first some bookkeeping...been a nice run in u20 and confed cup
u20's 8-0-5 +5.48 (staked 14.12)
confed cup 6-0-1 +6.85 (staked 9.50)
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YTD 181-13-131 +51.87 (staked 407.16)
thread 42-2-22 +25.44....
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Sun 12pm
Italy vs Uruguay (confed cup 3rd place match)
- as with the Toulon 3rd place match and the Mediterranean Games 3rd place match this month I'll jump on the over in the Confederations Cup 3rd place as well. Italy missed a ton of 1H chances vs Spain and then looked brutally tired as Spain punished the back line for the next 75 minutes and it's still wild that match ended 0-0. It will be humid tomorrow in Bahia but only 79 degrees so hopefully will still have the tempo of a normal bronze medal match despite both teams coming here after difficult semi losses. Last 3 confed cups have seen 3rd place match end regulation with 2-1, 2-2 and 3-3.
Italy/Uruguay over 2.5 1.5u to win 1.17u
final group matches in u20 today and still without a bet. first up is UZB/URU and CRO/NZ. Uruguay need 1 point to assure advancement while UZB and CRO are already through and NZ are out. CRO will want to win with high score to finish first in group while NZ trying to get first ever win in u20 so could be an offensive match. URU/UZB could be a nice friendly draw like with Greece/Paraguay yday with both teams very happy with 1 point.
late matches are ENG/EGY and IRQ/CHL with Iraq and Chile already advanced to KO stage. England and Egypt can both advance but must be aware of Ghana's record which is 3 points and a goal differential of 0 with a 5 scored. England advance with a victory or a 3-3 or higher scoring draw...they are eliminated with a loss but with a nice win coupled with CHL/IRQ draw they will win the group. Egypt are eliminated with loss or draw and must win by 3+ goals to advance. A 3-1 victory would see them even with Ghana and lots drawn for advancement (same for England with 2-2 final). Goals look to be in order in that one
u20's 8-0-5 +5.48 (staked 14.12)
confed cup 6-0-1 +6.85 (staked 9.50)
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YTD 181-13-131 +51.87 (staked 407.16)
thread 42-2-22 +25.44....
.........
Sun 12pm
Italy vs Uruguay (confed cup 3rd place match)
- as with the Toulon 3rd place match and the Mediterranean Games 3rd place match this month I'll jump on the over in the Confederations Cup 3rd place as well. Italy missed a ton of 1H chances vs Spain and then looked brutally tired as Spain punished the back line for the next 75 minutes and it's still wild that match ended 0-0. It will be humid tomorrow in Bahia but only 79 degrees so hopefully will still have the tempo of a normal bronze medal match despite both teams coming here after difficult semi losses. Last 3 confed cups have seen 3rd place match end regulation with 2-1, 2-2 and 3-3.
Italy/Uruguay over 2.5 1.5u to win 1.17u
final group matches in u20 today and still without a bet. first up is UZB/URU and CRO/NZ. Uruguay need 1 point to assure advancement while UZB and CRO are already through and NZ are out. CRO will want to win with high score to finish first in group while NZ trying to get first ever win in u20 so could be an offensive match. URU/UZB could be a nice friendly draw like with Greece/Paraguay yday with both teams very happy with 1 point.
late matches are ENG/EGY and IRQ/CHL with Iraq and Chile already advanced to KO stage. England and Egypt can both advance but must be aware of Ghana's record which is 3 points and a goal differential of 0 with a 5 scored. England advance with a victory or a 3-3 or higher scoring draw...they are eliminated with a loss but with a nice win coupled with CHL/IRQ draw they will win the group. Egypt are eliminated with loss or draw and must win by 3+ goals to advance. A 3-1 victory would see them even with Ghana and lots drawn for advancement (same for England with 2-2 final). Goals look to be in order in that one
today going with a 1u parlay in the u20 WC
Croatia ML to ENG/EGYPT over 2.5 1u to win .95u
Croatia shouldn't have much trouble with NZ who are worst team in tourney. Outscored 5-0 it really should be much worse as shots are 42-8 and shots on goal 22-3 in their two group matches. The -700 being used really just to bump up the over odds in England match
Spoke above about England/Egypt. Egypt's only chance is to win with a wide margin while England pass through with either a win or a high scoring draw so both teams will be on the front foot. Incredibly England now 16 straight without a victory in the u20 world cup and have played two fairly open matches in group play. Shots in the two England matches are 31-29 in their favor with 17-13 on target and those 17 on target were among the highest in this tourney after two matches. Egypt allowed 10 SOG to Chile so I expect at least 7 or 8 against England and England will conceded as usual. They allowed goals in both these world cup matches and in last year's u19s conceded fairly easily.
