds following the trend. Reports came out showing that the movie would perform very strongly this weekend. This just confirms what I've said all along, that the original Pinny starting points for the lines were way too low. They should have started at 29, then moved gradually to 33.
Now we're at the mid-way point, at 31. Which means that there's great opportunity for the Over and at least one more likely line bump imo to 33. My fair estimate calculations show value on the Over 31 to the near -200 range, value on Over 32 to the near -160 range, and value on the Over 33 to the near -120 range. As you can see, it becomes a near fair line at 33, perhaps between 33-34 for even money.
Yes, these are just one man's thoughts, but my calculations and predictions for this movie so far have been right on the money. If you blindly followed this thread, you'd have made money no matter where you bought, and have the opportunity to lock in arbs and middles. If you continue taking the Over right now, the same will be true until a line of 33 (or very high odds at 32) imo.
My calculations and line estimations look like they were very accurate this week for Rocky, and that that play should be a winner. I feel just as strongly about Night at the Museum. Enjoy the play, as these were both high 4*'s.
Some people fall into the trap of, "Oh, the line started much lower, I don't know if I can take it this high, at these odds." Forget that. You missed out earlier, don't make the same mistake again. Just look at the fair analysis of whether it will go Over or Under the current line. So look at the analysis above. There's definitely plenty of it.
If you want the quick version, Ben Stiller movies are money in the bank. All of the comps for a normal mainstream Stiller movie have gone Over $31 million, inflation-adjusted. And this movie should do even better, since it appeals to a wider range of demographics. But because those demographics are not sports bettors, the Over has been undervalued, which gives it significant value and makes it a good wager.
For the line analysis, in my estimations, this $31m line has a lot of value on the Over up through at least -180. In fact, -180 was the fair value line that Pinny started at, so that confirms my calculations. Think about it this way: people were plenty willing to pay up to -280 and beyond for the Over $29, which is why the line bumped up. They should certainly be willing to pay 100 cents less for a slightly higher line. With that type of discount, it looks like a bargain.
And there was rationale for this move, it's not just blind line movement and mass herds following the trend. Reports came out showing that the movie would perform very strongly this weekend. This just confirms what I've said all along, that the original Pinny starting points for the lines were way too low. They should have started at 29, then moved gradually to 33.
Now we're at the mid-way point, at 31. Which means that there's great opportunity for the Over and at least one more likely line bump imo to 33. My fair estimate calculations show value on the Over 31 to the near -200 range, value on Over 32 to the near -160 range, and value on the Over 33 to the near -120 range. As you can see, it becomes a near fair line at 33, perhaps between 33-34 for even money.
Yes, these are just one man's thoughts, but my calculations and predictions for this movie so far have been right on the money. If you blindly followed this thread, you'd have made money no matter where you bought, and have the opportunity to lock in arbs and middles. If you continue taking the Over right now, the same will be true until a line of 33 (or very high odds at 32) imo.
My calculations and line estimations look like they were very accurate this week for Rocky, and that that play should be a winner. I feel just as strongly about Night at the Museum. Enjoy the play, as these were both high 4*'s.
With the Rocky line closed and looking like a winner (although some shares/wagers are still available on TradeSports and Matchbook), I've been looking more into Night at the Museum. Like I haven't done enough research and writing already, right? 
Here are the details.
For Museum, which headlines Ben Stiller and appeals to families, kids, and all demos, the Ben Stiller comps all scream Over. To go Under, this movie would have to underperform them (and by a significant amount, inflation-adjusted), even at a line of $31 million. Yes, it's a different type of movie than Stiller's standard, and it's slightly different demos, but I think that means that it does better, not worse.
This could even be Stiller's Bruce Almighty (the mainstream movie that appealed to all, not just Jim Carrey fans, and way outperformed Carrey's already lofty track record by gathering an insane $68 million) or his Talladega Nights (with $47 million, same thing for Will Ferrell). Those two movies were enormously huge, so I'm not even going to compare them with a detailed breakdown, I'm just saying that the same factors and circumstances are there.
Those 2 comedic actors were coming into their prime and headlining their brands of comedy for $30 million movies, and then when they appealed to a wider demographic, not just teens/young adults and their particular fans, the movies reached massive breakout success in the high $40's and $60's. Even though their regular fans might not think it's a completely good fit, or too "nice" or young-skewing. Look at Bruce Almighty - generic concept, no crazy Carrey hijinks, just a mainstream comedy that also appeals to families, with a moral message at the end.
