play UNDER with total in 50's after a blowout loss allowing 42+ (right now 56.5 is the ceiling...no play if goes higher)
play on home fav off a home fav blowout win vs team that got blown out
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play on home fav off a home fav blowout win vs team that got blown out
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this one has quite a few fits but you can't query last meeting being last season so that part you have to manually review.
game number =2 and line>-14 and P:W and p:W and F and P:game number<6
it's that query and then you look for which favs met the same opponent last year before their 6th game. teams to avoid or oppose this week are ARIZONA, MISSOURI, and OREGON STATE
aka play on UTSA, Toledo, and Hawaii
- USCe qualifies this week for both 1H and game bet vs ECU but line jumped 3 points already and I never recommend chasing big line moves
game number =2 and line>-14 and P:W and p:W and F and P:game number<6
it's that query and then you look for which favs met the same opponent last year before their 6th game. teams to avoid or oppose this week are ARIZONA, MISSOURI, and OREGON STATE
aka play on UTSA, Toledo, and Hawaii
- USCe qualifies this week for both 1H and game bet vs ECU but line jumped 3 points already and I never recommend chasing big line moves
oppose big away dog, week 2, off easy home fav win if opponent was favored by at least 34 in week 1
week 2 play on small conference home dog off home win vs opponent off home win (add Toledo if line returns to 4 or higher...Cmich not far off either)
small one here...play OVER week 2 after week 1 dog win vs opponent off a loss:
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thx SDF. how the f did i not do that? do it for nfl all the time....anyway: (BYU teetering on being fav)
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Your original post said in the first 3 weeks: "one that has no active games for week 1 is to play on small dogs, 3.5-10, in first 3 weeks if they have at least 6 more returning starters than opponent. you can pull the games down each week using this query..."
Conceptually I think this is ok for the first 4 games, so UTSA and Toledo fit for week #2 according to my #s
week 2 system. this one has had exactly 0 winning years since dbase has been active (1981) - another reason i was against zona last night btw... posted this one the other day but got erased
another interesting thing here is that there is not a conference immune to this week 2 road drop....
AF and p:HF and op:W and week = 2 and line < -2 and ...
Showing 1 to 12 of 12 entries
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AF and p:HF and op:W and week = 2 and line < -2 and ...
| games | ATS W - L- P (marg, %win) | Avg Line | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | SU W - L- P (marg, %over) | SDQL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1-0 (-36.50, 0.0%) | -8.5 | 1-0-0 (6.50, 100.0%) | 55.5 | 0-1-0 (-28.00, 0.0%) | conference = AAC |
| 3 | 0-3-0 (-5.33, 0.0%) | -5.3 | 1-1-1 (1.33, 50.0%) | 46.7 | 1-2-0 (0.00, 33.3%) | conference = ACC |
| 8 | 2-6-0 (-4.25, 25.0%) | -10.4 | 2-3-2 (2.50, 40.0%) | 49.1 | 5-3-0 (6.12, 62.5%) | conference = B10 |
| 7 | 2-5-0 (-2.57, 28.6%) | -13.6 | 3-3-0 (1.25, 50.0%) | 61.2 | 5-2-0 (11.00, 71.4%) | conference = B12 |
| 5 | 2-3-0 (-2.60, 40.0%) | -9.4 | 3-2-0 (0.40, 60.0%) | 46.0 | 4-1-0 (6.80, 80.0%) | conference = BE |
| 3 | 0-3-0 (-9.83, 0.0%) | -3.2 | 2-0-0 (16.25, 100.0%) | 52.8 | 0-3-0 (-6.67, 0.0%) | conference = IND |
| 2 | 1-1-0 (2.25, 50.0%) | -5.8 | 2-0-0 (21.50, 100.0%) | 53.5 | 1-1-0 (8.00, 50.0%) | conference = MAC |
| 0 | 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) | - | 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) | - | 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) | conference = MWC |
| 5 | 2-3-0 (-3.20, 40.0%) | -6.4 | 2-3-0 (-4.10, 40.0%) | 50.1 | 4-1-0 (3.20, 80.0%) | conference = P10 |
| 2 | 1-1-0 (5.00, 50.0%) | -16.0 | 1-1-0 (1.00, 50.0%) | 57.0 | 1-1-0 (21.00, 50.0%) | conference = P12 |
| 5 | 2-3-0 (-3.00, 40.0%) | -9.4 | 0-5-0 (-7.80, 0.0%) | 45.8 | 3-2-0 (6.40, 60.0%) | conference = SEC |
| 3 | 0-3-0 (-19.00, 0.0%) | -15.3 | 1-1-0 (-6.00, 50.0%) | 67.5 | 2-1-0 (-3.67, 66.7%) | conference = WAC |
for ncaa's and nhl you have to use http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query
killersports doesn't do NHL, ncaa hoops, ncaa foots.
yeah, i don't give away all of the systems exactly...I just share the results
anytime you see "..." that means i've taken out some of the query. gotta keep some stuff to myself with all this work
here is that full query. plug in:
AD and 5<line<28 and week=2 and p:HFW and p:margin>11 and op:line<=-34
Thanks for the headsup. I'm trying to educate myself a little more in this database area.
BTW, I received this email if you want to check these out. Not fond of team or conf specific trends but I do like the one for BC tonight.
"boston college +4.5 this week. road favorites after winning opener as home favorite are 0-15 vs the line if opponent won the opener as fave too. after bc, i am taking ohio +13 and here is why: sec teams at home not favored by more than 3 touchdowns against mac teams are 0-15 vs the line if the sec team is a conference dog in next game (kentucky will be a dog in florida next week). finishing the college card this week with boise laying 10 points. the system supporting this decision is this: colorado and colorado state are on a 0-11 run vs the line after winning their rivalry game as underdog or small favorite of 3 or less. (colorado state won the rivalry game vs colorado last week as +2.5 dog). and as for the nfl: week 1 favorites out of division are 24-42 ATS if they have 1 divisional game coming up. They are 14-28 ATS in this situation if facing a team from another conference. So, I am taking Tennessee +3.5 and Indianapolis +7.5."
BTW, I received this email if you want to check these out. Not fond of team or conf specific trends but I do like the one for BC tonight.
"boston college +4.5 this week. road favorites after winning opener as home favorite are 0-15 vs the line if opponent won the opener as fave too. after bc, i am taking ohio +13 and here is why: sec teams at home not favored by more than 3 touchdowns against mac teams are 0-15 vs the line if the sec team is a conference dog in next game (kentucky will be a dog in florida next week). finishing the college card this week with boise laying 10 points. the system supporting this decision is this: colorado and colorado state are on a 0-11 run vs the line after winning their rivalry game as underdog or small favorite of 3 or less. (colorado state won the rivalry game vs colorado last week as +2.5 dog). and as for the nfl: week 1 favorites out of division are 24-42 ATS if they have 1 divisional game coming up. They are 14-28 ATS in this situation if facing a team from another conference. So, I am taking Tennessee +3.5 and Indianapolis +7.5."
Doesn't look like it holds up if your parameters are correct.
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