Heat go scoreless in the last few minutes of game and cost us the cover..With 1:30 left in the 4th, Heat could not take advantage of 2 offensive possessions to bring them within 1 point..huge defensive play by Ginobli (block on Wade) and a 3-pointer on the other side effectively put the cover out of reach..the better team made the plays down the stretch and won, simple as that...
Ended up 2-1 in the New Jersey game as a slow start, horrendous free throw shooting, and sloppy play (missed layups etc.) cost us the over..but hit the nets whole game wager and 2nd half wager, for a 2-1 result..I'll take it
Ended up 2-1 in the New Jersey game as a slow start, horrendous free throw shooting, and sloppy play (missed layups etc.) cost us the over..but hit the nets whole game wager and 2nd half wager, for a 2-1 result..I'll take it
An absolutely unreal finish in Bucs game to force the push on my investment play...anyone watching that knows exactly what I mean..unreal..Ended up hitting the 2nd half play on the Bucs, but it stung to push on the Investment play, as that should have been another W in the win column...nothing you can do, but take it and move on..
Pacers did make a game of it, but again, could not make stops through stretches and got outscored by 15 points in the 4th quarter...
In my write up, I briefly mentioned Denver's potential to explode on offense, and the problems that could pose for a very vulnerable Indiana "D", I used this angle, to steer me away from making the play an investment..perhaps, I should have let the same line of reasoning, steer me away from making it a play period, probably a mental error on my part..but Indiana has been good to me all year, so I won't complain much
I cap games in the NBA the same day they're played ..so I'll hit you back then..but to be totally honest, I enjoy analyzing games...and the Knicks against Thunder doesn't sound like a game I'd enjoy capping :nono5:
:lol:
Probably end up taking a look anyway..Be back tomorrow..
Numberz
Trouble about betting the Knicks, especially in a pick em situation, is their reliance on 3-point shooting makes the wager too much of a gamble imo..if they are hitting a decent percentage, there is a chance you will cover, or in this case there is a chance they will win the game..(that is of course, if they don't give up so many points on Defense, to where their 3pt FG % only matters in terms of covering the over) :missingte
I use a number of different angles to cap games..
Here are a few that might work against backing the Knicks..
1. Knicks may be in a let down spot...considering that they are coming off a HUGE upset to Boston where they held Boston to one of their lowest scoring games of the season, the emotional exhaustion resulting from such an upset, could become a factor in tonight's game and work against the Knicks..
2. Line movement..or in this case, lack thereof..high volume of bets coming in on the Knicks and the line has not budged..continue to monitor up until just prior to tip-off, and if line does not move, I say there is reason for concern..
3. Thunder are a terrible team, no one will argue that..but they are 21-13 ATS, which should also be cause for concern..I understand that this situation is a bit different, considering the game is virtually a pick, and you're not really playing a number, but still..
4. Thunder have reached a point in their season, (managed only 4 wins thus far), where they are desperate for wins, they'll take them anywhere they can..playing at home against a horrible Knicks "D" might present itself as a good opportunity..Thunder score the ball well against sub-par defenses..and the Knicks are clearly sub-par..they give up an average of 107 pts per contest..
5. Eddie Curry, might be back for tonight's game..he does not fit well within the system that D'Antoni runs on offense..not sure how much he will play, but Curry, imo, is more of an obstacle for his team's success than he is an asset..but keep in mind, ur talking to a Bulls fan, so my perception of Curry could not be any worst than what it is..
6. No real value in the line, considering that the Knicks are a horrible road team, taking them as favorites on the road, is a gamble to say the least..
I can go on, but the thought of this game being played, is beginning to make me sick
uke1: :lol:If I do make a play, it will be on the Thunder and the over..still have not decided..but REMEMBER, don't let anyone take you off a game you like..if you really feel it, go with your gut..you'll only have yourself to be upset with if it hits and you do not bet it..I hope this helps..
GL with whatever you decide..
Numberz
Pass on the 3 early games..
Bos/Cha total, is so low that the value has been sucked out for any possible play on the under..slightly leaning Bobcats +9 but cannot pull the trigger, as Celtics may play inspired ball tonight considering their recent play..
