NBA Systems 2014/15

Biz · Nov 13, 2014

AD and WP<45.9 and o:WP>=50 and ats streak<0 and o:ats streak>0 and REG and season>2003 and on:H and 7<game number<60

60: PLAY ON midseason away dogs, bad team off noncover, vs winning team off cover with another home game coming

SU:	65-166 (-6.76, 28.1%)
ATS:	151-76-4 (2.60, 66.5%)	avg line: 9.4
O/U:	107-123-1 (-0.65, 46.5%)	avg total: 197.3

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	35.85	43.8	17.28	75.0	6.00	35.4	4.42	11.16	41.09	22.13	20.06	14.33	23.3	23.7	23.3	23.8	95.0
Opp	37.65	46.7	19.16	74.1	7.27	36.0	5.68	11.00	42.95	20.06	23.37	13.68	26.0	25.3	25.2	24.2	101.7

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Rest	Line	Total


Nov 13, 2014	recap	Thu	2014	Seventysixers	Mavericks	away	3&1	14.0	207.5

PLAY ON Philadelphia

DT32 · Nov 13, 2014

OVERS with team off blowout loss as fav, now non-conference 58-28-1 - Warriors over 206

Biz · Nov 13, 2014

Thursday, Nov 13

Philadelphia: 151-76-4 (66.5%)
Memphis: 73-111-5 (39.7%) Play AGAINST Sacramento
Golden St: 73-111-5 (39.7%) / Subset BTB:15-32-1 (31.9%)......... 40-73-4 (35.4%)/Subset BTB 8-25-1 (24.2%) Records are AGAINST Brooklyn
Brooklyn/Golden St OVER: 58-28-1 (67.4%)

rolltide · Nov 13, 2014

one i saw posted on service thread. this IS NOT a system to consider for records but it's interesting for philly and over. basically it's a well rested away dog that failed to cover as an away dog last game and scored <=90. these teams have covered and gone over next game...but it's philly, so expect the worst

AD and line >= 5 and p

oints <= 90 and p:ats margin < 0 and p:AD and p:line >= 5 and rest >= 3

SU:	10-29 (-5.85, 25.6%)
ATS:	22-14-3 (2.79, 61.1%)	avg line: 8.6
O/U:	31-8-0 (8.06, 79.5%)	avg total: 190.6

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	36.59	45.6	17.59	73.4	5.64	36.9	3.95	11.18	39.10	21.92	21.18	15.31	24.0	24.1	23.2	24.7	96.4
Opp	38.21	47.4	19.36	78.2	6.49	39.0	5.08	11.62	41.92	20.82	23.67	14.64	28.0	23.3	25.6	24.7	102.3

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Nov 13, 2014	recap	Thu	2014	Seventysixers	Mavericks	away		3&1	13.5	210.5

DT32 · Nov 13, 2014

rolltide said:
one i saw posted on service thread. this IS NOT a system to consider for records but it's interesting for philly and over. basically it's a well rested away dog that failed to cover as an away dog last game and scored <=90. these teams have covered and gone over next game...but it's philly, so expect the worst

AD and line >= 5 and points <= 90 and p:ats margin < 0 and p:AD and p:line >= 5 and rest >= 3

SU: 10-29 (-5.85, 25.6%)
ATS: 22-14-3 (2.79, 61.1%) avg line: 8.6
O/U: 31-8-0 (8.06, 79.5%) avg total: 190.6

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FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 36.59 45.6 17.59 73.4 5.64 36.9 3.95 11.18 39.10 21.92 21.18 15.31 24.0 24.1 23.2 24.7 96.4
Opp 38.21 47.4 19.36 78.2 6.49 39.0 5.08 11.62 41.92 20.82 23.67 14.64 28.0 23.3 25.6 24.7 102.3

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Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Nov 13, 2014 recap Thu 2014 Seventysixers Mavericks away 3&1 13.5 210.5

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No Sixers! They will be at least 15 point dogs tomorrow and Monday, too (Houston and San Antonio). Maybe 20 against the Spurs

Biz · Nov 13, 2014

Philly went into Dallas last year and lost by 3 as a big dog.

Biz · Nov 13, 2014

Biz said:
Thursday, Nov 13

Philadelphia: 151-76-4 (66.5%)
Memphis: 73-111-5 (39.7%) Play AGAINST Sacramento
Golden St: 73-111-5 (39.7%) / Subset BTB:15-32-1 (31.9%)......... 40-73-4 (35.4%)/Subset BTB 8-25-1 (24.2%) Records are AGAINST Brooklyn
Brooklyn/Golden St OVER: 58-28-1 (67.4%)

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The only official plays from Tide's systems are Philadelphia and the BRK/GS Over.

The others are from systems I found using the site, but aren't on the list Tide gave us to research daily. Since this isn't my thread, ONLY selections taken from Tide's systems list will go on the official record.

Tide,
If you don't want me to add systems I've found to this discussion, please tell me and I will put them in another thread.

