NFL Systems 2015

rolltide · Jan 3, 2016

PLAY ON non-elite dogs of >2 that lost by >2 as a TD+ fav last game. (on SEATTLE)

p:FL and p:line < -6.5 and D and line > 2 and season > 1992 and p:margin < -2 and op:margin < 31 and WP <= 70

SU:	46-46-0 (-0.85, 50.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	66-23-3 (4.85, 74.2%)	avg line: 5.7	+6: 76-16-0 (82.6%)	-6: 42-47-3 (47.2%)	+10: 79-11-2 (87.8%)	-10: 27-61-4 (30.7%)
O/U:	46-44-2 (0.18, 51.1%)	avg total: 42.2	+6: 25-65-2 (27.8%)	-6: 60-31-1 (65.9%)	+10: 20-72-0 (21.7%)	-10: 71-21-0 (77.2%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	29.5	117.7	32.6	19.4	213.7	1.5	4.6	6.7	4.1	5.3	20.8
Opp	25.9	108.4	35.1	21.2	234.4	1.9	4.2	6.2	4.2	6.8	21.6

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 03, 2016	view	Sunday	17	2015	Seahawks	Cardinals	away						6.0	47.0

RDTrains · Jan 4, 2016

Roll, I believe there is a decent trend about playing against teams coming into the playoffs on a big winning streak (KC). Would be interested in seeing whatever you can did up, thanks.

Joshroach215 · Jan 4, 2016

Roll tide anything on Super Bowl losers on the road in a wildcard game or was that trend I saw on superbowl winners on the road in wildcard game

rolltide · Jan 4, 2016

RDTrains said:
Roll, I believe there is a decent trend about playing against teams coming into the playoffs on a big winning streak (KC). Would be interested in seeing whatever you can did up, thanks.

here is all first playoff games listed by the streak the team ended regular season with. teams like KC in >8 winning streak are 0-7 ATS

when i get time this week i'll do some breakdowns...like "teams that won 4 of last 5 SU" or "teams that covered 6+ of last 8"

playoffs = 1 and p

layoffs = 0 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
4	4-0-0 (16.38, 100.0%)	-1.6	4-0-0 (10.88, 100.0%)	42.6	4-0-0 (18.00, 100.0%)	streak = -3
12	7-4-1 (2.62, 63.6%)	-0.8	4-8-0 (0.08, 33.3%)	45.0	6-6-0 (3.42, 50.0%)	streak = -2
37	12-23-2 (-4.76, 34.3%)	-2.6	23-14-0 (5.47, 62.2%)	42.6	17-20-0 (-2.16, 45.9%)	streak = -1
35	19-15-1 (1.17, 55.9%)	-1.5	12-22-1 (-0.40, 35.3%)	44.7	21-14-0 (2.66, 60.0%)	streak = 1
30	14-16-0 (0.23, 46.7%)	-1.8	11-18-1 (1.00, 37.9%)	44.9	15-15-0 (2.07, 50.0%)	streak = 2
14	6-7-1 (0.46, 46.2%)	0.5	8-6-0 (5.82, 57.1%)	42.0	8-6-0 (-0.07, 57.1%)	streak = 3
15	7-8-0 (0.40, 46.7%)	-1.1	7-8-0 (1.07, 46.7%)	43.1	8-7-0 (1.47, 53.3%)	streak = 4
5	2-3-0 (-0.50, 40.0%)	-1.5	1-4-0 (-0.20, 20.0%)	42.0	4-1-0 (1.00, 80.0%)	streak = 5
5	3-0-2 (3.90, 100.0%)	-7.9	2-3-0 (-2.60, 40.0%)	43.6	5-0-0 (11.80, 100.0%)	streak = 6
1	0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%)	3.0	0-1-0 (-8.00, 0.0%)	46.0	0-1-0 (-10.00, 0.0%)	streak = 7
3	2-1-0 (3.83, 66.7%)	-11.2	3-0-0 (7.67, 100.0%)	51.3	2-1-0 (15.00, 66.7%)	streak = 8
1	0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%)	-1.0	0-1-0 (-10.00, 0.0%)	50.0	0-1-0 (-6.00, 0.0%)	streak = 9
1	0-1-0 (-7.50, 0.0%)	-4.5	0-1-0 (-1.50, 0.0%)	46.5	0-1-0 (-3.00, 0.0%)	streak = 10
2	0-2-0 (-11.50, 0.0%)	-8.5	1-1-0 (8.75, 50.0%)	43.2	0-2-0 (-3.00, 0.0%)	streak = 11
1	0-1-0 (-3.00, 0.0%)	-6.0	0-1-0 (-6.00, 0.0%)	37.0	1-0-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	streak = 12
1	0-1-0 (-5.50, 0.0%)	-8.5	1-0-0 (2.00, 100.0%)	35.0	1-0-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	streak = 14
1	0-1-0 (-1.00, 0.0%)	-12.0	1-0-0 (1.00, 100.0%)	50.0	1-0-0 (11.00, 100.0%)	streak = 16

