NCAAF Systems

[rolltide]

Doesn't look like it holds up if your parameters are correct.

this was a level 1 query...i'm never going to get those wrong. 10-19 ATS certainly isn't 0-15 ATS but not terrible either

 

[rolltide]

i am taking ohio +13 and here is why: sec teams at home not favored by more than 3 touchdowns against mac teams are 0-15 vs the line if the sec team is a conference dog in next game (kentucky will be a dog in florida next week)

this one is pretty damn close...

H and conference = SEC and o:conference = MAC and line > -21.5 and n:CD
SU: 11-4-0 (7.47, 73.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-12-2 (-6.43, 7.7%) avg line: -13.9 +6: 6-8-1 (42.9%) -6: 1-14-0 (6.7%) +10: 9-6-0 (60.0%) -10: 1-14-0 (6.7%) O/U: 1-2-0 (0.17, 33.3%) avg total: 46.5 +6: 1-2-0 (33.3%) -6: 2-1-0 (66.7%) +10: 1-2-0 (33.3%) -10: 2-1-0 (66.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 39.0 155.3 23.0 13.7 181.0 2.7 7.0 6.7 9.0 4.7 28.1 Opp 31.7 83.0 36.7 19.3 247.0 1.7 2.0 8.0 6.3 3.0 20.7

even taking out the "next dog" parameter and just have next game be a conference game this holds up:

H and conference = SEC and o:conference = MAC and line > -21.5 and n:C and season > 1991
SU: 13-5-0 (7.44, 72.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 3-14-1 (-6.00, 17.6%) avg line: -13.4 +6: 7-10-1 (41.2%) -6: 2-15-1 (11.8%) +10: 12-5-1 (70.6%) -10: 1-17-0 (5.6%) O/U: 1-3-0 (-2.62, 25.0%) avg total: 47.9 +6: 1-3-0 (25.0%) -6: 2-2-0 (50.0%) +10: 1-3-0 (25.0%) -10: 2-2-0 (50.0%)

 

[rolltide]

colorado and colorado state are on a 0-11 run vs the line after winning their rivalry game as underdog or small favorite of 3 or less. (colorado state won the rivalry game vs colorado last week as +2.5 dog)

honestly this one is pretty stupid. beating one team when it was a +3/-3 line? silly....anyway:

when buffs won the game:

when rams won the game:

team = COST and p:W and po:team = COLO and -3 <= p:line <= 3
SU: 0-1-0 (-18.00, 0.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 0-1-0 (-15.00, 0.0%) avg line: 3.0 +6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-1-0 (0.0%) +10: 0-1-0 (0.0%) -10: 0-1-0 (0.0%)

team = COLO and p:W and po:team = COST and -3 <= p:line <= 3
SU: 2-1-0 (-1.00, 66.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 0-3-0 (-1.50, 0.0%) avg line: -0.5 +6: 3-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 0-3-0 (0.0%) +10: 3-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 0-3-0 (0.0%)

gotta be going way, way back on that one....personally wouldn't pay that one any mind

 

[rolltide]

and as for the nfl: week 1 favorites out of division are 24-42 ATS if they have 1 divisional game coming up. They are 14-28 ATS in this situation if facing a team from another conference. So, I am taking Tennessee +3.5 and Indianapolis +7.5."

weird one here....so it is at least a plausible scenario not including "if facing a team from another conference" but neither of these games are non-conference games

anyway, leaving that part out and looking at last 66 situations...while his #'s are close the more recent situations aren't good at all