At worst case imo, this is his Click - Adam Sandler's family comedy that did more moderately, because it looked absolutely awful to his normal fans although more appealing to families. And yet Click still hit $40 million, and tracked with or outperformed his regular blockbuster movies.
So I see huge upside here, and not much downside, as even with the downside, it could still easily go Over the $31 line imo. It's only b/c Pinny started the line so low (and that's only b/c they screwed up last weekend) that it looks high now. As said several times in this thread, $29 should have been the starting point, with the line getting bumped several times to $33 being a fair line imo. At the mid-way point of $31, there is still significant value, and it could hit $33 by Friday morning imo.
Furthermore for Museum, by the marketing, even if you look at the downside, it's not a bomb that teens and young adults are not going to want to see. It's just that older 20's singles will be a little less high on it. But any of them with family may end up seeing it anyway, it's not like they're opposed, just not enthused. At least by WOM among people I know. As an older 20's male, I didn't see any Museum marketing - at all - until this week. Everywhere else on the Net had been reporting huge marketing for the past several weeks, presumably to families, so hitting teens and below, as well as hitting mid-30's and up. But missing the 20's. Well, as of this week, it's hitting hard. I have seen a *ton* of Museum marketing, and so have people I know. Females in my age range are particularly interested.
And compared to most Stiller movies, the demos outside of his normal range are waaay more attractive. Huge hit with kids and families, and therefore review-proof. Doesn't even matter if it gets bad reviews (although it's fine, at 50% RT, 100% users, 50 MC, 9.4 users). Fan ratings show that it's doing really well with audiences.
It should also be a huge hit with seniors, with Robin Williams featured, as well as legends Dick Van Dyke and Mickey Rooney. Seniors even went to see Robin Williams in freaking R.V. and Man of the Year, which outperformed expectations. Moms plus kids plus seniors are what drives the holiday family box office - I mean, you need something that the whole family can watch together - are the 20 year olds going to talk back to their moms and have the family see some violent thing like Apocalypto when they have a 10 year old sister and a 70 year old grandma? So young guys and dads will go see Rocky on their own, but when the family goes to see a movie, it will be Night at the Museum. The whole entire family, even those that are only mildly interested. Cha-ching!
As a minor addition, there are other cameos getting airtime like Owen Wilson, plus character actors in Ricky Gervais (Office), Carla Gugino, Brad Garrett, Steve Coogan, etc. are all additional draws. There really is something for everyone in this movie. And the stars have hit the entire talk show circuit (Conan, Leno, Letterman, cable shows, etc.) and marketing rounds, so the WOM is out there.
Also, there have been no big holiday movies, this year, not a single big hit. This is it. The box office is screaming for something. Even if this year settled for Happy Feet as the biggest holiday film, that's a huge disappointment compared to the past 5 years. And Museum can do 30% less than Happy Feet and still go Over. And reports called for Museum to be the giant Christmas blockbuster of the season.
Plus, you have the opposite of the Rocky effect. For Rocky, every online bettor wants it to do well and hit the Over. The demo is young sports males, I mean what better demo to hit the Over on a sportsbook?
Night at the Museum has the complete opposite effect going on, which means that it's undervalued. It's families, kids, seniors, females, and only males last, although it's fine and amenable to them. So you have the worst correlation of demos to bettors. So the line rising has only been due to the total mispricing imo by Pinny.
In fact, that's what's constraining the Over right now, the young male bettors who see this movie and go "meh". Rocky went up and up and up, but Museum is hitting a cap, b/c of online bettors not seeing the widespread appeal of this movie. You can even see that in this thread, that just about everyone and their mother are on Rocky, while there is occasional resistance to the Over play on Museum. That's because they just don't get the appeal.
So, even more than Rocky, which was also underpriced, Night at the Museum is severely undervalued imo, and the Over has good value until $33. Just like I added to an already good Rocky position, I am adding to an already good Museum position, even at current lines.
Because there is more time until opening, I could see there perhaps being more line bumps in store for Museum over the next couple days, again creating strong arb/middle opportunities.
Here are the details.For Museum, which headlines Ben Stiller and appeals to families, kids, and all demos, the Ben Stiller comps all scream Over. To go Under, this movie would have to underperform them (and by a significant amount, inflation-adjusted), even at a line of $31 million. Yes, it's a different type of movie than Stiller's standard, and it's slightly different demos, but I think that means that it does better, not worse.
