NFL Systems 2015

[powerz]

I love systems and angles
but some of these like the PLAY ON a team that had a great 4th qtr is really odd.

What's next?....Play on a team that had a great 2nd qtr while wearing white pants on the road in 60 degree + weather. Lol

There use to be an odd NBA system that had a play on team in B2B in th e1st Q of the next game if they outscored the previous opp by X in the 4th Q but still lost the game -

I was also taught to be aware of MLB dogs who won the 7-8-9 inning s of the previous game in the next game in the series.

Looking forward to that shut trend - good question TCG

 

[rolltide]

Interesting "time-zone" stat Tide: It would be interesting to know the break-down (ATS) at Mile High Stadium (5,000 ft. plus) above sea-level, two time-zones West of Pittsburg, (Mountain Time) and the West Coast teams, three time zones West of Pittsburg (Pacific Time) all at or near Sea Level (San Diego, L.A, S.F, Seattle).

I've always been a believer in considering the logistics of team-travel when handicapping College & Pro Football games although I will admit that the advent of the Jet-Age has taken a lot of fatigue out of cross-country travel now days.....Train travel for inter-sectional games was tough-going back in the late 40's and early 50s.......Now its a 4 and 1/2 hour trip on a Charter Flight.

yeah i have several systems for time zone and most actually center around playing EST early slot after playing PST in late Sunday or Monday slot. In this case Tomlin's Steelers have been overall complete crap leaving EST. as far as breaking down the steelers 7-23 ATS it is very easy....

team = Steelers and season > 2005 and time zone != E and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
1	0-1-0 (-5.50, 0.0%)	-2.5	0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%)	38.0	0-1-0 (-3.00, 0.0%)	o:Bears
1	0-1-0 (-8.00, 0.0%)	2.0	0-1-0 (-15.00, 0.0%)	45.0	0-1-0 (-10.00, 0.0%)	o:Saints
1	0-1-0 (-3.50, 0.0%)	3.5	0-1-0 (-18.50, 0.0%)	45.5	0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%)	o:Texans
1	0-1-0 (-14.50, 0.0%)	2.5	0-1-0 (-14.50, 0.0%)	37.5	0-1-0 (-17.00, 0.0%)	o:Fortyniners
1	0-1-0 (-4.00, 0.0%)	-1.0	1-0-0 (6.50, 100.0%)	44.5	0-1-0 (-3.00, 0.0%)	o:Cowboys
1	0-1-0 (-9.50, 0.0%)	-2.5	1-0-0 (19.00, 100.0%)	42.0	0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%)	o:Vikings
1	0-1-0 (-6.00, 0.0%)	3.0	1-0-0 (23.50, 100.0%)	45.5	0-1-0 (-9.00, 0.0%)	o:Seahawks
3	0-3-0 (-9.50, 0.0%)	-5.2	1-2-0 (4.17, 33.3%)	41.5	0-3-0 (-4.33, 0.0%)	o:Raiders
3	0-3-0 (-8.83, 0.0%)	-5.8	1-2-0 (-4.67, 33.3%)	41.0	1-2-0 (-3.00, 33.3%)	o:Chiefs
4	1-3-0 (-3.88, 25.0%)	-3.1	3-1-0 (10.00, 75.0%)	39.8	1-3-0 (-0.75, 25.0%)	o:Broncos
4	1-3-0 (-4.50, 25.0%)	-2.2	3-1-0 (3.38, 75.0%)	40.4	2-2-0 (-2.25, 50.0%)	o:Titans
3	1-2-0 (-2.50, 33.3%)	-5.5	2-1-0 (1.50, 66.7%)	44.2	2-1-0 (3.00, 66.7%)	o:Cardinals
2	1-1-0 (0.50, 50.0%)	3.5	0-2-0 (-1.25, 0.0%)	41.2	1-1-0 (-3.00, 50.0%)	o:Chargers
2	1-1-0 (1.75, 50.0%)	1.2	2-0-0 (17.75, 100.0%)	44.8	1-1-0 (0.50, 50.0%)	oackers
2	2-0-0 (7.75, 100.0%)	-3.8	1-1-0 (-3.75, 50.0%)	45.2	2-0-0 (11.50, 100.0%)	o:Rams

Showing 1 to 15 of 15 entries

 

[rolltide]

I love systems and angles
but some of these like the PLAY ON a team that had a great 4th qtr is really odd.

