NCAAF Systems

[rolltide]

That said, I have extra parameters that really make it pop.......51-11 ATS........GTECH qualifies this week just like Air Force this past weekend....That said, it can also applies to small Home Favorites as well on mine.

would love to see the qualifiers unless you don't want to share?

 

[Well-Seasoned]

would love to see the qualifiers unless you don't want to share?

You are really close although I'm using Games 4-11 (excluding 12) and r>9 instead of 11...........I'll start off your with base though instead and put some parameters in there and post it here since it has been around awhile to the point I'm sure Vegas fully knows it as well (the base variables at least)

 

[rolltide]

thx for reminding me to run that one... don't understand the r>9 though ... r=11 just 50/50

P:L and p:W and HCD and rest > 11 and 12 > game number > 3 and op:W
SU: 35-60-3 (-5.26, 36.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 72-24-2 (4.81, 75.0%) avg line: 10.1 +6: 77-20-1 (79.4%) -6: 47-50-1 (48.5%) +10: 80-18-0 (81.6%) -10: 33-62-3 (34.7%) O/U: 12-13-2 (-0.13, 48.0%) avg total: 53.8 +6: 11-16-0 (40.7%) -6: 17-10-0 (63.0%) +10: 9-18-0 (33.3%) -10: 19-7-1 (73.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 39.7 142.3 30.1 16.0 200.0 1.9 5.6 6.3 5.7 5.0 21.1 Opp 36.7 176.3 32.9 19.5 235.1 1.9 6.4 8.6 7.2 7.8 26.3
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 GTCH MIAF home 1.5

and a nice little tightener for this weekend... (on GT)

P:L and p:W and HCD and rest > 11 and 12 > game number > 3 and op:W and line < 15.5 and Points > 3
SU: 31-33-3 (0.30, 48.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 54-11-2 (7.63, 83.1%) avg line: 7.3 +6: 58-9-0 (86.6%) -6: 36-31-0 (53.7%) +10: 59-8-0 (88.1%) -10: 26-38-3 (40.6%) O/U: 7-10-1 (-1.08, 41.2%) avg total: 53.5 +6: 7-11-0 (38.9%) -6: 10-8-0 (55.6%) +10: 6-12-0 (33.3%) -10: 12-5-1 (70.6%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 42.2 155.6 28.9 16.2 205.4 1.7 5.7 8.6 6.7 5.1 23.3 Opp 35.7 157.9 31.9 18.1 226.9 2.2 5.8 6.9 5.2 8.1 23.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 GTCH MIAF home 1.5

 

[Well-Seasoned]

HD and C and p:W and P:LD and game number >3 and rest >9 and o:rest <7 and op:margin >9 and game number <12

http://www.sportsdatabase.com/ncaaf...n+>9+and+game+number+<12&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++


47-12 ATS............and it holds up on the Regression Count as well (12-1 ATS last 13 and a Push)


and Home Underdog is Less than 10..............29-4 ATS.........8-1-1 ATS Regression Count


Counting Home Chalk Under 3.........50-12 ATS on first one.

 

[rolltide]

thx WS ... reworking that one a bit pull up the Bulldogs this weekend as long as they stay below -2.5 fav.... (on GT, on MISS ST)

HC and p:W and P:LD and 12 > game number > 3 and rest > 11 and op:margin > 5 ... and 26 > line > -2.5
SU: 31-33-2 (-0.05, 48.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 55-9-2 (7.74, 85.9%) avg line: 7.8 +6: 58-8-0 (87.9%) -6: 36-28-2 (56.2%) +10: 59-7-0 (89.4%) -10: 26-38-2 (40.6%) O/U: 4-10-1 (-4.23, 28.6%) avg total: 51.0 +6: 4-11-0 (26.7%) -6: 8-7-0 (53.3%) +10: 3-12-0 (20.0%) -10: 9-6-0 (60.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 43.3 157.7 26.1 13.5 174.7 1.8 3.8 6.6 5.9 6.1 22.9 Opp 33.0 142.7 32.0 18.2 214.3 2.0 5.6 6.7 4.4 7.3 23.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 GTCH MIAF home 1.5 Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 MSST TXAM home -1.5

 

[mws]

You are really close although I'm using Games 4-11 (excluding 12) and r>9 instead of 11...........I'll start off your with base though instead and put some parameters in there and post it here since it has been around awhile to the point I'm sure Vegas fully knows it as well (the base variables at least)

Yeah, you can see a significant line adjustment when the angle applies. How has it held up over recent years since they've been adjusting?