F and NDIV and week = 1 and nIV and nn:NDIV and season > 1989 SU: 38-28-0 (1.98, 57.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 24-39-3 (-2.77, 38.1%) avg line: -4.8 +6: 40-24-2 (62.5%) -6: 18-48-0 (27.3%) +10: 47-19-0 (71.2%) -10: 8-55-3 (12.7%) O/U: 31-35-0 (0.19, 47.0%) avg total: 40.9 +6: 19-46-1 (29.2%) -6: 43-22-1 (66.2%) +10: 17-48-1 (26.2%) -10: 51-14-1 (78.5%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.5 108.7 34.6 20.7 227.9 1.7 3.7 6.2 4.9 6.6 21.5 Opp 25.9 101.5 31.9 19.1 201.9 1.7 3.8 5.8 3.3 6.6 19.5 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 07, 2014 Sunday 1 2014 Chiefs Titans home -3.5 43.5 Sep 07, 2014 Sunday 1 2014 Broncos Colts home -7.5 55.5 essentially this was a decent system pre-2003 but hasn't held up in over 10 years: F and NDIV and week = 1 and nIV and nn:NDIV and ... games ATS W - L- P (marg, %win) Avg Line OU W - L- P (marg, %over) Avg Total SU W - L- P (marg, %over) SDQL 0 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) - 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) - 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) season = 2014 7 2-4-1 (-4.29, 33.3%) -3.7 3-4-0 (-3.36, 42.9%) 43.1 4-3-0 (-0.57, 57.1%) season = 2013 4 2-2-0 (-2.88, 50.0%) -8.9 3-1-0 (11.00, 75.0%) 45.5 2-2-0 (6.00, 50.0%) season = 2012 1 1-0-0 (0.50, 100.0%) -2.5 0-1-0 (-6.00, 0.0%) 37.0 1-0-0 (3.00, 100.0%) season = 2010 3 3-0-0 (8.33, 100.0%) -4.7 2-1-0 (3.67, 66.7%) 41.3 3-0-0 (13.00, 100.0%) season = 2009 5 3-2-0 (5.30, 60.0%) -6.5 3-2-0 (3.90, 60.0%) 43.9 3-2-0 (11.80, 60.0%) season = 2008 6 2-4-0 (-2.33, 33.3%) -3.0 1-5-0 (-4.67, 16.7%) 39.3 3-3-0 (0.67, 50.0%) season = 2007 5 1-4-0 (-4.70, 20.0%) -4.5 1-4-0 (-9.40, 20.0%) 40.0 2-3-0 (-0.20, 40.0%) season = 2006 4 2-2-0 (2.88, 50.0%) -3.9 2-2-0 (-4.88, 50.0%) 39.6 3-1-0 (6.75, 75.0%) season = 2005 1 0-1-0 (-0.50, 0.0%) -3.5 1-0-0 (4.00, 100.0%) 41.0 1-0-0 (3.00, 100.0%) season = 2004 3 2-1-0 (7.00, 66.7%) -4.0 2-1-0 (6.00, 66.7%) 41.0 2-1-0 (11.00, 66.7%) season = 2003 3 1-2-0 (-10.67, 33.3%) -3.7 3-0-0 (18.17, 100.0%) 39.5 1-2-0 (-7.00, 33.3%) season = 2002 2 1-0-1 (0.50, 100.0%) -6.5 0-2-0 (-10.00, 0.0%) 40.0 2-0-0 (7.00, 100.0%) season = 2001 2 0-2-0 (-14.00, 0.0%) -4.0 1-1-0 (8.00, 50.0%) 40.0 0-2-0 (-10.00, 0.0%) season = 1999 5 0-5-0 (-19.50, 0.0%) -4.9 4-1-0 (2.90, 80.0%) 40.1 1-4-0 (-14.60, 20.0%) season = 1997 5 2-3-0 (0.00, 40.0%) -5.8 1-4-0 (-4.50, 20.0%) 41.1 4-1-0 (5.80, 80.0%) season = 1996 4 0-3-1 (-8.75, 0.0%) -5.8 1-3-0 (-5.38, 25.0%) 38.4 2-2-0 (-3.00, 50.0%) season = 1995 2 0-2-0 (-5.25, 0.0%) -5.8 1-1-0 (1.75, 50.0%) 40.8 1-1-0 (0.50, 50.0%) season = 1994 1 1-0-0 (10.00, 100.0%) -2.0 1-0-0 (16.00, 100.0%) 38.0 1-0-0 (12.00, 100.0%) season = 1993 2 0-2-0 (-11.50, 0.0%) -3.5 0-2-0 (-9.75, 0.0%) 35.8 1-1-0 (-8.00, 50.0%) season = 1992 1 1-0-0 (27.50, 100.0%) -2.5 1-0-0 (19.00, 100.0%) 45.0 1-0-0 (30.00, 100.0%) season = 1991 2 2-0-0 (21.75, 100.0%) -5.8 0-1-1 (-2.75, 0.0%) 44.2 2-0-0 (27.50, 100.0%) season = 1989 Showing 1 to 22 of 22 entries