This could even be Stiller's Bruce Almighty (the mainstream movie that appealed to all, not just Jim Carrey fans, and way outperformed Carrey's already lofty track record by gathering an insane $68 million) or his Talladega Nights (with $47 million, same thing for Will Ferrell). Those two movies were enormously huge, so I'm not even going to compare them with a detailed breakdown, I'm just saying that the same factors and circumstances are there.
Those 2 comedic actors were coming into their prime and headlining their brands of comedy for $30 million movies, and then when they appealed to a wider demographic, not just teens/young adults and their particular fans, the movies reached massive breakout success in the high $40's and $60's. Even though their regular fans might not think it's a completely good fit, or too "nice" or young-skewing. Look at Bruce Almighty - generic concept, no crazy Carrey hijinks, just a mainstream comedy that also appeals to families, with a moral message at the end.
At worst case imo, this is his Click - Adam Sandler's family comedy that did more moderately, because it looked absolutely awful to his normal fans although more appealing to families. And yet Click still hit $40 million, and tracked with or outperformed his regular blockbuster movies.
So I see huge upside here, and not much downside, as even with the downside, it could still easily go Over the $31 line imo. It's only b/c Pinny started the line so low (and that's only b/c they screwed up last weekend) that it looks high now. As said several times in this thread, $29 should have been the starting point, with the line getting bumped several times to $33 being a fair line imo. At the mid-way point of $31, there is still significant value, and it could hit $33 by Friday morning imo.
Furthermore for Museum, by the marketing, even if you look at the downside, it's not a bomb that teens and young adults are not going to want to see. It's just that older 20's singles will be a little less high on it. But any of them with family may end up seeing it anyway, it's not like they're opposed, just not enthused. At least by WOM among people I know. As an older 20's male, I didn't see any Museum marketing - at all - until this week. Everywhere else on the Net had been reporting huge marketing for the past several weeks, presumably to families, so hitting teens and below, as well as hitting mid-30's and up. But missing the 20's. Well, as of this week, it's hitting hard. I have seen a *ton* of Museum marketing, and so have people I know. Females in my age range are particularly interested.
And compared to most Stiller movies, the demos outside of his normal range are waaay more attractive. Huge hit with kids and families, and therefore review-proof. Doesn't even matter if it gets bad reviews (although it's fine, at 50% RT, 100% users, 50 MC, 9.4 users). Fan ratings show that it's doing really well with audiences.
It should also be a huge hit with seniors, with Robin Williams featured, as well as legends Dick Van Dyke and Mickey Rooney. Seniors even went to see Robin Williams in freaking R.V. and Man of the Year, which outperformed expectations. Moms plus kids plus seniors are what drives the holiday family box office - I mean, you need something that the whole family can watch together - are the 20 year olds going to talk back to their moms and have the family see some violent thing like Apocalypto when they have a 10 year old sister and a 70 year old grandma? So young guys and dads will go see Rocky on their own, but when the family goes to see a movie, it will be Night at the Museum. The whole entire family, even those that are only mildly interested. Cha-ching!
As a minor addition, there are other cameos getting airtime like Owen Wilson, plus character actors in Ricky Gervais (Office), Carla Gugino, Brad Garrett, Steve Coogan, etc. are all additional draws. There really is something for everyone in this movie. And the stars have hit the entire talk show circuit (Conan, Leno, Letterman, cable shows, etc.) and marketing rounds, so the WOM is out there.
Also, there have been no big holiday movies, this year, not a single big hit. This is it. The box office is screaming for something. Even if this year settled for Happy Feet as the biggest holiday film, that's a huge disappointment compared to the past 5 years. And Museum can do 30% less than Happy Feet and still go Over. And reports called for Museum to be the giant Christmas blockbuster of the season.
Plus, you have the opposite of the Rocky effect. For Rocky, every online bettor wants it to do well and hit the Over. The demo is young sports males, I mean what better demo to hit the Over on a sportsbook?
Night at the Museum has the complete opposite effect going on, which means that it's undervalued. It's families, kids, seniors, females, and only males last, although it's fine and amenable to them. So you have the worst correlation of demos to bettors. So the line rising has only been due to the total mispricing imo by Pinny.
In fact, that's what's constraining the Over right now, the young male bettors who see this movie and go "meh". Rocky went up and up and up, but Museum is hitting a cap, b/c of online bettors not seeing the widespread appeal of this movie. You can even see that in this thread, that just about everyone and their mother are on Rocky, while there is occasional resistance to the Over play on Museum. That's because they just don't get the appeal.
So, even more than Rocky, which was also underpriced, Night at the Museum is severely undervalued imo, and the Over has good value until $33. Just like I added to an already good Rocky position, I am adding to an already good Museum position, even at current lines.