DT32 · Nov 13, 2014

Biz said:
Philly went into Dallas last year and lost by 3 as a big dog.

Philly had Hawes, Thad Young, Carter-Williams, and Evan Turner playing then. None of those players can really be considered above average, but they are all NBA players. Carter-Williams is playing in his first game tonight, so I guess that's something. Good luck if you put your money on this team, because you will need it.

tripleh · Nov 13, 2014

Biz said:
Here are a couple systems I came up with, not part of Tide's list:

- Play AGAINST a Dog that lost their previous game, blowing a lead of 15+ points. (PLAY AGAINST Sacramento and Brooklyn, PLAY ON Golden St and Memphis)

D and p:L and p:biggest lead >= 15 and season >= 2010

SU: 55-134 (-6.59, 29.1%)
ATS: 73-111-5 (-0.77, 39.7%) avg line: 5.8
O/U: 89-97-3 (0.77, 47.8%) avg total: 197.7

<tbody>
</tbody>

FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 36.49 44.2 16.68 74.7 6.30 34.0 4.50 11.30 41.46 20.75 20.61 13.78 23.5 24.3 23.9 23.7 96.0
Opp 38.37 47.2 17.93 76.0 7.89 37.7 5.37 10.58 42.58 19.87 23.19 13.23 25.9 25.8 25.2 25.2 102.6

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</tbody>

Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Nov 13, 2014 recap Thu 2014 Kings Grizzlies away 1&1 6.5 192.0
Nov 13, 2014 recap Thu 2014 Nets Warriors away 0&1 8.5 205.0

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Biz, I took this and then "tightened" it to only include dogs of more than 5 points and got this:
D and p:L and p:biggest lead >= 15 and season >= 2010 and line>5

SU:	16-79 (-11.12, 16.8%)
ATS:	28-65-2 (-2.64, 30.1%)	avg line: 8.5
O/U:	44-49-2 (-0.17, 47.3%)	avg total: 198.0

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	35.84	43.4	15.69	72.7	6.00	34.4	4.14	11.33	40.57	20.43	19.89	14.21	23.1	23.2	23.8	23.1	93.4
Opp	39.17	48.4	18.04	76.5	8.12	38.2	5.78	10.43	42.69	19.57	24.22	13.18	26.7	26.1	25.8	25.7	104.5

That works out to 70% over last 95 games FWIW

rolltide · Nov 13, 2014

Biz said:
The only official plays from Tide's systems are Philadelphia and the BRK/GS Over.

The others are from systems I found using the site, but aren't on the list Tide gave us to research daily. Since this isn't my thread, ONLY selections taken from Tide's systems list will go on the official record.

Tide,
If you don't want me to add systems I've found to this discussion, please tell me and I will put them in another thread.

don't mind at all. you guys are putting in the work. I just appreciate you posting the stuff I don't have time to run...

on that Philly query i have an updated version for only 1H season that i really love. been playing this for years (though really tough to pull any trigger on 76ers), thought i had it listed before?

this is the one that should be running....

op:FW and op:ats margin >= 0 and D and p

L and p:ats margin < -.5 and line >= 10.5 and game number < 49 and date > 20071120

SU:	13-79 (-7.95, 14.1%)
ATS:	73-19-0 (4.28, 79.3%)	avg line: 12.2
O/U:	48-43-1 (0.60, 52.7%)	avg total: 197.7

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	36.15	43.8	16.35	75.4	6.52	35.6	3.99	11.59	40.86	22.42	19.82	14.10	23.0	24.2	23.2	24.5	95.2
Opp	37.62	47.4	20.70	74.9	7.18	36.1	5.73	10.84	42.79	19.32	23.12	13.74	26.0	26.3	25.5	25.0	103.1

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Nov 13, 2014	recap	Thu	2014	Seventysixers	Mavericks	away		3&1	13.5	210.5

Biz · Nov 13, 2014

Geezus Philly is BAD.

Biz · Nov 14, 2014

Thursday, Nov 13

Philadelphia:
Brooklyn/Golden St OVER: Opening line was 206 so graded as a push, although many people lost after it immediately went up.

Current Record: 10-6
Sides: 5-3
Totals: 5-3

DT32 · Nov 14, 2014

Friday, November 14th

Non- Conference that lost a DD lead last game OVER (113-58-4) – Nuggets Over 196.5
Subset of Above. Team off a blowout loss as a fav, now non-conference OVER (58-29-1) – Nuggets Over 196.5
Oppose Home team after a win as a dog when they were Outrebounded (34-69-4) – Bucks +2.5
Losing team after losses in 5/7, away dog OVER (30-14) – Twolves Over 206

Biz · Nov 14, 2014

Denver got blown out in last. Looking at the SDQL language for this system, I think it should read.........lost by DD as a fav

p:LF and not C and p:margin < -9 and playoffs = 0 and date > 20081229 and total < 202

Last a fav, Non Conf, margin < -9 (meaning a loss by 10 or more), reg season, total of less than 202

BTW, brutal loss on Dubs and the Over last night.