Injury situation for Rockets, makes this game difficult to cap..plus don't really see value in the line where it is..
In capping the magic game I'm leaning on Magic but never play numbers that high..total, is tight, imo..
Might be a good day for me to pass altogether..we'll see..I'll be around to talk for a bit..
GL with ur action tonight!
Numberz
Bos/Cha total, is so low that the value has been sucked out for any possible play on the under..slightly leaning Bobcats +9 but cannot pull the trigger, as Celtics may play inspired ball tonight considering their recent play..
Injury situation for Rockets, makes this game difficult to cap..plus don't really see value in the line where it is..
In capping the magic game I'm leaning on Magic but never play numbers that high..total, is tight, imo..
Might be a good day for me to pass altogether..we'll see..I'll be around to talk for a bit..
GL with ur action tonight!
Numberz
Buying half point. (first 2)
Action Plays
Hawks/Magic Over 191
Atlanta Hawks -1
Hornets/Jazz Under 191
T-Wolves/Thunder over 202
Will most likely upgrade Hawks/Magic Over 191, to an investment play..
still needs to pass few more tests, for me to pull trigger on it.
But so far so good
Numberz
Action Plays
Hawks/Magic Over 191
Atlanta Hawks -1
Hornets/Jazz Under 191
T-Wolves/Thunder over 202
Will most likely upgrade Hawks/Magic Over 191, to an investment play..
still needs to pass few more tests, for me to pull trigger on it.
But so far so good
Numberz
Action Plays
Hawks/Magic Over 191
For two teams who love to shoot the 3 ball, this number should not be too difficult to surpass..ORL is 2nd only to NY, in 3 pt attempts, and ATL is not too far behind..Both teams come in with hot shooters as well, Jameer Nelson 25-of-47 (53%) in his L9, and Mike Bibby 24-of-42 (57%) in his L7, from beyond the arc..an abundance of offensive weapons for both teams has me thinking Over..Really feel that 1 of these teams will hit the century mark with the other not too far behind..the effective 3 pt shooting of both teams is only a plus, both teams have players who can create of the dribble and score the ball in the paint as well..In their 1st matchup, on opening night, ORL shot 16% from beyond the arc and 36% from the field, well below their season average..ATL also shot the ball poorly from 3pt range, connecting on only 25% of their 3s, and shot a horrendous 58% from the free throw line on 31 attempts..final score still came close to this total, and I don't expect history to repeat itself, feel that both teams will play closer to their season averages in this one and game goes Over the total..
Atlanta Hawks -1
Hawks 15-2 at home this season, where they have dominated opponents..Don't think they will dominate the Magic tonight, but Magic come in, having lost 2 of their last 3 on the road, which might spell trouble for them considering how well ATL has played at home this year..Give me a 15-2 home team at what is virtually a pick, and I'll take it every time, win or lose..
Hornets/Jazz Under 192
Really been impressed by the Hornets defense, this season..they allow just, under 92 pts per contest on the year..Jazz have dominated this team in Utah, and the tale is best told on the defensive end..If New Orleans was not a b2b I'd throw a little extra on this one..but considering, I'll leave it as is, action play..
T-Wolves/Thunder over 202
Both teams horrible defensively, allowing over 100 ppg..Also, both teams on b2b, where defense usually becomes the 1st thing to go, especially in 2nd halves..feel this total is a bit low, so I'll take my chances with the over..
Utah Jazz -4
Jazz are an excellent home team, and have historically (the last few years or so) played very well against this NO team at home..New Orleans coming off back to back, and off an emotional win over the Lakers last night, and may come out flat against a rested Jazz team as a result...could be wrong about this one, as NO has surprised me many times be4, but I'll take my chances..
New Jersey Nets -4
Even with Harris banged up, Grizzlies just too horrible of a road team for me to pass this up..coming of b2b, traveling from MINN to NJ, I'll take my chances with the Nets, who have seen Dooling step up the action in the wake of Harris's injury...
Suns/Pacers Under 227
Strictly playing the number in this one, as I believe it is a bit high..willing to talk it through with whoever is interested...
