Newsletters

[BuzzKill]

You are out of here Bob! Take a hike!

Our sincere apologies to Victor King, this guy Bob Dietz waltzes in here blowing out his top pick and going 12-2 on the year. This cannot and will not be tolerated. After all you are the King. Effective immediately, Bob Dietz is banned from the Newsletter Thread!

 

[AlphaNLT]

CFB Advisor
4 star UCF -7
3 star OLE MISS +7
2 star Notre Dame -3.5
2 star CMU -2.5
2 star MARSHALL -2

Found Link to CFBA Newsletter

https://www.yumpu.com/xx/document/view/59484292/week-8-starratedpicks-2017 <tbody> </tbody>

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[sshz]

Sharp Football Analysis........1st two picks released so far. I'd like to "give-back" to this thread........

[h=2]My Available Plays[/h]

		Team	Spread	Play Type	Units	Game Date
	NFL	NYG 1H Under	20	Computer Unders	0.5	10/22/2017 01:00pm EST
	NFL	DAL Over	46.5	Computer Overs Leans	1.0	10/22/2017 04:00pm EST

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[BuzzKill]

Repost

Less is more! My one bet this week is a big bet on the Panthers/Bears OVER (the number is currently 41), the top rated pick this week in Victor King's Totals Tipsheet.

I have been suggesting a betting strategy of large percentage (30% for me) of the bankroll bets on one game a week, and that is Victor's top newsletter pick. That pick won last week with the Niners/Redskins OVER. Victor is 5-1 on these 3 star picks so far this year which is 83%.

From Mendoza Line Tracking:
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet (3-0 overall this week)
3* (5-1) (these were 13-5 last season)
2* (6-5-1)

 

[CFBall2014]

Newsletter results

Pretty decent week for the newsletters I follow other than Playbook & Gold sheet who combined for a 1-7 record..

Newsletter Name W L P % $** Power Sweep 4 1 0.80% $770.00 CFB Advisor 4 1 0.80% $670.00 Powers' Picks *4 1 0.80% $570.00 Winning Points *4 1 1 0.80% $460.00 Inside the Press Box-Phil Steele 5 2 0.71% $280.00 Pointwise 5 3 0.63% $830.00 Power Plays 9 6 0.60% $760.00 Sports Reporter 3 4 0.43% $(510.00) VSIN Concensus 4 6 0.40% $(260.00) Gold Sheet *1 3 0.25% $(690.00) Mark Lawrence Playbook *0 4 0.00% $(1,430.00) *lost top play <tbody> </tbody>

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$** pick results are weighted by star rating as most newsletter do this.. For VSIN and Inside the Press box 1 unit per play is used<attachment></attachment>

 

[exploited17]

Wasn't Lawrence actaully 2-6 since he won both his collge system plays. The only plays I would even consider of Lawrence are his systems......those went 2-1

 

[CFBall2014]

For my grading purposes all year I've only used his 3 best bets and Upset game of the week picks... those are his main picks.

 

[exploited17]

I'll go back and track those at some point

 

[BuzzKill]

Update - Thanks guys!

Newsletter Recap:
Winning Points
Sports Reporter
Gold Sheet
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Pointwise
Gaming Today
Victor King's Totals Tipsheet
VSIN Point Spread Weekly
Powers' Picks
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Red Sheet
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL
Killer Sports
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
This Year's Newsletter Records Through October 15
Last Year's Newsletter Records

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's October 18 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele's October 18 Podcast with Michael Reghi - Strong as Steele
WagerTalk Podcast: College Football Picks and Predictions with Scott Spreitzer, Marco D’Angelo, Dave Cokin and Jason Simbal

 

[Acebb]

Pretty decent week for the newsletters I follow other than Playbook & Gold sheet who combined for a 1-7 record..

Newsletter Name W L P % $** Power Sweep 4 1 0.80% $770.00 CFB Advisor 4 1 0.80% $670.00 Powers' Picks *4 1 0.80% $570.00 Winning Points *4 1 1 0.80% $460.00 Inside the Press Box-Phil Steele 5 2 0.71% $280.00 Pointwise 5 3 0.63% $830.00 Power Plays 9 6 0.60% $760.00 Sports Reporter 3 4 0.43% $(510.00) VSIN Concensus 4 6 0.40% $(260.00) Gold Sheet *1 3 0.25% $(690.00) Mark Lawrence Playbook *0 4 0.00% $(1,430.00) *lost top play <tbody> </tbody>

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$** pick results are weighted by star rating as most newsletter do this.. For VSIN and Inside the Press box 1 unit per play is used<attachment></attachment>

How are you getting 3-4 for sports reporter?

