MLB systems

[rolltide]

holding off on ATL o but going back to the well with SD u6.5 ... so 3 TUE ump plays


in addition to E at HP you also have SD anemic offense vs LHP and Despy who has been great at home. Here is SD vs LHP in past calendar year

team = Padres and o:STL and date > 20130830
SU: 18-19 (0.22, 48.6%) avg line: 118.6 / -129.9 on / against: +$115 / -$264 ROI: +2.9% / -5.2% RL: 22-15 (0.66, 59.5%) avg line: -108.3 / -104.9 on / against: +$659 / -$835 ROI: +13.2% / -17.5% OU: 6-28-3 (-1.81, 17.6%) avg total: 7.3 over / under: -$2,435 / +$2,125 ROI: -61.3% / +50.7% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 2.9 6.7 0.6 2.6 8.5 9.7 4.7 5.9 Opp 2.6 7.0 0.3 3.1 8.4 9.6 3.9 6.9 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 02, 2014 Tue home Padres Odrisamer Despaigne - R Diamondbacks Wade Miley - L -118 6.5 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[rolltide]

finally, here are your FGS team trends to consider for today:

NYY 60-34-7 o/u FGS home after road trip
NYY 22-8 SU FGS home after trip including 11-2 with rest
TOR 16-31-3 o/u FGS road after home stand in this spot
LAA 23-8-2 o/u FGS road after home stand

 

[indiana]

R/T................good luck with your action today............indy

 

[PatsFanatic]

Nice easy over in Miami. Love the easy ones.

 

[drpugilist]

hey rt, do you remember anything over the past couple of yrs from the old pops threads regarding playing thurs nt cfb totals?

 

[PatsFanatic]

Damn, all your posts from yesterday GONE!

 

[rolltide]

hey rt, do you remember anything over the past couple of yrs from the old pops threads regarding playing thurs nt cfb totals?

no but very easy for me to query and see if you can find something...here it is by season since the dbase start tracking totals:


day = Thursday and H and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %over)	SDQL
12	8-4-0 (-2.38, 66.7%)	-19.2	3-9-0 (-2.88, 25.0%)	55.9	10-2-0 (16.83, 83.3%)	season = 2014
49	26-23-0 (-0.03, 53.1%)	-6.7	19-21-0 (-0.12, 47.5%)	57.4	30-19-0 (6.67, 61.2%)	season = 2013
36	18-18-0 (-0.11, 50.0%)	-2.7	12-17-0 (-2.12, 41.4%)	53.9	17-19-0 (2.61, 47.2%)	season = 2012
37	17-20-0 (0.73, 45.9%)	-6.7	15-13-1 (3.24, 53.6%)	55.7	21-16-0 (7.43, 56.8%)	season = 2011
38	18-18-2 (-0.59, 50.0%)	-11.9	18-19-0 (-2.04, 48.6%)	53.1	26-12-0 (11.29, 68.4%)	season = 2010
28	10-16-0 (-1.15, 38.5%)	-5.3	9-14-1 (-5.77, 39.1%)	52.2	17-11-0 (4.39, 60.7%)	season = 2009
37	23-10-1 (4.16, 69.7%)	-6.8	11-17-1 (-1.07, 39.3%)	49.4	29-8-0 (12.86, 78.4%)	season = 2008
32	13-14-2 (-1.10, 48.1%)	-6.6	13-11-1 (-0.84, 54.2%)	52.3	21-11-0 (7.25, 65.6%)	season = 2007
39	18-10-2 (3.48, 64.3%)	-3.0	15-15-0 (-1.75, 50.0%)	46.7	31-8-0 (12.44, 79.5%)	season = 2006

<caption>
</caption> <thead>
</thead> <tbody role="alert">
</tbody>

 

[rolltide]

from there i can start fucking around with things. here is thursday games with totals under 46 (heavy home covers and unders)

day = Thursday and H and season > 2005 and total < 46

SU:	30-11-0 (6.27, 73.2%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	27-12-2 (4.55, 69.2%)	avg line: -1.7	+6: 31-9-1 (77.5%)	-6: 21-20-0 (51.2%)	+10: 34-7-0 (82.9%)	-10: 14-27-0 (34.1%)
O/U:	11-30-0 (-6.39, 26.8%)	avg total: 42.4	+6: 7-34-0 (17.1%)	-6: 15-24-2 (38.5%)	+10: 6-35-0 (14.6%)	-10: 22-19-0 (53.7%)