 

[mws]

It looks like you already answered my Q. Thanks.

 

[rolltide]

OPPOSE big favs from last week that needed OT to win a conference game and now playing a conference team with at least double revenge (on MISS ST)

pvertime > 0 and p:FCW and -27.5 < p:line < -6 and C and P:W and PP:W and ... season > 1998
SU: 13-14-0 (1.00, 48.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-25-1 (-9.19, 3.8%) avg line: -10.2 +6: 11-15-1 (42.3%) -6: 1-26-0 (3.7%) +10: 17-10-0 (63.0%) -10: 1-26-0 (3.7%) O/U: 4-7-1 (-8.58, 36.4%) avg total: 53.1 +6: 2-10-0 (16.7%) -6: 5-7-0 (41.7%) +10: 2-10-0 (16.7%) -10: 5-7-0 (41.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 43.5 190.7 27.4 16.7 193.8 1.5 6.3 7.3 6.2 7.6 27.2 Opp 32.6 110.1 32.4 18.4 180.8 1.9 5.3 6.8 2.6 2.3 26.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 TXAM MSST away 1.5 67.0

play ON at least 1-loss home teams with double (or more) revenge off b2b great defense (on NW)

pooints + ppooints < 23 and H and opoints > 21 and op:margin > -12 ...WP < 100
SU: 57-44-2 (1.87, 56.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 74-28-1 (5.07, 72.5%) avg line: 3.2 +6: 79-22-2 (78.2%) -6: 52-48-3 (52.0%) +10: 86-16-1 (84.3%) -10: 34-69-0 (33.0%) O/U: 10-13-1 (-2.60, 43.5%) avg total: 49.7 +6: 7-17-0 (29.2%) -6: 14-10-0 (58.3%) +10: 4-20-0 (16.7%) -10: 17-7-0 (70.8%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.7 140.7 30.7 18.0 220.5 1.9 4.7 8.7 5.7 5.5 23.1 Opp 32.9 106.7 38.7 22.2 256.0 2.5 5.3 7.5 4.2 4.8 21.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 NORW WIS home 8.0 48.5

 

[rolltide]

surprising one here....this is not a system just something i queried for situation. Hawaii home and rested vs team coming from mainland unrested. figured this would be a nice spot for them but.....not

team = HAW and rest = 13 and o:rest = 6 and season > 1993
SU: 9-13-0 (-4.09, 40.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 8-14-0 (-4.55, 36.4%) avg line: -0.5 +6: 10-11-1 (47.6%) -6: 7-15-0 (31.8%) +10: 13-9-0 (59.1%) -10: 5-17-0 (22.7%) O/U: 3-5-0 (-2.69, 37.5%) avg total: 58.4 +6: 3-5-0 (37.5%) -6: 5-3-0 (62.5%) +10: 0-8-0 (0.0%) -10: 5-3-0 (62.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.1 104.4 44.6 28.0 365.2 3.2 11.5 11.0 8.2 2.6 25.3 Opp 37.4 102.6 33.5 18.0 197.1 1.8 6.0 6.2 4.4 5.8 29.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 HAW RICE away 6.5 54.0

 

[phantom888]

surprising one here....this is not a system just something i queried for situation. Hawaii home and rested vs team coming from mainland unrested. figured this would be a nice spot for them but.....not

Hawaii's going to the mainland to play. They haven't won a road game in three years.

 

[rolltide]

Hawaii's going to the mainland to play. They haven't won a road game in three years.

right, hawaii rested going to mainland vs unrested team is the query above. wires crossed, query still relevant

 

[phantom888]

right, hawaii rested going to mainland vs unrested team is the query above. wires crossed, query still relevant

OK thanks. I would've preferred Rice going to Hawaii, then play a rested Hawaii team at home. BUT....

thanks!