 

[rolltide]

basically that one was good from 1992-2002 going 5-19-2 but toss out those years and it's 19-20-1 (aka, coin flip)

F and NDIV and week = 1 and nIV and nn:NDIV and 2003 > season > 1991
SU: 13-13-0 (-3.31, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 5-19-2 (-8.27, 20.8%) avg line: -5.0 +6: 14-11-1 (56.0%) -6: 3-23-0 (11.5%) +10: 17-9-0 (65.4%) -10: 1-24-1 (4.0%)

 

[Biz]

Sorry Tide, wrong forum. Had an NFL system. I just deleted the post

 

[FrankieCat]

Rolltide...sorry if you covered this before but, I am not sure about the +6, -6, +10 & -10 in the teaser section. If it is a + does that mean you are teasing the underdog and if it is a - you are teasing the favorite??

Thank you for your help!! Go Pirates!!!!

 

[rolltide]

Rolltide...sorry if you covered this before but, I am not sure about the +6, -6, +10 & -10 in the teaser section. If it is a + does that mean you are teasing the underdog and if it is a - you are teasing the favorite??

Thank you for your help!! Go Pirates!!!!

just look at #40 as example

away favs in that scenario are 10-19 ATS but when you use the fav in a 6-point teaser (drop fav line down...) they were 18-11. if you went the other way and added 6 points to the line (fav needs to cover an extra 6 pts) you'd have gone 23-6

same with 10 pointers...

so the +6 refers to the team or situation you are querying. if you are querying a home dog at +2 then the "+6" are tells you how they fared at +8 and the "-6" tells you how they fared at -4.

 

[rolltide]

huge dogs that were just huge favorites last week....looks like barn and ucla could be laying some thumpings on sj and memphy today without giving up many points (teams avg just 11 ppg in this situation).

p:line <= -20 and line > 19 and p:margin > -4 ... and date > 19981001 ...
SU: 1-35-0 (-31.08, 2.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 8-26-2 (-6.50, 23.5%) avg line: 24.6 +6: 19-17-0 (52.8%) -6: 7-29-0 (19.4%) +10: 23-13-0 (63.9%) -10: 6-29-1 (17.1%) O/U: 10-16-2 (-3.29, 38.5%) avg total: 57.4 +6: 6-22-0 (21.4%) -6: 15-13-0 (53.6%) +10: 4-24-0 (14.3%) -10: 20-8-0 (71.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 33.6 113.2 32.3 17.8 172.5 1.9 3.3 2.8 2.8 4.3 11.4 Opp 41.4 218.6 29.5 20.0 256.9 1.5 9.0 12.4 9.2 10.4 42.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 06, 2014 Saturday 2 2014 SJST AUB away 32.5 66.5 Sep 06, 2014 Saturday 2 2014 MEM UCLA away 23.5 56.0

 

[rolltide]

small one here...play OVER week 2 after week 1 dog win vs opponent off a loss:

week = 2 and pW and op:L
SU: 6-10-0 (1.44, 37.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 9-7-0 (0.12, 56.2%) avg line: -1.3 +6: 11-5-0 (68.8%) -6: 4-12-0 (25.0%) +10: 11-5-0 (68.8%) -10: 3-13-0 (18.8%) O/U: 9-0-0 (16.78, 100.0%) avg total: 49.0 +6: 8-1-0 (88.9%) -6: 9-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 6-3-0 (66.7%) -10: 9-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 34.8 134.7 37.9 22.5 280.1 1.8 7.8 6.7 5.9 8.7 29.1 Opp 39.2 151.1 30.2 18.9 204.4 2.0 5.5 8.5 5.6 6.8 27.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 06, 2014 Saturday 2 2014 COST BOIS away 10.5 57.5 Sep 06, 2014 Saturday 2 2014 RUT HOW home Sep 06, 2014 Saturday 2 2014 TEM NAVY home 3.0 55.0

wow Temple total now 59.....