<tbody>
</tbody>

then home favs with total <46

day = Thursday and H and season > 2005 and F and total < 46

SU:	19-7-0 (7.50, 73.1%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	13-11-2 (0.58, 54.2%)	avg line: -6.9	+6: 17-8-1 (68.0%)	-6: 9-17-0 (34.6%)	+10: 19-7-0 (73.1%)	-10: 7-19-0 (26.9%)
O/U:	5-21-0 (-7.85, 19.2%)	avg total: 42.7	+6: 5-21-0 (19.2%)	-6: 7-17-2 (29.2%)	+10: 4-22-0 (15.4%)	-10: 12-14-0 (46.2%)

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[rolltide]

here are thu home favs of -4 to -8

day = Thursday and H and season > 2005 and -3.5 > line > -8.5

SU:	35-16-0 (6.57, 68.6%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	24-25-2 (0.54, 49.0%)	avg line: -6.0	+6: 35-16-0 (68.6%)	-6: 19-32-0 (37.3%)	+10: 40-11-0 (78.4%)	-10: 14-36-1 (28.0%)
O/U:	16-30-0 (-5.66, 34.8%)	avg total: 51.5	+6: 11-35-0 (23.9%)	-6: 24-21-1 (53.3%)	+10: 6-40-0 (13.0%)	-10: 28-17-1 (62.2%)

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[rolltide]

btw, this should really be asked in my cfb section, of course....in case others are interested

anyway...last one. home dogs on a thursday.

day = Thursday and HD and date > 20091005

SU:	13-49-0 (-10.85, 21.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	29-33-0 (-1.34, 46.8%)	avg line: 9.5	+6: 39-23-0 (62.9%)	-6: 21-41-0 (33.9%)	+10: 42-19-1 (68.9%)	-10: 14-48-0 (22.6%)

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[rolltide]

now back to MLB ... no umps THU

THU systems


under 1-run win when opposing starter went 8+

p:margin = 1 and po:SIP >= 8 ... and date > 20090601
SU: 70-85 (-0.37, 45.2%) avg line: -100.2 / -110.7 on / against: -$1,609 / +$813 ROI: -9.0% / +4.3% RL: 76-78 (-0.12, 49.4%) avg line: -115.0 / 101.8 on / against: -$1,455 / +$750 ROI: -7.0% / +3.9% OU: 49-101-5 (-0.46, 32.7%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$6,120 / +$4,630 ROI: -36.2% / +26.9% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.6 8.1 0.6 3.0 7.2 9.4 6.5 6.8 Opp 4.0 8.6 0.5 2.9 7.2 9.9 6.3 6.8 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 04, 2014 Thu away Mariners Roenis Elias - L Rangers Robbie Ross - L -121 8.5 <caption> </caption> <thead> </thead> <tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

same as yesterday's IL system on Baltimore RL...

o:STDSERA > 0.00 and -145 > line >= -185 ... and op:runs <= 10 and not C
SU: 31-10 (2.20, 75.6%) avg line: -163.2 / 153.1 on / against: +$1,485 / -$1,585 ROI: +22.2% / -38.7% RL: 22-17 (0.63, 56.4%) avg line: 130.0 / -141.1 on / against: +$1,199 / -$1,447 ROI: +30.7% / -26.3% OU: 20-17-4 (1.77, 54.1%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$185 / -$515 ROI: +4.2% / -11.3% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 6.0 9.9 0.5 3.6 6.1 9.4 6.9 7.1 Opp 3.8 8.0 0.6 2.8 8.7 9.3 6.6 6.7 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 04, 2014 Thu home Orioles Chris Tillman - R Reds Mike Leake - R -155 7.5 Sep 03, 2014 box Wed home Orioles Miguel Gonzalez - R Reds Dylan Axelrod - R 6-0 6 W -2.0 U 7-4 1-0 6-0 -160 8.0 9 <caption> </caption> <thead> </thead> <tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

PLAY ON home dog with starter that K's a lot of hitters (on CLE but i'm not opposing Max)

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD... and STDSERA > 1.95
SU: 247-226 (-0.08, 52.2%) avg line: 118.8 / -129.1 on / against: +$6,262 / -$8,811 ROI: +13.2% / -14.4% RL: 300-170 (1.41, 63.8%) avg line: -143.7 / 132.3 on / against: +$5,843 / -$7,827 ROI: +8.6% / -16.4% OU: 216-234-20 (0.39, 48.0%) avg total: 7.7 over / under: -$3,695 / -$670 ROI: -7.3% / -1.3% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 4.0 8.3 0.6 3.0 7.8 9.8 6.4 6.7 Opp 4.1 8.6 0.6 3.2 8.1 9.2 5.8 7.1 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 04, 2014 Thu home Indians Trevor Bauer - R Tigers Max Scherzer - R 125 7.5 <caption> </caption> <thead> </thead> <tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

quiet day

 

