Nate Silver says Trump would be favorite if election were held today

[MantisToboggan]

Yeah. If I'm hitting 70 percent and he's hitting 40 percent in first 4 months.....if I cool off and hit a normal percentage and he steps up to his normal percentage....I lose. Even if I hit 58 percent for the year and he comes up to 53.....I lose. It's not a smart bet for me. The sample size is just too small as well. He could win over last 2 months, even though I smash him over the entire year.

The scenario you listed above would require you to hit at 34% for the remaining 1/3 of the season and Mich to hit at 79% for the remaining 1/3 of the season.

 

[BleedingPurple]

Unless you're OK with him thinking less of you then I wouldn't do that.

You can't add random subjectivity like "Maybe Mich does better 2nd half" to a math question.

That's not what I asked him and there is no subjectivity, no opinions by me just the facts.

 

[Willie99]

odds at Bovada at this moment

Democrat -200
Republican +160

surprised me they were so low

now -215 / +175

 

[The Guesser]

That was quick. Nate now has Hillary as a 57-43 Likelihood of winning if the Election were held today(Sunday, July 31st). Guess the Fools and Hypocrites will have to go back to blasting his numbers as meaningless again. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton
56.8%


Donald Trump
43.2%

 

[Willie99]

-220 / +180 this morning

 

[Dafinch]

That was quick. Nate now has Hillary as a 57-43 Likelihood of winning if the Election were held today(Sunday, July 31st). Guess the Fools and Hypocrites will have to go back to blasting his numbers as meaningless again. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton
56.8%


Donald Trump
43.2%

Yeah, that wasn't a tough call, was it? Wonder what the odds will move to if Rump makes an excuse to avoid the debates, which I predicted some time ago and which the following article indicates is a distinct possibility:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...ubject=trump-announces-his-debate-escape-plan

 

[The Guesser]

Yeah, that wasn't a tough call, was it? Wonder what the odds will move to if Rump makes an excuse to avoid the debates, which I predicted some time ago and which the following article indicates is a distinct possibility:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...ubject=trump-announces-his-debate-escape-plan

WOW, now up to 82-18 Hillary if the election were held today. Quite a Bounce for Hillary. They Hypocritical Liars will have to go back to belittling Nate the Great's Numbers Again, especially the Fraud who started this thread.
Who will win the presidency?

• 
  [*=center]
  
  [*=center]
  

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton
[FONT=&quot]82.2%

Donald Trump[FONT=&quot]17.7%​

​

[/FONT]
[/FONT]

 

[Dafinch]

WOW, now up to 82-18 Hillary if the election were held today. Quite a Bounce for Hillary. They Hypocritical Liars will have to go back to belittling Nate the Great's Numbers Again, especially the Fraud who started this thread.
Who will win the presidency?

• 
  [*=center]
  
  [*=center]
  

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton
82.2%

Donald Trump17.7%​

Another day, another lie, another walk back; can this prick go, even, three days without lying?

[h=1]Trump retreats from claim that NFL sent letter regarding debates[/h] Posted by Mike Florio on July 31, 2016, 10:09 AM EDT

Getty ImagesPresidential candidate Donald Trump doesn’t like the fact that two of the three scheduled debates conflict with NFL prime-time games. He claimed in an interview with ABC’s This Week that the NFL sent him a letter calling the move “ridiculous.”
The league called him on it, saying no letter was sent. Apparently learning a lesson from the last time he took on the NFL (as owner of the USFL’s New Jersey Generals), Trump has backed down.
“Mr. Trump was made aware of the conflicting dates by a source close to the league,” Trump’s campaign said in a statement to This Week.
The difference between being “made aware” of the conflict by a “source close to the league” and having the NFL officially express disapproval of the schedule in a letter is significant, obviously. And it doesn’t take much for a “source close to the league” to make Trump “aware” of the conflict. The source could have been his friend Tom Brady. The source could have been three-time former NFL coach Mike Shanahan, who hosted a fundraiser for Trump in Colorado. The source could have been one of the various owners he knows. The source could have been Paul Hicks, former NFL P.R. chief and father of Trump’s current P.R. chief, Hope Hicks.

Regardless, someone provided Trump with open and obvious information about the scheduling of two debates on nights when the NFL typically plays games: Sunday and Monday. That’s a long way from an official effort to get the debates moved that was reduced to writing, printed on NFL letterhead, and signed by Roger Goodell or some other high-level league executive.

 

[The Guesser]

Today's "If The Election were held Today" from Nate The Great: [h=2]Who will win the presidency?[/h]

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Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton
[FONT=&quot]88.6%

Donald Trump[FONT=&quot]11.3%​

​

[/FONT]
[/FONT]

 

[SmallDaddy]

Nate is back to being a hack again. So his opinion, when its unfavorable to Republicans, no longer matters.

Back to Rassmussen

 

[vidswaps]

Nate is back to being a hack again. So his opinion, when its unfavorable to Republicans, no longer matters.

Back to Rassmussen

Wait I also heard that they finally found "Mr Landslide" Dick,and he is Benedict Donald's camp right now as we speak.

 

[Willie99]

Nate is back to being a hack again. So his opinion, when its unfavorable to Republicans, no longer matters.

Back to Rassmussen

spoken like a true libtard

face)(*^%

 

[superbeets]

 

[superbeets]

 

[superbeets]

 

[The Guesser]

Today's Now cast. Hillary surpasses 90% probability, "if the Election were held today" As usual, the Always Wrong Wrong Way Fraud who started this thread, has it blow up in fraudulent face.


Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton
91.5%

Donald Trump8.5%​

 

[HamGlaze]

I bet they're registered as voters too.

 

[The Guesser]

Today's Now cast. Hillary holds her 90% probability, "if the Election were held today" As usual, the Always Wrong Wrong Way Fraud who started this thread, has it blow up in fraudulent face.

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton
[FONT=&quot]91.7%

Donald Trump[FONT=&quot]8.3%​

​

[/FONT]
[/FONT]

 

[Dafinch]

You oughta post that picture for any rally your fellow lunatic Road Kill reports on, Jagoff...

 

[RunMaker]

Guesser, don't worry who wins. No matter who wins you'll still be able to suck those penises and you'll be able to go into women's restrooms as a man dressed up as a woman.

You're good, Guesser. You're good.