This is why I hate betting Unders in the NBA...
The Hou/SA game was a whisker away from OT, which would have ruined a stone Under, and then, the Lakers were down 15 with less than 2 minutes left and I felt like it would be an Under at that point, because I am 99.99% sure that no team in NBA history has ever come back from a 15-point deficit with less than 2 minutes left, yet the Lakers have their starters out there fouling the entire last 2 minutes...
Ok, then...Tomorrow is another day, as they say...
Onwards and hopefully upwards...
Quick random thoughts:
GS at the Clips, and the Clips are 3-point chalk...I'd like to think I know something about the NBA, so I have to ask myself why is this line only 3 points?...Why?...I don't believe in power ratings, never in my life have even looked at them, I don't make my own lines, but I do look at a game and have a number in my head the split-second before noticing the actual line...3 was not the number that popped into my brain the micro-second before my brain digested what my eyes saw on the computer screen, and that was a -3 next to the Clips...Again, why?...What the hell has GS proven thus far?...Yeah, I realize the Clips are brutal thus far (1-7 overall and 1-5 at Home SU & ATS for both), but Thomas came back last game and they should be able to put this together any moment...You're going to tell me Baron Davis won't be motivated as all hell to play against his former team?...Yeah, GS has beaten them 3 straight and 4-of-5 SU, but the Clips stunk last year and GS was good the past 2 seasons...I don't get it...My sides have stunk the last 4 days, but what am I missing here?...May have to bet that side just because I feel Vegas has unknowingly insulted me here, we'll see, but I almost certainly will bet the 1Q Over...GS has gone Over in the 1Q all 5 Home games, and are 2-2 to the Over in the 1Q, but their last 2 have gone Over...7-2 to the Over this season...And h2h here, the last 7 have gone Over in the 1Q, with 6 of them hitting 60 and the other 54, which will ALL be Over the 1Q total when released SAT morning (I estimate it at 51.5 or 52)...Also 7 of the last 8 and 6 straight games at Staples between these 2 teams have gone Over in the 1Q, with all 7 hitting at least 54 (6 of those also hit 60+)...
4 games on SAT have the 4-games-played-in-5-days trend, my favorite, which I have personally tracked for more than 12 years...But like any trend, you need to also look and see if the situational spot also matches up with what the "automatic play" is...Whenever you have a game where one of the teams is playing their 4th game in 5 nights, you always take the away team...That is the "automatic" pick, if you decide to just ignore the situational spot(s), which I do not do...There are 3 types of 4-of-5 plays...
1 -- the Away team is playing their 4th-in-5 nights, Home team is not
2 -- the Home team is playing their 4th-in-5 nights, Away team is not
3 -- Both teams are playing their 4th-in-5 nights
Most years, #3 is the strongest 4th-in-5 play, then #2, then #1...But certainly NOT every year...#3 though, is generally very strong...I do remember either #1 or #2 had a bad season a few seasons ago, but #2 is usually the stronger of those two...
Anyway, according to the "automatic" plays, you would:
Fade ATL
Fade Philly
Take Utah
Fade Milwaukee
But looking at those 4 games, had ATL beat NJ Friday night, I definitely would have taken NJ on SAT...But with the NJ win, I generally go the other way on the back-end of a home-and-home series, so this is probably a stay-away game for me...
At first blush, I agree with the Fade Philly after they expended all that energy last night, erasing a 25-point deficit after 1Q to come back and win...Now they have to travel further than OKC, who lost at NY last night...
I cannot take Utah here...They are too banged up and CLE is hot...Stay-away for me...
I can surely and probably will fade Milwaukee here...Depends on the line and I am sure it will be about 7.5, which would make it tough...But Boston off a loss have been incredible since the Big 3 got together last season...BOS is 12-5 ATS following a loss since KG & Allen came to town...MILW coming off an OT-win last night at MEMP...Celts the play...
Oh, and off-topic, a friend of mine who is very good at NCAAF likes Baylor -9 and Miss St. +22 SAT in college foots...FWIW...