[rolltide]

one FRI ump:
STL u8 -105

....several waldos in place for FGS

 

[rolltide]

FRI systems:

PLAY ON home team in FGS when both teams off blowout losses (best if one team with rest, like today) - ON CLE

FGS and p:margin <= -4 and op:margin <= -4 and H ...
SU: 56-28 (1.33, 66.7%) avg line: -109.0 / -101.0 on / against: +$2,680 / -$3,089 ROI: +27.1% / -32.8% RL: 55-29 (1.08, 65.5%) avg line: 119.9 / -133.2 on / against: +$4,081 / -$4,513 ROI: +41.2% / -36.6% OU: 35-42-7 (0.15, 45.5%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$1,060 / +$350 ROI: -11.5% / +3.8% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 4.8 8.6 0.5 3.1 7.0 10.2 5.3 6.4 Opp 3.4 8.1 0.7 2.7 7.7 9.5 5.0 6.7 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 05, 2014 Fri home Indians TJ House - L White Sox Chris Sale - L 127 7.0 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

oppose avg-hitting AL home dogs after allowing 7+ (tough to put CLE in this since they only allowed 4 before the 11th but they qualify as a team to oppose)

HD and league = AL ... and po:runs >= 7 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2
SU: 82-181 (-1.70, 31.2%) avg line: 128.5 / -139.9 on / against: -$7,795 / +$6,860 ROI: -29.6% / +18.7% RL: 110-120 (-0.16, 47.8%) avg line: -133.8 / 122.1 on / against: -$5,048 / +$3,654 ROI: -16.1% / +15.4% OU: 120-129-14 (0.41, 48.2%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$2,200 / -$285 ROI: -7.6% / -1.0% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.5 8.1 0.7 2.8 7.6 10.3 7.5 6.7 Opp 5.2 9.7 0.5 3.4 6.8 9.7 6.7 7.3 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 05, 2014 Fri home Indians TJ House - L White Sox Chris Sale - L 127 7.0 Sep 05, 2014 Fri home Rangers Scott Baker - R Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma - R 145 8.5 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

PLAY UNDER light-HR hitting big favs off huge run output (SEA U...SEA not a terrible play either)

tA(HR) <= 0.9068 ... and date > 20130426
SU: 56-26 (1.00, 68.3%) avg line: -174.8 / 160.2 on / against: +$1,182 / -$1,515 ROI: +8.2% / -18.5% RL: 35-47 (-0.50, 42.7%) avg line: 120.2 / -130.5 on / against: -$435 / +$59 ROI: -5.2% / +0.5% OU: 21-61-0 (-1.26, 25.6%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: -$4,580 / +$3,765 ROI: -51.0% / +41.4% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.8 8.2 0.5 3.4 6.4 9.2 4.6 7.3 Opp 2.8 7.3 0.7 2.6 8.7 9.6 4.7 6.5 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 05, 2014 Fri away Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma - R Rangers Scott Baker - R -155 8.5 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

avoid bad hitting NL big road dogs vs great pitcher...19-3 L22 (on WAS)

tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.259 and league = NL and AD ... and 210 > line > 160 ..
SU: 32-93 (-1.50, 25.6%) avg line: 180.3 / -204.6 on / against: -$3,547 / +$2,762 ROI: -28.4% / +10.8% RL: 67-51 (-0.01, 56.8%) avg line: -122.2 / 110.3 on / against: +$544 / -$1,171 ROI: +3.8% / -9.7% OU: 57-61-7 (0.20, 48.3%) avg total: 7.7 over / under: -$830 / -$200 ROI: -6.1% / -1.4% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.2 7.9 0.5 2.6 8.6 9.9 6.8 6.7 Opp 4.7 9.1 0.5 3.7 6.5 10.3 6.5 7.4 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 05, 2014 Fri away Phillies Jerome Williams - R Nationals Stephen Strasburg - R 200 7.0 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

team FGS to keep in mind:

DET 28-12-1 o/u FGS after road trip (19-6-0 o/u no rest)
DET 17-5 SU (but just 7-5 L12) as home fav FGS after road trip
BOS 27-10-1 o/u FGS home after road trip (11-3 o/u with 1 day rest)

 

[drpugilist]

btw, this should really be asked in my cfb section, of course....in case others are interested

anyway...last one. home dogs on a thursday.

day = Thursday and HD and date > 20091005

SU:	13-49-0 (-10.85, 21.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	29-33-0 (-1.34, 46.8%)	avg line: 9.5	+6: 39-23-0 (62.9%)	-6: 21-41-0 (33.9%)	+10: 42-19-1 (68.9%)	-10: 14-48-0 (22.6%)

<tbody>
</tbody>

sorry, i didnt know you had started a cfb thread. thanks for the info.

