MLB systems

rolltide · Sep 5, 2014

waldo in NYY

under 7.5 KC

just waiting on LAD ump for tonight and that will be it

savage55 · Sep 5, 2014

Please tell me the Det game will resume. I went over 8.5 because of FGS after road trip trend. Cmon get this game in

Bigtomdawg · Sep 5, 2014

rolltide said:
waldo in NYY

under 7.5 KC

just waiting on LAD ump for tonight and that will be it

Lazaro Diaz 2014: 19-8, 17-7 o/u (2013: 17-18, 19-13 o/u)
Diaz is 5-1 in games with a total of 7 or lower this season.

rolltide · Sep 6, 2014

playing one of my fav umps today after danley came through again last night. only thing i can count on right now. totally disgusted by losing my WAS/SEA double last night with WAS pen allowing EIGHT fucking runs. seriously how do 7 relief pitchers all with sub 3.50 ERA's give up 8 runs to the Phillies?

passing on E with Feldman pitching. dude can't put 2 decent starts together.... 10-2 o/u after a quality start

one SAT ump:

DET u7.5

....if i decide to run systems i'll post them but i'm so pissed after last night

indiana · Sep 6, 2014

R/T.............BOL with your action today.......indy

rolltide · Sep 7, 2014

SUN

this is the LGS subset of the indians as fav facing a team in terrible form (note RL ROI)

team = Indians and F and o:streak <= -3 and season >= 2008 and LGS

SU:	18-4 (2.59, 81.8%)	avg line: -154.5 / 140.6	on / against: +$1,185 / -$1,225	ROI: +35.4% / -55.7%
RL:	15-7 (1.09, 68.2%)	avg line: 133.1 / -145.5	on / against: +$1,415 / -$1,576	ROI: +62.1% / -47.9%
OU:	12-8-2 (0.57, 60.0%)	avg total: 8.3	over / under: +$315 / -$490	ROI: +12.9% / -20.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.7	9.2	0.5	3.7	7.2	10.2	5.5	7.2
Opp	3.1	8.0	0.9	3.0	8.7	9.0	6.8	7.1

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 07, 2014		Sun	home	Indians	Carlos Carrasco - R	White Sox	Scott Carroll - R									-210	8.0

UNDER when both starters bad in last h2h meeting but away pitcher off quality start

S:SRA >= 4 and ... os:QS and C and date > 20120701

SU:	14-20 (-0.68, 41.2%)	avg line: 124.1 / -134.5	on / against: -$389 / +$246	ROI: -11.4% / +5.4%
RL:	17-17 (0.74, 50.0%)	avg line: -135.1 / 123.4	on / against: -$470 / +$310	ROI: -10.1% / +8.7%
OU:	7-27-0 (-0.94, 20.6%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$2,220 / +$1,935	ROI: -60.1% / +51.1%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.3	7.8	0.5	2.9	7.8	9.4	5.7	6.9
Opp	3.9	8.4	0.4	2.8	7.1	9.6	4.3	6.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 07, 2014		Sun	home	Rays	Jeremy Hellickson - R	Orioles	Bud Norris - R									100	7.5

series game 3 under when teams used a ton of pitchers in game 2

SG = 3 and p

U + op

U > 13 .... and STDSERA < 7.5 and o:STDSERA < 7.5 and game number > 12 and H

SU:	51-41 (0.64, 55.4%)	avg line: -122.8 / 110.2	on / against: +$194 / -$644	ROI: +1.6% / -6.2%
RL:	42-36 (0.37, 53.8%)	avg line: 118.3 / -132.9	on / against: +$1,372 / -$1,760	ROI: +15.4% / -15.7%
OU:	26-62-4 (-1.24, 29.5%)	avg total: 8.6	over / under: -$4,080 / +$3,310	ROI: -40.9% / +32.2%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.0	8.4	0.5	3.2	6.9	10.3	7.4	7.2
Opp	3.3	7.8	0.7	3.3	7.2	9.0	7.7	7.2

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 07, 2014		Sun	home	Rockies	Franklin Morales - L	Padres	Tyson Ross - R									110	9.5

UNDER after extra inning high scoring home win that was within 5 runs all game

SG > 2 and p:W and p:X and p:runs + op:runs >= 12 and ...