Croatia ML to ENG/EGYPT over 2.5 1u to win .95u
Croatia shouldn't have much trouble with NZ who are worst team in tourney. Outscored 5-0 it really should be much worse as shots are 42-8 and shots on goal 22-3 in their two group matches. The -700 being used really just to bump up the over odds in England match
Spoke above about England/Egypt. Egypt's only chance is to win with a wide margin while England pass through with either a win or a high scoring draw so both teams will be on the front foot. Incredibly England now 16 straight without a victory in the u20 world cup and have played two fairly open matches in group play. Shots in the two England matches are 31-29 in their favor with 17-13 on target and those 17 on target were among the highest in this tourney after two matches. Egypt allowed 10 SOG to Chile so I expect at least 7 or 8 against England and England will conceded as usual. They allowed goals in both these world cup matches and in last year's u19s conceded fairly easily.
on montreal myself. didn't really care for the 1.65-1.70's but back in the 1.85+ range is a bit of value. colorado are not really a "play against" club in my mind but hard to not play against them away. in last 20 road games they lost 14, won 3 (but two were against CUSA), and drew 3 while Montreal 12-2-1 L15 at home.
no real value on KC even though it's my biggest bet of the night. just think the Zusi signing will wake them the F up into the best team in the east, which they should be (on paper).
watching espn and they were showing highlights of the spain/brazil match and was curious if u played so came to look.. have not been here much since u said my numbers were bad.... was tonight the finals of this tourney? was it a U20? Italy ended on 4 so I am guessing over was 3.5 or 2.5? 4 seems like much but I know little of anything about the game at this level. Was Brazil the fav or spain?
Italy over hit, 1H over push, minn lost for another monster day.... +0.17 off of 3u staked (roll eyes)
will be a really busy midweek with u20's and MLS with bets in MLS posted as soon as 5dimes wakes up (already bet in asia)
YTD 184-14-134 +52.14 (staked 416.16)
thread 44-3-24 +25.71
(1osu, o/u in Italy was 2.5...see post 143. line in bra/spa was dead even as both sides were pk -105 or +180 straight win)
will be a really busy midweek with u20's and MLS with bets in MLS posted as soon as 5dimes wakes up (already bet in asia)
YTD 184-14-134 +52.14 (staked 416.16)
thread 44-3-24 +25.71
(1osu, o/u in Italy was 2.5...see post 143. line in bra/spa was dead even as both sides were pk -105 or +180 straight win)
Tue 11am
Uzbekistan u20 / Greece u20 under 2.5 1u to win .70u
- match in steamy Gaziantep and will be real hot since it's the early game with temps in mid 90's. Typically unders are not good bets in final 16 matches as one goal totally changes the strategy since these are knock out matches. with hot temps and two average offenses I'm hoping for 0-0 HT and then can roll the dice in 2H.
Uzbekistan u20 / Greece u20 under 2.5 1u to win .70u
- match in steamy Gaziantep and will be real hot since it's the early game with temps in mid 90's. Typically unders are not good bets in final 16 matches as one goal totally changes the strategy since these are knock out matches. with hot temps and two average offenses I'm hoping for 0-0 HT and then can roll the dice in 2H.
good luck in the knockout stages of the U20's. Great job all around. I'm looking at Ghana +1/2 against Portugal and also Turkey +.25 vs. France. In MLS, I like the Sounders to hammer DC midweek and also like Rapids at PK vs. NYRB.
Hopefully, we'll see some good betting opportunities in the Gold Cup over the next month. I'm intrigued by the tournament even though there are a number of "B" teams in it.
Hopefully, we'll see some good betting opportunities in the Gold Cup over the next month. I'm intrigued by the tournament even though there are a number of "B" teams in it.
will add tiny bet on Mex u20 over 2.5 goals, .64u to win .50u
Mexico play a strong offense while Spain's strikers are probably the two greatest teen strikers on the planet (jese and deulfeu). overs typically dominate this sector in the tourney. last few years o2.5 in round of 16 went 19-10 (3-5, 5-3, 6-2, 5-3) ... so were 16-8 before last tourney. I expect both to score and Mexico's defense is just too leaky not to concede 2 or more
Mexico play a strong offense while Spain's strikers are probably the two greatest teen strikers on the planet (jese and deulfeu). overs typically dominate this sector in the tourney. last few years o2.5 in round of 16 went 19-10 (3-5, 5-3, 6-2, 5-3) ... so were 16-8 before last tourney. I expect both to score and Mexico's defense is just too leaky not to concede 2 or more
Nigeria u20 vs Uruguay u20
- Nigeria pretty impressive in group stages defeating both So Korea and Cuba while losing narrowly to Portugal in a match they outshot the Portuguese 18-11 (12-7 on goal). Big advantage in rest and travel as they played last group match in Istanbul on Thursday and didn't have to move at all so will have a full 4 days rest in between matches. Uruguay played 600 miles away from Istanbul on Saturday so just 2 days of rest plus travel. They are a very good defensive team but the 48 hours less rest than opponent is a real issue considering 5 players played every minute of those 3 group matches and 10 guys played at least 200 minutes. Getting the night match in cooler temps than Mex/Spa had is an advantage for uruguay but really a tough spot for them...only team that has to play a match against a team with 2 extra days rest.