They went 0-4 on their best bets.

 

[CFBall2014]

Best Bets and Recommended are included:

BB - EMU +4 - W
BB- Oregon +7 -L
BB Navy +8 -L
BB- USC +3.5- L
R- FAU -3.5- W
R- Syracuse +15 -W
R- BYU -5.5-L

 

[Acebb]

Winning Points 3* (6-1)

Point Wise 2 & 5* (19-5) (swept yesterday)

Power Sweep 2* (11-5)

Fade Sports Reporter BB (19-11) (swept yesterday)

Fade Powers NCAA 3* (11-2)

Fade Winning Points 4* (8-0)

Fade Lawrence 5* (5-2-1)

Fade Lawrence Upset (6-1)


^ those are all I look at. You can chop the card down by doing it that way.

Note: I grade by the closing line. I don't get this idea you grade by a newsletter's line. Who bets a Saturday game on Tuesday Night?

 

[djheire]

Thanks Acebb, looks like you and I have been looking at the same stuff. I just haven't had the time to write it all out. The fades have been gold so far.
Thanks again to you and of course most thanks to Buzz Kill!

 

[exploited17]

Lawrence 11-9 college football system ATS
NFL 3-1ATS

 

[CFBall2014]

Winning Points 3* (6-1)

Point Wise 2 & 5* (19-5) (swept yesterday)

Power Sweep 2* (11-5)

Fade Sports Reporter BB (19-11) (swept yesterday)

Fade Powers NCAA 3* (11-2)

Fade Winning Points 4* (8-0)

Fade Lawrence 5* (5-2-1)

Fade Lawrence Upset (6-1)


^ those are all I look at. You can chop the card down by doing it that way.

Note: I grade by the closing line. I don't get this idea you grade by a newsletter's line. Who bets a Saturday game on Tuesday Night?

Someone can chop, spin, cherry pick, fade any of these newsletters to make them look a certain way. But as Buzz has said several times.. These newsletters have been graded on here on the line listed in newsletter as that is that the only fair/verifiable way as that is the number they were willing to take position on..

Otherwise you can have someone make a pick below or above a key number then have it move the beyond that key number and then say their pick was wrong, I imagine the main reason they make the pick is b/c there is perceived value on that number... If the spread changes That may change value and their opinion on the bet.... so the sides are graded on the line they list as the closing line that can cause a debate whether something was a push, win, or loss too as they can be different (-7 vs -7.5) offshore vs onshore vs neighborhood etc.

Usually after these newsletters get released their opinion is bet on which moves the line in the marketplace. For example a tout says they like a game at -5 because its less than a TD, other folks/general public reads that, bet it themselves which streams the line up to -8.. the team then only wins by 7.. the tout should now be considered wrong even tho he said to bet the -5? at 8 he might actually feel like the value is on the other team now.

Now I definitely agree I don't like that some use the "opening line" which about 2 people on earth actually get to bet on Sunday night before the lines move fluidly.. If you found a consitantly profitable fade strategy I am sure many folks on here would be interested in you sharing the picks you're going with/against each week. We all like profits!!!! That's why after a nice saturday haul I am avoiding the NFL .. its a money pit! GL to all

 

[FFAssassin]

Winning Points 3* (6-1)

Point Wise 2 & 5* (19-5) (swept yesterday)

Power Sweep 2* (11-5)

Fade Sports Reporter BB (19-11) (swept yesterday)

Fade Powers NCAA 3* (11-2)

Fade Winning Points 4* (8-0)

Fade Lawrence 5* (5-2-1)

Fade Lawrence Upset (6-1)


^ those are all I look at. You can chop the card down by doing it that way.

Note: I grade by the closing line. I don't get this idea you grade by a newsletter's line. Who bets a Saturday game on Tuesday Night?

Are these just college selections or both college and NFL?

 

[Acebb]

Those were just NCAA.

NFL
Power Sweep NFL 3 & 4* (8-4) Rams, Vikings (W, W)
Fade Lawrence NFL 3 & 4* (8-4) Eagles, Patriots

===
I don't pay too much attention to what these newsletters say in the NFL. Most seem to be mediocre.
I like fading the LVH contest consensus picks. Trending to a 5-0 day today....

