NBA Systems 2014/15

tripleh · Nov 11, 2014

This is not a RT query, but tried home favorites of more than 8 points off an away loss vs opponent coming off home win of 10 points or more starting with 2008 season. Here are the results:

HF and line < -8 and p:AL and op:HW and op:margin >= 10 and season >= 2008

SU:	28-2 (15.43, 93.3%)
ATS:	22-7-1 (4.92, 75.9%)	avg line: -10.5
O/U:	9-20-1 (-5.87, 31.0%)	avg total: 201.9

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	39.43	48.9	20.00	75.5	6.87	35.8	5.80	11.43	46.80	19.00	23.20	14.07	27.5	25.7	26.0	26.5	105.7
Opp	34.10	41.6	14.90	72.4	7.20	34.4	4.37	9.87	37.93	21.93	20.33	14.00	22.1	24.2	22.5	21.6	90.3

Play on Memphis and maybe under? Once again, this is not a RT query but was just messing around with some queries myself.

tripleh · Nov 11, 2014

If I take the previous query and move back season to 2003, the Memphis side holds up but not the Under

HF and line < -8 and p:AL and op:HW and op:margin >= 10 and season >= 2003

SU:	53-6 (13.20, 89.8%)
ATS:	40-18-1 (3.08, 69.0%)	avg line: -10.1
O/U:	25-33-1 (-2.26, 43.1%)	avg total: 196.2

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	38.61	48.3	19.85	74.2	6.49	35.4	5.88	11.54	45.27	20.14	23.29	13.76	26.0	25.3	26.2	25.8	103.6
Opp	34.15	42.2	15.98	72.0	6.07	33.9	4.51	10.59	38.76	22.29	19.34	14.08	22.4	23.2	22.4	22.0	90.4

rolltide · Nov 11, 2014

nice job, hhh. tighten it up by making the previous meeting NOT a blowout...only negative is this is 1-4 ATS this early into the season....

HF and line < -8 and p:AL and op:HW and op:margin > 9 and season >= 2003 and 22 > P:margin > -22

SU:	46-4 (14.12, 92.0%)
ATS:	36-13-1 (4.15, 73.5%)	avg line: -10.0
O/U:	22-27-1 (-1.45, 44.9%)	avg total: 196.2

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	39.04	48.4	19.94	74.7	6.42	35.4	5.86	11.64	45.54	20.38	23.50	13.40	26.5	25.1	26.4	26.2	104.4
Opp	34.12	42.1	15.96	71.1	6.12	33.8	4.54	10.52	39.06	22.46	19.14	13.96	22.2	23.2	22.3	22.2	90.3

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Nov 11, 2014	recap	Tue	2014	Grizzlies	Lakers	home		2&1	-9.5	196.5

Biz · Nov 11, 2014

Tuesday, NOV 11

Charlotte/Portland OVER 191.5 (61-19-2: 76.2%): OVER, Home Team, Low Total after a lot of FG attempts and 12+ made 3's

This total is dropping like a rock, anyone have any idea why?? Opened 197

Biz · Nov 11, 2014

Tide,
Stumbled upon this one, what do you think?

Play OVER: Home Dog, opponent lost previous as a Home Fav after leading at the half and 3rd quarter.

Noticed that previous to 2008 it isn't as good, but past 5 years really good. What are your thoughts on systems that are good for last 5 or so years, but further back aren't as good?? Do you ride the recent trend? Thanks Tide.

HD and op:HFL and p:M3 >= 1 and p:M2 >= 1 and season >= 2008

SU:	17-45 (-4.77, 27.4%)
ATS:	26-36-0 (-0.65, 41.9%)	avg line: 4.1
O/U:	43-19-0 (7.46, 69.4%)	avg total: 196.2

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	37.42	45.1	17.85	76.3	6.73	35.2	4.69	11.52	41.76	21.61	21.81	13.71	24.8	24.4	24.3	24.6	99.4
Opp	37.89	46.7	20.87	77.9	7.55	38.6	4.90	10.56	41.97	20.40	21.66	12.76	25.8	26.1	24.5	26.0	104.2

rolltide · Nov 11, 2014

yeah i always weigh recent above historical although prefer both.... but when you're talking 5+ years that's pretty decent

in that one you posted the M3 is solid at >0 but the M2 is best when a decent lead ... so if they lost a bigger HT lead and slowly dissolved it away (vs leading by 10+ end of q3) the overs really pop....but far less games

HD and op:HFL and p:M3 >= 1 and p:M2 >= 7 and season > 2007

SU:	10-26 (-4.14, 27.8%)
ATS:	15-21-0 (-0.07, 41.7%)	avg line: 4.1
O/U:	30-6-0 (11.42, 83.3%)	avg total: 196.4

Vallon · Nov 11, 2014

Biz said:
11/10:

Atlanta
Atlanta/NY Knicks OVER
Chicago

2-1

Current Record: 6-3

Just wondering, if you can keep the records of sides and totals separate. If it's too much trouble, then forget my request.

Biz · Nov 11, 2014

Vallon said:
Just wondering, if you can keep the records of sides and totals separate. If it's too much trouble, then forget my request.

I can do that, no problem.