GL! :toast:
Numberz
Hawks/Magic Over 191
For two teams who love to shoot the 3 ball, this number should not be too difficult to surpass..ORL is 2nd only to NY, in 3 pt attempts, and ATL is not too far behind..Both teams come in with hot shooters as well, Jameer Nelson 25-of-47 (53%) in his L9, and Mike Bibby 24-of-42 (57%) in his L7, from beyond the arc..an abundance of offensive weapons for both teams has me thinking Over..Really feel that 1 of these teams will hit the century mark with the other not too far behind..the effective 3 pt shooting of both teams is only a plus, both teams have players who can create of the dribble and score the ball in the paint as well..In their 1st matchup, on opening night, ORL shot 16% from beyond the arc and 36% from the field, well below their season average..ATL also shot the ball poorly from 3pt range, connecting on only 25% of their 3s, and shot a horrendous 58% from the free throw line on 31 attempts..final score still came close to this total, and I don't expect history to repeat itself, feel that both teams will play closer to their season averages in this one and game goes Over the total..
Atlanta Hawks -1
Hawks 15-2 at home this season, where they have dominated opponents..Don't think they will dominate the Magic tonight, but Magic come in, having lost 2 of their last 3 on the road, which might spell trouble for them considering how well ATL has played at home this year..Give me a 15-2 home team at what is virtually a pick, and I'll take it every time, win or lose..
Hornets/Jazz Under 192
Really been impressed by the Hornets defense, this season..they allow just, under 92 pts per contest on the year..Jazz have dominated this team in Utah, and the tale is best told on the defensive end..If New Orleans was not a b2b I'd throw a little extra on this one..but considering, I'll leave it as is, action play..
T-Wolves/Thunder over 202
Both teams horrible defensively, allowing over 100 ppg..Also, both teams on b2b, where defense usually becomes the 1st thing to go, especially in 2nd halves..feel this total is a bit low, so I'll take my chances with the over..
Utah Jazz -4
Jazz are an excellent home team, and have historically (the last few years or so) played very well against this NO team at home..New Orleans coming off back to back, and off an emotional win over the Lakers last night, and may come out flat against a rested Jazz team as a result...could be wrong about this one, as NO has surprised me many times be4, but I'll take my chances..
New Jersey Nets -4
Even with Harris banged up, Grizzlies just too horrible of a road team for me to pass this up..coming of b2b, traveling from MINN to NJ, I'll take my chances with the Nets, who have seen Dooling step up the action in the wake of Harris's injury...
Suns/Pacers Under 227
Strictly playing the number in this one, as I believe it is a bit high..willing to talk it through with whoever is interested...
GL! :toast:
Numberz
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Playing ORL total as IP and AP..playing what I think is a good middle for the AP with a 10.5 pt cushion..Cannot see magic continuing to shoot 58%..Also Hawks look flat footed on offense in the 1st half, and played with very little energy...
Action Play:
Hawks/Magic Under 96.5 (2nd half)
Action Play:
Hawks/Magic Under 96.5 (2nd half)
Didn't like what I saw the last quarter of PHO game..buying bet back on total minus the juice...also going for a middle on the side with PHO for the 2nd half..these plays will not be added into record, as I did not get the chance to post the Indiana play before tip-off..so neither IND +10 nor the 2nd half play on PHO will count..just to recap my plays for tonight...
Investment Play:
Magic Hawks Over 191
Action plays:
Hawks Magic Over 202
Atlanta Hawks -1
New Jersey Nets -4
Thunder/Grizzlies Over 202
Atlanta Hawks Under 96.5 (2nd half)
Atlanta Hawks -5 (2nd half)
Barely missed on hitting the middle for ORL total, regarding my action plays..so split there, but with the investment play cashing in, it is a winning night no matter what happens...
Investment Play:
Magic Hawks Over 191
Action plays:
Hawks Magic Over 202
Atlanta Hawks -1
New Jersey Nets -4
Thunder/Grizzlies Over 202
Atlanta Hawks Under 96.5 (2nd half)
Atlanta Hawks -5 (2nd half)
Barely missed on hitting the middle for ORL total, regarding my action plays..so split there, but with the investment play cashing in, it is a winning night no matter what happens...