What's next?....Play on a team that had a great 2nd qtr while wearing white pants on the road in 60 degree + weather. Lol

why would this one in particular be odd?

few yards game= team was playing like shit. 4th quarter component means they then had great 4th quarter to win the game which can catapult them into next game. makes complete sense to me but then again I am a sensible person

but appreciate your input #%()

 

[rolltide]

Rolltide,do you have anything about teams getting a shutout in the playoffs for their following game?

Like Chiefs winning 30-0? Also, can you make it a 2 part........overall teams shutting out teams in playoffs, & also scoring 30 or more while shutting out opponent........TIA!

once you start narrowing it down like this you aren't going to see many instances of occurrence but here you go:

playoff game after a playoff shutout:

playoffs = 1 and playoffs = 1 and pooints = 0
SU: 1-1-0 (-6.00, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-1-0 (-1.75, 50.0%) avg line: 4.2 +6: 1-1-0 (50.0%) -6: 1-1-0 (50.0%) +10: 1-1-0 (50.0%) -10: 1-1-0 (50.0%) O/U: 1-1-0 (5.75, 50.0%) avg total: 39.2 +6: 1-1-0 (50.0%) -6: 1-1-0 (50.0%) +10: 1-1-0 (50.0%) -10: 2-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.5 121.5 40.0 22.5 239.0 2.5 5.0 8.0 3.5 3.0 19.5 Opp 28.5 112.0 35.5 18.5 228.5 1.0 1.5 7.0 7.0 10.0 25.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 16, 2016 Saturday 19 2015 Chiefs Patriots away 5.0 42.5 Jan 15, 2006 Sunday 19 2005 Panthers Bears away 7-0 9-7 7-7 6-7 29-21 3.0 31.5 8 11.0 18.5 14.8 3.8 W W O 0 Jan 12, 2003 Sunday 19 2002 Jets Raiders away 3-3 7-7 0-7 0-13 10-30 5.5 47.0 -20 -14.5 -7.0 -10.8 3.8 L L U 0 Showing 1 to 3 of 3 entries

playoff game after 30+ point win in a playoff shutout:

playoffs = 1 and playoffs = 1 and pooints = 0 and points > 29
SU: 0-1-0 (-20.00, 0.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 0-1-0 (-14.50, 0.0%) avg line: 5.5 +6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) +10: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -10: 0-1-0 (0.0%) O/U: 0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%) avg total: 47.0 +6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) +10: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -10: 1-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 24.0 120.0 47.0 21.0 167.0 4.0 3.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 Opp 30.0 127.0 30.0 20.0 272.0 1.0 3.0 7.0 7.0 13.0 30.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 16, 2016 Saturday 19 2015 Chiefs Patriots away 5.0 42.5 Jan 12, 2003 Sunday 19 2002 Jets Raiders away 3-3 7-7 0-7 0-13 10-30 5.5 47.0 -20 -14.5 -7.0 -10.8 3.8 L L U 0 Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

 

[rolltide]

TCG, still a very small sample size but here is how a team performed after allowing single digits in a playoff game:

playoffs = 1 and playoffs = 1 and pooints < 10 and season > 2003
SU: 10-3-0 (4.23, 76.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 11-2-0 (6.46, 84.6%) avg line: 2.2 +6: 12-1-0 (92.3%) -6: 6-6-1 (50.0%) +10: 12-1-0 (92.3%) -10: 6-7-0 (46.2%) O/U: 10-3-0 (8.50, 76.9%) avg total: 43.0 +6: 6-7-0 (46.2%) -6: 11-2-0 (84.6%) +10: 5-8-0 (38.5%) -10: 11-2-0 (84.6%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.8 100.8 34.2 21.1 272.5 1.8 6.5 6.9 5.4 8.8 27.8 Opp 27.8 103.9 34.5 20.3 238.1 2.2 4.2 6.8 6.4 5.9 23.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 17, 2016 Sunday 19 2015 Seahawks Panthers away 3.0 44.0 Jan 16, 2016 Saturday 19 2015 Chiefs Patriots away 5.0 42.5

here is how they fared after allowing 1 or less TD:

playoffs = 1 and playoffs = 1 and pos <= 1 and season > 2002 SU: 19-19-0 (-0.58, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 25-13-0 (2.68, 65.8%) avg line: 3.3 +6: 32-6-0 (84.2%) -6: 14-23-1 (37.8%) +10: 32-6-0 (84.2%) -10: 12-26-0 (31.6%) O/U: 23-14-1 (4.95, 62.2%) avg total: 44.5 +6: 15-23-0 (39.5%) -6: 29-9-0 (76.3%) +10: 11-26-1 (29.7%) -10: 31-6-1 (83.8%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.4 106.0 34.7 20.9 249.0 1.8 4.3 7.8 4.8 7.3 24.4 Opp 28.2 111.8 35.4 21.3 245.0 1.8 4.1 7.5 5.9 7.4 25.0 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 17, 2016 Sunday 19 2015 Seahawks Panthers away 3.0 44.0 Jan 16, 2016 Saturday 19 2015 Chiefs Patriots away 5.0 42.5

obviously very little, historically, points to a Panthers cover and teams, like Carolina, that lost in divisional round last year are 6-15 ATS in divisional round following year. But, beware the schedule for Seattle. This is 4th game in a row in a new time zone...played STL in PST in Seattle then MST in Phoenix, CST in Minnesota, now EST in Carolina. i doubt any team has failed to repeat a time zone in 4 straight weeks. Similarly Green Bay has gone from PST (oak) to CST (home) to CST (minn) to EST (was) and now to MST (ariz)...tough on the internal clock

 

[rolltide]

here's an interesting one for you. WC or DIV round playoff home favs of 9 or less points since 2003 season...

playoffs = 1 and HF and line >= -9 and week < 20 and season > 2002
SU: 39-28-0 (3.43, 58.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 23-43-1 (-1.63, 34.8%) avg line: -5.1 +6: 41-25-1 (62.1%) -6: 18-49-0 (26.9%) +10: 46-21-0 (68.7%) -10: 17-50-0 (25.4%) O/U: 31-36-0 (0.46, 46.3%) avg total: 44.3 +6: 17-49-1 (25.8%) -6: 43-21-3 (67.2%) +10: 16-51-0 (23.9%) -10: 53-14-0 (79.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.7 125.5 34.4 21.2 228.9 1.7 4.8 7.5 5.3 6.3 24.1 Opp 26.8 108.3 32.8 19.9 217.2 1.5 4.8 6.2 4.1 5.4 20.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 17, 2016 Sunday 19 2015 Panthers Seahawks home -3.0 44.0 Jan 17, 2016 Sunday 19 2015 Broncos Steelers home -6.5 41.0 Jan 16, 2016 Saturday 19 2015 Patriots Chiefs home -5.0 42.5 Jan 16, 2016 Saturday 19 2015 Cardinals Packers home -7.0 50.0

by spread:
playoffs = 1 and HF and line >= -9 and week < 20 and season > 2002 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
2	1-1-0 (-5.50, 50.0%)	-9.0	1-1-0 (8.50, 50.0%)	43.0	1-1-0 (3.50, 50.0%)	line = -9.0
6	1-5-0 (-3.17, 16.7%)	-8.5	3-3-0 (-0.33, 50.0%)	44.7	5-1-0 (5.33, 83.3%)	line = -8.5
3	1-2-0 (-2.00, 33.3%)	-8.0	1-2-0 (-4.83, 33.3%)	42.8	1-2-0 (6.00, 33.3%)	line = -8.0
3	1-2-0 (-3.83, 33.3%)	-7.5	2-1-0 (4.83, 66.7%)	46.8	2-1-0 (3.67, 66.7%)	line = -7.5
8	3-5-0 (2.88, 37.5%)	-7.0	5-3-0 (4.12, 62.5%)	47.8	6-2-0 (9.88, 75.0%)	line = -7.0
5	2-3-0 (-6.30, 40.0%)	-6.5	1-4-0 (-3.10, 20.0%)	45.3	3-2-0 (0.20, 60.0%)	line = -6.5
1	0-1-0 (-3.00, 0.0%)	-6.0	0-1-0 (-6.00, 0.0%)	37.0	1-0-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	line = -6.0
4	1-3-0 (-1.50, 25.0%)	-5.5	2-2-0 (-0.62, 50.0%)	45.1	3-1-0 (4.00, 75.0%)	line = -5.5
0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	line = -5.0
3	1-2-0 (-2.50, 33.3%)	-4.5	0-3-0 (-5.83, 0.0%)	43.8	2-1-0 (2.00, 66.7%)	line = -4.5
6	3-3-0 (1.67, 50.0%)	-4.0	3-3-0 (-1.83, 50.0%)	41.8	3-3-0 (5.67, 50.0%)	line = -4.0
5	3-2-0 (-1.30, 60.0%)	-3.5	3-2-0 (4.90, 60.0%)	44.5	3-2-0 (2.20, 60.0%)	line = -3.5
10	5-5-0 (3.00, 50.0%)	-3.0	5-5-0 (-0.75, 50.0%)	41.8	5-5-0 (6.00, 50.0%)	line = -3.0
6	0-6-0 (-6.33, 0.0%)	-2.5	2-4-0 (-3.17, 33.3%)	43.7	1-5-0 (-3.83, 16.7%)	line = -2.5
2	1-1-0 (7.00, 50.0%)	-2.0	0-2-0 (-17.25, 0.0%)	49.2	2-0-0 (9.00, 100.0%)	line = -2.0
1	0-1-0 (-28.50, 0.0%)	-1.5	1-0-0 (24.50, 100.0%)	44.5	0-1-0 (-27.00, 0.0%)	line = -1.5
2	0-1-1 (-9.00, 0.0%)	-1.0	2-0-0 (23.75, 100.0%)	47.2	1-1-0 (-8.00, 50.0%)	line = -1.0