Grindstone30 · Nov 11, 2014

Biz said:
Tuesday, NOV 11

Charlotte/Portland OVER 191.5 (61-19-2: 76.2%): OVER, Home Team, Low Total after a lot of FG attempts and 12+ made 3's

This total is dropping like a rock, anyone have any idea why?? Opened 197

Like the over myself GL guys thanks for the insights

Biz · Nov 12, 2014

Tuesday, NOV 11

Charlotte/Portland OVER 191.5

Current Record: 7-3
Sides: 2-1
Totals: 5-2

indiana · Nov 12, 2014

Biz...........thank you for the efforts here............indy

tripleh · Nov 12, 2014

NOV OPPOSE AND UNDER 4th in 5 games vs well rested opponent (PLAY ON DENVER AND UNDER)

SU:	10-26 (-7.56, 27.8%)
ATS:	14-22-0 (-2.81, 38.9%)	avg line: 4.8
O/U:	13-23-0 (-1.39, 36.1%)	avg total: 196.8

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	35.17	43.2	17.33	77.3	6.28	36.1	4.25	12.00	40.14	20.39	19.17	14.75	24.1	22.4	22.2	24.9	93.9
Opp	39.28	48.3	15.33	71.9	7.61	39.8	5.78	12.11	42.86	20.36	24.25	14.69	25.4	24.7	26.4	24.7	101.5

tripleh · Nov 12, 2014

PLAY ON midseason away dogs, bad team off noncover, vs winning team off cover with another home game coming (PLAY ON DETROIT, UTAH, OKC)

SU:	64-164 (-6.89, 28.1%)
ATS:	148-76-4 (2.52, 66.1%)	avg line: 9.4
O/U:	105-122-1 (-0.76, 46.3%)	avg total: 197.4

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	35.79	43.8	17.32	75.0	5.97	35.5	4.40	11.21	41.15	22.18	20.01	14.38	23.2	23.7	23.2	23.9	94.9
Opp	37.64	46.6	19.21	74.1	7.27	36.0	5.69	11.01	42.96	20.08	23.34	13.70	26.0	25.2	25.2	24.2	101.8

Biz · Nov 12, 2014

Wednesday, Nov 12

Denver
Portland/Denver UNDER
Detroit
Utah
Oklahoma City

Daheavy1 · Nov 12, 2014

Not official because no bolding...or official?

rolltide · Nov 12, 2014

some extra stuff for DENVER...

they are 33-8 SU & 28-12-1 ATS home rested vs opponent playing on b2b nights. slight under lean there 11-18 o/u L29

Blazers 11-37 SU, 19-29 ATS (21-27 o/u) away unrested after home game

rolltide · Nov 12, 2014

Denver also 18-2 SU L20 hosting unrested team in 4/5... (aka altitude)

Biz · Nov 12, 2014

Daheavy1 said:
Not official because no bolding...or official?

I forgot the BOLD

Biz · Nov 13, 2014

Wednesday, Nov 12

Denver
Portland/Denver UNDER
Detroit
Utah
Oklahoma City

3-2

Current Record: 10-5
Sides: 5-2
Totals: 5-3

Biz · Nov 13, 2014

Here are a couple systems I came up with, not part of Tide's list:

- Play AGAINST a Dog that lost their previous game, blowing a lead of 15+ points. (PLAY AGAINST Sacramento and Brooklyn, PLAY ON Golden St and Memphis)

D and p:L and p:biggest lead >= 15 and season >= 2010

SU:	55-134 (-6.59, 29.1%)
ATS:	73-111-5 (-0.77, 39.7%)	avg line: 5.8
O/U:	89-97-3 (0.77, 47.8%)	avg total: 197.7

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	36.49	44.2	16.68	74.7	6.30	34.0	4.50	11.30	41.46	20.75	20.61	13.78	23.5	24.3	23.9	23.7	96.0
Opp	38.37	47.2	17.93	76.0	7.89	37.7	5.37	10.58	42.58	19.87	23.19	13.23	25.9	25.8	25.2	25.2	102.6

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Rest	Line	Total

Nov 13, 2014	recap	Thu	2014	Kings	Grizzlies	away	1&1	6.5	192.0
Nov 13, 2014	recap	Thu	2014	Nets	Warriors	away	0&1	8.5	205.0

Same System With No Rest - Back To Back: (Play AGAINST Brooklyn, Play ON Golden St)

SU:10-38 (-9.23, 20.8%)
ATS:15-32-1 (-3.03, 31.9%) avg line: 6.2
O/U:22-26-0 (-1.45, 45.8%) avg total: 198.6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's another one AGAINST Brooklyn, Playing ON Golden St:

Play Against a Dog that blew a Double Digit Half Time lead, that also led after 3 quarters.

D and p:M2 >= 10 and p:M3 >= 1 and p:L and season >= 2008

SU:	24-93 (-8.15, 20.5%)
ATS:	40-73-4 (-1.74, 35.4%)	avg line: 6.4
O/U:	53-64-0 (-1.49, 45.3%)	avg total: 198.3

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	35.35	43.4	18.11	76.7	5.51	31.8	4.15	11.30	41.14	20.98	19.11	14.09	23.5	24.2	23.0	23.3	94.3
Opp	38.36	47.7	18.31	75.2	7.44	38.4	5.31	10.34	41.70	20.52	22.76	13.32	26.1	25.4	25.4	25.3	102.5

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot

Nov 13, 2014	recap	Thu	2014	Nets	Warriors	away		0&1	8.5	205.0

Without Rest: Brooklyn on a BTB

D and p:M2 >= 10 and p:M3 >= 1 and p:L and season >= 2008 and rest = 0

SU:	2-32 (-12.38, 5.9%)
ATS:	8-25-1 (-5.01, 24.2%)	avg line: 7.4
O/U:	15-19-0 (-3.99, 44.1%)	avg total: 199.7

NBA Systems 2014/15

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