Nigeria u20 to advance 1u to win 1.15u
- Nigeria pretty impressive in group stages defeating both So Korea and Cuba while losing narrowly to Portugal in a match they outshot the Portuguese 18-11 (12-7 on goal). Big advantage in rest and travel as they played last group match in Istanbul on Thursday and didn't have to move at all so will have a full 4 days rest in between matches. Uruguay played 600 miles away from Istanbul on Saturday so just 2 days of rest plus travel. They are a very good defensive team but the 48 hours less rest than opponent is a real issue considering 5 players played every minute of those 3 group matches and 10 guys played at least 200 minutes. Getting the night match in cooler temps than Mex/Spa had is an advantage for uruguay but really a tough spot for them...only team that has to play a match against a team with 2 extra days rest.
Nigeria u20 to advance 1u to win 1.15u
other 2pm game...
Turkey u20 vs France u20
- hosts not an impressive side at all and at some point will be exposed. Not a huge fan of France but with Pogba back in lineup they are pretty potent. Turkey were outplayed by Australia but hit a couple incredible long goals or wouldn't have made it out of group play. This team didn't have to qualify for WC of course and when you look at u19 results last year to see them lose 3-0 to Greece and 3-1 to Denmark. France an extra day of rest and while I'm not sold on them, especially defensively, I know they are better team than Turkey. Just a small one since I really don't like France's club other than Pogba and Sanogo
France u20 .5u to win .55u
Turkey u20 vs France u20
- hosts not an impressive side at all and at some point will be exposed. Not a huge fan of France but with Pogba back in lineup they are pretty potent. Turkey were outplayed by Australia but hit a couple incredible long goals or wouldn't have made it out of group play. This team didn't have to qualify for WC of course and when you look at u19 results last year to see them lose 3-0 to Greece and 3-1 to Denmark. France an extra day of rest and while I'm not sold on them, especially defensively, I know they are better team than Turkey. Just a small one since I really don't like France's club other than Pogba and Sanogo
France u20 .5u to win .55u
don't really like the u20 today but did take a small parlay with Colombia ML to Croatia u3.5 .75u to win .95u and Ghana to advance just .25u to win .50u
Croatia u20 vs Chile u20
- as mentioned vs England the Chileans now with 12 straight u20 matches that have never surpassed 3 goals so right there is a key trend. Every south amer qualifier against better teams they played ended with 3 or less as well. Croatia 3 games in tourney all with 3 or less goals...their qualifiers last year similarly 0-1 vs France, 1-1 vs England, 3-0 vs Serbia, 2-0 Bosnia, 0-0 Dutch. only the matches vs lightweights like Georgia, Finland, and Moldova saw 4 goals. The u3.5 prop is -315 so using in a double with Colombia
Colombia u20 vs So Korea u20
- Colombia are most impressive team in tourney along with Spain. They won the south american qualifiers, runners-up last month in Toulon, and now flying through u20 cup. They do have one less day off than Korea but last played on Friday so still a solid 4 days to recover. Both had to travel to Trabzon but Colombia played first group match here so familiar with surroundings. Colombia have some finishing difficulties but are far better team
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ghana v Portugal - big odds move to Portugal so slight lean to Ghana +1/2 at "+" money and larger lean on over. Portugal fantastic attack but horrendous defense and Ghana most experienced team in tourney. Any team this bad defensively is on borrowed time in a tourney so you can even take "ghana to advance" as the start of a chase against Portugal who likely would not make it to semis with CRO/CHI on tap. That's what I have done for .25u
Iraq v Paraguay - neither team very good...either of them will be dispatched by Colombia in 4 days
so in addition to MLS today (post 155) I have:
Ghana to advance .25u to win .50u
Croatia u3.5 parlay with Colombia .75u to win .95u
Croatia u20 vs Chile u20
- as mentioned vs England the Chileans now with 12 straight u20 matches that have never surpassed 3 goals so right there is a key trend. Every south amer qualifier against better teams they played ended with 3 or less as well. Croatia 3 games in tourney all with 3 or less goals...their qualifiers last year similarly 0-1 vs France, 1-1 vs England, 3-0 vs Serbia, 2-0 Bosnia, 0-0 Dutch. only the matches vs lightweights like Georgia, Finland, and Moldova saw 4 goals. The u3.5 prop is -315 so using in a double with Colombia
Colombia u20 vs So Korea u20
- Colombia are most impressive team in tourney along with Spain. They won the south american qualifiers, runners-up last month in Toulon, and now flying through u20 cup. They do have one less day off than Korea but last played on Friday so still a solid 4 days to recover. Both had to travel to Trabzon but Colombia played first group match here so familiar with surroundings. Colombia have some finishing difficulties but are far better team
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ghana v Portugal - big odds move to Portugal so slight lean to Ghana +1/2 at "+" money and larger lean on over. Portugal fantastic attack but horrendous defense and Ghana most experienced team in tourney. Any team this bad defensively is on borrowed time in a tourney so you can even take "ghana to advance" as the start of a chase against Portugal who likely would not make it to semis with CRO/CHI on tap. That's what I have done for .25u
Iraq v Paraguay - neither team very good...either of them will be dispatched by Colombia in 4 days
so in addition to MLS today (post 155) I have:
Ghana to advance .25u to win .50u
Croatia u3.5 parlay with Colombia .75u to win .95u
