Thanx...
Sides:
#1 Phi -4.5
#2 Min +6
#3 NY +4.5
#4 Chi -4
#5 Dal -6
#6 Milw +12
#7 Char +2.5
#8 Sac +7.5
Totals:
#1 Min ov 206
#2 Sac un 196.5
#3 Phi un 189.5
#4 Milw ov 189.5
#5 Chi ov 187
#6 Dal ov 198
#7 Char un 197
#8 NY un 197.5
--------------
Running late today...
First 2 bets ever at Matchbook...Won't be my last...I am liking this book...
I deliberately gave up 1/2 a point to get positive juice on both...
Adding 2 bets:
Level 1 -- Detroit/Sacramento under 196.5, laying $250 to win $252.50 -- This is a "chart-play" for me, pure and simple...DET had 5 Overs to start the season and then went Under last time out, so that 5-game Over streak should reverese it self for a game or two...And SAC also had 4 straight Overs before an Under last time out, so you can pretty much cll this a double-chart play...Doesn't hurt that Martin is OUT for SAC, and I also expect DET to start playing some defense and get back to what they do best...I am hoping tonight is the night for that...
Level 1 -- Minnesota/Golden State over 206, laying $250 to win $257.50 -- The Warriors Have gone over all 4 games at Home, while going Under all 4 Road games (in regulaton, there was an OT-aided Over)...Minny can run with their personnel, so when you look at the game they played at SAC 4 days ago, the total was 230 and the pace was fast (168 shots and 56 FTs attempted)...Again, with the energy at Oracle, I expect a frenetic pace for this game...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
Sides:
#1 Phi -4.5
#2 Min +6
#3 NY +4.5
#4 Chi -4
#5 Dal -6
#6 Milw +12
#7 Char +2.5
#8 Sac +7.5
Totals:
#1 Min ov 206
#2 Sac un 196.5
#3 Phi un 189.5
#4 Milw ov 189.5
#5 Chi ov 187
#6 Dal ov 198
#7 Char un 197
#8 NY un 197.5
--------------
Running late today...
First 2 bets ever at Matchbook...Won't be my last...I am liking this book...
I deliberately gave up 1/2 a point to get positive juice on both...
Adding 2 bets:
Level 1 -- Detroit/Sacramento under 196.5, laying $250 to win $252.50 -- This is a "chart-play" for me, pure and simple...DET had 5 Overs to start the season and then went Under last time out, so that 5-game Over streak should reverese it self for a game or two...And SAC also had 4 straight Overs before an Under last time out, so you can pretty much cll this a double-chart play...Doesn't hurt that Martin is OUT for SAC, and I also expect DET to start playing some defense and get back to what they do best...I am hoping tonight is the night for that...
Level 1 -- Minnesota/Golden State over 206, laying $250 to win $257.50 -- The Warriors Have gone over all 4 games at Home, while going Under all 4 Road games (in regulaton, there was an OT-aided Over)...Minny can run with their personnel, so when you look at the game they played at SAC 4 days ago, the total was 230 and the pace was fast (168 shots and 56 FTs attempted)...Again, with the energy at Oracle, I expect a frenetic pace for this game...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
Very busy day to this point at work...As soon as some free time arises, I'll post some thoughts because I have some on a betting situation tonight that applies to 2 games...
And that is the situation where 60% or more of the public is betting an underdog...
Now, I let my subscription to sportsinsights run out 2 years ago after I did this full-time and had to pull out with all that legislation that passed, so I am wondering if there are any free sites out there that tracks % of bets like sportsinsights does?...
If there are no good free ones, I may have to renew there...
But basically, and I have to give credit to the Swedish Professional capper that i talked to every day for 2 years who pointed this out to me, the "rule" is you take the favorite every time the public is on a dog at a percentage of 60% or higher...
I'll be back later with picks and at least one bet...
And that is the situation where 60% or more of the public is betting an underdog...
Now, I let my subscription to sportsinsights run out 2 years ago after I did this full-time and had to pull out with all that legislation that passed, so I am wondering if there are any free sites out there that tracks % of bets like sportsinsights does?...
If there are no good free ones, I may have to renew there...
But basically, and I have to give credit to the Swedish Professional capper that i talked to every day for 2 years who pointed this out to me, the "rule" is you take the favorite every time the public is on a dog at a percentage of 60% or higher...
I'll be back later with picks and at least one bet...
Quick random thoughts:
The Atlanta game has not moved from 10.5 even though I see (on covers) that 66% of the people are picking ATL (I would love to know how many bets are on ATL)...