SU:	84-77 (0.26, 52.2%)	avg line: -109.3 / -104.0	on / against: +$178 / -$1,160	ROI: +0.9% / -5.8%
RL:	51-54 (0.11, 48.6%)	avg line: -107.4 / -107.0	on / against: -$687 / +$107	ROI: -5.0% / +0.8%
OU:	57-99-5 (-0.11, 36.5%)	avg total: 8.8	over / under: -$5,185 / +$3,655	ROI: -29.3% / +20.6%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.5	8.5	0.6	3.3	6.9	9.9	8.2	6.8
Opp	4.2	8.9	0.6	3.2	7.0	10.1	8.2	7.3

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 07, 2014		Sun	home	Rockies	Franklin Morales - L	Padres	Tyson Ross - R									110	9.5

rolltide · Sep 8, 2014

2-1 sun but another bullpen meltdown. TB up 4-2 in 9th...a HBP and two walks to load bases then clear them with a triple. that's solid

MON:

PLAY ON favs, non-HR hitting team, off a bunch of runs vs opponent off a loss (on STL - cancels below)

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and ... and op:L

SU:	231-120 (1.13, 65.8%)	avg line: -121.1 / 111.1	on / against: +$8,753 / -$10,138	ROI: +20.6% / -28.4%
RL:	188-161 (0.20, 53.9%)	avg line: 130.3 / -144.2	on / against: +$8,821 / -$11,114	ROI: +21.7% / -20.2%
OU:	183-151-15 (0.62, 54.8%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: +$1,880 / -$4,875	ROI: +4.9% / -12.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.9	9.2	0.6	3.2	6.9	9.7	5.5	7.0
Opp	3.8	8.3	0.7	3.0	7.5	9.9	5.4	7.0

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 08, 2014		Mon	away	Cardinals	Shelby Miller - R	Reds	Dylan Axelrod - R									-125	8.0

play ON run line or SU FGS big fav AL vs pitcher off 1 good start (on OAK -1.5)

FGS and 0.215 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and ... and p:L

SU:	36-11 (1.66, 76.6%)	avg line: -158.1 / 146.0	on / against: +$1,995 / -$2,115	ROI: +26.9% / -45.0%
RL:	24-18 (-0.05, 57.1%)	avg line: 136.0 / -148.0	on / against: +$1,339 / -$1,626	ROI: +31.9% / -26.0%
OU:	22-22-3 (0.49, 50.0%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$135 / -$235	ROI: -2.7% / -4.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.1	9.5	0.7	3.1	6.6	9.7	6.5	6.8
Opp	3.5	8.1	0.8	2.5	8.0	8.9	6.7	6.6

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 08, 2014		Mon	away	Athletics	Sonny Gray - R	White Sox	Hector Noesi - R									-170	8.0

play ON home dog with starter that K's a lot of hitters (on CIN)

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD ... and STDSERA > 1.95

SU:	247-228 (-0.11, 52.0%)	avg line: 118.8 / -129.2	on / against: +$6,062 / -$8,611	ROI: +12.8% / -14.0%
RL:	300-172 (1.37, 63.6%)	avg line: -143.7 / 132.3	on / against: +$5,582 / -$7,586	ROI: +8.2% / -15.8%
OU:	218-234-20 (0.42, 48.2%)	avg total: 7.7	over / under: -$3,495 / -$880	ROI: -6.8% / -1.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.0	8.3	0.6	3.0	7.8	9.8	6.4	6.7
Opp	4.1	8.6	0.6	3.3	8.1	9.2	5.8	7.1

