We often hear that there is a "scientific consensus" about climate change. But as far as the computer models go, there isn't a useful consensus at the level of detail relevant to assessing human influences.
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• The models differ in their descriptions of the past century's global average surface temperature by more than three times the entire warming recorded during that time. Such mismatches are also present in many other basic climate factors, including rainfall, which is fundamental to the atmosphere's energy balance. As a result, the models give widely varying descriptions of the climate's inner workings. Since they disagree so markedly, no more than one of them can be right.
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Dr. Koonin was undersecretary for science in the Energy Department during President Barack Obama's first term and is currently director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/climate-science-is-not-settled-1411143565
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• The models differ in their descriptions of the past century's global average surface temperature by more than three times the entire warming recorded during that time. Such mismatches are also present in many other basic climate factors, including rainfall, which is fundamental to the atmosphere's energy balance. As a result, the models give widely varying descriptions of the climate's inner workings. Since they disagree so markedly, no more than one of them can be right.
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Dr. Koonin was undersecretary for science in the Energy Department during President Barack Obama's first term and is currently director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/climate-science-is-not-settled-1411143565
The GCMs do a pretty good job of hindcasting because they got to look at the answers before they took the test. It's the forecasting where they tend to struggle. 
ointer:
I can't think of another field of science where models are used as evidence. Usually a hypothesis is formed, models are created with the assumptions from that hypothesis, and then compared to real world observations. In climate science, Hansen created a hypothesis in 1988 and we have spent billions trying to create models that confirm it. Observation be damned!
ointer:I can't think of another field of science where models are used as evidence. Usually a hypothesis is formed, models are created with the assumptions from that hypothesis, and then compared to real world observations. In climate science, Hansen created a hypothesis in 1988 and we have spent billions trying to create models that confirm it. Observation be damned!
The GCMs do a pretty good job of hindcasting because they got to look at the answers before they took the test. It's the forecasting where they tend to struggle.
I can't think of another field of science where models are used as evidence. Usually a hypothesis is formed, models are created with the assumptions from that hypothesis, and then compared to real world observations. In climate science, Hansen created a hypothesis in 1988 and we have spent billions trying to create models that confirm it. Observation be damned!
Real world observations overwhelming show global warming trends. Not even close.
Try the ocean. That’s one takeaway from a new paper published in Science today, one of a number of studies suggesting that the oceans depths seem to be soaking up the excess heat energy created by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Researchers led by Yair Rosenthal at Rutgers University reconstructed temperatures in one part of the Pacific Ocean and found that its middle depths have been warming some 15 times faster over the past 60 years than at any other time over the past 10,000 years. It’s as if the oceans have been acting as a battery, absorbing the excess charge created by the greenhouse effect, which leaves less to warm the surface of the planet, where we’d notice it.
(MORE: Slowdown Seen in Rising CO2 Emissions)
That means global warming is still happening, even if hasn’t necessarily been reflected in recent surface temperature changes. But there’s no guarantee that won’t change in the future. “We may have underestimated the efficiency of the oceans as a storehouse for heat and energy,” said Rosenthal in a statement. “It may buy us some time—how much time, I really don’t know. But it’s not going to stop climate change.”
The Science study isn’t the first to peg the oceans as a possible reservoir for the missing heat. An August study in Nature found that a cooler Pacific ocean seemed to be offsetting global warming, and other studies have indicated that the oceans began taking on significant heat around the same time that surface warming began to slow down in 1998. That shouldn’t be surprising—the vast oceans carry 93% of the stored energy from climate change, compared to just 1% for the atmosphere, with melting ice and landmasses making up the rest.
http://science.time.com/2013/11/01/oceans-warming-faster-than-they-have-over-past-10000-years/
(MORE: Slowdown Seen in Rising CO2 Emissions)
That means global warming is still happening, even if hasn’t necessarily been reflected in recent surface temperature changes. But there’s no guarantee that won’t change in the future. “We may have underestimated the efficiency of the oceans as a storehouse for heat and energy,” said Rosenthal in a statement. “It may buy us some time—how much time, I really don’t know. But it’s not going to stop climate change.”
The Science study isn’t the first to peg the oceans as a possible reservoir for the missing heat. An August study in Nature found that a cooler Pacific ocean seemed to be offsetting global warming, and other studies have indicated that the oceans began taking on significant heat around the same time that surface warming began to slow down in 1998. That shouldn’t be surprising—the vast oceans carry 93% of the stored energy from climate change, compared to just 1% for the atmosphere, with melting ice and landmasses making up the rest.
http://science.time.com/2013/11/01/oceans-warming-faster-than-they-have-over-past-10000-years/
It's not even an argument in academia anymore. Pretty much like arguing that cigarettes don't cause cancer. 90+% of actual scientists who study climate change agree that global warming is a fact and is happening. But I guess the conservative blogosphere doesn't. Funny how you guys believe retards. FesteringZit being supported by Sheriff Joe! Talk about fucking comedy gold!
Yea, there's definitely no warming going on. Americans forget that the United States is not the Earth, lol.
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While this summer may have felt like fall across much of the eastern half of the U.S., worldwide the overall picture was a warm one. This August was the warmest August on record globally, according to newly released NASA temperature data, while the summer tied for the fourth warmest.
Temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) of various regions around the world in August 2014.
Click image to enlarge. Credit: NASA
Central Europe, northern Africa, parts of South America, and the western portions of North America (including Alaska) were just some of the spots on the globe that saw much higher than normal temperatures for the month. Large parts of the oceans were also running unusually warm.
“For the past few months we've been seeing impressive warmth in large parts of the Pacific … and Indian Oceans in particular,” said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with ERT, Inc., at the National Climatic Data Center in an email.
This warmth was a large factor in August’s chart-topping temperature, which was 1.3°F higher than the 1951-1980 average for the month according to NASA data. NCDC also calculates how much a given month’s temperature varies from average, but their August data won’t be released until Thursday.
However, “we're expecting pretty impressive statistics for August,” Blunden told Climate Central.
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While this summer may have felt like fall across much of the eastern half of the U.S., worldwide the overall picture was a warm one. This August was the warmest August on record globally, according to newly released NASA temperature data, while the summer tied for the fourth warmest.
Temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) of various regions around the world in August 2014.Click image to enlarge. Credit: NASA
Central Europe, northern Africa, parts of South America, and the western portions of North America (including Alaska) were just some of the spots on the globe that saw much higher than normal temperatures for the month. Large parts of the oceans were also running unusually warm.
“For the past few months we've been seeing impressive warmth in large parts of the Pacific … and Indian Oceans in particular,” said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with ERT, Inc., at the National Climatic Data Center in an email.
This warmth was a large factor in August’s chart-topping temperature, which was 1.3°F higher than the 1951-1980 average for the month according to NASA data. NCDC also calculates how much a given month’s temperature varies from average, but their August data won’t be released until Thursday.
However, “we're expecting pretty impressive statistics for August,” Blunden told Climate Central.
The American Meteorological Society agrees the science isn't settled. The rank and file were surveyed and produced much different results than the "official" opinion.
http://judithcurry.com/2012/03/06/ams-members-surveyed-on-global-warming/
http://judithcurry.com/2012/03/06/ams-members-surveyed-on-global-warming/
Yep, no warming to see here. The Koch brothers have your balls on a platter, lol. Make you guys believe all kinds of silly things. Like a ridiculous religious cult. You guys are almost exactly like crazy Scientologists. Let's not forget the basic fact that we have increased CO2 levels and Co2 doesn't just disappear, lol. It's pretty simple why scientists all over the world understand that global warming is caused by humans. Not even an argument.
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