Because there is more time until opening, I could see there perhaps being more line bumps in store for Museum over the next couple days, again creating strong arb/middle opportunities.
Okay, I figured out something that could help us all. Over the last couple weeks, we've seen that the line often changes on a movie. Perhaps not as much as Night at the Museum and Rocky's 4-5 line changes, but at least once or twice. And there are often good bets at each line, both ways.
But if you're sitting on a good position, and then take other good positions at the new lines, sometimes you get an unbalanced total position. And you can't go back to the old line to take more of one of those sides. And if you try to hedge back out at the new line, it's moved so much that it'd cost you way too much.
So you end up with middles and reverse (Polish) middles. Sometimes that's a good thing, as everybody likes a good middle, especially if you can get it for free, or arb it. Usually, people end up paying some number of cents in juice for it, but they just ignore it, and calculate it into the total odds of their position.
Well, what if you want more of that middle? What if there are holes in your position, because you bought some Over and hedged some Under at each line, but not equally? Consider the following sample position of Rocky:
Under 24 lose $400
24-25 win $800
25-26 lose $200
Over 26 win $300
Well, let's say for example that you're looking extremely good to not lose money on Under 24, as it should go Over that, but you're not sure by how much. You now mainly want to win on almost any range of Over 24. But your basic play in this position is Over 26 to win $300. However, you would win a big middle on 24-25, but in fact lose $200 on 25-26.
So what do you do? Sit home and cry, and bite your fingernails at the risk? No, you go out to the RX and get people to balance your position! Because there's probably someone out there who has the opposite case, and might be willing to sell you that 25-26 middle.
You could buy it for good odds, or perhaps you could swap him for some of your 24-25 middle. Because you might feel you don't need all of that potential $800 gain on the middle, at the risk of getting Polish middled on the 25-26. So you give up $500 of the 24-25 middle for $500 of the 25-26 middle, and now you're even. Your new position looks like this:
Under 24 lose $400
24-25 win $300
25-26 win $300
Over 26 win $300
It's a nice way to lock in a balanced position, when the Pinny lines change, or you get lines from somewhere else that don't match. Because it's pretty tough to balance your position by buying and selling at all the different lines, many of which are no longer available. But it's pretty easy just to buy the 1 middle range that you need, or to sell the 1 that you don't need.
But what about the risk, and having to try to negotiate with the other person? Too much hassle, man, and I can't be entirely sure he'll transfer me the money, right? Well, that's why I lobbied Matchbook to put up some middle ranges for us to use. You can take a look by just going to Matchbook.com and clicking on Movies and clicking on either Rocky or Show All Movies.
So it seems that there are a lot of people in this thread on the Over on Rocky, just like me. If you took it at multiple lines, you probably have an odd spot in your position. Take a look, and then go over to Matchbook and make some offers or match some bets.
Or if you see data that you like, and think that you can guess the range, or as daily numbers come in, that you have a good estimate of where it'll end up, you can take the range that you think it will finish in. This is all graded and processed by Matchbook just like their normal wagers, so it carries no risk of making a bet or exchanging positions with another poster.
If this works out, I'm pretty happy that we'll be able to get some liquidity among us, to help balance things out once lines change, and especially once Pinny closes.
But if you're sitting on a good position, and then take other good positions at the new lines, sometimes you get an unbalanced total position. And you can't go back to the old line to take more of one of those sides. And if you try to hedge back out at the new line, it's moved so much that it'd cost you way too much.
So you end up with middles and reverse (Polish) middles. Sometimes that's a good thing, as everybody likes a good middle, especially if you can get it for free, or arb it. Usually, people end up paying some number of cents in juice for it, but they just ignore it, and calculate it into the total odds of their position.
Well, what if you want more of that middle? What if there are holes in your position, because you bought some Over and hedged some Under at each line, but not equally? Consider the following sample position of Rocky:
Under 24 lose $400
24-25 win $800
25-26 lose $200
Over 26 win $300
Well, let's say for example that you're looking extremely good to not lose money on Under 24, as it should go Over that, but you're not sure by how much. You now mainly want to win on almost any range of Over 24. But your basic play in this position is Over 26 to win $300. However, you would win a big middle on 24-25, but in fact lose $200 on 25-26.
So what do you do? Sit home and cry, and bite your fingernails at the risk? No, you go out to the RX and get people to balance your position! Because there's probably someone out there who has the opposite case, and might be willing to sell you that 25-26 middle.
