MLB system (My contribution to therx)

H!Tm@n · Jul 30, 2008

Waw Great job m8 u rulezz !! i started following u for like 3-4 days and u doing a great work so i cant wait to see your next picks

parlayallday · Jul 30, 2008

I never did before but this seems to be a winner so far.

H!Tm@n · Jul 30, 2008

Waw great job m8 u rulezz !!
I started following like 3-4 days and i really like your system !! so i cant wait to see your next picks héhé

parlayallday · Jul 30, 2008

Novato,

Anything for todays early games?

H!Tm@n · Jul 30, 2008

Great job Novato !!

H!Tm@n · Jul 30, 2008

Waw great job m8!!!
i started following like 3-4 days and i really like your system so i cant wait to see your picks for today héhé

BetitBig · Jul 30, 2008

Online poker has fell threw the cracks for me and too many river beats to keep putting my money on the line vs a rigged system....

Im putting my bank roll at 750$ for this system, I should be safe with 50$ bets lets hope for a good start today with this system!!!!!

Im going to follow your played nov. and post into my daily plays to keep try of myself.. Good luck... looking forward to todays bets!!!

topspinelite · Jul 30, 2008

hey Novato,

The essence of your system is that in a division series, the road team does not get swept. Along this logic, wouldn't it seem right to assume that the Home team does not get swept at home as well?

There are at least two possible sweeps comming up today (7/30) in divisional series.
KC is 2-0 over Oak
Balt is 2-0 over NYY

I am wondering if you ever looked into home teams.

Your system seems to work well, teams avoiding sweep. I am gonna put small bets on the NYY and A's thinking that they'll come away with at least 1 win

topspinelite · Jul 30, 2008

Bet it Big said:
Online poker has fell threw the cracks for me and too many river beats to keep putting my money on the line vs a rigged system....

Im putting my bank roll at 750$ for this system, I should be safe with 50$ bets lets hope for a good start today with this system!!!!!

Im going to follow your played nov. and post into my daily plays to keep try of myself.. Good luck... looking forward to todays bets!!!

hey man. I think you'll be okay with 50$ bets but thats cutting it pretty close. Perhaps scale down your bets a bit to make sure you have enough bankroll to follow all the plays.

BetitBig · Jul 30, 2008

Alright, ill sclae it down to 30$... can get almost double bets that way and have fun

noovvvv any plays w/ first game? -- Im trying to figure out the system i believe your saying to take the road team vs division opp. and use the r/l if there fav / dog?

war1000 · Jul 30, 2008

I don't know the calculations but can someone please tell me how much my bets should be if i only have $400 bankroll left?

Novato · Jul 30, 2008

CTP said:
Sorry I do not have the same data from last year as no M/L. I think this will help make your decision for the run line at for the when the visitor is the dog.

Last year from last week of July to end of season.

There were 33 games where the visitor won by 1 run and 75 where the visitor lost by 1 run.

I am convinced that paying the extra juice for the +1.5 runs is definitely worth the money. I would guess that the -1.5 for the visitor when the favorite is also the right choice.

For the data from this year there were only 4 games where the visitor was -180 or higher. One needs to make a decision as to where to make the cut off for the amount of money one has to lay.

If you look back 2 days you will see that by laying the -1.5 has gotten you plus money with Sea, Det and the NYM and a late inning run by Wash cost plus money on Philly.

To me the -1.5 run makes sense as well.

I did my research for the last couple of years and I found that we can bet Run Lines -1.5 and split the bets and have a little bit more juice that's why I'm testing this variation for this year, thanks for give me the reason CTP!! :103631605

Novato · Jul 30, 2008

parlayallday said:
I have been following Novato now for a little over a week! I am +$2600.00 thank you sir!ope:

WOW!!! parlayallday did you parlay my plays or did you bet to win series??

How much are you betting per series to have that + $2600.

I won $100 in a day and I get so excited!! imaging $2600 :s

Novato · Jul 30, 2008

boombaby said:
Novato Quick question. Do you have a system for football?

I do have a system for football, NBA and MLB but this is one of my favorites and more productive system :toast:

boombaby · Jul 30, 2008

Novato What are your plays today?

Novato · Jul 30, 2008

Bet it Big said:
Online poker has fell threw the cracks for me and too many river beats to keep putting my money on the line vs a rigged system....

Im putting my bank roll at 750$ for this system, I should be safe with 50$ bets lets hope for a good start today with this system!!!!!

Im going to follow your played nov. and post into my daily plays to keep try of myself.. Good luck... looking forward to todays bets!!!

If you have $750 dlls and you are going to bet $50 per series you will win between $45 - $25 but remember that we have 7-10 series starting the same day, just be safe and take in consideration that you will need to have enough money to cover "B" and "C" games.
Good luck and enjoy the ride!!

Novato · Jul 30, 2008

topspinelite said:
hey Novato,

The essence of your system is that in a division series, the road team does not get swept. Along this logic, wouldn't it seem right to assume that the Home team does not get swept at home as well?

There are at least two possible sweeps comming up today (7/30) in divisional series.
KC is 2-0 over Oak
Balt is 2-0 over NYY

I am wondering if you ever looked into home teams.

Your system seems to work well, teams avoiding sweep. I am gonna put small bets on the NYY and A's thinking that they'll come away with at least 1 win

Of course I looked into home teams, that's why I found out that betting the visitors or road teams is the best choice for different reasons:
1.- Home teams are sometimes more favorite
2.- Home teams are favorites the three games of the series and the lost
3.- Home teams like to have some rest and they don't fight for that win
4.- and a lot of more things.

Now about the KC vs OAK these two teams are not divisional teams and about the NYY vs BAL maybe you could win this one with NY Yankees but if you do your research for the last years you will found out that home teams loose more swepts at home than Road teams.
My suggestion is ..... Do not bet the NY Y and Stick with the plan :lol:

Novato · Jul 30, 2008

topspinelite said:
hey man. I think you'll be okay with 50$ bets but thats cutting it pretty close. Perhaps scale down your bets a bit to make sure you have enough bankroll to follow all the plays.

I use to have a system for online roulette and I did well, I won like $700 betting 2 dlls in a couple of hours but then the maths starting to go against me and I loose that money, thats why I quit for betting online games, house never loose and that's a fact!!!

Novato · Jul 30, 2008

war1000 said:
I don't know the calculations but can someone please tell me how much my bets should be if i only have $400 bankroll left?

$400 dlls I would go to win $5 - $10 dlls per series just to be safe. I'm expecting a loose a series sooner or later.

Novato · Jul 30, 2008

There is NO GAMES for today since we cleared all series yesterday.

Tomorrow we will have just one series and here is the bad news. I will not be able to bet my Friday's series because I'm having a wedding out of town and I will not have internet access.

Seems that everybody is happy with this system so far but remember that we will have some losses sooner or later, just be prepare to give that losses (money) back. We still have plenty of games to bet, this is a long run system and we will have some money at the end of September.

My recommendation is to be prepare to loose a series and have enough money to keep betting the following series.

Good luck everybody!!!