 

[rolltide]

i put something similar up last week and this game fit the same Notre Dame trend. since Kelly has been coach and ND either dog or fav of 15 or less...

team = NOTD and season >= 2010 and line > -15.5
SU: 26-15-0 (4.51, 63.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 19-20-2 (1.55, 48.7%) avg line: -3.0 +6: 26-15-0 (63.4%) -6: 14-27-0 (34.1%) +10: 33-8-0 (80.5%) -10: 10-31-0 (24.4%) O/U: 8-32-1 (-8.22, 20.0%) avg total: 51.1 +6: 5-36-0 (12.2%) -6: 16-25-0 (39.0%) +10: 3-38-0 (7.3%) -10: 23-17-1 (57.5%)

 

[rolltide]

same as above but KO when they're dogs of 3+

team = NOTD and season >= 2010 and -15.5 < line < 3 and date < 20141011
SU: 20-7-0 (7.67, 74.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 11-14-2 (-0.04, 44.0%) avg line: -7.7 +6: 17-10-0 (63.0%) -6: 7-20-0 (25.9%) +10: 22-5-0 (81.5%) -10: 6-21-0 (22.2%) O/U: 2-24-1 (-10.89, 7.7%) avg total: 51.0 +6: 1-26-0 (3.7%) -6: 8-19-0 (29.6%) +10: 0-27-0 (0.0%) -10: 14-12-1 (53.8%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 34.5 154.3 34.5 20.8 242.3 1.9 6.9 6.2 5.8 4.8 23.9 Opp 34.4 132.0 32.3 18.7 195.6 1.6 4.3 4.9 2.4 4.6 16.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 NOTD STAN home 2.0 44.5

 

[Well-Seasoned]

The trend is especially strong with teams that are 3 points or more dogs. This article came out during the BCS period in 2012. And in BCS conference games this trend was 41-18-4 ATS. And 20-5 ATS in non-bcs conference games. I just noticed this trend today because as RT says, we don't see nearly as many 49 and under lined games. I'm always looking for it, but rarely see it.

Hope you had some of those plays last week.............I completely forgot about it since Totals come out later and plugging everything in except that one since Totals weren't out yet............Just a missed opportunity on my part especially since 3 plays were generated which means you could go in math bully mode (when a very strong situational generates 3 or more plays on one week you play them all hoping to go at least 2-1, so of course it went 3-0 last week and all 3 fit the special tightener I have that makes it really pop.

 

[rolltide]

mid-late season home conference big favs (at least -24 so watch the line) after taking an asswhooping have done very well incl 5-0 ATS with extra rest (on No ILL)

game number >= 5 and HCF and line <= -24 and -55<=p:margin <= -24
SU: 27-0-0 (37.67, 100.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 21-5-1 (9.89, 80.8%) avg line: -27.8 +6: 27-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 13-13-1 (50.0%) +10: 27-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 10-17-0 (37.0%) O/U: 3-6-0 (-5.28, 33.3%) avg total: 59.8 +6: 3-6-0 (33.3%) -6: 4-5-0 (44.4%) +10: 1-8-0 (11.1%) -10: 6-3-0 (66.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.6 233.6 30.2 20.1 268.8 1.1 10.3 12.9 12.3 8.3 48.3 Opp 32.2 77.6 36.6 20.9 195.0 1.6 0.3 4.6 2.7 3.1 10.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 NIL KEST home -24.5 59.0

PLAY UNDER on home team with b2b great defense and opponent that scored a bunch last game (definitely ON TCU under ... will be ON Wisc under if stays no higher than 48.5 and also ON Bama under if moves to 51.5)

pooints + ppooints < 20 and H and opoints > 26 and op:margin <= 24 ....
SU: 53-19-0 (12.94, 73.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 39-30-3 (1.08, 56.5%) avg line: -11.9 +6: 52-20-0 (72.2%) -6: 25-45-2 (35.7%) +10: 54-18-0 (75.0%) -10: 20-52-0 (27.8%) O/U: 21-50-1 (-5.24, 29.6%) avg total: 51.5 +6: 15-57-0 (20.8%) -6: 34-38-0 (47.2%) +10: 9-63-0 (12.5%) -10: 40-31-1 (56.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.5 163.6 28.8 16.9 215.4 1.8 7.3 8.7 6.1 7.1 29.6 Opp 36.3 122.8 30.2 16.0 182.5 2.2 2.9 4.9 3.3 5.2 16.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 NORW WIS home 8.0 48.5 Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 TCU OKLA home 5.0 56.5