You could buy it for good odds, or perhaps you could swap him for some of your 24-25 middle. Because you might feel you don't need all of that potential $800 gain on the middle, at the risk of getting Polish middled on the 25-26. So you give up $500 of the 24-25 middle for $500 of the 25-26 middle, and now you're even. Your new position looks like this:
Under 24 lose $400
24-25 win $300
25-26 win $300
Over 26 win $300
It's a nice way to lock in a balanced position, when the Pinny lines change, or you get lines from somewhere else that don't match. Because it's pretty tough to balance your position by buying and selling at all the different lines, many of which are no longer available. But it's pretty easy just to buy the 1 middle range that you need, or to sell the 1 that you don't need.
But what about the risk, and having to try to negotiate with the other person? Too much hassle, man, and I can't be entirely sure he'll transfer me the money, right? Well, that's why I lobbied Matchbook to put up some middle ranges for us to use. You can take a look by just going to Matchbook.com and clicking on Movies and clicking on either Rocky or Show All Movies.
So it seems that there are a lot of people in this thread on the Over on Rocky, just like me. If you took it at multiple lines, you probably have an odd spot in your position. Take a look, and then go over to Matchbook and make some offers or match some bets.
Or if you see data that you like, and think that you can guess the range, or as daily numbers come in, that you have a good estimate of where it'll end up, you can take the range that you think it will finish in. This is all graded and processed by Matchbook just like their normal wagers, so it carries no risk of making a bet or exchanging positions with another poster.
If this works out, I'm pretty happy that we'll be able to get some liquidity among us, to help balance things out once lines change, and especially once Pinny closes.
Oh, and for the record, I have no affiliation with Matchbook whatsoever, and don't care about whether they get business or not. But Matchbook and TradeSports are two of the easiest exchanges to use for movies, and Matchbook already offers X-Bets where they allow you to set up your own wagers. So it was easiest for me to just use their form to ask them to set up these ranges.
If you don't have an account at Matchbook, but take a look and want to do this, they have a sign-up special. They offer bets on all normal sports and copy Pinny's lines. They offer them at odds even better than Pinny's, and then if you win, they take out a small commission fee (2%) which is basically the same as Pinny's juice. So when you win, the line ends up being virtually the same as Pinny's.
But for the sign-up special, they offer commission-free trading for two weeks. So you can bet the NFL, NBA, college ball, etc, for odds better than Pinny's for 2 weeks, which is a great bonus if you wager a good volume.
Anyway, if you do sign-up with them, please refer me, and I'll split any bonus I get with you, just PM me. But this is not about that. This is mainly about - let's exchange the parts of our positions that we need to balance!
If you don't have an account at Matchbook, but take a look and want to do this, they have a sign-up special. They offer bets on all normal sports and copy Pinny's lines. They offer them at odds even better than Pinny's, and then if you win, they take out a small commission fee (2%) which is basically the same as Pinny's juice. So when you win, the line ends up being virtually the same as Pinny's.
But for the sign-up special, they offer commission-free trading for two weeks. So you can bet the NFL, NBA, college ball, etc, for odds better than Pinny's for 2 weeks, which is a great bonus if you wager a good volume.
Anyway, if you do sign-up with them, please refer me, and I'll split any bonus I get with you, just PM me. But this is not about that. This is mainly about - let's exchange the parts of our positions that we need to balance!
greek has them up...
i just laid the wood on NATM -260 over 36.5 for the 4days i like this bet much better than pinnys 31 bc this movie will do well on XMAS...i thinkn once again the greek made a bad line...then again they are making you pay for it by laying that much juice...
i bet over 300 to win around 130 and hopefully get me out from my pinny loser and ill pick up a few bucks....
rocky did 6m according to DHD...nothing like having to sweat....more on that later...
i just laid the wood on NATM -260 over 36.5 for the 4days i like this bet much better than pinnys 31 bc this movie will do well on XMAS...i thinkn once again the greek made a bad line...then again they are making you pay for it by laying that much juice...
i bet over 300 to win around 130 and hopefully get me out from my pinny loser and ill pick up a few bucks....
rocky did 6m according to DHD...nothing like having to sweat....more on that later...
llabb you catch oly's lines?
I took some Black Christmas Under myself. If it loses so be it but I need to see it to believe it. Only 1000 theatres or so for this teenish horror which is rated R.
Musuem looks good for the Over although the juice is getting a bit high. Line is still 5x better than Pinny's 31 -160ish right now.