Showing 1 to 17 of 17 entries

rolltide · Jan 4, 2016

Joshroach215 said:
Roll tide anything on Super Bowl losers on the road in a wildcard game or was that trend I saw on superbowl winners on the road in wildcard game

unable to query the loser of ly super bowl but here is the winner of the super bowl in first playoff game of the following year.

tpA(W@playoffs=1) = 1 and playoffs = 1 and p

layoffs = 0 and season > 2005

SU:	1-4-0 (-4.80, 20.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	1-4-0 (-13.20, 20.0%)	avg line: -8.4	+6: 1-4-0 (20.0%)	-6: 0-5-0 (0.0%)	+10: 1-4-0 (20.0%)	-10: 0-5-0 (0.0%)
O/U:	4-1-0 (8.30, 80.0%)	avg total: 45.3	+6: 2-3-0 (40.0%)	-6: 5-0-0 (100.0%)	+10: 1-4-0 (20.0%)	-10: 5-0-0 (100.0%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	24.6	101.2	41.0	25.6	291.4	2.2	6.0	6.4	2.6	9.4	24.4
Opp	27.8	107.0	33.4	21.0	269.8	1.6	4.8	9.4	5.4	9.6	29.2

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr
Jan 10, 2015	view	Saturday	19	2014	Seahawks	Panthers	home	7-0	7-10	0-0	17-7	31-17	-12.5	40.5	14	1.5	7.5	4.5	3.0	W	W	O
Jan 15, 2012		Sunday	19	2011	Packers	Giants	home	3-10	7-10	3-0	7-17	20-37	-7.5	53.0	-17	-24.5	4.0	-10.2	14.2	L	L	O
Jan 08, 2011		Saturday	18	2010	Saints	Seahawks	away	10-7	10-17	0-10	16-7	36-41	-10.0	45.5	-5	-15.0	31.5	8.2	23.2	L	L	O
Jan 11, 2009		Sunday	19	2008	Giants	Eagles	home	3-7	5-3	3-3	0-10	11-23	-4.0	39.0	-12	-16.0	-5.0	-10.5	5.5	L	L	U
Jan 13, 2008		Sunday	19	2007	Colts	Chargers	home	7-0	3-7	7-14	7-7	24-28	-8.0	48.5	-4	-12.0	3.5	-4.2	7.8	L	L	O

Showing 1 to 5 of 5 entries

Joshroach215 · Jan 5, 2016

Thanks rolltide. I'm interested in another if you have time teams record in their 3rd straight divisional road game like the steelers are this week

RDTrains · Jan 6, 2016

Joshroach215 said:
Thanks rolltide. I'm interested in another if you have time teams record in their 3rd straight divisional road game like the steelers are this week

Why limit it just to divisional? Just a quiry on teams playing a third straight road game as their frist playoff game should give some interesting results hopefully.

rolltide · Jan 6, 2016

3rd consecutive road game ... (playoff game =1 , regular season = 0)

p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
6	3-3-0 (-0.50, 50.0%)	3.3	2-3-1 (-5.17, 40.0%)	43.3	3-3-0 (-3.83, 50.0%)	playoffs = 1
140	62-72-6 (-0.22, 46.3%)	-2.5	70-69-1 (1.95, 50.4%)	40.9	78-61-1 (2.24, 56.1%)	playoffs = 0

Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

3rd straight divisional game
p

IV and pp

IV and ppp

IV and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
10	6-4-0 (-0.80, 60.0%)	-0.5	5-5-0 (0.40, 50.0%)	42.5	5-5-0 (-0.30, 50.0%)	playoffs = 1
551	273-264-14 (-0.10, 50.8%)	0.2	300-242-9 (2.75, 55.4%)	40.2	275-276-0 (-0.35, 49.9%)	playoffs = 0

Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

3rd straight road divisional game:
p

IV and pp

IV and ppp

IV and A and p:A and pp:A and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
1	1-0-0 (2.50, 100.0%)	6.5	0-1-0 (-4.50, 0.0%)	48.5	0-1-0 (-4.00, 0.0%)	playoffs = 1
7	4-3-0 (3.00, 57.1%)	1.6	3-4-0 (-1.79, 42.9%)	40.1	4-3-0 (1.43, 57.1%)	playoffs = 0

Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

rolltide · Jan 6, 2016

OPPOSE any playoff team that won 4 or less games last year (on GB)

playoffs > 0 and PRSW < 5

SU:	2-14-0 (-12.19, 12.5%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	1-14-1 (-9.44, 6.7%)	avg line: 2.8	+6: 5-10-1 (33.3%)	-6: 1-15-0 (6.2%)	+10: 8-8-0 (50.0%)	-10: 1-15-0 (6.2%)
O/U:	9-7-0 (3.69, 56.2%)	avg total: 43.2	+6: 4-12-0 (25.0%)	-6: 13-2-1 (86.7%)	+10: 3-12-1 (20.0%)	-10: 14-2-0 (87.5%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	25.8	112.1	36.7	21.3	220.1	2.3	3.1	7.0	2.9	3.9	17.4
Opp	31.9	142.1	29.9	18.7	238.9	1.0	4.0	9.8	8.7	6.9	29.6

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 10, 2016		Sunday	18	2015	Redskins	Packers	home						1.0	45.0

OPPOSE favs or small dogs late in season at home who won 4 or less games last year (on GB) - 7-0 ATS in playoff games

game number >=10 and PRSW < 5 and H and WP >= 37 and line < 4 and season >= 2000

SU:	64-70-0 (-0.06, 47.8%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	42-87-5 (-3.26, 32.6%)	avg line: -3.2	+6: 76-56-2 (57.6%)	-6: 25-104-5 (19.4%)	+10: 97-34-3 (74.0%)	-10: 18-114-2 (13.6%)
O/U:	54-76-4 (-0.97, 41.5%)	avg total: 43.2	+6: 33-100-1 (24.8%)	-6: 84-47-3 (64.1%)	+10: 25-108-1 (18.8%)	-10: 104-29-1 (78.2%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	27.8	121.4	33.7	20.1	214.4	1.7	4.7	6.2	4.2	5.9	21.1
Opp	27.9	121.6	32.3	19.5	212.6	1.4	3.3	6.5	4.7	6.6	21.1

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 10, 2016		Sunday	18	2015	Redskins	Packers	home						1.0	45.0

OVER away fav after game as a fav where they had huge time of possession and a rushing TD (on KC) 4-0 o/u in playoff games

AF and p:F and p:TOP - tA(p:TOP) > 125.3 and p:RTD > 0 and date >= 20101225

SU:	45-24-0 (4.71, 65.2%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	32-37-0 (-0.01, 46.4%)	avg line: -4.7	+6: 45-21-3 (68.2%)	-6: 19-49-1 (27.9%)	+10: 54-15-0 (78.3%)	-10: 17-51-1 (25.0%)
O/U:	50-19-0 (7.12, 72.5%)	avg total: 45.6	+6: 37-32-0 (53.6%)	-6: 60-9-0 (87.0%)	+10: 27-42-0 (39.1%)	-10: 61-8-0 (88.4%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	27.6	118.9	36.0	23.3	267.9	1.2	6.0	8.7	6.1	7.8	28.7
Opp	25.8	109.3	34.3	21.1	246.1	1.6	4.8	6.9	4.7	7.6	24.0

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 09, 2016		Saturday	18	2015	Chiefs	Texans	away						-3.0	40.0

UNDER after away blowout win that went under and defense allowing <26 ppg. (SEA under) playoffs 1-2 o/u

p:AUW and p:margin > 13 and season > 2010 and otA(points) < 26 and o:rest < 9

SU:	29-24-0 (3.58, 54.7%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	24-28-1 (-1.67, 46.2%)	avg line: -5.3	+6: 34-19-0 (64.2%)	-6: 11-41-1 (21.2%)	+10: 40-12-1 (76.9%)	-10: 8-45-0 (15.1%)
O/U:	14-39-0 (-5.32, 26.4%)	avg total: 45.4	+6: 6-47-0 (11.3%)	-6: 25-27-1 (48.1%)	+10: 5-47-1 (9.6%)	-10: 32-20-1 (61.5%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	26.4	105.9	36.5	22.8	242.5	1.5	5.1	6.5	4.6	5.6	21.8
Opp	26.6	101.8	33.3	20.4	206.2	1.5	3.5	5.2	4.3	5.1	18.2