 

[rolltide]

play UNDER single digit dogs who were getting 22+ vs same team last year (FIU u, NEV u, WMU u)

P:L and P:season = season -1 and P:line >= 22 and line <= 9 and date > 20091101 ...
SU: 18-22-0 (-1.73, 45.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 22-18-0 (1.41, 55.0%) avg line: 3.1 +6: 29-11-0 (72.5%) -6: 12-28-0 (30.0%) +10: 32-8-0 (80.0%) -10: 9-29-2 (23.7%) O/U: 9-31-0 (-6.19, 22.5%) avg total: 55.3 +6: 6-34-0 (15.0%) -6: 18-21-1 (46.2%) +10: 5-35-0 (12.5%) -10: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 38.8 155.3 29.4 17.4 225.3 1.8 4.7 7.2 6.3 5.5 23.7 Opp 37.8 169.6 31.3 19.2 227.7 1.8 6.0 7.5 6.8 5.2 25.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 NEV BOIS home 3.5 50.5 Oct 04, 2014 Saturday 6 2014 WMCH TOL home 6.0 68.0 Oct 02, 2014 Thursday 6 2014 FINT FATL home 6.5 48.5

 

[rolltide]

tonight grading against....
Oregon -23.5 (64-17)
FIU/FAU under 47 (31-9, 62-25)



will update lines and fits on sat morning but so far...
Sat:
WVU (64-17)
Baylor (19-3)
Marshall (112-49, 32-14)
Wash St (58-19)
Clemson (49-17, 41-11)
Colorado (49-17, 41-11)
So Cal (49-17)
Ga Tech (72-24)
Miss St (55-9 if -2 or less, 25-1)
Mid Tenn if -17.5 or higher (115-58)
Wis/NW under (62-25, 50-21)
Akr/EMU under (62-25)
WS/CAL under (62-25)
TCU/OU under (50-21)
No Ill/Kent cancel (64-17 & 21-5 vs 49-17)
Wis/NW cancel (19-3 vs 74-28)

 

[Devo2487]

tonight grading against....
Oregon -23.5 (64-17)
FIU/FAU under 47 (31-9, 62-25)



will update lines and fits on sat morning but so far...
Sat:
WVU (64-17)
Baylor (19-3)
Marshall (112-49, 32-14)
Wash St (58-19)
Clemson (49-17, 41-11)
Colorado (49-17, 41-11)
So Cal (49-17)
Ga Tech (72-24)
Miss St (55-9 if -2 or less, 25-1)
Mid Tenn if -17.5 or higher (115-58)
Wis/NW under (62-25, 50-21)
Akr/EMU under (62-25)
WS/CAL under (62-25)
TCU/OU under (50-21)
No Ill/Kent cancel (64-17 & 21-5 vs 49-17)
Wis/NW cancel (19-3 vs 74-28)

Rolltide sry for the inconvenience jus wondering what the record ytd is for this system I didn't see it! I am new to this kind of info so also curious as to what the information in the ( ) means! Is that the number of wins ats vs number of losses? Thanks sir

 

[rolltide]

tonight grading against....
Oregon -23.5 (64-17)
FIU/FAU under 47 (31-9, 62-25)

now oregon is -21.5 which is threshold for that system. if drops to -21 (seems likely) they are out of range for system ... now would be graded at -21.5 but depends on CL ... is not a system play at -21

devo, record is in post 98...just take 3 seconds to look please

the () corresponds to the history of the systems i am posting. example ... No Ill fits 64-17 and 21-5 favorable systems but an opposing 49-17 system which is why it cancels. marshall would be active under two systems which are listed next to them and also shown in the previous threads

all the info is right there...no hidden card tricks. got to killersports or sportsdatabase for more info. never play any of this blindly but use the information to either validate or cancel out some of your own capping.