I think Obama's "spread the wealth" comment could be fatal.
I'm getting a ton of emails from people that are really alarmed...they didn't know he was a Socialist.
Oops...looks like a Dukakis moment.
Joe the Plumber brings Obama down? :missingte
I think Obama's "spread the wealth" comment could be fatal.
I'm getting a ton of emails from people that are really alarmed...they didn't know he was a Socialist.
Oops...looks like a Dukakis moment.
Joe the Plumber brings Obama down? :missingte
The electoral college is the only vote that matters. Party is over boys! Check the latest CNN Electoral Map.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
Sorry Tedster, but the EC is closer than the national polls. Many states are still in play. The swing states are actually closer than the national polls, so I couldn't disagree more.
I've said all along he needs to slightly change the electorate. He changed the electorate of the primary.....the general electorate isn't going to look like 04...pretty sure you can take that to the bank. It may not look like where they have it and other pollsters are projecting...maybe somewhere in between. I don't think he's up 10 either as some lefties say....I've said I think this race will be settle between 3-6 (maybe 4-6) the rest of the way (RCP avg...not just one poll)....McCain is due for a mini surge nationally.
If it comes down to organization and money...Obama has a decisive edge in both.
More importantly, McCain needs to close the number in these battleground state polls.
Virginia should scare the shit out of him...especially since he's basically dark with no paid media in the vote rich part of the state (NOVA) where the last two statewides (Kaine, Webb) were won by driving up huge vote margins...he doesn't have many win scenarios without Virginia.
National #'s aren't his problem...he needs to win all these battlegrounds...and although close and winnable in most...there are so many of them for him to pull off. It may just come down to Obama has too much money.
what about the softness in "expanded" polling numbers? They are obviously assuming Obama has a big advantage with the new voters and that these voters are going to vote. A 4 to 6 point built in advantage based on a hypothetical that never worked before?
Will 1% of women change their vote on election day? That's a 2% swing. 10% changed their mind in New Hampshire, a 20 point swing.
Will racism impact the results by 1 or 2%? or maybe more?
To me, this is an unprecedented set of circumstances. There is a great deal of uncertainty within the numbers.
Will 1% of women change their vote on election day? That's a 2% swing. 10% changed their mind in New Hampshire, a 20 point swing.
Will racism impact the results by 1 or 2%? or maybe more?
To me, this is an unprecedented set of circumstances. There is a great deal of uncertainty within the numbers.
So what states do you have out of swing status? What red states are a blue lock? The two most recent polls out of CO have Obama plus 4, that ain't no lock.
Are you serious? You're a joke...yesterday you cited a debate poll and tried to pawn it off as a GE poll to show Kerry was beating Bush in late October...today this.
Show me the 121 million bucks. Wait, I'll do it for you...dark green is primary money...both took public financing.
<table style="margin-top: 15px;" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="rowTint"><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">George W. Bush (R)</td><td>
$367,228,801</td></tr><tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">John Kerry (D)</td><td>
$328,479,245</td></tr><tr class="rowTint"><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">Ralph Nader (3)</td><td>
$4,567,299</td></tr><tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">Michael Badnarik (L)</td><td>
$1,093,013</td></tr><tr class="rowTint"><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">Michael Peroutka (3)</td><td>
$709,087</td></tr><tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">David Cobb (3)</td><td>
$496,658</td></tr></tbody></table>Also, Bush had one of the best ground games ever (one Obama has attempted to produce in structure)....they turned out every Republican imaginable..just look at party ID of the electorate. Credit to Rove and company and the stragic placing of initiatives on ballots...they did great.
I can't help it you guys are ignorant...you sure get pissed when I point it out. :howdy:
John KERRY and the Democrats outspent Mr. Bush and the GOP in 2004 by $121 million and still lost.
Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale
Both candidates continue to tinker with their strategies.
By KARL ROVE
Commentary AP
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122411909182439021.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_mostpop
Click on the link I provided. I've got CNN on all day long everyday. Their projections are extremely accurate. The map speaks for itself. Just check it out.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
Are you serious? You're a joke...yesterday you cited a debate poll and tried to pawn it off as a GE poll to show Kerry was beating Bush in late October...today this.
Show me the 121 million bucks. Wait, I'll do it for you...dark green is primary money...both took public financing.
<TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 15px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=rowTint><TD noWrap align=right>George W. Bush (R)</TD><TD>
Also, Bush had one of the best ground games ever (one Obama has attempted to produce in structure)....they turned out every Republican imaginable..just look at party ID of the electorate. Credit to Rove and company and the stragic placing of initiatives on ballots...they did great.
My quote comes from Rove...LOL.
Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale
Both candidates continue to tinker with their strategies.
By KARL ROVE
Commentary AP
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1224...gn2008_mostpop <!-- / message -->
If Obama wins Virginia, he'll win. CNN is giving him Virginia. I cannot believe the Virginia numbers under the votes are counted.
RCP much more diversified and thus probably more accurate than CNN.
In 2004, Kerry won, remember.
In 2000, they declared Florida for Gore at 8:15, then had to withdraw their call 3 hours later.
I'm sorry, but there is reason to believe these numbers are more questionable than any numbers we've ever seen.
RCP much more diversified and thus probably more accurate than CNN.
In 2004, Kerry won, remember.
In 2000, they declared Florida for Gore at 8:15, then had to withdraw their call 3 hours later.
I'm sorry, but there is reason to believe these numbers are more questionable than any numbers we've ever seen.
I've also said a few times....In a country where a black candidate has won only a handful top of the ticket races, I won't believe it until election night. I have never claimed this race to be over.
Look, I was at a Penn State tailgate before the primaries in September with a guy close to the Obama campaign. We were talking and this was a time when Obama wasn't having any traction nationally....not doing much. I asked him...do you have a shot of getting past Clinton.
His reply: "If we turn out new voters, irregular voters, & black voters we will be in the thick of things."
I literally laughed at him....these are things that losing campaigns rely on.....non-traditional voters and new registrants.
They did it in the primary...they turned out new voters in the primary...turned out black irregular voters....turned out new registrants.
They may be over hyping it a lot but if you think that it will look like it did in 2004...you're wrong. It won't.
:nono5: Shhhhh....let all the lazy Dems think they have a landslide.
They never show up at the polls anyway...ACORN's new registrants will just have another bong and watch the "landslide" on the boob tube. :aktion033
For what's it worth I think VA is closer too.......But he literally hasn't been up on TV (the last two weeks at least) in the DC market. 8 ads...8 ads...to about 1000+. If Obama can get 60% there it's tough to overcome in the rest of the state. This is a region tied into DC more so than any other in the country too. He also has Webb & Warner stumping for him.
My quote comes from Rove...LOL.
Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale
Both candidates continue to tinker with their strategies.
By KARL ROVE
Commentary AP
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1224...gn2008_mostpop <!-- / message -->
No spin there at all...just facts.
Like to see how he came up with those numbers.
If you add in the 527's the spending is probably even bigger of a difference.