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 10, 2016		Sunday	18	2015	Seahawks	Vikings	away						-5.0	40.0

UNDER dog off a 400+ yardage game as a fav or small dog away from home in a game they won SU (WAS/GB under) - all 5 playoff games that fit went under

D and p:TY >= 400 and p:ADW and p:line > 3

SU:	24-46-0 (-5.04, 34.3%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	35-32-3 (-0.04, 52.2%)	avg line: 5.0	+6: 47-21-2 (69.1%)	-6: 19-50-1 (27.5%)	+10: 51-18-1 (73.9%)	-10: 16-52-2 (23.5%)
O/U:	19-50-1 (-4.73, 27.5%)	avg total: 43.5	+6: 16-53-1 (23.2%)	-6: 33-37-0 (47.1%)	+10: 10-58-2 (14.7%)	-10: 45-24-1 (65.2%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	26.1	103.5	33.3	19.3	203.8	1.9	3.2	5.3	3.5	4.8	16.9
Opp	29.4	121.4	33.5	20.4	221.0	1.5	4.1	7.0	4.8	5.9	21.9

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 10, 2016		Sunday	18	2015	Redskins	Packers	home						1.0	45.0

PLAY ON any playoff dog or fav of <TD with better yards per pass attempt differential (on SEA, on CIN) -obviously with cincy need to note this is not the same QB that put those great YPPA offensive stats on board. Divisional game, like Cincy, is 11-0 ATS however

playoffs > 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) >= 0 and line > -7 and PRSW > 4 and streak < 8

SU:	66-33-0 (4.38, 66.7%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	73-23-3 (4.69, 76.0%)	avg line: 0.3	+6: 82-16-1 (83.7%)	-6: 46-52-1 (46.9%)	+10: 85-14-0 (85.9%)	-10: 37-61-1 (37.8%)
O/U:	44-53-2 (1.29, 45.4%)	avg total: 43.4	+6: 26-73-0 (26.3%)	-6: 67-30-2 (69.1%)	+10: 22-76-1 (22.4%)	-10: 84-13-2 (86.6%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	29.4	119.3	32.8	20.0	230.2	1.4	4.3	7.9	5.6	6.5	24.5
Opp	25.1	104.9	34.7	20.8	214.2	2.1	4.6	5.6	4.1	5.6	20.2

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 10, 2016		Sunday	18	2015	Seahawks	Vikings	away						-5.0	40.0
Jan 09, 2016		Saturday	18	2015	Bengals	Steelers	home						2.5	46.5

PLAY ON non-divisional playoff teams looking for same season revenge (on MINN)

playoffs > 0 and P:season = season and P:L and P:margin < -2 and P:week > 3 and NDIV and (P:H and A) = False

SU:	21-18-0 (2.44, 53.8%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	29-9-1 (5.04, 76.3%)	avg line: 2.6	+6: 31-8-0 (79.5%)	-6: 15-24-0 (38.5%)	+10: 34-5-0 (87.2%)	-10: 13-26-0 (33.3%)
O/U:	24-15-0 (5.87, 61.5%)	avg total: 44.0	+6: 16-23-0 (41.0%)	-6: 29-8-2 (78.4%)	+10: 14-24-1 (36.8%)	-10: 33-5-1 (86.8%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	28.0	111.4	34.5	21.5	250.2	1.5	5.8	9.4	5.0	5.6	26.2
Opp	26.1	105.1	35.8	21.7	243.9	1.6	4.4	5.9	5.2	7.8	23.7

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 10, 2016		Sunday	18	2015	Vikings	Seahawks	home						5.0	40.0

rolltide · Jan 7, 2016

contrarian system here ... 26-5-1 ATS in super bowl or championship round but has done ok in wildcard and div playoff round as well.