GS at the Clips, and the Clips are 3-point chalk...I'd like to think I know something about the NBA, so I have to ask myself why is this line only 3 points?...Why?...I don't believe in power ratings, never in my life have even looked at them, I don't make my own lines, but I do look at a game and have a number in my head the split-second before noticing the actual line...3 was not the number that popped into my brain the micro-second before my brain digested what my eyes saw on the computer screen, and that was a -3 next to the Clips...Again, why?...What the hell has GS proven thus far?...Yeah, I realize the Clips are brutal thus far (1-7 overall and 1-5 at Home SU & ATS for both), but Thomas came back last game and they should be able to put this together any moment...You're going to tell me Baron Davis won't be motivated as all hell to play against his former team?...Yeah, GS has beaten them 3 straight and 4-of-5 SU, but the Clips stunk last year and GS was good the past 2 seasons...I don't get it...My sides have stunk the last 4 days, but what am I missing here?...May have to bet that side just because I feel Vegas has unknowingly insulted me here, we'll see, but I almost certainly will bet the 1Q Over...GS has gone Over in the 1Q all 5 Home games, and are 2-2 to the Over in the 1Q, but their last 2 have gone Over...7-2 to the Over this season...And h2h here, the last 7 have gone Over in the 1Q, with 6 of them hitting 60 and the other 54, which will ALL be Over the 1Q total when released SAT morning (I estimate it at 51.5 or 52)...Also 7 of the last 8 and 6 straight games at Staples between these 2 teams have gone Over in the 1Q, with all 7 hitting at least 54 (6 of those also hit 60+)...
4 games on SAT have the 4-games-played-in-5-days trend, my favorite, which I have personally tracked for more than 12 years...But like any trend, you need to also look and see if the situational spot also matches up with what the "automatic play" is...Whenever you have a game where one of the teams is playing their 4th game in 5 nights, you always take the away team...That is the "automatic" pick, if you decide to just ignore the situational spot(s), which I do not do...There are 3 types of 4-of-5 plays...
1 -- the Away team is playing their 4th-in-5 nights, Home team is not
2 -- the Home team is playing their 4th-in-5 nights, Away team is not
3 -- Both teams are playing their 4th-in-5 nights
Most years, #3 is the strongest 4th-in-5 play, then #2, then #1...But certainly NOT every year...#3 though, is generally very strong...I do remember either #1 or #2 had a bad season a few seasons ago, but #2 is usually the stronger of those two...
Anyway, according to the "automatic" plays, you would:
Fade ATL
Fade Philly
Take Utah
Fade Milwaukee
But looking at those 4 games, had ATL beat NJ Friday night, I definitely would have taken NJ on SAT...But with the NJ win, I generally go the other way on the back-end of a home-and-home series, so this is probably a stay-away game for me...
At first blush, I agree with the Fade Philly after they expended all that energy last night, erasing a 25-point deficit after 1Q to come back and win...Now they have to travel further than OKC, who lost at NY last night...
I cannot take Utah here...They are too banged up and CLE is hot...Stay-away for me...
I can surely and probably will fade Milwaukee here...Depends on the line and I am sure it will be about 7.5, which would make it tough...But Boston off a loss have been incredible since the Big 3 got together last season...BOS is 12-5 ATS following a loss since KG & Allen came to town...MILW coming off an OT-win last night at MEMP...Celts the play...
Oh, and off-topic, a friend of mine who is very good at NCAAF likes Baylor -9 and Miss St. +22 SAT in college foots...FWIW...
BETS:
Level 1 -- Golden State/L.A. Clippers over 51.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- Already talked about this one...GS has gone Over in the 1Q all 5 Home games, and are 2-2 to the Over in the 1Q, but their last 2 have gone Over...7-2 to the Over this season...And h2h here, the last 7 have gone Over in the 1Q, with 6 of them hitting 60 and the other 54, which are ALL be Over the 1Q total for today...Also 7 of the last 8 and 6 straight games at Staples between these 2 teams have gone Over in the 1Q, with all 7 hitting at least 54 (6 of those also hit 60+)...
Level 1 -- Los Angeles Clippers -2.5, laying $250 to win $260 -- Just a gut-shot play here...Line looks off to me, but what do I know...Came down 1/2 a point even after opening at 3...Clips are horrible right now, but they have good players...It is just a matter of them coming together with this talent and they have everyone back now...GS is not as good, nowhere as good as last season...I mean, Harrington, Baron Davis and Ellis were all starters last year and none of them are as of now, and in fact, Baron Davis will be playing against GS tonight and he is the type of player who can will a team to win sometimes and today may be a day for him to do just that...
