opinions on how XMAS eve will effect the weekend totals..

[llabb]

I took some more of the Overs on both:

Museum Over 29 -150
Rocky Over 26 -160

These are really strong 4* plays for me now. Could they make it to a 5* play? Perhaps, gonna wait for more signs to see. So I'd recommend a very strong play to all, and perhaps your strongest play available possibly, if current trends continue.

(For those who don't know, as I posted this a long, long time ago now, my scale goes by a 1* to 5* rating system for my movie plays, because I am willing to risk even more on entertainment props like these that have a big edge imo. For regular sports, I stick to 1 or 2 units on a play, perhaps 3 units for a super strong play.

For movies, I use 1-5*'s, with 1* being 1 unit, 2* being 2-3 units, 3* being 4-6 units, 4* being 7-9 units, and 5* being absolutely massive at least 10+ units. My last 5* play was Pirates of the Caribbean 2, where I put over half my bankroll on it, and I made an absolute killing. These 2 movies, Rocky and Museum, are now very strong 4* plays for me, and if things continue, there's a chance they make it into 5* territory.)

 

[llabb]

Thanks, Benny and Utah. Glad to help...hope it works out for us all! Feeling very confident, though.

 

[Bennyshoe]

Thanks, Benny and Utah. Glad to help...hope it works out for us all! Feeling very confident, though.

I hope it's as easy as Pursuit. That was my only play and I went big on it.

I do like how Rocky is getting GOOD reviews for the over. I'm surprised because a year ago when I heard it was coming out I laughed.

 

[llabb]

Yeah, me too. But as someone else pointed out, George Foreman's comeback and championship at 45 makes this possible and not too over-the-top cheesy.

And the movie seems to address that, with that line you keep hearing in the commercials, with Rocky himself saying "Why-uh would I-uh wanna a-come-back. I don't wanna get ah-mangled or nuthin'."

So with that combined with good reviews, it's an acceptable inspiring feel-good movie, not a disaster cheeseball move.

 

[HPark1]

I'm on board with Rocky but will leave NATM alone. Wasn't around last night and missed the earlier numbers but still feel 26-27 should be easily passed. Hopefully I don't get burned by missing the 23-25's. Nothing much to be said about why it will go over. Marketing has been great, awareness is very high and all the internet buzz indicators lead to a strong showing. As mentioned the reviews are solid as well.

just played o26 -180.

 

[llabb]

I think it's a solid Rocky position, HPark. I have some of the same thing, Over 26 at -160, on top of my earlier positions.

Looks like we all agree here. Best wishes to all.

I think Museum is just as strong here, but to each his own.

 

[HuskerFan1]

at this point im basically fu-ked this weekend myself...i didnt bet enough on rocky...i have a bad line on NATM and im going against the grain...that a receipe for distaster if ive ever seen one...lol...

WAM i can buy out of if i choose...im gonna wait and see for now...but i cant play NATM over 29 no matter how big people think it will go...christ my luck it would land 28 and change and id get polished...

what sucks is a week ago i was telling brother NATM was gonna be the next big winner and i got so caught up in XMAS eve falling on sunday i let that totally change my mind on that movie...christ christ christ...

looking like a waste of a week....

 

[HPark1]

I think it's a solid Rocky position, HPark. I have some of the same thing, Over 26 at -160, on top of my earlier positions.

Looks like we all agree here. Best wishes to all.

I think Museum is just as strong here, but to each his own.

Back down to -154 (could just be middlers/scalpers), thinking about another pop but I don't want to unload on this number and get the pschological burning if it hits 24-26. Still I think the number should be close to 30.

About NATM I'm just concerned with a family movie opening on this wierd holiday weekend. Plus some of the basic buzz charts aren't impressing me. There just isn't enough for me to take the plunge right now.

appreciate the tons of info llabb, great writeups.

 

[llabb]

at this point im basically fu-ked this weekend myself...i didnt bet enough on rocky...i have a bad line on NATM and im going against the grain...that a receipe for distaster if ive ever seen one...lol...

WAM i can buy out of if i choose...im gonna wait and see for now...but i cant play NATM over 29 no matter how big people think it will go...christ my luck it would land 28 and change and id get polished...

what sucks is a week ago i was telling brother NATM was gonna be the next big winner and i got so caught up in XMAS eve falling on sunday i let that totally change my mind on that movie...christ christ christ...

looking like a waste of a week....

If you want to play the Museum Over Husker, I can sell you some of a middle. Let me know what middle you want, and I'll think about the odds it would be.

Like I said last week, with the lines changing slightly over the week, it would be really helpful for us all to be able to trade positions. Buying and selling middles or whatnot, for liquidity and to balance our own positions.

