I'll give you that wager Judge, if you do likewise and give me McCain +14. Two separate but equal bets.
I didn't know this thread was about the Democratic National Defense plan.
Gallup traditional polling of LVs now down to two, interesting:think2:
Gallup modified trying to speculate about young voter turnout still at 6.
I wonder how many of these polls are building in their speculation about "increased" young voter turnout?
This year more than any other year there are different variables in play.
Besides the aforementioned speculation about new voter turnout, what factor will race and / or sex play in this election? A mere 1% swing in those two variables results in a 4 point swing, the difference in toss-up states. It appears there's also a few more % points built into the polling data to Obama's advantage for this new voter turnout assumption.
Could be very interesting on election night.
Gallup modified trying to speculate about young voter turnout still at 6.
I wonder how many of these polls are building in their speculation about "increased" young voter turnout?
This year more than any other year there are different variables in play.
Besides the aforementioned speculation about new voter turnout, what factor will race and / or sex play in this election? A mere 1% swing in those two variables results in a 4 point swing, the difference in toss-up states. It appears there's also a few more % points built into the polling data to Obama's advantage for this new voter turnout assumption.
Could be very interesting on election night.