rolltide · Nov 14, 2014

whoever has this one? sixers are back in action

op:FW and op:ats margin >= 0 and D and p

L and p:ats margin < -.5 and line >= 10.5 and game number < 49 and date > 20071120

SU:	13-80 (-8.43, 14.0%)
ATS:	73-20-0 (3.82, 78.5%)	avg line: 12.2
O/U:	48-44-1 (0.44, 52.2%)	avg total: 197.8

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	36.01	43.6	16.35	75.0	6.53	35.4	3.99	11.66	40.91	22.44	19.70	14.24	22.8	24.1	23.2	24.4	94.9
Opp	37.66	47.5	20.80	75.0	7.23	36.1	5.72	10.82	42.88	19.38	23.23	13.75	26.1	26.4	25.5	25.0	103.3

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Nov 14, 2014	recap	Fri	2014	Seventysixers	Rockets	away		0&1	17.0	205.5

meet the next level of it as well...

op:FW and op:ats margin >= 0 and D and p

L and p:ats margin < -.5 and pp

L and pp:ats margin < -.5 and line >= 10.5 and game number < 49 and date > 20071120

SU:	3-37 (-7.50, 7.5%)
ATS:	33-7-0 (4.72, 82.5%)	avg line: 12.2
O/U:	22-18-0 (1.16, 55.0%)	avg total: 195.3

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	35.67	43.7	16.60	75.5	6.55	35.2	3.95	11.25	41.35	22.95	20.02	14.00	23.0	24.5	23.6	23.2	94.5
Opp	36.67	46.7	20.95	75.3	7.70	36.5	5.17	10.30	42.20	19.35	22.43	13.18	24.9	25.6	26.2	24.9	102.0

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Nov 14, 2014	recap	Fri	2014	Seventysixers	Rockets	away		0&1	17.0	205.5

Biz · Nov 14, 2014

To differentiate between a Tide system and a Biz system: Tide system has a number in front, my systems have "Biz" in front of them. I will only be tracking Tide systems, its his thread.

38: PLAY ON mediocre teams away on a winning streak in conference game:(80-40-1: 68.8%)

Milwaukee, Cleveland

BIZ: FADE: Dog, Lost Previous, Biggest Lead >= 15 Pts: (58-93-3: 38.4%)
Cleveland ( FADE Boston)

29 OPPOSE and OVER home team after losing big HT lead: ATS (42-70-3: 37.5%), O/U (76-37-2: 67.3%)
Cleveland (FADE Boston), OVER

I have 3 systems FADING Charlotte:
FADE: Dog, Last Blown DD Half Time Lead and 3Q Lead: (41-73-4: 36%)
FADE: Lost Previous, Biggest Lead >= 15 Pts: (58-93-3: 38.4%)
FADE: Road Team, Blown Half Time Leads Last 2 Games: (39-55-3: 41.5%)

Same Game have a FADE Phoenix, with an UNDER.

FADE and UNDER: Home Team, Won Last 2 After Trailing by 5+ at Half Time: (12-25: 32.4%), O/U (12-23-2: 34.3%) since 2008

RECAP:
Milwaukee (Tide)
Cleveland (Tide/Biz) and OVER (Tide)
Charlotte/Phoenix UNDER (side cancels out) (Biz)

I was cutting and pasting, sorry for the format.

Biz · Nov 14, 2014

Philadelphia is on my no play list. I just can't do it, I played them last night.

rolltide · Nov 14, 2014

getting a bit confused now. If i read everything right we have (with current line):

Rolltide:
Philadelphia +17 (1h season huge dog off non-cover vs fav off cover) - ugly as it is
Milwaukee +2.5 (2 diff systems - oppose home team off dog win where they were out-rebounded & play on mediocre team on winning streak in a conference game)
Cleveland -5 (2 diff systems - play on mediocre team on winning streak in conference & oppose home team that lost a big HT lead last game)
Celtics over 210 (play OVER with home team that lost a big HT lead last game)
Nuggets over 196 (OVER non-conf game team off DD fav loss with low total)
Twolves over 205.5 (OVER bad team in 5/7 situation after loss, away dog)

Biz:
Cleveland -5 (oppose dog that lost a 15+ lead last game)
Suns under 200.5 (UNDER home team off b2b comeback wins)

Biz · Nov 14, 2014

Tide,
I won't be so sloppy next time, my apologies.

That Minny OVER, look at the ATS. Can we add a play AGAINST on that system too??

rolltide · Nov 14, 2014

Biz said:
Tide,
I won't be so sloppy next time, my apologies.

That Minny OVER, look at the ATS. Can we add a play AGAINST on that system too??

i was just looking that the details of that and as long as WP is 26-40 the side is just as solid as total (both 26-13)...you can pull the o:WP back a bit and becomes 37-18 ATS play against so pretty steady with an extra 16 games... so yeah, looks solid for side. if home team was involved in either loss or win by 8+ last game the side jumps to a 22-5 play against (20 overs) ... not active tonight

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