I agree with you, that just glancing at the weekend, Museum is the stand-out blockbuster, just like Meet the Fockers (another Ben Stiller movie) was in 2004, getting $46.5 million over the 3-day weekend and $70.5 over the 5-day weekend. And that's with Christmas Eve on Friday, which hurts way worse than Christmas Eve on Sunday, which already normally has a big drop from Saturday, just for a normal weekend and for the multipliers we all assume. So you probably should have gone with your gut on that one, rather than over-weighting the Christmas thing, when examples point otherwise.

Anyway, just let me know what you want to do, I don't mind either way. I just hate it when I have a bad position, especially in regards to middles and Polish middles. So I wouldn't mind balancing them in the future, with whoever can manage it. I have plenty of middle opportunities open to me if I want, so I could lock it in, and sell you the middle, and you could take the Museum Over if you want. Up to you.

 

[llabb]

Back down to -154 (could just be middlers/scalpers), thinking about another pop but I don't want to unload on this number and get the pschological burning if it hits 24-26. Still I think the number should be close to 30.

About NATM I'm just concerned with a family movie opening on this wierd holiday weekend. Plus some of the basic buzz charts aren't impressing me. There just isn't enough for me to take the plunge right now.

appreciate the tons of info llabb, great writeups.

Yeah, the middlers/scalpers are giving us a gift imo. I'd take even more of these plays, but am waiting for more info since I already have a TON of positions on these and have not hedged, even though I could lock in huge middles and arbs if I wanted to.

There's no way the Museum line should be less than -150 on the Over imo, and by the time Thursday rolls around, it will be at -200 or have bumped the line up again imo. So a huge opportunity on the Museum line, as it has been anywhere from -110 to -140, due to middlers/scalpers taking it too early imo.

For the Rocky lines, see my post to Husker above. If you want the 24-26 middle, I can see what I can do.

For the buzz charts, those are weighted towards Internet online fanbases, such as for Rocky and Eragon. Pursuit of Happyness was not tracking on these last week, and it only had 11 advance sales. But it destroyed the weekend, easily winning it, when many thought it would be the #3 movie.

Museum should also destroy this weekend (since a lot of Rocky's sales will come on Wednesday, if it opened on Friday, it would be a lot closer). It's tracking really highly for a mainstream movie geared more towards families. Again, take a look at Meet the Fockers, which opened during Christmas 2 years ago. Just another Ben Stiller movie crushing the box office. Yes, it was a sequel, but it was hurt by Christmas Eve more than this weekend will be.

Museum should get most of the normal Ben Stiller crod PLUS families and kids too. Seniors as well, for Robin Williams (who is a flop among younger people, but still draws seniors, with Man of the Year out-perfoming expectations) and legends such as Dick Van Dyke and Mickey Rooney. Plus there's the dude from the Office (British one) and a host of other cameos and character actors. This one really does have something for everyone, and is tracking well with all demographics.

 

[llabb]

Oh, and I'm pretty sure that for both Museum and Rocky, any downward movements are simply middlers/scalpers. There isn't anyone anywhere that's going Under on these, except for the odd bettor or two. All predictors have Museum easily winning the weekend and going big, while Rocky's 5-day is that big as well, even if the 3-day is not.

I mean, the lines can't skyrocket up forever. It's like the stock market on a stock that should definitely be worth more. It goes up, up, up, then takes a breather, with some people taking profits, then it goes back up, up, up again.

The line has jumped several points on each movie, so they have to take a slight breather by those with cold feet hedging out. Even if they went back down 1 (which they won't do imo, but may eventually jump up 1 again), it would be at high odds now, and there would be plenty of time to take the middle/scalp if you got cold feet also. But that's giving away money, as hedging is -EV over the long run. So once the scalpers settle, which it looks like they have now, with the lines stabilized, it looks like the Overs are good plays again.

So for new bettors who missed last night and this morning, as said earlier, the positions right now are still good lines to bet on. I may also add more, as more info comes in. Because if a couple factors go the way I think they will, the Overs are still severely undervalued at this point. Both are Overs, but the odds are even better, with more value on the Museum Over than the Rocky Over as of now, although both are good plays.

 

[HPark1]

For the buzz charts, those are weighted towards Internet online fanbases, such as for Rocky and Eragon. Pursuit of Happyness was not tracking on these last week, and it only had 11 advance sales. But it destroyed the weekend, easily winning it, when many thought it would be the #3 movie.

Museum should also destroy this weekend (since a lot of Rocky's sales will come on Wednesday, if it opened on Friday, it would be a lot closer). It's tracking really highly for a mainstream movie geared more towards families. Again, take a look at Meet the Fockers, which opened during Christmas 2 years ago. Just another Ben Stiller movie crushing the box office. Yes, it was a sequel, but it was hurt by Christmas Eve more than this weekend will be.