*looks like DHD's 6ish prediction is correct now with nf backing it up with partial numbers, not exactly what we were looking for...
I took some Black Christmas Under myself. If it loses so be it but I need to see it to believe it. Only 1000 theatres or so for this teenish horror which is rated R.
Musuem looks good for the Over although the juice is getting a bit high. Line is still 5x better than Pinny's 31 -160ish right now.
*looks like DHD's 6ish prediction is correct now with nf backing it up with partial numbers, not exactly what we were looking for...
gun to head id take dreamgirls over 3.5 (i fu-king KNEW they were gonna use 3.5 on this and 2.5 on BXMAS)...anyways DG is in 800 theatres you need 4350k to hit the bet...i didnt bet it bc its -205...thats a little too steep and i already laid the 260 on the other movie....
i think their WAM line is too high and i think their GS line is too high in relation to pinnys 3day lines...they both would need 5m on xmas day (monday) if you base the 1st 3days on the pinny total...and getting 5m is not gonna happen
i think their WAM line is too high and i think their GS line is too high in relation to pinnys 3day lines...they both would need 5m on xmas day (monday) if you base the 1st 3days on the pinny total...and getting 5m is not gonna happen
does anyone know what NATM opened up at the greek...if they opened that at -120 they dont know what the fu-k they are doing over there...a fair line is 39-40m for the 4days...simple as that...
i was and still am hoping for a little better rocky#...i hate when the DHD bimbo lowballs before the true #s are in....based on the yahoo reviews if it does come in right at 6 then we got the worst of the worst based on review to actual ratio...like i said im still hoping for a few hundred K over 6M....the reviews are strong which could be huge...
i was and still am hoping for a little better rocky#...i hate when the DHD bimbo lowballs before the true #s are in....based on the yahoo reviews if it does come in right at 6 then we got the worst of the worst based on review to actual ratio...like i said im still hoping for a few hundred K over 6M....the reviews are strong which could be huge...
that SBD # works for me thats for sure...
i go out for a couple hours and the greek lines just keep getting pounded to the sharp sides...
GS now up over -200 to the under
WAM now up to over -200 to the under
NATM now -400 from -260 when i bet it
i wish they took instacash at the greek i couldnt send enough to place more bets bc i ran thru my neteller funds...rats...
i have a strong feeling the greek gonna be back down to those 50maxs next week....
i go out for a couple hours and the greek lines just keep getting pounded to the sharp sides...
GS now up over -200 to the under
WAM now up to over -200 to the under
NATM now -400 from -260 when i bet it
i wish they took instacash at the greek i couldnt send enough to place more bets bc i ran thru my neteller funds...rats...
i have a strong feeling the greek gonna be back down to those 50maxs next week....
I wasn't on this site this morning, but was watching movies, and did catch the Greek's lines. In on NATM Over 36.5m 4-day at -150 and -170. In on Dreamgirls Over 3.5 at -155 and -180. Small Marshall Under at +125 crossed with the Pinny Marshall Over at -136. Looks like that could be a middle.
Greek lines are completely horrible. I'm glad they got back in the game. But to be fair, so were Pinny's this week. Rocky opened WA at 23 and Museum at 26. Look where they ended up.
Greek lines look fair now, with everything at -220 or worse for the winning sides, and the far-and-away-easiest one, NATM at -400. Only possible one is Black Christmas at -150 to the Under. I could see the case for that being an Under, but I'm not great at the small horror genre (okay with the big horror movies, just not the small ones), so I haven't done anything with that yet.
If HPark, Husker, or someone else can research that one (several Christmas horror comps previously out there), that would be great. If not, no biggie. Don't play it blind, though, as Christmas Day is actually the biggest day for small horror movies that open on it, and then they trail off from there. Teens actually want to see them, and go when they're done with family stuff.
Greek lines are completely horrible. I'm glad they got back in the game.
But to be fair, so were Pinny's this week. Rocky opened WA at 23 and Museum at 26. Look where they ended up.Greek lines look fair now, with everything at -220 or worse for the winning sides, and the far-and-away-easiest one, NATM at -400. Only possible one is Black Christmas at -150 to the Under. I could see the case for that being an Under, but I'm not great at the small horror genre (okay with the big horror movies, just not the small ones), so I haven't done anything with that yet.
If HPark, Husker, or someone else can research that one (several Christmas horror comps previously out there), that would be great. If not, no biggie. Don't play it blind, though, as Christmas Day is actually the biggest day for small horror movies that open on it, and then they trail off from there. Teens actually want to see them, and go when they're done with family stuff.