PLAY ON playoff team that won less games in second half of season (on CIN, on HOU, on MIN, on GB)

tS(W, N=8) < oS(W, N=8) and playoffs = 1 and tS(ats margin, N=8) > -43 and tA(points) > 20.66

SU:	56-39-0 (1.86, 58.9%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	65-28-2 (4.82, 69.9%)	avg line: 3.0	+6: 77-16-2 (82.8%)	-6: 43-52-0 (45.3%)	+10: 81-14-0 (85.3%)	-10: 31-62-2 (33.3%)
O/U:	46-48-1 (2.88, 48.9%)	avg total: 43.8	+6: 31-64-0 (32.6%)	-6: 64-27-4 (70.3%)	+10: 25-68-2 (26.9%)	-10: 80-12-3 (87.0%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	27.5	111.0	34.6	20.9	239.2	1.5	4.1	7.6	5.2	7.1	24.3
Opp	27.1	107.3	35.2	21.4	236.8	2.0	4.2	6.7	4.6	6.8	22.4

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total
Jan 10, 2016	Sunday	18	2015	Vikings	Seahawks	home	5.0	39.5
Jan 10, 2016	Sunday	18	2015	Packers	Redskins	away	-1.0	45.5
Jan 09, 2016	Saturday	18	2015	Texans	Chiefs	home	3.0	40.0
Jan 09, 2016	Saturday	18	2015	Bengals	Steelers	home	3.0	45.5

rolltide · Jan 7, 2016

tightener of above:

tS(W, N=8) + 1 < oS(W, N=8) and playoffs = 1 and tS(ats margin, N=8) > -43 and tA(points) > 20.66 and PRSW > 5

SU:	26-14-0 (2.38, 65.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	32-7-1 (7.08, 82.1%)	avg line: 4.7	+6: 37-2-1 (94.9%)	-6: 21-19-0 (52.5%)	+10: 39-1-0 (97.5%)	-10: 13-27-0 (32.5%)
O/U:	22-17-1 (3.34, 56.4%)	avg total: 45.3	+6: 15-25-0 (37.5%)	-6: 27-11-2 (71.1%)	+10: 12-27-1 (30.8%)	-10: 31-6-3 (83.8%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	27.6	114.0	34.0	21.4	253.8	1.2	3.7	7.7	5.8	7.8	25.5
Opp	27.0	107.1	38.1	23.8	264.6	1.9	3.4	8.1	4.0	7.3	23.1

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total
Jan 10, 2016	Sunday	18	2015	Packers	Redskins	away	-1.0	45.5
Jan 09, 2016	Saturday	18	2015	Texans	Chiefs	home	3.0	40.0
Jan 09, 2016	Saturday	18	2015	Bengals	Steelers	home	3.0	45.5

scorpion896 · Jan 7, 2016

RT i'm curious, what are you playing this weekend?

rolltide · Jan 8, 2016

scorpion896 said:
RT i'm curious, what are you playing this weekend?

havent taken anything yet. probably only GB +1 will be a bet. definitely interested in Heath Miller catch prop, when available (posted the #'s in someone elses thread, see below)

rolltide said:
if you're into player props look out for heath miller over catches or yards. in two games vs Cincy this year ben has targeted him 23x (Antonio Brown 2nd with 21 targets) and 20 of those resulted in a catch. nothing new for Cincy as they have the most TE pass attempts against/game in the league at 9.7/game (league avg is 7.6) and allow 2nd most yards/game vs TE at 65 ypg (league avg 55)

with no running game the Steelers will use the short passing game a lot and Miller will be the #2 target, or possibly even #1. Brown's two least targeted games with Ben at QB were both vs Cincy (11 targets first meeting, 10 in second meeting) so Cincy have covered him well

scorpion896 · Jan 8, 2016

Thanks RT as always, best of luck this weekend !

rolltide · Jan 12, 2016

PLAY ON playoff away teams with 10+ wins vs home team on 13+ days rest (on SEA, on PIT). 11-1 ATS last 12

A and season > 2002 and wins >= 10 and o:rest > 12

SU:	21-15-0 (1.06, 58.3%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	28-8-0 (5.57, 77.8%)	avg line: 4.5	+6: 32-4-0 (88.9%)	-6: 17-19-0 (47.2%)	+10: 33-3-0 (91.7%)	-10: 14-22-0 (38.9%)
O/U:	15-21-0 (-0.78, 41.7%)	avg total: 45.9	+6: 8-28-0 (22.2%)	-6: 23-12-1 (65.7%)	+10: 8-28-0 (22.2%)	-10: 29-6-1 (82.9%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	27.2	106.2	33.9	21.5	241.7	1.4	4.1	6.7	4.6	7.7	23.1
Opp	25.5	112.5	36.5	22.4	244.0	1.6	4.0	6.9	4.8	6.2	22.1