 

[Tesla]

FRI systems:

PLAY ON home team in FGS when both teams off blowout losses (best if one team with rest, like today) - ON CLE

FGS and p:margin <= -4 and op:margin <= -4 and H ...
SU: 56-28 (1.33, 66.7%) avg line: -109.0 / -101.0 on / against: +$2,680 / -$3,089 ROI: +27.1% / -32.8% RL: 55-29 (1.08, 65.5%) avg line: 119.9 / -133.2 on / against: +$4,081 / -$4,513 ROI: +41.2% / -36.6% OU: 35-42-7 (0.15, 45.5%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$1,060 / +$350 ROI: -11.5% / +3.8% <tbody> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

Wait, 55 out of the 56 winners in this situation have won by 2 or more runs? I understand this is copied and pasted from the database site you use, but wow that seems high....just making sure I'm not missing something.

 

[AjGreen]

Tesla. Sometimes like in the case of Cleveland today, the runline is +1.5 not minus, as they are the underdogs.

 

[rolltide]

FRI systems:

PLAY ON home team in FGS when both teams off blowout losses (best if one team with rest, like today) - ON CLE

<tbody>
</tbody>

Wait, 55 out of the 56 winners in this situation have won by 2 or more runs? I understand this is copied and pasted from the database site you use, but wow that seems high....just making sure I'm not missing something.

no

for dogs, like CLE, the RL is +1.5 ... for favs the RL is -1.5

best plays are dogs SU, favs RL (see ROI)

here is the breakdown:

dogs:

SU:	19-10 (1.00, 65.5%)	avg line: 123.7 / -133.7	on / against: +$1,308 / -$1,498	ROI: +45.1% / -38.7%
RL:	24-5 (2.50, 82.8%)	avg line: -137.8 / 126.9	on / against: +$1,748 / -$1,814	ROI: +43.7% / -62.2%

<tbody>
</tbody>

favs

SU:	37-18 (1.51, 67.3%)	avg line: -126.9 / 116.9	on / against: +$1,372 / -$1,591	ROI: +19.7% / -28.7%
RL:	31-24 (0.34, 56.4%)	avg line: 150.3 / -164.9	on / against: +$2,333 / -$2,699	ROI: +39.4% / -28.7%

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Tesla]

Oh, duh...had a feeling I was missing something. Thanks.

 

[PistolWhip]

Just curious what goes into your umpire selections. I have J BAKER as the home palate umpire today for the STL/MIL game who is 11-12 O/U on the year.

 

[rolltide]

Just curious what goes into your umpire selections. I have J BAKER as the home palate umpire today for the STL/MIL game who is 11-12 O/U on the year.

i track them series game #, what they do by league, how they are vs LHP or RHP, ERA's of starters they're calling, total in game, and always long-term & never just 1 season unless it's a new ump i've seen on tv...


he's in a nice spot for me tonight but even that is just 8-9 o/u this year but 3 straight unders. there's a nice total spot for him that is 5-21-1 o/u in his history and that fits tonight too....that subset is 3-6 o/u in 2014 with 4 straight unders

HPU = Jordan Baker and H and ....
SU: 32-23 (0.93, 58.2%) avg line: -129.3 / 115.7 on / against: +$450 / -$659 ROI: +5.9% / -10.5% RL: 31-24 (0.57, 56.4%) avg line: 112.2 / -123.4 on / against: +$1,118 / -$1,379 ROI: +17.8% / -19.0% OU: 16-37-2 (-0.59, 30.2%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$2,465 / +$1,950 ROI: -40.7% / +32.2% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 4.2 8.8 0.5 2.9 7.4 10.1 5.1 6.8 Opp 3.3 7.7 0.6 3.0 7.8 9.2 4.6 6.8 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Sep 05, 2014 Fri home Brewers Mike Fiers - R Cardinals John Lackey - R -120 8.0 <tbody> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>