 

[Biz]

They read you Tide w-thumbs!^

 

[rolltide]

a couple for the midweek games:

conference game after big dog SU dd win away (UNDER)

p:ADW and C and 21 >= p:line >= 10 and season > 2005 and ...
SU: 41-40-0 (0.07, 50.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 41-38-2 (0.35, 51.9%) avg line: 0.3 +6: 55-26-0 (67.9%) -6: 25-55-1 (31.2%) +10: 59-20-2 (74.7%) -10: 18-62-1 (22.5%) O/U: 20-59-2 (-3.83, 25.3%) avg total: 52.5 +6: 16-65-0 (19.8%) -6: 42-39-0 (51.9%) +10: 12-68-1 (15.0%) -10: 57-21-3 (73.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 35.6 143.6 31.0 17.9 213.9 1.6 5.4 7.3 6.2 5.6 24.4 Opp 36.8 157.4 32.0 18.5 219.1 2.0 6.8 6.3 4.5 6.7 24.3
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 11, 2014 Thursday 3 2014 LTCH NTX away 3.5 48.0

bet OVER unrested midweek big dog

D and rest < 5 and line >= 15 and season > 2005
SU: 3-25-0 (-19.36, 10.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 15-12-1 (2.29, 55.6%) avg line: 21.6 +6: 21-7-0 (75.0%) -6: 11-17-0 (39.3%) +10: 22-6-0 (78.6%) -10: 10-18-0 (35.7%) O/U: 19-7-0 (7.79, 73.1%) avg total: 55.1 +6: 13-13-0 (50.0%) -6: 22-4-0 (84.6%) +10: 11-15-0 (42.3%) -10: 23-3-0 (88.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 33.4 122.9 32.4 17.8 201.5 2.1 4.7 6.2 3.1 6.5 20.6 Opp 41.0 221.8 26.0 17.1 255.1 1.6 11.5 12.3 8.8 7.1 39.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 11, 2014 Thursday 3 2014 HOU BYU away 17.5 58.0

 

[rolltide]

a pair of opposing ones here

play on dog avenging huge last season defeat where they allowed a ton of points (on BUF)

P:ADL and P:ats margin <= -11.5 ... and P:season = season -1
SU: 14-41-0 (-12.44, 25.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 41-14-0 (8.12, 74.5%) avg line: 20.6 +6: 44-10-1 (81.5%) -6: 33-22-0 (60.0%) +10: 48-7-0 (87.3%) -10: 26-29-0 (47.3%) O/U: 4-8-0 (-5.58, 33.3%) avg total: 57.0 +6: 2-10-0 (16.7%) -6: 5-6-1 (45.5%) +10: 2-10-0 (16.7%) -10: 9-3-0 (75.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.8 155.8 27.2 15.8 175.4 1.6 6.8 5.7 3.9 8.5 21.3 Opp 39.3 179.1 33.1 18.8 231.9 1.4 5.3 7.3 7.1 6.8 33.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 12, 2014 Friday 3 2014 BUF BAY home 35.0 69.5

oppose teams that just allowed 36+ if opponent beat last 2 opponents by 27+ each. (vs Buf if line stays 35 or less, vs CSU, vs Pur)

pooints > 36 and op:margin > 27 and opp:margin > 27 and line <= 35
SU: 21-136-0 (-21.20, 13.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 46-110-1 (-4.54, 29.5%) avg line: 16.7 +6: 79-74-4 (51.6%) -6: 40-116-1 (25.6%) +10: 96-59-2 (61.9%) -10: 30-126-1 (19.2%) O/U: 35-30-3 (3.98, 53.8%) avg total: 59.9 +6: 27-41-0 (39.7%) -6: 47-21-0 (69.1%) +10: 23-45-0 (33.8%) -10: 54-14-0 (79.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 35.7 121.2 35.4 20.0 226.1 1.9 4.1 6.0 5.0 6.2 19.1 Opp 39.2 206.9 33.4 21.3 282.0 1.5 10.5 12.6 10.0 8.8 40.3
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2014 Saturday 3 2014 COLO AZST home 15.5 68.0 Sep 13, 2014 Saturday 3 2014 PUR NOTD neutral 28.0 56.0 Sep 12, 2014 Friday 3 2014 BUF BAY home 35.0 69.5

play on home fav off huge home fav win scoring 52+ and opponent off blowout (on aTm)