Museum should get most of the normal Ben Stiller crod PLUS families and kids too. Seniors as well, for Robin Williams (who is a flop among younger people, but still draws seniors, with Man of the Year out-perfoming expectations) and legends such as Dick Van Dyke and Mickey Rooney. Plus there's the dude from the Office (British one) and a host of other cameos and character actors. This one really does have something for everyone, and is tracking well with all demographics.

I don't expect NATM to touch Rocky/Eragon type movies buzz but for a 30+ comedy blockbuster I need to see something. Its not impressing me with 39th on the IMBD chart, not registering on the yahoo buzz yet, 18th on bom popular pages list, 10th on yahoo trailers, yet to register on mf etc. Of course its still early but I still had higher expectations at this point.

With a shopping Saturday and Christmas eve Sunday I expect a family movie to suffer slightly. Its tough to compare with Meet the Fockers because it was an adult comedy (rated PG13). And I don't know if all of Ben Stiller's fans want to go see a family comedy.

Don't get me wrong if I had to bet this I'd play the Over but I need to wait to see more.

 

[3DGlasses]

rocky balboa....

My dad hasn't went to a movie in almost 5 years. Today he told me he's dragging my mom to see Rocky Balboa.

I hung up the phone and quickly bet the over.

 

[3DGlasses]

if Rocky's buzz is so good.... how come it just lost about 250 theaters.

From 3000 to 2750.

Not good.

 

[llabb]

Because it's a typo and is really 3,017. Rocky was never projected to get substantially more than 3k theaters. It's fine where it is.

 

[3DGlasses]

... it's 2752 for Wed/Thurs.. and then 3017 for the weekend. (when it's slower)

 

[llabb]

If that's true, which is unverified (unless link pls if you have it), it won't matter much. Wed and the weekend are the big days, and Wed are the fanboys who will drive a short distance if they need to. It's such a small theater difference that a large theater will be readily accessible to the audience. I mean, 2752 is much higher than the other 2 openers aside from Museum anyway. If true, this is only happening because other theaters couldn't get rid of their crappy movies fast enough. Perhaps those 265 theaters had obligations and can't free up screens until the weekend, which is when they will start showing Rocky. Anyway, either way, everything still jives with the initial estimate, and this is a non-factor imo.


A better factor is reviews, and for Rocky, they have gotten even better. 77% RT, 90% COTC, 100% users, 66% MC, 9.3 users. Buzz is building and WOM is spreading.

For reference, The Pursuit of Happyness got 67% RT, 66% COTC, 81% users, 64% MC, 5.4 users. So Rocky is easily beating Pursuit's reviews, is favored by critics, and is a better feel-good story appealing to audiences. Pursuit got $27 million in 3 days at the BO, while Rocky's line is $26 million over 5 days.

Rocky's gonna be awesome, and so should its box office.

 

[HPark1]

Line up to -270 for Balboa. Took a little more last night but was hoping to get a chance to bet it again this morning. Doesn't look like that will be the case, maybe Pinny can change the number, anything under 29 is fine with me. Just would prefer less juice.

I'm really getting the feeling it gets into the 30's. And as llabb mentions the possible theatre count of 2750ish for Wednesday/Thursday is of little significance.

I predict 8/4/8/8/3

 

[HPark1]

http://www.nypost.com/seven/1220200...s_up_big_sales_nationalnews_rita_delfiner.htm

By RITA DELFINER

December 20, 2006 -- Yo! Even before he steps into the ring today, Rocky Balboa is packing a solid punch at the box office.

Sylvester Stallone's sixth film about the uber-underdog boxing champ opens today - and yesterday, it was the top-selling film on Fandango, which sells tickets online for AMC Loews, Regal Entertainment Group and other theaters.

"Rocky Balboa" yesterday accounted for 21 percent of Fandango's ticket sales, followed by "Charlotte's Web," at 14 percent, and "Eragon" and "The Pursuit of Happyness," both with 12 percent.

Hollywood Reporter online columnist Martin Grove said yesterday, "I would expect that 'Rocky Balboa' will be one of the box-office champions this weekend."

Some people are betting on it. At Sportsbook.com, an online sports book and casino, bettors wagered on whether they think the movie will generate over $26 million - or under - in its first weekend.

Since betting on the question began Monday, 87 percent of bettors wagered that it would top $26 million. Betting ends later today.

 

[llabb]

Fantastic news! If current reports hold up, Rocky should destroy the lines, all of them, every one.

Your estimate looks fine HPark, although if it breaks down that way, it would be a slightly higher Sunday for 8/4/8/8/4 = 32. I'm looking for near 30 total, but it doesn't matter since the line is still only 27, even after several upwards bumps.