Nate Silver says Trump would be favorite if election were held today

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Vito if ur ventures r doing well do u to take it

It's a tight race ....why would I make a bet like that?

you can get a better price at an offshore book. No money to post up huh? Poor people vouchers should be coming in soon to help you out.
 

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Me and you heads up for a thousand in any sport Joe. You still running from me?

Nah, I actually feel bad you can't scrape two cents together for a forum contest.

So if you need a dime for Michelangelo, PM me and I'll be glad to help.

"No way! I'm not giving Mich a head start! Smart bettors know this"

I mean, nobody could possibly be THAT stupid...could they? :ohno:
 

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Nah, I actually feel bad you can't scrape two cents together for a forum contest.

If you need a dime for Michelangelo, PM me and I'll be glad to help.

"No way! I'm not giving Mich a head start!"

I mean, nobody could possibly be that stupid...could they?

I didn't think so. You have now run from 10 bets. You must be dead broke. Why aren't you in any forum contests? Your 1-9 record?

Im +12 dimes and he's -60 dimes. Let's start a contest even face)(*^%
 

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I didn't think so. You have now run from 10 bets. You must be dead broke.

Im +12 dimes and he's -60 dimes. Let's start a contest even face)(*^%

Umm, you're both starting at 0-0 with 1200 games to go (minus the time you've been procrastinating). Explain why this isn't true.

Or maybe...

He's secretly ahead betting other games he doesn't share in the forum. Betcha you never thought about that one, did ya genius. face)(*^%
 

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Umm, you're both starting at 0-0 with 1200 games to go (minus the time you've been procrastinating). Explain why this isn't true.

Or maybe...

He's secretly ahead betting other games he doesn't share in the forum. Betcha you never thought about that one, did ya genius. face)(*^%

Why would I wanna start 0-0.....I beat him soundly in first 4 months.

you think he's betting other games not posted? Lmao.....he posts almost the entire board every night.

he ends up -60k for year and I end up +12....I pay him. Lol...yeah, smart betface)(*^%
 

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Why would I wanna start 0-0.....I beat him soundly in first 4 months.

you think he's betting other games not posted? Lmao.....he posts almost the entire board every night.

he ends up -60k for year and I end up +12....I pay him. Lol...yeah, smart betface)(*^%

Hey stupid!

the -60K and +12K don't exist...you are starting fresh: 0-0

The past does not equal the future.

What part of 0-0 don't you understand?

"He has a head start on me, I pay him. Yeah smart bet, Joe...real smart!" - vtard face)(*^%
 

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Hey stupid!

the -60K and +12K don't exist...you are starting fresh: 0-0

The past does not equal the future.

What part of 0-0 don't you understand?

"He has a head start on me, I pay him. Yeah smart bet, Joe...real smart!" - vtard face)(*^%

Of course they exist. We both posted our plays. Perhaps he would like to take the bet including all the posted plays from the first 4 months. I'm better and over a longer sample, I will win. He could win a short 2 month contest but over the year I win and it isn't close.

Me and you can start 0-0....step up for once in your life. Gas man will probably loan you the money.
 

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Of course they exist. We both posted our plays. Perhaps he would like to take the bet including all the posted plays from the first 4 months. I'm better and over a longer sample, I will win. He could win a short 2 month contest but over the year I win and it isn't close.

Me and you can start 0-0....step up for once in your life. Gas man will probably loan you the money.

Dude, MLB has 1,200 games remaining. The NFL has 256 regular season games. Can you fucking count? That's almost 5 times as many games in the next 2 months of MLB as a full season of pro football. But because football season is longer and spread out over 6 months, this somehow gives you a magic edge?

"Over the year I win and it isn't close!" :):)

LMFAO!
 

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Dude, MLB has 1,200 games remaining. The NFL has 256 regular season games. Can you fucking count? That's almost 5 times as many games in the next 2 months of MLB as a full season of pro football. But because football season is longer and spread out over 6 months, this somehow gives you a magic edge?

"Over the year I win and it isn't close!" :):)

LMFAO!

None of that matters. He can easily win a quick 2 month contest.....but still get killed for the year. I'm ahead by 60 dimes right now....and over a long season.....I will beat him everytime. He may beat me in small sample but that's it.....the first half shows he has no chance over a full season.
 
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None of that matters. He can easily win a quick 2 month contest.....but still get killed for the year. I'm ahead by 60 dimes right now....and over a long season.....I will beat him everytime. He may beat me in small sample but that's it.....the first half shows he has no chance over a full season.

Vitterd: "Michelangelo has had such a miserable year betting, that he has an advantage over a future bet"

BWHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Unbelievably stupid.
 

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Vitterd: "Michelangelo has had such a miserable year betting, that he has an advantage over a future bet"

BWHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Unbelievably stupid.

Many people here feel the same way. You keep comparing sports betting to roulette ball spins.

It is very simple....he ends up -59k and I end up 13k for the season.....he wins. Only a moron would make a bet where that is a possible outcome. Since you really don't understand sports betting.....you won't get this.
 

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You gotta finish reading the story.
It said if the election were today trump would be the probable winner but silver went on to say Clinton was still the fav because the election is not today.

If there were an election today it would not have the DMC bounce and many other things such as future debates in the calculations that will be included in the real election in November .
 

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You are slow, my point is today... she has a 71% probability of winning according to Vegas, that's the only point I am making. I'm not saying it won't change, I'm not saying Trump is going to lose and she is going to win. I am saying that Vegas disagrees with Silver today.

No silver agrees with Vegas .
All he was saying was in a hypothetical situation of the election being today is that trump would win. But since the election is not today it's a moot point . He still believes the odds of Clinton winning in November is about the same as the odds the sports books have
 

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You gotta finish reading the story.
It said if the election were today trump would be the probable winner but silver went on to say Clinton was still the fav because the election is not today.

If there were an election today it would not have the DMC bounce and many other things such as future debates in the calculations that will be included in the real election in November .

You've been here enough to know they never use context and complete thoughts when making their inane declarations.
 

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are the village idiots bashing Silver yet?

or is it my fault he said what he said?

@):mad:@):mad:@):mad:
 

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are the village idiots bashing Silver yet?

or is it my fault he said what he said?

@):mad:@):mad:@):mad:

Im not bashing silver because I respect what he says.
Thats how I knew that what he said was not what was said was said in this thread.

It is certainly a positive for trump that if the election were today he would have a 58% chance of winning.

But it's not accurate to say that silver is predicting that he is going to win in November .
 

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Im not bashing silver because I respect what he says.
Thats how I knew that what he said was not what was said was said in this thread.

It is certainly a positive for trump that if the election were today he would have a 58% chance of winning.

But it's not accurate to say that silver is predicting that he is going to win in November .

well then, I said what he said, and you just don't know what was said

it's not accurate to say I said something I didn't say

check again
 

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"but the convention was a failure"

and "there was no convention bounce"

----If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Mondayfor his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.
In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.
Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.
Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver's model.
It's the first time in Silver's "Now-cast" forecast that Trump has been projected to win.
However, in Silver's polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were — hovering around 80%.
Silver raised eyebrows Friday on Twitter when he pointed out "how plausible it is that Trump could become president."



Nate Silver ------------------------------------


so the OP is merely a copy of his article
 

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