The Lakers have 60% of the public (and I certainly call the covers/wagerline folks public with a capital P-U-B-L-I-C) and yet that line has gone from 1 to 1.5, a reverse line move...
What this is telling me, beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Celtics and Hornets are the plays tonight, and possibly strong plays...
Now these plays aren't necessarily as strong early in the season if my memory serves me correct, so I may not even bet either one (as i will bet another game), but to be frank, it's hard not to bet Boston and New Orleans seeing these numbers...
ATL has that trend working for them where the they (Atlanta) play the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season (Boston) for the first time this season, so the play is Atlanta...HOWEVER, the situational spot, I think, favors Boston as ATL is coming off a tough game last night and they are also 6-0 on the season, while BOS is 6-1 and I think the Celts may want to send this team a message tonight to let them know, possibly emphaticly, who IS the best team in the East...It is also the first time ATL is going on back-to-back nights...
Lakers also had a tough game last night and showed a lot of emotion in the 4Q as they came from behind to beat Dallas...Trevor Ariza, who I mentioned 2 weeks ago as a HUGE, huge bench player for the Lakers now that he is healthy and he showed just how BIG he is with 13 points, 6 boards and 3 steals, playing almost 29 minutes, key minutes, quality minutes for LAL...First time LAL is on a back-ender against a quality team...Hornets should have something to prove tonight...
The Atlanta game has not moved from 10.5 even though I see (on covers) that 66% of the people are picking ATL (I would love to know how many bets are on ATL)...
The Lakers have 60% of the public (and I certainly call the covers/wagerline folks public with a capital P-U-B-L-I-C) and yet that line has gone from 1 to 1.5, a reverse line move...
What this is telling me, beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Celtics and Hornets are the plays tonight, and possibly strong plays...
Now these plays aren't necessarily as strong early in the season if my memory serves me correct, so I may not even bet either one (as i will bet another game), but to be frank, it's hard not to bet Boston and New Orleans seeing these numbers...
ATL has that trend working for them where the they (Atlanta) play the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season (Boston) for the first time this season, so the play is Atlanta...HOWEVER, the situational spot, I think, favors Boston as ATL is coming off a tough game last night and they are also 6-0 on the season, while BOS is 6-1 and I think the Celts may want to send this team a message tonight to let them know, possibly emphaticly, who IS the best team in the East...It is also the first time ATL is going on back-to-back nights...
Lakers also had a tough game last night and showed a lot of emotion in the 4Q as they came from behind to beat Dallas...Trevor Ariza, who I mentioned 2 weeks ago as a HUGE, huge bench player for the Lakers now that he is healthy and he showed just how BIG he is with 13 points, 6 boards and 3 steals, playing almost 29 minutes, key minutes, quality minutes for LAL...First time LAL is on a back-ender against a quality team...Hornets should have something to prove tonight...
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="100%">ATLANTA HAWKS</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Atlanta is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Boston</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers><TD class=Column_Headers width="100%">BOSTON CELTICS</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Boston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games </TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games </TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Boston is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games at home</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Atlanta</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=Sport_data width="100%">The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 8-7, +$85
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 53-50-2
#1 picks: 9-6
Totals: 55-50
#1 picks: 3-12
=====================================
Day 16:
Totals went 8-0 last night and my #1 total has now won twice in a row...I expect it to win 4 in a row before losing again...Tough choice for me tonight between Miami Over and SA Under tonight (pick below)...The Sixers have me baffled right now...I need to stay away from them...However, I see 72% on Toronto tonight and that line has not budged from 5.5...tells me Phillly is the play...Also, there is a "rule" where brewers7 was on a team one game too early, so you take that team the next time out, and since I bet Philly last night and lost, that definitely makes them the play tonight (remember I bet the Clippers last week and they didn't cover and then they beat Dallas their next time out)...Also, the Clippers are a "chart-play" for me (I think I'll post a link to my chart tonight or tomorrow), whereby they had a NC6 streak to start the season, now Covered last time out, so many times, streaks like this will immediately reverse themselves for a spell...I already talked about the reasons why Boston and New Orleans are games where you either take those teams or don't bet the game at all...Very hard for me not to bet the Mia over and SA under coming off a good totals night, but I'll pass...
