Hmmmm, do we listen to NASA, the group responsible for creating satellites, spacecraft that can reach Mars.... or do we listen to resident obsessed birther loon Sheriff Joe and racist supporter festeringZit? Very very difficult decision. One that I must ponder for a while.
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According to Norman Loeb, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and the principal investigator of a space-borne sensor called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, or CERES, the answer is almost certainly no.
"Heating is still going on," he said. "It's just not in terms of the surface air temperature."
Loeb explained the science behind that statement Tuesday, Aug. 5, during a talk at NASA Langley titled "The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent?"
Though Loeb believes there are a handful of short-term factors that drive changes in surface air temperature, like the El Niño and La Niña phenomena that cause temperature fluctuations in the tropical eastern Pacific approximately every two years, he thinks there is a longer term factor that is a significant and overlooked contributor.
"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects surface temperature," Loeb said. "It's a pattern of temperature shifts, primarily over the Pacific, that occurs about every 20 or 30 years."
Historically, those shifts have coincided with changes in surface temperature.
"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a very distinctive pattern. During the positive phase, surface temperature rises more rapidly," he said. "During the negative phase, the rate of temperature increase slows down, hence a hiatus. It's very compelling when you see the actual observations."
Loeb showed measurements during his talk demonstrating steady increases in surface air temperature from 1920 to 1940 and again from 1976 to 2000, periods when the decadal oscillation was in a positive phase. From 1940 to 1975, and again beginning in 2001, temperatures leveled out in concert with negative oscillation phases.
Surface air temperatures have increased by approximately 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the early 20[SUP]th[/SUP] century. On this timescale, the hiatuses look like short ledges along a graph of global average surface air temperature with an otherwise steep upward slope.
"You can't just look at short periods of time," Loeb said. "You have to look at the record over a long period of time to see the pattern. There will be natural fluctuations at shorter time scales, but we really shouldn't conclude that that's a change and global warming is going away."
Even as surface air temperatures are currently holding relatively steady, Loeb believes there's still another issue to take into consideration.
"Observations are showing us the planet is still taking up heat, but it is just showing up in a different place," he said.
That different place is the ocean.
In other words, as humans and nature continue to apply pressure to the Earth's climate through increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, temperatures are still rising. But as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation briefly tames temperatures at the planet's surface, the oceans are where the real heating is happening.
"If you add extra heat to the Earth system, approximately 93 percent of that extra heat ends up stored in the ocean, and the ocean is very deep," Loeb said. "When we look at air temperature, we are just looking at the surface. There's a whole deep ocean where heat can be stored."
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/1141/