I will have all picks coming (running late with meetings today) and probably 2 more bets (stepping out a bit today)...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
<!-- / message -->
Level 1 -- Golden State/L.A. Clippers over 51.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- Already talked about this one...GS has gone Over in the 1Q all 5 Home games, and are 2-2 to the Over in the 1Q, but their last 2 have gone Over...7-2 to the Over this season...And h2h here, the last 7 have gone Over in the 1Q, with 6 of them hitting 60 and the other 54, which are ALL be Over the 1Q total for today...Also 7 of the last 8 and 6 straight games at Staples between these 2 teams have gone Over in the 1Q, with all 7 hitting at least 54 (6 of those also hit 60+)...
Level 1 -- Los Angeles Clippers -2.5, laying $250 to win $260 -- Just a gut-shot play here...Line looks off to me, but what do I know...Came down 1/2 a point even after opening at 3...Clips are horrible right now, but they have good players...It is just a matter of them coming together with this talent and they have everyone back now...GS is not as good, nowhere as good as last season...I mean, Harrington, Baron Davis and Ellis were all starters last year and none of them are as of now, and in fact, Baron Davis will be playing against GS tonight and he is the type of player who can will a team to win sometimes and today may be a day for him to do just that...
I will have all picks coming (running late with meetings today) and probably 2 more bets (stepping out a bit today)...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
<!-- / message -->
Oh just Stop It.
Stop It Right Now before you even for a moment convince yourself the above statement has merit.
You and I both know that betting Unders is more often the way to get value as compared to Overs (by a modest margin for sure, but still a true axiom).
And therefore we LOVE betting Unders when we do it right because 85% of our fellow bettors HATE to bet Unders in the NBA and that pushes Totals in our favor.
And when it hits those last three minutes and we're just 14 pts Under and then each team misses back to back possessions and no one is fouling and suddenly it's 48 seconds and still 12 points.
Yeah buddy. The Over guy is screaming, "SHOOT! SHOOT! WHY CAN"T YOU MAKE A FUCKING SHOT????" and we're just grinning.
And btw, I also know that you Love betting Dogs and even betting Faves or Overs if the spot is right.
You Love It All....or else you wouldn't be here
Sincerely
Equally Hooked Capping Dweeb
Yeah, you're right, of course...
Unders are generally the best plays, but NOT with Detroit this year...Different team, different make-up...I'll keep taking Unders, but I'll look for different teams to bet...
Damn, how do you know me this well?...
I had some cheese, so I just needed to whine last night, that's all...
Unders are generally the best plays, but NOT with Detroit this year...Different team, different make-up...I'll keep taking Unders, but I'll look for different teams to bet...
Damn, how do you know me this well?...
I had some cheese, so I just needed to whine last night, that's all...
=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 10-9, +$57.50
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 64-65-2
#1 picks: 11-7
Totals: 73-58
#1 picks: 4-14
=====================================
Day 19:
Random thoughts already posted...I like my top 3 sides a bit today, 1 in action already and the Clips have pretty much choked this one away...I hate admitting Vegas knows more than I do...Doesn't mean i cannot beat them, though, in the NBA, year after year...My top 3 sides have not had a 3-0 day since Day 5 and have been 2-1 just twice in the last 10 opportunities...It means I am due, but being "due" doesn't guarantee a blessed thing...
My profit margin would be bigger had I used reduced juice from the get-go this season, and I will have a write-up some time very soon to show how much bigger your profit margin is wih reduced or no or positive juice, even giving up 1/2 a point or a point...
Sorry for lateness today, but we had presentations and meetings today and anyway, if I go 1-3, then that'll be a good thing for everyone who missed...
Sides:
#1 OKC +10.5
#2 Bos -9
#3 LAC -2.5
#4 NJ +10
#5 Port -1
#6 Hou -2
#7 Utah +10.5
#8 Ind +6
Totals:
#1 LAC ov 202
#2 Port ov 193
#3 Utah ov 191
#4 Bos un 182.5
#5 NJ ov 195.5
#6 Hou un 181
#7 OKC un 189
#8 Ind un 202.5
BET:
Level 1 -- Oklahoma City Thunder +10, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- I lost some value here by being in meetings all day today (oh how I miss doing this full-time -- maybe again some time soon) so I have to take the 10 points and hope they don't lose by 11 or 12, which are lines i could have had this morning...Philly has owne this recent h2h match-up, but they are 1-2 SU & ATS in back-enders and OKC is 2-0 ATS in back-enders...Philly came from behind to erase a 25-point deficit after the 1Q last night to win at Indy, and then had to travel further than OKC did from NY to get to Philly...I'll take the points here, hoping this isn't a break-out game where Philly kills them by 20+...
