Nate Silver says Trump would be favorite if election were held today

[vitterd]

Vit, did I read the other day that you met another poster in AC? if not, has anyone from here ever met you? not ask a million questions but have you ever mad a wager with anyone on this forum? thanks

I posted I would be in AC for days and where I am a ton of times. Broke losers like Joe and Acebb can never show. They know I would laugh at their appearence.

yes, ive made several wagers on this forum with several posters that tally thousands of dollars.

ive tried to make several bets with Acebb or Joe....both are broke and scared to post picks.

 

[Acebb]

Vit, did I read the other day that you met another poster in AC? if not, has anyone from here ever met you? not ask a million questions but have you ever mad a wager with anyone on this forum? thanks

He was pretending to not be alone. That is how "great" his life is.

He has never met anyone from this forum, despite 3+ years of outright begging.

 

[vitterd]

He was pretending to not be alone. That is how "great" his life is.

He has never met anyone from this forum, despite 3+ years of outright begging.

Outright begging!! Lmao

"vit you never meet anyone here"..."ok, meet me here"....."stop begging"

 

[Acebb]

Outright begging!! Lmao

"vit you never meet anyone here"..."ok, meet me here"....."stop begging"

Um

My life is still fantastic....no matter how much you wnt it not to be. I will be enjoying lebron tomorrow with my fake tickets and my sucky life.....no a bad drive for you.....tix still available...cmon down and see how much it sucks for me.

UM

I like Scott.....it's pretty much an open invite for anyone. My wife never goes and I enjoy going solo sometimes.....and just listening to Howard stern up and back.....can take close to two hours on a bad day......so my other seat is usually empty. Sixers have good deals for season ticket holders, as far as exchanges and more tickets for a primo game, club box access.

Not sure where your from but ever in area.....shoot me a pm and watch a game. Yeah, I know they suck.

^ Isn't what you said.

Hey, can you pretend you're meeting people in Atlantic City again? That will show everyone how "great" your life is.

I promise.

 

[vitterd]

Um



UM



^ Isn't what you said.

Hey, can you pretend you're meeting people in Atlantic City again? That will show everyone how "great" your life is.

I promise.

Thats begging?? What year was that post 2011? Lmao .....you have serious mental problems.

 

[BleedingPurple]

No silver agrees with Vegas .
All he was saying was in a hypothetical situation of the election being today is that trump would win. But since the election is not today it's a moot point . He still believes the odds of Clinton winning in November is about the same as the odds the sports books have

Ok thanks, I didn't read the story and should have

 

[BleedingPurple]

they didn't offer me that, but I'll ask next time

the most they let me withdraw was 3k by check, but it was free

5 dimes pays out really quick, I have another offshore I have been with and have had multiple checks sent to me and they always, always arrive in 2 days. 3 K max per week. They aren't s sponsor here but I have used them for 10 years

 

[BleedingPurple]

Ok I got sucked back into this Michelangelo / Vitterd thing again... Mainly cause I am bored at work..

I know what all you guys against Vit are saying, it's the math, it's independent events.. etc

Why do guys who start out hot tend to cool off and those who start out cool heat up? They are all individual events?

Just want to hear some answers, I have a rationale...

 

[SmallDaddy]

I can see why people would cool off. Because they are not that good and were lucky to begin with and they simply regress back to the mean.

People go on streaks (either direction) but ultimately end up where they should

 

[MantisToboggan]

Ok I got sucked back into this Michelangelo / Vitterd thing again... Mainly cause I am bored at work..

I know what all you guys against Vit are saying, it's the math, it's independent events.. etc

Why do guys who start out hot tend to cool off and those who start out cool heat up? They are all individual events?

Just want to hear some answers, I have a rationale...

It depends what you mean by "cool off". He will likely regress back to his usual numbers.

 

[vitterd]

It depends what you mean by "cool off". He will likely regress back to his usual numbers.

Wait.....ive said I'm likely to cool off and he's likely to do better.....which was another reason I didn't take the bet. I thought that was not a factor?

 

[MantisToboggan]

Wait.....ive said I'm likely to cool off and he's likely to do better.....which was another reason I didn't take the bet. I thought that was not a factor?