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 17, 2016		Sunday	19	2015	Seahawks	Panthers	away						3.0	44.0
Jan 17, 2016		Sunday	19	2015	Steelers	Broncos	away						6.5	41.0

PLAY ON playoff team that won 2+ less games in second half of season (on NE, on GB)

tS(W, N=8) + 1 < oS(W, N=8) and playoffs = 1 and tS(ats margin, N=8) > -43 and tA(points) > 20.66 and PRSW > 5

SU:	27-16-0 (1.86, 62.8%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	34-8-1 (6.38, 81.0%)	avg line: 4.5	+6: 39-3-1 (92.9%)	-6: 22-21-0 (51.2%)	+10: 41-2-0 (95.3%)	-10: 14-29-0 (32.6%)
O/U:	23-19-1 (2.76, 54.8%)	avg total: 45.2	+6: 15-27-1 (35.7%)	-6: 28-13-2 (68.3%)	+10: 12-30-1 (28.6%)	-10: 33-7-3 (82.5%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	27.6	114.1	34.2	21.3	247.8	1.4	3.4	7.5	5.6	7.9	24.9
Opp	27.1	108.7	37.9	23.7	261.2	1.9	3.4	8.0	4.3	7.1	23.1

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 16, 2016		Saturday	19	2015	Patriots	Chiefs	home						-5.0	42.5
Jan 16, 2016		Saturday	19	2015	Packers	Cardinals	away						7.0	50.0

PLAY ON non-divisional playoff teams looking for same season revenge (on GB, on DEN)

playoffs > 0 and P:season = season and P:L and P:margin < -2 and P:week > 3 and NDIV and (P:H and A) = False

SU:	21-19-0 (2.35, 52.5%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	30-9-1 (5.00, 76.9%)	avg line: 2.6	+6: 32-8-0 (80.0%)	-6: 15-25-0 (37.5%)	+10: 35-5-0 (87.5%)	-10: 13-27-0 (32.5%)
O/U:	24-16-0 (5.20, 60.0%)	avg total: 43.9	+6: 16-24-0 (40.0%)	-6: 29-9-2 (76.3%)	+10: 14-25-1 (35.9%)	-10: 33-6-1 (84.6%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	28.0	110.0	34.3	21.4	247.0	1.5	5.7	9.2	5.0	5.5	25.7
Opp	26.1	104.9	35.5	21.4	241.0	1.6	4.3	5.8	5.1	7.9	23.4

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 17, 2016		Sunday	19	2015	Broncos	Steelers	home						-6.5	41.0
Jan 16, 2016		Saturday	19	2015	Packers	Cardinals	away						7.0	50.0

PLAY ON any playoff dog or fav of <TD with better yards per pass attempt differential (on SEA, on NE, and on DEN only at 6.5 or less)

playoffs > 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) >= 0 and line > -7 and PRSW > 4 and streak < 8

SU:	67-34-0 (4.29, 66.3%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	74-24-3 (4.56, 75.5%)	avg line: 0.3	+6: 84-16-1 (84.0%)	-6: 46-54-1 (46.0%)	+10: 87-14-0 (86.1%)	-10: 37-63-1 (37.0%)
O/U:	44-55-2 (0.94, 44.4%)	avg total: 43.4	+6: 26-75-0 (25.7%)	-6: 67-32-2 (67.7%)	+10: 22-78-1 (22.0%)	-10: 84-15-2 (84.8%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	29.3	118.8	32.9	19.9	228.7	1.4	4.2	7.8	5.5	6.6	24.3
Opp	25.1	105.0	34.6	20.8	213.2	2.1	4.6	5.6	4.2	5.5	20.0

Date	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Line	Total
Jan 17, 2016	Sunday	19	2015	Seahawks	Panthers	away	3.0	44.0
Jan 17, 2016	Sunday	19	2015	Broncos	Steelers	home	-6.5	41.0
Jan 16, 2016	Saturday	19	2015	Patriots	Chiefs	home	-5.0	42.5