 

[Acebb]

Someone can chop, spin, cherry pick, fade any of these newsletters to make them look a certain way. But as Buzz has said several times.. These newsletters have been graded on here on the line listed in newsletter as that is that the only fair/verifiable way as that is the number they were willing to take position on..

Otherwise you can have someone make a pick below or above a key number then have it move the beyond that key number and then say their pick was wrong, I imagine the main reason they make the pick is b/c there is perceived value on that number...

I'm not sure where this idea came from. It seems to be the rule the guy grading them uses, but that is just a singular way to look at it.

For example, look at the Sports Reporter Best Bets this week. They picked 4 underdogs and said all would win outright. The line had nothing to do with their picks (same for all 7 best bets in the Gold Sheet). Why would you grade Eastern Michigan as a win when Sports Reporter said they would win outright and the last time the line was +4 was on October 17th and the game was played on October 21st? That makes no sense to me.

Either way, the grading only changes a handful of games over the course of a season. You can tell how well they do, or are doing, based on the closing line or the lines the print.

 

[BuzzKill]

Mendoza Line Newsletter tracking (through 10/22/17)

Mendoza Line cumulative year to date record, through October 22:

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

I put some of the extreme hot and cold plays in bold this week.

CKO (we did not get CKO this week)
11* (2-4-1)
10* (14-13)
Totals (6-6)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA (NCAA and NFL plays tracked here went 1-9 combined so far this week)
5* (2-5-1)
4* (5-3)
3* (4-4)
Upset pick (1-6-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (5-6)
Awesome Angle (6-4)
Incredible Stat (3-4)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (4-3)
4* (2-5)
3* (2-4) (Washington +5 pending for Monday night)

Pointwise NCAA (5-3 this week)
1* (9-5)
2* (7-0-1)
3* (3-5)
4* (3-13)
5* (12-4)

Pointwise NFL (2-2-1 this week)
3* (4-3)
4* (5-8-1)
5* (7-7)

PowerSweep NCAA
4* (3-4)
3* (7-8-1)
2* (11-5)
Underdog Play of the Week (3-5)
Tech Play of the Week (2-4)
Revenge Play of the Week (4-3)
Situational Play of the Week (2-5)
Series Play of the Week (4-2)

PowerSweep NFL
4* (5-2)
3* (5-2)
2* (1-6)
NFL System play (4-2-1) (pushed with Jets +3 this week)
4* Pro Angle (2-1)

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (3-11-1)
2* (11-10-2)
1* (1-1)

Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-1)
3* (2-3)
2* (7-7)
1* (0-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (1-0)
NCAA Best Bets (12-18)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (6-7)

Red Sheet (5-1 overall this week, 10-2 overall the last 2 weeks)
89* (9-5-1)
88* (16-10-1)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (0-8)
NCAA 3* (5-2-1)
NFL 4* (2-5)
NFL 3* (3-4)

Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (1-0)
MTI 4.5* (4-2)
MTI 4* (3-4)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (3-0)
SBB 4* (3-8)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (5-2)
2* (7-6-1)

PowerPlays (4-0 overall this week)
NCAA 4.5* (8-13-2)
NFL 4* (2-5)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (16-14-1)
NFL Key Releases (10-10) (Washington +4.5 pending for Monday night)

 

[Criz]

Okay, so I've been tracking VSiN's NFL Consensus, which is typically found on page 4 of their newsletter..
Matt Youmans is 43-23 (65%) 19-14 O/U (58%) 24-9 against the spread (73%)
Power Rating is 42-24 (64%) 20-13 O/U (61%) 22-11 against the spread (67%)
Bettor Ratings is 41-25 (62%) 19-14 O/U (58%) 22-11 against the spread (67%)
The consensus pick of those three.. 46-20 (70%) 21-12 O/U (64%) 25-8 against the spread (76%)

Furthermore..

When Matt and Power Rating make the same selection.. 25-6 (81%) 9-3 O/U (75%) 16-3 against the spread (84%)
When Matt and Bettor Ratings make the same selection.. 25-7 (78%) 9-4 O/U (69%) 16-3 against the spread (84%)
When Power Rating and Bettor Ratings make the same selection.. 32-15 (68%) 15-10 O/U (60%) 17-5 against the spread (77%)
When ALL 3 make the same selection.. 18-4 (82%) 6-2 O/U (75%) 12-2 against the spread (86%)

I will continue to track this and post the recommended bets each week on Wednesday when the newsletter is posted.