***NCAAB Computer Picks III*** LEAN MACHINE & POD's

[Mistermj]

Sorry guys...but the line was -4 when I posted it and documented it at Wagerline very early this morning.

My intention was to make sure everyone had enough time to get on Saturday's early games...when I wait until the last minute then people complain about that.

This was some kind of fluke, mistake, or something happened. It's very unusual, let it go and move on.

What I can I do about it?

I don't line cheat...if anything I often get worse odds by documenting at Wagerline...but thats fine with me...I'm trying to keep it real.



<table id="ucLineHistory_tblLineHistory" class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ecece4"><td class="smtext2" width="40%">Pinnacle</td> <td class="datahl2c" align="center" width="30%">Odds (Line)</td> <td class="datahl2c" align="center" width="30%">Over/Under (Total)</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/15/10 7:36:29 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-4/-105 (Open)</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/15/10 7:46:29 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-4/-108</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/15/10 7:56:29 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-4/-115</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/15/10 8:06:29 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-4/-123</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">OFF</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/15/10 10:56:28 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-4/-123</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126 -108 (Open)</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 5:06:30 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-12/-102</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126 -108</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 8:26:28 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-12/-102</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126.5 -108</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 10:36:28 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-11.5/-105</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126.5 -108</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 10:46:30 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-11.5/-108</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126.5 -108</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 11:06:28 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-12/-105</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126.5 -108</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 11:26:34 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-13.5/-107</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126.5 -108</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 11:36:29 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-13.5/-105</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126.5 -108</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 11:46:30 AM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-13.5/-103</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126.5 -108</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td class="smtext2">01/16/10 12:26:29 PM</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">-13.5/-107</td> <td class="smtext2" align="center">126.5 -108</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[boxcar]

Don't even give it a second thought MJ. Good for you that you got that great line. Strange activity.

 

[Canesfan11]

something drastic must have happened to the other team

NE up 27-7 right now lol

 

[headquarters]

is your computer the famous one that wears tennis shoes?

That would explain the runaway line, lol ...

I'm still wondering what caused the move, does anybody know?

bol mrmj!

HQ

 

[Mistermj]

Don't even give it a second thought MJ. Good for you that you got that great line. Strange activity.

I've never received so much hate mail in my life as this morning's inbox...jesus.

This is what I get for staying up until 4 a.m. to get some plays out early for people?

I bust my balls on this stuff every day, and keep the most honest documented record that you can find from a handicapper...anywhere.

I don't line cheat...and I don't play stupid games with units or my overall record.

What you see is what you get.

Some people need to lighten up...Christ it was a mistake that I can't control...or something happened to NC Wilmington...I don't know.

hno:

As the saying goes...let no good deed go unpunished.

Tough crowd. :drink:

 

[diddy212]

honestly man, whoever sent that stuff can eat a d*ck

 

[cluckyduck]

Im upset i missed it! Your game woulda won either way so i donno why anyone would be whining even though thats besides the point cause im sure you wouldnt lie about a spread...

Your the only person on here i can follow confidently everytime cause your selective. Im liking your new system, keep it up.

Thanks MMJ

 

[Kegler]

Ignore those chumps MJ anyone complaining about your posts is an idiot.

 

[Kegler]

OK Guys listen up. Those of you who have a brain know how to use it. This is for those dummies who are clueless. If MJ says take Northeastern -4 and your line is -12 then pass. It's not that hard. There will be plenty of more games later today or the next day.

Thanks for all you do MJ.

 

[Green17]

I've never received so much hate mail in my life as this morning's inbox...jesus.

This is what I get for staying up until 4 a.m. to get some plays out early for people?

I bust my balls on this stuff every day, and keep the most honest documented record that you can find from a handicapper...anywhere.

I don't line cheat...and I don't play stupid games with units or my overall record.

What you see is what you get.

Some people need to lighten up...Christ it was a mistake that I can't control...or something happened to NC Wilmington...I don't know.

hno:

As the saying goes...let no good deed go unpunished.

Tough crowd. :drink:

You are 1000% right.

To use the term ungrateful is too kind.

There is nothing you can do to please everyone, and it seems only the "squawking heel" gets the grease.

I saw the line of -4 and when I went to bet it was -13. So due to my confusion, I stayed away. So what! We move on and go forward.

Thanks for all that you do.

 

[doogieboy]

OK Guys listen up. Those of you who have a brain know how to use it. This is for those dummies who are clueless. If MJ says take Northeastern -4 and your line is -12 then pass. It's not that hard. There will be plenty of more games later today or the next day.

Thanks for all you do MJ.

Here here, exactly my sentiments

 

[Mistermj]

NCAAB Home System

My scans are complete for Saturday...and nothing else qualifies today for the NCAAB Home System...which is very selective and it's still early in conference play.

However, Cal State Fullerton -6.5 would be a pick if the line was -5.

I'm just throwing that out for people to help with your own handicapping. I will not pick it...and it will not count for anything...just passing on the info. It's borderline because -5 is my line in the sand with this system...but I've never really analyzed if that is exactly where the cut off should be. It has worked for me in the past at +5 to -5 for NCAA...so I go with it.
================================================
NCAAB Leans

I have something else to share that I have been working on. It's a very raw scan that depends on volume of selections. This is very experimental, follow it with great caution.

There are a lot of picks...because I may want to data mine these selections to pull another system out of it. I would be surprised if this does badly...but I may need to put some rules on the higher lines.