Level 1 -- Boston Celtics -9, laying $250 to win $267.50 -- Already mentioned how BOS is 12-5 ATS after losses since Garnett & Allen joined the team last season...up the boards...MILW off an OT-win last night...MILW got Under the number at BOS 8 days ago, but if Boston feels like playing tonight, they'll win by 15+, without breaking too much of a sweat...Now, will they feel like playing?...After a loss, I'll take a shot and say, yes...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 10-9, +$57.50
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 64-65-2
#1 picks: 11-7
Totals: 73-58
#1 picks: 4-14
=====================================
Day 19:
Random thoughts already posted...I like my top 3 sides a bit today, 1 in action already and the Clips have pretty much choked this one away...I hate admitting Vegas knows more than I do...Doesn't mean i cannot beat them, though, in the NBA, year after year...My top 3 sides have not had a 3-0 day since Day 5 and have been 2-1 just twice in the last 10 opportunities...It means I am due, but being "due" doesn't guarantee a blessed thing...
My profit margin would be bigger had I used reduced juice from the get-go this season, and I will have a write-up some time very soon to show how much bigger your profit margin is wih reduced or no or positive juice, even giving up 1/2 a point or a point...
Sorry for lateness today, but we had presentations and meetings today and anyway, if I go 1-3, then that'll be a good thing for everyone who missed...
Sides:
#1 OKC +10.5
#2 Bos -9
#3 LAC -2.5
#4 NJ +10
#5 Port -1
#6 Hou -2
#7 Utah +10.5
#8 Ind +6
Totals:
#1 LAC ov 202
#2 Port ov 193
#3 Utah ov 191
#4 Bos un 182.5
#5 NJ ov 195.5
#6 Hou un 181
#7 OKC un 189
#8 Ind un 202.5
BET:
Level 1 -- Oklahoma City Thunder +10, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- I lost some value here by being in meetings all day today (oh how I miss doing this full-time -- maybe again some time soon) so I have to take the 10 points and hope they don't lose by 11 or 12, which are lines i could have had this morning...Philly has owne this recent h2h match-up, but they are 1-2 SU & ATS in back-enders and OKC is 2-0 ATS in back-enders...Philly came from behind to erase a 25-point deficit after the 1Q last night to win at Indy, and then had to travel further than OKC did from NY to get to Philly...I'll take the points here, hoping this isn't a break-out game where Philly kills them by 20+...
Level 1 -- Boston Celtics -9, laying $250 to win $267.50 -- Already mentioned how BOS is 12-5 ATS after losses since Garnett & Allen joined the team last season...up the boards...MILW off an OT-win last night...MILW got Under the number at BOS 8 days ago, but if Boston feels like playing tonight, they'll win by 15+, without breaking too much of a sweat...Now, will they feel like playing?...After a loss, I'll take a shot and say, yes...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================
BREW7:
BET:
Level 1 -- Oklahoma City Thunder +10, laying $252.50 to win $250 -
===
SH: Philly playing at HOME in second of back2back was 1-9 ATS when graded at -10
Previous season just three such chances and they were 1-2
Both covers of the -10 out of those combined 13 tries were against NYK.
BET:
Level 1 -- Oklahoma City Thunder +10, laying $252.50 to win $250 -
===
SH: Philly playing at HOME in second of back2back was 1-9 ATS when graded at -10
Previous season just three such chances and they were 1-2
Both covers of the -10 out of those combined 13 tries were against NYK.
Usually...NBA overs tend to hit around 51-53% on the season as a whole? Not positive but it seems that is my perception. Not that unders still can't provide good value...as you stated.
But anyway...so far this year...you have a little wind at your back with the unders as well.
FWIW...which is probably nothing.
But this hardworking Brewers guy gets a bump out of it.