PLAY ON any streaking playoff away dog vs home fav that won at least 7 of their last 8 home games. (on SEA)

oS(W@H, N=8) > 6 and AD and week > 18 and streak > 1 and o:streak > -2

SU:	24-23-0 (0.32, 51.1%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	34-13-0 (6.37, 72.3%)	avg line: 6.1	+6: 41-5-1 (89.1%)	-6: 22-24-1 (47.8%)	+10: 42-5-0 (89.4%)	-10: 19-27-1 (41.3%)
O/U:	22-24-1 (0.82, 47.8%)	avg total: 44.7	+6: 14-33-0 (29.8%)	-6: 31-14-2 (68.9%)	+10: 10-37-0 (21.3%)	-10: 37-8-2 (82.2%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	27.2	99.4	35.0	21.0	237.9	1.4	4.1	7.1	4.6	6.9	22.9
Opp	26.9	111.0	36.2	21.8	237.0	2.0	4.4	6.3	5.0	6.9	22.6

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 17, 2016		Sunday	19	2015	Seahawks	Panthers	away						3.0	44.0

rolltide · Jan 12, 2016

PLAY ON any TD+ away dog off an away win as a single digit dog. (on GB) 8-1 ATS in playoffs

A and line > 6.5 and p:ADW and NB and p:line <= 7 and pp:H

SU:	12-45-0 (-7.26, 21.1%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	41-15-1 (2.18, 73.2%)	avg line: 9.4	+6: 45-11-1 (80.4%)	-6: 16-40-1 (28.6%)	+10: 49-8-0 (86.0%)	-10: 12-44-1 (21.4%)
O/U:	28-29-0 (-1.03, 49.1%)	avg total: 43.4	+6: 17-40-0 (29.8%)	-6: 33-22-2 (60.0%)	+10: 11-45-1 (19.6%)	-10: 43-14-0 (75.4%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	25.4	102.4	32.6	18.8	201.9	1.8	2.9	5.4	3.3	5.8	17.6
Opp	29.8	131.1	32.1	20.7	225.4	1.3	5.8	7.8	5.2	5.7	24.8

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 16, 2016		Saturday	19	2015	Packers	Cardinals	away						7.0	50.0

PLAY ON team after playing a great 4th quarter although gaining few yards (on SEA)

14 > p

4 - po

oints >= 0 and p:TY <= 246 and p

assing yards - po

assing yards > -130 and p:rushing yards >= 70 and season >= 1995

SU:	43-17-0 (6.08, 71.7%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	41-18-1 (4.32, 69.5%)	avg line: -1.8	+6: 50-10-0 (83.3%)	-6: 31-29-0 (51.7%)	+10: 51-9-0 (85.0%)	-10: 18-40-2 (31.0%)
O/U:	21-37-2 (-3.33, 36.2%)	avg total: 38.6	+6: 12-47-1 (20.3%)	-6: 32-28-0 (53.3%)	+10: 8-52-0 (13.3%)	-10: 41-18-1 (69.5%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	29.8	111.3	30.9	18.4	192.5	1.4	4.2	7.5	4.1	4.7	20.7
Opp	26.4	100.9	32.2	17.9	193.9	2.0	1.3	5.5	3.9	3.6	14.6

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 17, 2016		Sunday	19	2015	Seahawks	Panthers	away						3.0	44.0

PLAY ON winning teams at home after b2b away losses (on NE)

WP > 53.5 and H and p:AL and pp:AL and tA(margin) <= 10 and -11 < line < 3

SU:	47-12-0 (10.02, 79.7%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	40-18-1 (4.40, 69.0%)	avg line: -5.6	+6: 47-12-0 (79.7%)	-6: 23-34-2 (40.4%)	+10: 49-8-2 (86.0%)	-10: 18-41-0 (30.5%)
O/U:	27-31-1 (-1.12, 46.6%)	avg total: 41.8	+6: 21-38-0 (35.6%)	-6: 33-26-0 (55.9%)	+10: 12-47-0 (20.3%)	-10: 41-17-1 (70.7%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	30.8	127.5	32.4	19.9	222.8	1.3	5.5	7.6	5.0	7.3	25.3
Opp	23.7	91.7	34.5	19.5	198.1	1.9	3.8	4.3	3.2	4.0	15.3

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 16, 2016		Saturday	19	2015	Patriots	Chiefs	home						-5.0	42.5