points >= 52 and HF and p:HF and line >= -35 ...
SU: 57-1-0 (27.10, 98.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 47-11-0 (8.03, 81.0%) avg line: -19.1 +6: 52-6-0 (89.7%) -6: 28-26-4 (51.9%) +10: 54-4-0 (93.1%) -10: 23-33-2 (41.1%) O/U: 14-11-0 (3.98, 56.0%) avg total: 60.9 +6: 9-16-0 (36.0%) -6: 18-6-1 (75.0%) +10: 7-16-2 (30.4%) -10: 22-2-1 (91.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 39.4 185.8 32.3 22.3 319.2 1.9 11.8 14.1 11.4 9.1 43.4 Opp 36.7 124.8 33.0 17.4 195.9 1.6 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.9 16.3
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2014 Saturday 3 2014 TXAM RICE home -32.0 71.0

play under total 50.5-56.5 after team got blownout allowing 42+ (TEX u if in total range)

p:margin <= -21 and opoints >= 42 and 57 > total > 50
SU: 20-63-0 (-14.95, 24.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 36-46-1 (-1.95, 43.9%) avg line: 13.0 +6: 55-27-1 (67.1%) -6: 23-59-1 (28.0%) +10: 65-18-0 (78.3%) -10: 13-69-1 (15.9%) O/U: 24-58-1 (-3.68, 29.3%) avg total: 53.6 +6: 19-63-1 (23.2%) -6: 44-38-1 (53.7%) +10: 14-68-1 (17.1%) -10: 53-26-4 (67.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.2 132.4 29.6 16.6 183.0 2.0 3.5 4.9 3.6 5.2 17.5 Opp 39.1 189.5 28.1 17.4 227.3 1.5 8.0 9.8 7.4 7.3 32.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2014 Saturday 3 2014 TEX UCLA neutral 7.5 50.5

play UNDER with home defense allowing 19 or less in b2b games vs opponent just scored over 26 (STAN u)

pooints + ppooints < 20 and H and opoints > 26 and op:margin <= 24 and total > 50 and date > 20111101
SU: 10-2-0 (22.67, 83.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 7-4-1 (4.46, 63.6%) avg line: -18.2 +6: 10-2-0 (83.3%) -6: 5-6-1 (45.5%) +10: 10-2-0 (83.3%) -10: 4-8-0 (33.3%) O/U: 1-11-0 (-7.62, 8.3%) avg total: 58.5 +6: 1-11-0 (8.3%) -6: 5-7-0 (41.7%) +10: 1-11-0 (8.3%) -10: 6-6-0 (50.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 41.5 210.1 28.5 18.9 238.4 1.7 9.2 12.6 6.9 7.3 36.8 Opp 39.4 116.2 30.8 16.6 198.5 2.4 3.2 4.2 1.7 4.9 14.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2014 Saturday 3 2014 STAN ARMY home -28.0 53.0

 

[Steiner69eR]

Thanks, Roll.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

only 2 of the 6 bad teams with a new coach covered last week, my UAB Blazers and miami oh. Others were duds... Uconn, Wake, UMASS, and one other i'm forgetting. Army is the last team to qualify.... they're laying points to Buffalo.

luckily i was with a UAB group so didnt oppose them

hey, i love coaching angles............... i remember last year that i identified 3 teams got extremely good new coaches (cal, LA Tech and South Florida). they were all complete duds last year but are absolutely killing it so far this year (get things sorted out, get alot more guys in that they want, especially if they grab JC players)...

i know phil steele liked 3rd year coaches but i wonder if that has shifted somewhat to 2nd year coaches?

i wouldn't put army in same class as other teams. their players/systems are probably similar each year and they probably don't have attitude problems.

also, wonder about segmenting new coaches as to whether last coach moved down (fired) vs. moved up to better school. saw someone do a limited analysis and there didn't seem to be much to it, but it was very limited..

what about a system of just playing the most improved vs. most deteriorated so far?

similarly on O/U, biggest increases/decreases in O/U coverage or just total game score. seems like the market may take awhile to catch on that some 80 point team is now a 50 point team?

maybe i'll append those on here myself.

last question/comment: is there a site that lists coaches by year?