Showing 1 to 17 of 17 entries

 

[TheComputerGroup]

once you start narrowing it down like this you aren't going to see many instances of occurrence but here you go:

playoff game after a playoff shutout:

playoffs = 1 and playoffs = 1 and pooints = 0
SU: 1-1-0 (-6.00, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-1-0 (-1.75, 50.0%) avg line: 4.2 +6: 1-1-0 (50.0%) -6: 1-1-0 (50.0%) +10: 1-1-0 (50.0%) -10: 1-1-0 (50.0%) O/U: 1-1-0 (5.75, 50.0%) avg total: 39.2 +6: 1-1-0 (50.0%) -6: 1-1-0 (50.0%) +10: 1-1-0 (50.0%) -10: 2-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.5 121.5 40.0 22.5 239.0 2.5 5.0 8.0 3.5 3.0 19.5 Opp 28.5 112.0 35.5 18.5 228.5 1.0 1.5 7.0 7.0 10.0 25.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 16, 2016 Saturday 19 2015 Chiefs Patriots away 5.0 42.5 Jan 15, 2006 Sunday 19 2005 Panthers Bears away 7-0 9-7 7-7 6-7 29-21 3.0 31.5 8 11.0 18.5 14.8 3.8 W W O 0 Jan 12, 2003 Sunday 19 2002 Jets Raiders away 3-3 7-7 0-7 0-13 10-30 5.5 47.0 -20 -14.5 -7.0 -10.8 3.8 L L U 0 Showing 1 to 3 of 3 entries

playoff game after 30+ point win in a playoff shutout:

playoffs = 1 and playoffs = 1 and pooints = 0 and points > 29
SU: 0-1-0 (-20.00, 0.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 0-1-0 (-14.50, 0.0%) avg line: 5.5 +6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) +10: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -10: 0-1-0 (0.0%) O/U: 0-1-0 (-7.00, 0.0%) avg total: 47.0 +6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) +10: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -10: 1-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 24.0 120.0 47.0 21.0 167.0 4.0 3.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 Opp 30.0 127.0 30.0 20.0 272.0 1.0 3.0 7.0 7.0 13.0 30.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Jan 16, 2016 Saturday 19 2015 Chiefs Patriots away 5.0 42.5 Jan 12, 2003 Sunday 19 2002 Jets Raiders away 3-3 7-7 0-7 0-13 10-30 5.5 47.0 -20 -14.5 -7.0 -10.8 3.8 L L U 0 Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

the result should be teams after a shutout win are 0-5 SU & ATS ..............i found 2 of them in just the 2000 season.

 

[justanobserver]

the result should be teams after a shutout win are 0-5 SU & ATS ..............i found 2 of them in just the 2000 season.

Its strange but it appears playoff records are only 2001 and newer in sportsdatabase

 

[rolltide]

the result should be teams after a shutout win are 0-5 SU & ATS.

So Carolina didn't post a wild card shutout then win outright as a dog at chicago in divisional round? OK but if you already have your answers then leave me out of it.

Week	Date	Opponent	Results	Game site	Attendance
Final score	Team record
Wild Card	January 8	at New York Giants	W 23–0	12–5	Giants Stadium	79,378
Divisional	January 15	at Chicago Bears	W 29–21	13–5	Soldier Field	62,209