Saturday, January 16 NCAAB Leans




<table class="thepicks"><tbody><tr class="firstline"><td>Georgia Southern </td> <td> - </td> <td>4:00 PM ET</td> <td>Furman -4.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Furman </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 147.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Vanderbilt </td> <td> - </td> <td>6:00 PM ET</td> <td>Vanderbilt +1</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> South Carolina </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 150.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Colorado St. </td> <td> - </td> <td>6:00 PM ET</td> <td>Brigham Young -18</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Brigham Young </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Rutgers </td> <td> - </td> <td>7:00 PM ET</td> <td>South Florida -8.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> South Florida </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 128.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Jacksonville St. </td> <td> - </td> <td>7:00 PM ET</td> <td>Jacksonville St. -2.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tenn-Martin </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 148</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Elon University </td> <td> - </td> <td>7:00 PM ET</td> <td>Western Carolina -16</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Western Carolina </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> SE Missouri St. </td> <td> - </td> <td>7:00 PM ET</td> <td>Eastern Kentucky -18</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eastern Kentucky </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 137.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Southern Illinois </td> <td> - </td> <td>8:05 PM ET</td> <td>Southern Illinois -6</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evansville </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 135.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Tennessee Tech </td> <td> - </td> <td>8:30 PM ET</td> <td>Murray St. -18.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Murray St. </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 151</td> <td>500</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table class="data" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td class="left">Date</td> <td class="center">WLT</td> <td>Pct</td> <td>Net Units</td> <td>Record</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">01/15/10</td> <td class="center">0-1-0</td> <td>0.00%</td> <td>-550</td> <td>Detail</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">01/14/10</td> <td class="center">2-2-0</td> <td>50.00%</td> <td>-100</td> <td>Detail</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">01/13/10</td> <td class="center">4-1-0</td> <td>80.00%</td> <td>+1450</td> <td>Detail</td> </tr> <tr class="highlight"> <td class="left">Record:</td> <td class="center">6-4-0</td> <td>60.00%</td> <td>+800</td> <td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[jopo]

Thanks for all your hard work!

What's the big deal. I don't always get the same line as you. Either way......it's my money my decision. If I don't like the line I get, then I don't play it!!!
WIN OR LOSE............Thanks for all your hard work buddy.
Your plays are what I wait for.
Please don't listen to these asshole!!!
I think you have a real strong quiet following. We work hard all day come home and first thing we check is to see your plays for the day.
Thanks again MJ

 

[JimmyJet]

MJ..you have been here long enough to know that some are just stupid...some are probably friends of the bookies...and some just have no clue what work is involved in what you do...ignore all and thanks again for all you do.

 

[Mistermj]

MJ..you have been here long enough to know that some are just stupid...some are probably friends of the bookies...and some just have no clue what work is involved in what you do...ignore all and thanks again for all you do.

It's funny how it worked out...Northeastern dusted the -13 line by 10 points anyway !

We should be happy with what we have here... The NCCAB Home System is now 3-0 and 19-4 including last year.

Amazing! :toast:

 

[Curdawg]

Great job my man...keep it up. BOL

 

[DChosta]

Good to see you're hitting a hot stride right now MJ, hope you keep it going and I'll be sure to keep a closer eye on this system you got here brotha.. G'luck!

 

[Mistermj]

It's early yet...but I really like what I see with the leans so far.

We have a chance to kick some major ass today.

Most recent update...

Saturday, January 16

<table class="thepicks"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="32%">Game</td> <td width="15%">Score</td> <td width="15%">Status</td> <td width="29%">Pick</td> <td width="9%">Amount</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Georgia Southern </td> <td>45</td> <td>Final</td> <td>Furman -4.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Furman </td> <td>69</td> <td> </td> <td>Under 147.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Vanderbilt </td> <td>56</td> <td>2nd 14:04</td> <td>Vanderbilt +1</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> South Carolina </td> <td>44</td> <td> </td> <td>Under 150.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Colorado St. </td> <td>33</td> <td>2nd 11:19</td> <td>Brigham Young -18</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Brigham Young </td> <td>57</td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Rutgers </td> <td>9</td> <td>1st 11:15</td> <td>South Florida -8.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> South Florida </td> <td>15</td> <td> </td> <td>Under 128.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Jacksonville St. </td> <td>14</td> <td>1st 12:57</td> <td>Jacksonville St. -2.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tenn-Martin </td> <td>8</td> <td> </td> <td>Under 148</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Elon University </td> <td>12</td> <td>1st 11:43</td> <td>Western Carolina -16</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Western Carolina </td> <td>10</td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> SE Missouri St. </td> <td>33</td> <td>1st 4:20</td> <td>Eastern Kentucky -18</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Eastern Kentucky </td> <td>39</td> <td> </td> <td>Under 137.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Southern Illinois </td> <td> - </td> <td>8:05 PM ET</td> <td>Southern Illinois -6</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evansville </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 135.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Tennessee Tech </td> <td> - </td> <td>8:30 PM ET</td> <td>Murray St. -18.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Murray St. </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td>Under 151</td> <td>500</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[rywill2006]

hey MJ - quick question about your unit size on these plays. So the regular ncaab home system plays are worth 100 while the leans are worth 500? Wouldnt it be the other way around? Please confirm when you get a chance. Thanks!

 

[Mistermj]

hey MJ - quick question about your unit size on these plays. So the regular ncaab home system plays are worth 100 while the leans are worth 500? Wouldnt it be the other way around? Please confirm when you get a chance. Thanks!

The unit size means nothing...it's just a number used to track the system record at Wagerline.

These are meant to be flat bet...only you can determine your wager amount.

I would keep a couple things in mind. Neither system has much history yet...adjust your risk accordingly.

The leans are off to a very good start...but are still a work in progress.

This is the second season for the NCAAB HOme System...19-4 stretching over two seasons appears very promising...but still...only 23 picks to go on.

Binomial distribution is a MF'er when it bites you...and sooner or later it will.