Damn Brewers...you live this shit huh? :toast:
Over vs. Under Trends
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="34%">Category</TD><TD width="16%">Overs</TD><TD width="16%">Percent</TD><TD width="16%">Unders</TD><TD>Percent</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Overtime Games</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>87.50%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>12.50%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Non-Overtime Games</TD><TD>56</TD><TD>45.16%</TD><TD>68</TD><TD>54.84%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>All Games</TD><TD>63</TD><TD>47.73%</TD><TD>69</TD><TD>52.27%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Yeah, I love this stuff, it's a passion, but I'd love it a lot more if I got some wins...OKC will be a loss as it looks like this should have been a day with one play, but I'll take my first 2H bet of the season and risk a really bad night:
BET:
Level 1 -- Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I really hate that juice, but Matchbook selection not good for 2H lines...CLE is, I believe 3-0 ATS in the 2H when trailing at the half at Home (I took a really quick look, but I like them anyway because I believe there is some value here as they only need to win this game by 3 to cover this 2H line...Just look at their 2H's this season at Home when trailing and you'll see why I took them, not to mention that they are being out-shot 52% to 42% in the 1H, which will hopefully reverse in the 2H...
GL...
BET:
Level 1 -- Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I really hate that juice, but Matchbook selection not good for 2H lines...CLE is, I believe 3-0 ATS in the 2H when trailing at the half at Home (I took a really quick look, but I like them anyway because I believe there is some value here as they only need to win this game by 3 to cover this 2H line...Just look at their 2H's this season at Home when trailing and you'll see why I took them, not to mention that they are being out-shot 52% to 42% in the 1H, which will hopefully reverse in the 2H...
GL...
=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 12-12, -$195
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 67-70-2
#1 picks: 11-8
Totals: 78-61
#1 picks: 5-14
=====================================
Day 20:
Running late today...Picks will be posted next, but TOR was my #1 side and the under was my #3 total...Will post all picks shortly...One bet only unless a good 2H opportunity presents itself...Sides are horrible right now, will have to wait for a good spot before betting sides again (although my top 3 will probably go 3-0 today with no bets after 0-3 last night betting all 3)...
Had I bet reduced/positive juice from Day 1, I would actually be even or have a tiny profit at this moment with my 12-12 start, which is a very important point that I will talk about either tonight or tomorrow...I have chopped off over $100 or over 33% of my juice losses away though, by starting at MatchBook when i did...More later on that topic...
BET:
Level 1 -- Dallas/New York over 214.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- Line really hasn't moved at all...Knicks way Over 2 in a row and Dallas has gone Over 4 of 5 and maybe the up-tempo stuff Rick Carlisle had talked about coming into the season is kicking in now (after going 3-of-4 Under to start the season), kind of the same way CLE had toyed with the idea of being more up-tempo (and also started 3-of-4 Under before going 6 straight Over)...We know D'Antoni's Knicks are nothing less than up-tempo, so hopefully the Mavs get sucked in and we have a shoot-out...I thought about betting the 1Q, 1H and Game totals all Over, but if they throw up bricks every quarter, that would be just what I need, an 0-3 day on one game...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 12-12, -$195
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 67-70-2
#1 picks: 11-8
Totals: 78-61
#1 picks: 5-14
=====================================
Day 20:
Running late today...Picks will be posted next, but TOR was my #1 side and the under was my #3 total...Will post all picks shortly...One bet only unless a good 2H opportunity presents itself...Sides are horrible right now, will have to wait for a good spot before betting sides again (although my top 3 will probably go 3-0 today with no bets after 0-3 last night betting all 3)...
Had I bet reduced/positive juice from Day 1, I would actually be even or have a tiny profit at this moment with my 12-12 start, which is a very important point that I will talk about either tonight or tomorrow...I have chopped off over $100 or over 33% of my juice losses away though, by starting at MatchBook when i did...More later on that topic...
BET:
Level 1 -- Dallas/New York over 214.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- Line really hasn't moved at all...Knicks way Over 2 in a row and Dallas has gone Over 4 of 5 and maybe the up-tempo stuff Rick Carlisle had talked about coming into the season is kicking in now (after going 3-of-4 Under to start the season), kind of the same way CLE had toyed with the idea of being more up-tempo (and also started 3-of-4 Under before going 6 straight Over)...We know D'Antoni's Knicks are nothing less than up-tempo, so hopefully the Mavs get sucked in and we have a shoot-out...I thought about betting the 1Q, 1H and Game totals all Over, but if they throw up bricks every quarter, that would be just what I need, an 0-3 day on one game...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================
