MLB system (My contribution to therx)

[Novato]

Did a little looking to see if I could find an affect of the run lines. All data is from this year and from yesterday and back. All teams were within their division. It is not comparing apples to apples but all I have. The line is the visitor's line.
visitor is <= -120 there were 9 games decided by 1 run which would have been loses. There were 3 in July. So you have to compare that to the better juice by taking -1.5 runs.

Visitor 0 to <-120 there were 16 games lost by 1 run 5 of them in July.

Visitor 0 to 119 there were 17 games lost by 1 run of which 5 were in July.

Visitor >= 120 there were 56 games lost by 1 run of which 24 were in July.

So the +1.5 run log when the visitor is plus money is a no brainer here.

Thanks CTP for posting this, but I didn't get the last part. Are you telling us that +1.5 when a team is +101 or more is the best option here??

Please let me know so I can ask you another question. Thanks!

 

[Duby99]

Thanks you Nick Swisher for that two out solo shot in the 9th to make CWS +1.5 a winner!!!!

:toast:

 

[Betting4Fun]

Great calls Novato,you got your thread regular visitor from now on.I played them all as A bets..beautiful day regardless of Arizona..if this hits too would simply say impressive!! Thanks a lot

 

[gatorbait08]

very very nice novato, this is going to be a fun system to play. Thanks for sharing this at the rx.​

 

[Novato]

very very nice novato, this is going to be a fun system to play. Thanks for sharing this at the rx.​

Your welcome!!! Hope everybody is cashing a little bit with this system, we will have a few looses thats for sure but at the end we will be in the money side.
My only concern is my boston series from another system that is killing me, if tomorrow the don't win I will be really screw up.

I will update my records as soon as Arizona win this one for us

 

[HaleBopp]

Outstanding Novato - another incredible day! Thanks for sharing and keep up the great work!

 

[Novato]

WINNING DAYS +1
YTD $+264 (I'm not counting the juice for the RL -1.5 because I want it to keep it simple and not complicate my self counting the cents)

30-0 (0 PENDING SERIES)

8-1 TODAY not bad isn't!!!!

A = 27-8
B = 3-1
C = 1-0

I lost the Philly Run Line -1.5 but not the series, I will post it as a won series with the $3 dlls instead of $9. I could continue betting the phillys tomorrow but I will left this series and make my notes to see if its a good idea to keep betting in this cases or just leave it like today.

OK, today we have another "A" system bet starting today:

"A" LOST
Philadelphia Phillies 29-July-2008 4:10 PM PST
Run Line -1.5 for Game +106
Risking 3.00 to Win 3.18 USD

"A" WON
Philadelphia Phillies 29-July-2008 4:10 PM PST
Money Line for Game -149
Risking 8.94 to Win 6.00 USD


And these are the series that we have for "B"

WON
New York Mets 29-July-2008 4:10 PM PST
Run Line -1.5 for Game +126
Risking 6.00 to Win 7.56 USD

WON
New York Mets 29-July-2008 4:10 PM PST
Money Line for Game -130
Risking 16.90 to Win 13.00 USD

WON
Arizona D-Backs 29-July-2008 7:05 PM PST
Run Line +1.5 for Game -201
Risking 54.99 to Win 27.36 USD

WON
Detroit Tigers 29-July-2008 4:05 PM PST
Run Line -1.5 for Game +130
Risking 6.00 to Win 7.80 USD

WON
Detroit Tigers 29-July-2008 4:05 PM PST
Money Line for Game -121
Risking 15.13 to Win 12.50 USD

WON
Tampa Bay Rays 29-July-2008 4:05 PM PST
Run Line +1.5 for Game -168
Risking 47.04 to Win 28.00 USD

WON
Chicago White Sox 29-July-2008 5:10 PM PST
Run Line +1.5 for Game -176
Risking 46.11 to Win 26.20 USD

 

[gatorbait08]

I normally just wager 1 unit per game, should i keep it like that and wager 2 units after losses or do i need to wager more than 1 unit on the A games​

 

[Novato]

Here is the correct YTD:

YTD $+273 (I'm not counting the juice for the RL -1.5 because I want it to keep it simple and not complicate my self counting the cents)

31-0 (0 PENDING SERIES)

 

[Novato]

I normally just wager 1 unit per game, should i keep it like that and wager 2 units after losses or do i need to wager more than 1 unit on the A games​

It's up to you "gatorbait" but this is my tip to you for martingale systems:

You need to have enough bankroll to cover a third game and a LOST for the first games before you won enough money to cover your first LOST. This system has sometimes 10 series starting the same day so you need to have enough money to bet these games. The beauty about this system is that most of the time when you bet the "A" games you can have a winning day or go even or in the worst of the cases just loose a few bucks but you will cover the next games "B" like today.

You can be conservative and keep betting 1 unit per game or have different money management like this one:

Split your entire bankroll in 4 parts and bet just 1 part for example if your bankroll is $1,000 4 parts will be $250 so bet this $250 until you double it up, so when you get $500 do the same thing with the $1250 and so on. Hope you get the idea.

Don't worry we still have plenty of games to bet, we have like 100 more series to come.

Good luck what ever you decide, don't hesitate to ask me back again

 

[CTP]

New to this so I took a shot at your divisions as to where you play the run line versus the moneyline. When the visitor is the favorite you stated you play the -1.5 run when the moneyline reaches -120. I kept that concept for the visitor being the dog. I separated the dog prices once it got to +120. If you you play the +1.5 run line for all dogs then it would be a total of 73 games where the visitor lost by one run. Using the +1.5 run line would have made these 73 games winners thus the no brainer part of the equation. Not quite so simple for the -1.5 run line.

Hope that cleared it up. If not ask a specific question and I will attempt to answer it. Remember this does not help you out for this year as the data was from (mostly) prior to the start of your system.

I may be able to obtain similar data from last year.

 

[CTP]

Sorry I do not have the same data from last year as no M/L. I think this will help make your decision for the run line at for the when the visitor is the dog.

Last year from last week of July to end of season.

There were 33 games where the visitor won by 1 run and 75 where the visitor lost by 1 run.

I am convinced that paying the extra juice for the +1.5 runs is definitely worth the money. I would guess that the -1.5 for the visitor when the favorite is also the right choice.

For the data from this year there were only 4 games where the visitor was -180 or higher. One needs to make a decision as to where to make the cut off for the amount of money one has to lay.

If you look back 2 days you will see that by laying the -1.5 has gotten you plus money with Sea, Det and the NYM and a late inning run by Wash cost plus money on Philly.

To me the -1.5 run makes sense as well.

 

[DeltaU46]

Another great day Novato, keep it up!!

:toast:

 

[boombaby]

Wish i would of followed you,Dropped 350 yesterday.Any plays for today Novato?

 

[parlayallday]

I have been following Novato now for a little over a week! I am +$2600.00 thank you sir!ope:

 

[boombaby]

Novato Quick question. Do you have a system for football?

 

[H!Tm@n]

Waw Great job Novato !! i started following you this week and i only have to say u rulezzzz !! so i cant wait to see your next picks:lol:
keep the Good Work m8 !:toast: im from Belgium so srry for my bad english :tongue:

 

[walnut5225]

muy, muy bueno Novato, gracias por su conocimiento!

:toast:


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[H!Tm@n]

Waw Great job Novato !!! I started following u this week and you rulezzz !!
cant wait to see you'r next picks ! héhé
Keep the good work m8 !! btw im from Belgium so srry for bad english

 

[bookieskatrina]

Ok, I have never jumped on board with any poster. I am going for it. I like the system.