NBA 2008-09, Week 3 thread...

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Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Thanx guys...

Quick random thought:

Of course, yesterday, the Raptors jumped out at me at -5 as being way too low a line coming off 2 losses against Miami, a team that Spreadbeater has said over and and over again has no inside game...Ok, well, Toronto clearly does...That line jumped out at me the same way my Clips -3 did the day before against GS, but the Clips got buried and I took a loss there...

And speaking of the Clips, I want somebody to stop me right now...Just stop me...Get a gun, point it at me and beg me not to bet the Clippers tonight...

Yes, I like the f*cking Clippers again...WTF is a matter with me?...

This has prompted me to do something I haven't done in over 15 years and that is, to create a chart and puts a row for every NBA team on it, and then create a Sides column and a Totals column and track my ATS record for EVERY team, sides and totals...It's a good tool I haven't used in quite a while now...It shows you what teams you are seeing well, and which ones you are not...

But also, let's look at the Clippers blowout loss to GS (121-103) on SAT...

Rookie Anthony Morrow (for GS), in just his 4th NBA game, scored 37 points (15-for-20 from the field, 4-for-5 from trey land, 3-3 on FTs) and grabbed an impressive 11 boards (being a 6-5 guard)...He played 41+ minutes...Nellie must be creaming in his pants after that game...Another astounding athlete that fits perfectly in his system...

Morrow had only played 3 games in his career before that game, totalling 40 minutes, and had 23 total points and 5 boards in thos 40 minutes on 9-for-19 shooting from the field, 3-for-7 from trey land and 2-2 on FTs...All off the bench, while SAT was his first start...

So was this an anomaly?...A one-time Jordan-esque performance that burned the Clippers?...

Should I just take the damn Clips here?...SA is back-to-back for the 2nd time since losing Parker and they lost to MILW at MILW the last occurrence...

The Clips will have the better team, by far, on the floor tonight, on paper...But these games aren't played on paper, they're played on those HD TV sets...

I better hurry though if I am going to do this, as I am losing value quickly...I was going to bet it last night at -2, but wanted to sleep on it, and now it's at 2.5, on the verge of going to 3...I think the Clips win this by at least 8, and in fact, I wonder to myself if this is a coming-out party for the Clips?...We'll see...

I may have to bet this one...
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
Messages
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=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
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Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 13-12, +$55
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Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 72-71-2
#1 picks: 12-8

Totals: 80-65
#1 picks: 6-14
=====================================

Day 21:

Random thoughts already, posted...Thout I was taking the day off, but upon further review, I am taking the Clips...Sides finally broke out with a 5-1 day yesterday...Was able to get -106 juice at MatchBook as this line rises...Picks will be posted in an hour or so as I have an errand to get to now...

BET:

Level 2 -- Los Angeles Clippers -2.5, laying $795 to win $750 --
Talked about this one already...More I think about it, the more I love this play...First Level 2 bet of the year...2nd back-end of a back-to-back for SA since the Parker injury and they lost at MILW in this spot before...The Clips CLEARLY have the better team on the floor tonight...It is also a 2nd example (hopefully) of the rule where "brewers7 was on a team one game too early"...I bet the Clips last week and lost the bet, then decided to pass on them next time out in a good spot because I was pissed at taking them the time before, and of course, the Clips won easily...I won't let my growing bias against betting this team stop me a 2nd time as this is another good spot for the Clips...Just a matter of time before this talent comes together and puts forth a big game...Tonight may the night...They could win this by 15 or 20...I just hope they win by 3...

First Level 2 bet of the season...This means that at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll and at Level 2, I am betting to win 5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

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Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
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Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
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Last edited:

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
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Thanx Salty...

For the record:

Sides:

#1 LAC -2.5
#2 OKC +8.5
#3 Phoe +1

Totals:

#1 LAC un 175.5
#2 OKC un 183.5
#3 Phoe un 196
 

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Brewers I teased all your picks along with NFL tonight. 8 team teaser risking $100 to win $1,000

NFL
Cleveland +12.5 and U 47
NBA
OK City +13.5 and U 189
Phoenix +6 and U 201.5
Clippers +2.5 and U 180.5
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
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GL sir...

I track 10-point teasers in my NBA database (4-teamers, but they're usually -120 juice) but I don't play them any more as I personally think the NBA is too volatile to bet teasers with, so I cannot recommend playing them...

What I would do is look at all of my losing picks and see if they fall within 5 points of the Vegas number...Get a percentage...Then decide on whether it's worth the chance, because with a 5-point teaser, you pretty much just about have to win every game with the regular spread to hit those and that's tough...

However, I hope you hit tonight...GL...

:103631605
 

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Brewers I teased all your picks along with NFL tonight. 8 team teaser risking $100 to win $1,000

NFL
Cleveland +12.5 and U 47
NBA
OK City +13.5 and U 189
Phoenix +6 and U 201.5
Clippers +2.5 and U 180.5

browns under got ya:ohno:
 

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yeah among others. Oh well. I just bet them for fun. I bet Cleveland +5.5 to win $100as well as the teaser so I came out even. Was worth a shot
 

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Brew...

you'll start soon............ just do your thing... thank you again

indy
 

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