 

[rolltide]

got 30' ... let's run some systems.
first record cleanups....week 1 (9-6), week 2 (10-4-1)....then ugly week 3 (2-4-1) for 21-14-2 after 3 weeks




week 1
fresno = loss
temple = win
wky = win
USCe 1H = loss (game line moved out of range for straight bet)
FSU = loss
bama = loss
baylor = win
uga = win
hawaii = win
bad team, new coach = 4-2


week 2
ore = win
utah = win
wky/cmu/toledo = all fell out of range...none were in +4 to +9.5
temple o = push at time of post, loss after line move
boise o = win
rutg o = win
utsa = win
hawaii = win
toledo = loss
usf = win
tulsa = loss
utep = win
wyoming = win
bc = loss
aub = win
ucla = loss
buff = loss (vs army new coach)


week 3
LT u = loss
HOU o = push at time of post, loss later
Buff/Baylor = cancel
Colo = loss
Purd = loss
aTm = loss
Tex u = win
Stan u = win

 

[rolltide]

i know phil steele liked 3rd year coaches but i wonder if that has shifted somewhat to 2nd year coaches?

in NFL it's absolutely 2nd half of the season for 2nd year coaches...got some great stuff on their records.

in ncaaf i would have guessed it took longer than 1.5 years to see major results but could be wrong. reason is recruiting as it's really tough to change systems and expect great results with players that were a fit for a different system. it worked at the barn because the players there when malzahn took over were already recruited into that same system as he was only gone for 1 year.

year 3 you would expect guys like Freeze (looking good) and Leach (not so good) to really hit their stride.

 

[rolltide]

oppose big dogs that were just big favorites (on ORE)

p:line <= -20 and line > 19 and p:margin > -4 and ...
SU: 0-37-0 (-30.24, 0.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 9-26-2 (-6.00, 25.7%) avg line: 24.2 +6: 20-17-0 (54.1%) -6: 8-29-0 (21.6%) +10: 24-12-1 (66.7%) -10: 7-29-1 (19.4%) O/U: 12-15-2 (-1.31, 44.4%) avg total: 58.4 +6: 8-21-0 (27.6%) -6: 17-12-0 (58.6%) +10: 5-24-0 (17.2%) -10: 22-7-0 (75.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 33.8 117.9 33.9 18.7 192.1 2.0 3.4 3.5 3.3 4.9 13.0 Opp 41.7 214.9 30.1 20.4 260.0 1.4 9.7 13.6 8.7 10.0 43.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 WAST ORE home 23.5 74.0

play on big home favs (21.5-35.5) that are well rested (must stay 21.5 or higher) - on WISC

HF and -35.5 <= line <= -21.5 and 9 <= rest <= 15 ....
SU: 83-0-0 (34.82, 100.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 63-16-4 (7.49, 79.7%) avg line: -27.3 +6: 71-12-0 (85.5%) -6: 44-38-1 (53.7%) +10: 73-9-1 (89.0%) -10: 35-48-0 (42.2%) O/U: 33-29-1 (0.82, 53.2%) avg total: 59.1 +6: 18-44-1 (29.0%) -6: 39-22-2 (63.9%) +10: 13-48-2 (21.3%) -10: 48-14-1 (77.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 41.0 235.7 29.3 20.0 279.2 1.4 12.5 14.1 12.6 8.3 47.1 Opp 33.0 92.8 31.9 17.3 181.5 2.2 2.0 3.1 3.6 3.8 12.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 WIS BOWL home -21.5

play against home conference dogs after blowout win (on ORE)

HCD and p:margin > 20 and ...
SU: 1-18-0 (-20.47, 5.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-18-0 (-15.03, 5.3%) avg line: 5.4 +6: 4-15-0 (21.1%) -6: 1-18-0 (5.3%) +10: 6-13-0 (31.6%) -10: 0-18-1 (0.0%) O/U: 10-9-0 (-2.00, 52.6%) avg total: 60.7 +6: 7-12-0 (36.8%) -6: 12-7-0 (63.2%) +10: 6-13-0 (31.6%) -10: 12-7-0 (63.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.8 146.3 33.9 19.5 213.1 2.1 3.8 5.4 5.8 4.1 19.1 Opp 42.3 221.8 30.0 20.3 258.4 1.3 9.4 11.7 9.3 9.2 39.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 WAST ORE home 23.5 74.0

play on team off b2b blowout wins vs team that allow a lot of points (on Mizzou, on ORE, on ARK) - only 10/115 wins didn't cover the spread