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 08, 2014		Mon	home	Reds	Dylan Axelrod - R	Cardinals	Shelby Miller - R									115	8.0

should be around for any FGS umps...

rolltide · Sep 8, 2014

and one COL team system FGS away to non-div team after home stand avg 2.8 rpg

team = Rockies and C and p:H ... and not DIV

SU:	4-19 (-1.78, 17.4%)	avg line: 138.9 / -153.0	on / against: -$1,402 / +$1,327	ROI: -59.2% / +37.2%
RL:	9-14 (-0.54, 39.1%)	avg line: -149.0 / 136.3	on / against: -$1,135 / +$982	ROI: -32.7% / +40.7%
OU:	6-16-1 (-0.54, 27.3%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: -$1,135 / +$950	ROI: -45.0% / +37.3%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	2.8	7.5	0.7	2.4	8.4	8.5	5.1	6.1
Opp	4.6	8.5	0.7	3.3	8.4	9.7	5.7	6.9

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 08, 2014		Mon	away	Rockies	Jordan Lyles - R	Mets	Jon Niese - L									140	7.0

rolltide · Sep 8, 2014

ump play

BOS u9

rolltide · Sep 8, 2014

rolltide said:
and one COL team system FGS away to non-div team after home stand avg 2.8 rpg

reran this one to just pull out NL east. so after long home stand then traveling all the way east for a game...= 1-11

team = Rockies and C and p:H and pp:H and ... and o:division = NL East

SU:	1-11 (-2.08, 8.3%)	avg line: 132.9 / -146.8	on / against: -$967 / +$917	ROI: -76.4% / +50.9%
RL:	6-6 (-1.08, 50.0%)	avg line: -144.2 / 131.2	on / against: -$206 / +$160	ROI: -11.6% / +12.3%
OU:	6-6-0 (0.62, 50.0%)	avg total: 7.8	over / under: -$75 / -$45	ROI: -5.6% / -3.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.2	6.4	0.8	2.5	9.2	9.2	5.8	4.9
Opp	5.2	9.2	0.5	4.1	8.3	8.5	6.8	7.8

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 08, 2014		Mon	away	Rockies	Jordan Lyles - R	Mets	Jon Niese - L									140	7.0

rolltide · Sep 9, 2014

2-1 last night. no umps for Tue unless FGS appears

dbase servers slow as hell again so nothing until they get cleaned up. they really have to do something about this...

rolltide · Sep 9, 2014

play UNDER recent bad hitting team vs recent bad hitting team

season >= 2009 and 4 > SG > 1 .... op:runs + opp:runs <= 7

SU:	47-77 (-0.51, 37.9%)	avg line: 120.0 / -132.7	on / against: -$2,643 / +$1,991	ROI: -19.8% / +11.7%
RL:	66-58 (0.22, 53.2%)	avg line: -140.1 / 127.0	on / against: -$1,043 / +$478	ROI: -5.6% / +3.4%
OU:	38-78-8 (-0.75, 32.8%)	avg total: 7.9	over / under: -$4,665 / +$3,620	ROI: -34.5% / +26.3%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.3	7.8	0.6	2.7	7.4	9.2	6.2	6.4
Opp	3.8	8.2	0.4	2.9	6.7	10.1	6.3	6.8

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 09, 2014		Tue	away	Braves	Ervin Santana - R	Nationals	Jordan Zimmermann - R									135	7.0

PLAY ON small fav, low HR hitting team, off 8+ runs (on LAD)

tA(HR) <= 0.911 ... and date > 20100901

SU:	268-149 (1.03, 64.3%)	avg line: -121.1 / 111.1	on / against: +$9,025 / -$10,720	ROI: +17.9% / -25.3%
OU:	213-186-16 (0.56, 53.4%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: +$1,050 / -$4,680	ROI: +2.3% / -10.2%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.8	9.1	0.6	3.2	6.8	9.7	5.4	7.0
Opp	3.8	8.3	0.6	2.9	7.5	9.8	5.5	7.0