Please don't twist my words. As I have said all along, you are most likely to hit at your usual 55, or whatever you claimed, the rest of the way and Mich at his 53, or whatever you said, the rest of the way. Based on those numbers you take the bet. At no time did I ever say you'd continue to hit at 70.

 

[vitterd]

Please don't twist my words. As I have said all along, you are most likely to hit at your usual 55, or whatever you claimed, the rest of the way and Mich at his 53, or whatever you said, the rest of the way. Based on those numbers you take the bet. At no time did I ever say you'd continue to hit at 70.

I actually didn't make a claim of any percentage.....we were just using those numbers as examples.

 

[MantisToboggan]

I actually didn't make a claim of any percentage.....we were just using those numbers as examples.

The point is you claimed to be an overall better baseball bettor. Whatever numbers you based that off are the numbers that you would each regress to.

 

[BleedingPurple]

It depends what you mean by "cool off". He will likely regress back to his usual numbers.

Yes and the other will likely gain to his "usual numbers." Meaning that in a two month period Michaelangelo has an advantage even though each game is independent. Why? Well it depends on capping, it's hard to cap the same way over a long grind, what caps early may not win later. otherwise you would see a higher percentage of professional gamblers. Many gamblers have to adjust the way they cap to keep the edge. Now the way Michealangelo is capping hasn't been working but if he usually has a track record capping that way then his style of capping might be the way to go, maybe not. I guess at the end of the day, Vit has offered to take bets at the start of the season and that's fair enough to me. I read something where Michaelangelo wants to take him on NOW or no bet, I could be wrong but wouldn't that be nice to have a bad season to date and be able to compete for a contest during the season. Hell I wouldn't even play my games, I would just concentrate on winning the personal bet

 

[MantisToboggan]

Yes and the other will likely gain to his "usual numbers." Meaning that in a two month period Michaelangelo has an advantage even though each game is independent. Why? Well it depends on capping, it's hard to cap the same way over a long grind, what caps early may not win later. otherwise you would see a higher percentage of professional gamblers. Many gamblers have to adjust the way they cap to keep the edge. Now the way Michealangelo is capping hasn't been working but if he usually has a track record capping that way then his style of capping might be the way to go, maybe not. I guess at the end of the day, Vit has offered to take bets at the start of the season and that's fair enough to me. I read something where Michaelangelo wants to take him on NOW or no bet, I could be wrong but wouldn't that be nice to have a bad season to date and be able to compete for a contest during the season. Hell I wouldn't even play my games, I would just concentrate on winning the personal bet

No. Mich has no edge.

 

[PatsFan1283]

BleedingPurple you're letting your mind run wild man.

Unless otherwise specified, there is no change in the theoretical win-rate of the cappers in question.

 

[vitterd]

Yes and the other will likely gain to his "usual numbers." Meaning that in a two month period Michaelangelo has an advantage even though each game is independent. Why? Well it depends on capping, it's hard to cap the same way over a long grind, what caps early may not win later. otherwise you would see a higher percentage of professional gamblers. Many gamblers have to adjust the way they cap to keep the edge. Now the way Michealangelo is capping hasn't been working but if he usually has a track record capping that way then his style of capping might be the way to go, maybe not. I guess at the end of the day, Vit has offered to take bets at the start of the season and that's fair enough to me. I read something where Michaelangelo wants to take him on NOW or no bet, I could be wrong but wouldn't that be nice to have a bad season to date and be able to compete for a contest during the season. Hell I wouldn't even play my games, I would just concentrate on winning the personal bet

Yeah. If I'm hitting 70 percent and he's hitting 40 percent in first 4 months.....if I cool off and hit a normal percentage and he steps up to his normal percentage....I lose. Even if I hit 58 percent for the year and he comes up to 53.....I lose. It's not a smart bet for me. The sample size is just too small as well. He could win over last 2 months, even though I smash him over the entire year.

 

[BleedingPurple]

BleedingPurple you're letting your mind run wild man.

Unless otherwise specified, there is no change in the theoretical win-rate of the cappers in question.

OK I can live with that, I am going to email a professional I know, just curious to see what he thinks.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Unless you're OK with him thinking less of you then I wouldn't do that.

You can't add random subjectivity like "Maybe Mich does better 2nd half" to a math question.