p:margin >= 17 and pp:margin >= 17 ... 17 >= line >= -30
SU: 115-43-0 (12.66, 72.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 105-50-3 (4.38, 67.7%) avg line: -8.3 +6: 117-37-4 (76.0%) -6: 75-80-3 (48.4%) +10: 125-33-0 (79.1%) -10: 59-96-3 (38.1%) O/U: 36-30-1 (1.84, 54.5%) avg total: 62.5 +6: 27-40-0 (40.3%) -6: 41-26-0 (61.2%) +10: 22-45-0 (32.8%) -10: 46-21-0 (68.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.7 188.7 33.0 21.2 280.4 1.4 10.0 10.4 8.7 8.8 36.1 Opp 37.9 154.4 35.3 21.4 248.4 2.1 5.8 6.5 6.9 6.5 23.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 ARK NIL home -14.5 Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 MIZ IND home -17.0 Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 ORE WAST away -23.5

oppose teams allowing 36+ when facing team off b2b blowout wins (on aTm)

pooints > 36 and op:margin > 27 and opp:margin > 27 and line <= 35
SU: 21-139-0 (-21.26, 13.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 48-111-1 (-4.42, 30.2%) avg line: 16.8 +6: 81-75-4 (51.9%) -6: 41-118-1 (25.8%) +10: 99-59-2 (62.7%) -10: 31-128-1 (19.5%) O/U: 36-32-3 (3.74, 52.9%) avg total: 60.1 +6: 28-43-0 (39.4%) -6: 48-23-0 (67.6%) +10: 24-47-0 (33.8%) -10: 56-15-0 (78.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 35.6 122.0 35.6 20.3 227.8 1.9 4.0 6.1 5.1 6.1 19.1 Opp 39.1 205.9 33.5 21.3 283.4 1.5 10.7 12.5 10.1 8.7 40.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 SMU TXAM home 31.0

oppose conference fav after home dog win vs opponent in revenge spot (on VAN) - NOTE, IF LINE DROPS TO -21 or less this is canceled out by first month system in post #1. must wait for line at time of game. +21.5 to +23.5 = vandy ... 24+ or 21 or less = no play

CF and P:W and P:ats margin > -7 and p:HDW and -3.5 > line > -24
SU: 109-46-0 (7.23, 70.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 55-98-2 (-3.86, 35.9%) avg line: -11.1 +6: 86-68-1 (55.8%) -6: 45-109-1 (29.2%) +10: 102-51-2 (66.7%) -10: 27-127-1 (17.5%) O/U: 19-20-0 (-1.05, 48.7%) avg total: 53.2 +6: 14-25-0 (35.9%) -6: 23-16-0 (59.0%) +10: 9-30-0 (23.1%) -10: 27-11-1 (71.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.8 168.4 33.9 20.5 248.9 1.8 4.9 7.3 6.5 10.1 28.8 Opp 35.8 129.5 31.5 17.6 207.8 1.4 4.7 7.2 5.1 6.0 21.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 SCAR VAN away -21.5

play on team off b2b nice rushing games vs a team that can't run the ball (on Texas St)

A and op:rushing yards <= 100 and opp:rushing yards <= 100 and p:rushing yards >= 205 and pp:rushing yards >= 205
SU: 40-11-0 (11.00, 78.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 31-18-2 (4.46, 63.3%) avg line: -6.5 +6: 42-8-1 (84.0%) -6: 22-28-1 (44.0%) +10: 48-3-0 (94.1%) -10: 14-37-0 (27.5%) O/U: 24-25-2 (1.02, 49.0%) avg total: 56.1 +6: 16-35-0 (31.4%) -6: 30-21-0 (58.8%) +10: 14-37-0 (27.5%) -10: 32-18-1 (64.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 46.8 242.9 22.2 13.5 173.1 1.2 7.9 10.8 7.6 7.0 34.1 Opp 31.0 122.3 36.1 21.9 256.3 1.9 4.5 6.3 5.4 6.3 23.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2014 Saturday 4 2014 TXST ILL away 14.5

more later this afternoon when i have some time.

 

[indiana]

R/t.........nicely done..........appreciate the info............indy

 

[Biz]

Thanks Tide.