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 09, 2014		Tue	home	Dodgers	Roberto Hernandez - R	Padres	Andrew Cashner - R									-125	7.0

will play the under...not sure about LAD as Cashner absolutely dominates LAD but padres won't hit for him.

starter = Andrew Cashner and o:team = Dodgers

SU:	2-3 (-0.20, 40.0%)	avg line: 107.3 / -117.3	on / against: -$155 / +$132	ROI: -27.6% / +21.7%
RL:	3-2 (0.10, 60.0%)	avg line: -114.2 / 100.5	on / against: +$100 / -$100	ROI: +15.2% / -14.7%
OU:	0-5-0 (-3.60, 0.0%)	avg total: 7.0	over / under: -$540 / +$500	ROI: -100.0% / +89.3%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	1.6	6.4	0.4	2.8	9.0	11.6	4.0	6.8
Opp	1.8	8.0	0.8	2.0	9.6	10.4	4.2	7.2

indiana · Sep 9, 2014

R/T..........On both unders..........BOL with your action..........indy

rolltide · Sep 9, 2014

indiana said:
R/T..........On both unders..........BOL with your action..........indy

only one under i'm on ... atlanta

with my quote about the under i meant that of those two plays I'm on the under but passing LAD. sorry for confusion

rolltide · Sep 10, 2014

no chance with ATL u last night...

two umps normally would be KC u, NYM u but inclined to pass both today.

SG2 over after breaking a losing streak vs team and two avg pitchers (MIN o)

total > 7 and SG = 2 and ... STDSERA + o:STDSERA > 7.22

SU:	24-24 (-1.58, 50.0%)	avg line: 134.2 / -150.3	on / against: +$450 / -$675	ROI: +8.9% / -9.1%
RL:	18-14 (-0.81, 56.2%)	avg line: -106.4 / -106.0	on / against: +$414 / -$598	ROI: +10.6% / -15.2%
OU:	39-7-2 (2.11, 84.8%)	avg total: 8.8	over / under: +$3,130 / -$3,510	ROI: +58.5% / -67.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.7	9.1	0.8	3.3	6.9	10.2	8.4	7.1
Opp	6.3	10.6	0.7	3.5	6.7	10.1	8.0	7.4

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Sep 10, 2014		Wed	away	Twins	Kyle Gibson - R	Indians	TJ House - L									135	8.0

savage55 · Sep 10, 2014

Cle/Minny game postponed I guess. I was looking forward to that Over

rolltide · Sep 11, 2014

savage55 said:
Cle/Minny game postponed I guess. I was looking forward to that Over

me too. one of my fav systems and caught the 8...moved to 8.5 around noon yesterday

olim · Sep 11, 2014

Appreciate your thorough analysis. Always read your threads. Would it be to much to ask that you summarize your plays prior to the game so that one can easily see the play without a lot of the noise. Not trying to take away from your hard work rather see the potential plays in list order for the people that are frantically trying to get something in before game time. Thanks for your work!

Bourn · Sep 11, 2014

olim said:
Appreciate your thorough analysis. Always read your threads. Would it be to much to ask that you summarize your plays prior to the game so that one can easily see the play without a lot of the noise. Not trying to take away from your hard work rather see the potential plays in list order for the people that are frantically trying to get something in before game time. Thanks for your work!

No soup for you!! Next!!

rolltide · Sep 11, 2014

just FYI the cle/min SG2 (game 1) is NOT a fit today as the combined ERA's are too low.

passed two umps yesterday in kc and nym which couldn't have been easier wins. goddamn.

only ump today is LAA u9.5

randazzo doing SF game and he's been unreal unders this year but has no actual history of being an under ump so i've not jumped aboard, now will i do so today

systems later...running to 12-2 meeting so try to catch some later games

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