OPPOSE teams that abandoned the run last game while losing as a home fav (on GB)

line > -10 and p:HFL and tA(p:rushes) - p:rushes > 8 and date > 20101225

SU:	24-48-0 (-3.75, 33.3%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	24-47-1 (-2.79, 33.8%)	avg line: 1.0	+6: 38-32-2 (54.3%)	-6: 16-56-0 (22.2%)	+10: 48-22-2 (68.6%)	-10: 14-58-0 (19.4%)
O/U:	41-30-1 (2.52, 57.7%)	avg total: 45.0	+6: 26-45-1 (36.6%)	-6: 58-14-0 (80.6%)	+10: 22-50-0 (30.6%)	-10: 61-11-0 (84.7%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	26.1	117.3	34.4	20.9	224.3	1.8	3.9	7.4	4.5	6.0	21.9
Opp	28.9	120.4	33.5	20.8	236.4	1.5	4.8	7.2	5.9	7.7	25.6

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 16, 2016		Saturday	19	2015	Cardinals	Packers	home						-7.0	50.0

rolltide · Jan 12, 2016

a couple team specific ones:

Steelers are 7-23 ATS L10 years playing outside of Eastern time zone:

team = Steelers and season > 2005 and time zone != E

SU:	10-20-0 (-2.10, 33.3%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	7-23-0 (-4.23, 23.3%)	avg line: -2.1	+6: 14-15-1 (48.3%)	-6: 6-23-1 (20.7%)	+10: 23-6-1 (79.3%)	-10: 2-28-0 (6.7%)
O/U:	16-14-0 (2.53, 53.3%)	avg total: 42.0	+6: 12-18-0 (40.0%)	-6: 21-9-0 (70.0%)	+10: 10-20-0 (33.3%)	-10: 25-5-0 (83.3%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	24.7	102.8	35.7	22.9	251.5	2.0	3.9	5.7	4.8	6.8	21.2
Opp	23.9	91.7	32.7	20.8	231.5	1.4	4.2	6.4	4.6	7.8	23.3

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 17, 2016		Sunday	19	2015	Steelers	Broncos	away						6.5	41.0

Patriots are 21-2 ATS playing off a loss against a solid winning team:

team = Patriots and p:L and season > 2002 and o:WP > 57

SU:	22-1-0 (15.04, 95.7%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	21-2-0 (13.26, 91.3%)	avg line: -1.8	+6: 22-1-0 (95.7%)	-6: 15-7-1 (68.2%)	+10: 22-1-0 (95.7%)	-10: 13-10-0 (56.5%)
O/U:	14-8-1 (5.63, 63.6%)	avg total: 46.4	+6: 10-12-1 (45.5%)	-6: 16-7-0 (69.6%)	+10: 9-14-0 (39.1%)	-10: 18-4-1 (81.8%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	32.3	141.6	35.9	23.0	271.1	1.0	5.8	6.9	9.0	11.6	33.5
Opp	23.2	97.8	36.2	20.6	240.5	2.4	3.5	5.1	3.1	6.8	18.5

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 16, 2016		Saturday	19	2015	Patriots	Chiefs	home						-5.0	42.5

MackDonald · Jan 12, 2016

Interesting "time-zone" stat Tide: It would be interesting to know the break-down (ATS) at Mile High Stadium (5,000 ft. plus) above sea-level, two time-zones West of Pittsburg, (Mountain Time) and the West Coast teams, three time zones West of Pittsburg (Pacific Time) all at or near Sea Level (San Diego, L.A, S.F, Seattle).

I've always been a believer in considering the logistics of team-travel when handicapping College & Pro Football games although I will admit that the advent of the Jet-Age has taken a lot of fatigue out of cross-country travel now days.....Train travel for inter-sectional games was tough-going back in the late 40's and early 50s.......Now its a 4 and 1/2 hour trip on a Charter Flight.

TheComputerGroup · Jan 13, 2016

Rolltide,do you have anything about teams getting a shutout in the playoffs for their following game?

Like Chiefs winning 30-0? Also, can you make it a 2 part........overall teams shutting out teams in playoffs, & also scoring 30 or more while shutting out opponent........TIA!

tulah · Jan 13, 2016

I love systems and angles
but some of these like the PLAY ON a team that had a great 4th qtr is really odd.

What's next?....Play on a team that had a great 2nd qtr while wearing white pants on the road in 60 degree + weather. Lol

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