yes, this playoff season play dogs if
1) play dog if OAK or any NL team that isn't PGH is -107 to -219 favorite (or just call it -110 to -215 so you're not splitting hairs)
2) play UNDER same game if 7.5 or higher total
(i've also played under tonight because of bill miller but that's not a system play)
hopefully will win as in almost every other playoff season but i'll say it once more....VERY different season because all but 1 NL team will fit nearly every game. talking lowest combined BA in the league since 1972. don't think there has ever been a year with more than 6-7 plays ... might get that in a week in 2014
yup opened at pick i thought they would get bet to dog but i was dead wrong there, i would have been on them had they been a dog but not as a fav..
i have been against pitt last two weeks but like them this week in the dog role, i think i convinced myself to bet against michigan every week until they fire Hoke.. program is taking major steps backwards now losing recruits who already committed. I will keep the american football out of your baseball thread,, god luck to you this post season and keep working on those nfl total queries ! you are making the $25 gambler happy
Russ and that Kid on Pittsburgh along with lang.. talk about the stars aligning against us? I didn't like the way they handled the 4th.. should have been a walk to the mound from someone to let the kid regroup. I dont think he exhaled to relax until he gave up the GS, then he gets em to ground out to get out of the inning...
absolutely. you could see it in his body language that he just needed a bit of a breather. to hang that ball in that count was unforgivable but it looked like it calmed him down to have the bases cleared and down 4 runs. i guess it's just the gambling aspect but I've been talking about giants unders vs LHP all season and in a 1-game series you gotta be using Liriano knowing this. Giants, since Mid-April, avg 3.3 rpg vs LH starters...3 point freaking 3 in 55 games. this year vs RHP they're 4.4 rpg in 103 starts. that's huge to have a 1 rpg differential and when you have Liriano who is not only a lefty but won both of his playoff games last year he had to be the starter.
anyway, moving on....
i adjusted the system with some secret nuclear formulas (decreased the BA needed, added opponent starter WHIP component) and dropped the need for a specific line component so i don't have to sit here hitting F5 like some retard each night. Interestingly BOTH giants and nationals cancel each other out in both G1 and G2 (pretty bizarre) and the Cardinals pop for both G1 and G2 as a play against....
only one other time in 6 years has this system have a single game fit both teams (like SF/WAS g1&2) so dropping that game (liriano beat cueto last year) playing against the team on the left has brought a 39-17 SU record (22-12 +108.8% for favorites / 17-5 +170.8% dogs). so might just be best to wait for another dog to fit like KC and PIT or just play all dogs that pop up even if they get canceled in same game.
So won't be anything tonight anyway...will make some decisions on the next few days but I'm leaning toward playing the favs when they show (kershaw, greinke) and dogs even if canceled (peavy, hudson). choices, choices....
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courtesy of http://sdqlconsultancy.com/category/mlb/
weaver starting at home against a team that has won at least 2 straight games = 26-3
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weaver starting at home against a team that has won at least 2 straight games = 26-3
| starter = Jered Weaver and H and o:streak >= 2 and date > 20080701 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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yeah, meals is my over boy especially for day games. geez a 5.5 with meals...(btw i haven't seen him listed yet but i'll take your word for it)
he is also 4-1-1 o/u in his playoff history with all 6 games he called ending with 8+ runs
this will be just the 4th playoff game with a total under 6. others ended 9-0, 11-7, and 4-2 (lincecum vs halladay and vs lee.... kershaw vs wacha)
so, yeah, i'd take a stab at over 5.5 with Meals and would also suggest a "first 5 innings over" bet on him as he's a killer for starters in day games. nothing is a strike to him
HPU = Jerry Meals and H and DAY and date > 20080715
| SU: | 31-24 (0.27, 56.4%) | avg line: -121.9 / 110.1 | on / against: +$347 / -$665 | ROI: +4.8% / -10.6% | ||
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| RL: | 26-28 (-0.09, 48.1%) | avg line: 115.9 / -128.0 | on / against: +$110 / -$343 | ROI: +1.8% / -4.6% | ||
| OU: | 37-12-6 (1.55, 75.5%) | avg total: 8.2 | over / under: +$2,435 / -$2,895 | ROI: +40.7% / -47.3% |
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