Sides:
#1 Hou +3.5
#2 LAC -7.5
#3 Bos -10.5
#4 NO -1.5
#5 Phi +5.5
#6 Memp -4.5
#7 OKC +7
#8 Mia -1.5
#9 Was +4.5
#10 NJ +1.5
#11 SA +2.5
Totals:
#1 SA un 181
#2 Mia ov 189
#3 NO un 196.5
#4 Hou un 199
#5 Phi un 185
#6 Memp ov 205
#7 Bos ov 184.5
#8 LAC un 195
#9 OKC ov 187.5
#10 NJ un 200
#11 Was un 196
BET:
Level 1 -- Houston Rockets Pick (+137), laying $182.50 to win $250 -- Taking the Rockets moneyline here as I like taking good teams coming off 20+ point and especially 30+ point losses...Houson got thrashed by the Lakers by 29 last time out at Staples, despite jumping out to a big league in the game...This should be all the motivation they need here...HOU has lost 3 of their last 4...Houston, on paper, is the better team...Look at who PHOE has beat this year...SA, who is very slow out of the gate and hve a losing record, NJ, IND, MILW & MEMP, who all have losing records...PORT is 4-3, the only team with a winning record they have beaten...HOU has faced BOS, LAL and DAL...PHOE barely beat MEMP at Home last time out...I like the Rockets in this bounce-back spot after their 2H melt-down at Staples last time out...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 8-7, +$85
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 53-50-2
#1 picks: 9-6
Totals: 55-50
#1 picks: 3-12
=====================================
Day 16:
Totals went 8-0 last night and my #1 total has now won twice in a row...I expect it to win 4 in a row before losing again...Tough choice for me tonight between Miami Over and SA Under tonight (pick below)...The Sixers have me baffled right now...I need to stay away from them...However, I see 72% on Toronto tonight and that line has not budged from 5.5...tells me Phillly is the play...Also, there is a "rule" where brewers7 was on a team one game too early, so you take that team the next time out, and since I bet Philly last night and lost, that definitely makes them the play tonight (remember I bet the Clippers last week and they didn't cover and then they beat Dallas their next time out)...Also, the Clippers are a "chart-play" for me (I think I'll post a link to my chart tonight or tomorrow), whereby they had a NC6 streak to start the season, now Covered last time out, so many times, streaks like this will immediately reverse themselves for a spell...I already talked about the reasons why Boston and New Orleans are games where you either take those teams or don't bet the game at all...Very hard for me not to bet the Mia over and SA under coming off a good totals night, but I'll pass...
Sides:
#1 Hou +3.5
#2 LAC -7.5
#3 Bos -10.5
#4 NO -1.5
#5 Phi +5.5
#6 Memp -4.5
#7 OKC +7
#8 Mia -1.5
#9 Was +4.5
#10 NJ +1.5
#11 SA +2.5
Totals:
#1 SA un 181
#2 Mia ov 189
#3 NO un 196.5
#4 Hou un 199
#5 Phi un 185
#6 Memp ov 205
#7 Bos ov 184.5
#8 LAC un 195
#9 OKC ov 187.5
#10 NJ un 200
#11 Was un 196
BET:
Level 1 -- Houston Rockets Pick (+137), laying $182.50 to win $250 -- Taking the Rockets moneyline here as I like taking good teams coming off 20+ point and especially 30+ point losses...Houson got thrashed by the Lakers by 29 last time out at Staples, despite jumping out to a big league in the game...This should be all the motivation they need here...HOU has lost 3 of their last 4...Houston, on paper, is the better team...Look at who PHOE has beat this year...SA, who is very slow out of the gate and hve a losing record, NJ, IND, MILW & MEMP, who all have losing records...PORT is 4-3, the only team with a winning record they have beaten...HOU has faced BOS, LAL and DAL...PHOE barely beat MEMP at Home last time out...I like the Rockets in this bounce-back spot after their 2H melt-down at Staples last time out...
Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...
GL...
=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================
Here is the link. Shows number of bets taken at this offshore. Right now this makes Boston the play, dog over 60%. You have to do the math to convert % to bets. Click on player picks on home page to get to this info. They remove this info once game starts.
http://www.caribsports.com/
<table class="bet" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);">
# 705 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 7:35pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Hawks vs Celtics </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Celtics 38.12%
Hawks 61.88%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 4208 Bets</td></tr></tbody></table>
http://www.caribsports.com/
<table class="bet" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);">
# 705 </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 7:35pm </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Hawks vs Celtics </td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> Celtics 38.12%
Hawks 61.88%
</td> <td class="bet_cell_a" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153);"> 4208 Bets</td></tr></tbody></table>
