Don't Nap on Napoli
Last week's Wired was called "Welcome to Fickle Season," and while I used that title to describe the behavior of fantasy owners in this uncertain world of small sample sizes and unsustainable successes, what I didn't expect was for a major league manager to do something that would make even the most impatient fantasy owner blush. Well, that's exactly what happened on Wednesday, as Lou Piniella sent Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen.
It obviously dwarfs Zambrano's fantasy value in the short-term, so while I can hardly blame those who decide to drop him, realize that all it could take is a couple bad starts from Carlos Silva or Tom Gorzelanny for Piniella to change his mind. What can you say? Dude is a fickle sort.
MIXED LEAGUES
Cameron Maybin OF, Marlins (Yahoo: 35 percent owned, ESPN: 28.5 percent)
Over his first six games in the leadoff spot, Maybin is batting .375 (9-for-24) with one home run, three RBI, five runs scored, and two stolen bases. Fredi Gonzalez hopes his presence there can jumpstart the slumping Chris Coghlan out of the No. 2 spot, but if Maybin is successful, there's a good chance he stays there all year long. He'll have to cut down on the strikeouts in order to maintain a decent batting average -- he has 20 strikeouts in 63 at-bats so far -- but he's a fine candidate for double-digit homers and steals. There's obviously some run-scoring potential with this supporting cast.
Mike Pelfrey SP, Mets (Yahoo: 45 percent owned, ESPN: 16.5 percent)
Don't bank on any more save opportunities coming down the pike, but the reformed Pelfrey is showing early signs of being a real asset in mixed leagues. Armed with a new splitter, the 26-year-old right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 16/8 K/BB ratio over his first four appearances (three starts). Keep in mind that there's some luck at play here, as Pelfrey has a 90.5 percent strand rate and a .231 batting average on balls in play, but it would be rather unfair to expect a modest-strikeout/groundball pitcher to maintain an ERA under 3.00, anyway.
Mike Napoli C, Angels (Yahoo: 57 percent owned, ESPN: 61.3 percent)
With Jeff Mathis potentially sidelined for at least six weeks with a fractured right wrist, Napoli becomes the every day catcher once again. You know, unless Mike Scioscia decides to mess with our heads again. For all of his faults, defensive and otherwise, Napoli is a real threat for 20-25 home runs with regular at-bats, so there's no reason he shouldn't be universally owned before the end of the week. If you're still fishing after the loss of Miguel Montero, here's your man.
Jeremy Hermida OF, Red Sox (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 1.1 percent)
Hermida is the main beneficiary of the recent injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury. Now it's just a matter of what he does with the opportunity. Of course, Hermida has been a major disappointment ever since his breakthrough season as a 23-year-old in 2007, but those in deeper mixed leagues should feel free to speculate with the knowledge that he has handled right-handers quite well during his career (.273/.350/.445). Judging by his rather stark home/away splits, he should benefit with the switch from Dolphin Stadium, or Jimmy Buffett Field, or whatever they are calling it these days.
Ty Wigginton 1B/2B/3B, Orioles (Yahoo: 31 percent owned, ESPN: 14.6 percent)
This is why it behooves you to read my AL-only and NL-only recommendations, because for everything that I'll get wrong throughout the year -- thanks a lot, Charlie Morton -- occasionally someone will become mixed-league relevant in short order. Wigginton has been a surprising power source over the first three weeks of the season, batting .268 with five homers, two doubles and 11 RBI in just 41 at-bats. You'd be nuts to think he'll continue to homer at this pace, but he'll make for a very productive option at the second base or MI spot for as long as Brian Roberts is sidelined.
Kerry Wood RP, Indians (Yahoo: 25 percent owned, ESPN: 77.7 percent)
The latest news on Wood is that he's set to throw a simulated game in Oakland on Friday. From there, he could be headed out on a minor league rehab assignment. This means Chris Perez's hold on the ninth-inning gig is merely temporary. Thanks to the early DL-stint, Wood is unlikely to approach the 55 games finished needed to vest his $11 million dollar option for 2011, so Manny Acta should have no issues using him at will. Though his batted ball statistics have been all over the place in recent seasons, Wood remains a very consistent source for strikeouts.
Ervin Santana SP, Angels (Yahoo: 54 percent owned, ESPN: 14.6 percent)
We're still in search of his missing velocity -- and his once-dominant slider hasn't been all that effective thus far -- but after a complete game win over the Blue Jays on Sunday, Santana has compiled an encouraging 17/6 K/BB ratio over his first 20 2/3 innings. Sure, he's already allowed five home runs, but while he currently owns a 4.35 ERA over his first three starts, he has an xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.69. It's almost enough to make you forget about his inherent injury risk. Almost.
Alex Gordon 3B, Royals (Yahoo: 31 percent owned, ESPN: 22.7 percent)
Gordon suffered a broken right thumb in early March, effectively squashing whatever remaining goodwill he had with fantasy owners, but after a game-winning home run against left-hander Scott Downs and the Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon, it's time to give him another look in deeper leagues. If the former first-round pick can make even a modicum of progress against southpaws this season (.217/.287/.374 coming into Wednesday's action), Gordon can and will be a very productive option at third base, with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases in the offing.
Joel Pineiro SP, Angels (Yahoo: 48 percent, ESPN: 42.5 percent)
It was only natural to be skeptical coming into the season, but after Pineiro's first three starts in an Angels' uniform, the born-again sinkerballer is inducing groundballs at a rate of 60 percent, nearly indistinguishable from his major league-leading 60.5 percent groundball rate from last season. It's still very early, but so far he's repeated his elite control while improving his strikeout rate from 4.42 K/9 to 5.75 K/9. Ultimately, some regression is to be expected with the league switch, but these are some promising signs that he can survive without Dave Duncan.
Ted Lilly SP, Cubs (Yahoo: 55 percent owned, ESPN: 82.1 percent)
Are people somehow forgetting that this guy was 12-9 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 151/36 K/BB ratio last season? Pure insanity, I say. Lilly should be owned in all leagues, safely tucked away for his return from the disabled list this weekend. Strike now, because the veteran southpaw be universally-owned by this time next week. And don't worry, he's not headed for the bullpen. Yet.
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AL-ONLY
Fred Lewis OF, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Edwin Encarnacion hit the disabled list on Wednesday, which means that Lewis will get to play everyday in left field while Jose Bautista fills in at third base. Lewis, who was recently acquired from the Giants, is just 2-for-13 (.154) with a 5/1 K/BB ratio with the Jays so far, but his .275/.353/.418 career batting line hints at better days ahead. It's the change of scenery he's been waiting for, so let's see if he can make something of the opportunity.
Darnell McDonald OF, Red Sox (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
McDonald is off to a smashing start in Boston, homering in consecutive games since his call up from the PawSox. Yes, he's not likely to see regular playing time once Jacoby Ellsbury returns from the disabled list, possibly as soon as next Monday, but the former top prospect offers a natural platoon partner to Jeremy Hermida for as long as Mike Cameron is on the shelf. There figures to be a roster crunch in Boston real soon, but it's a thought.
Kam Mickolio RP, Orioles (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent owned)
Mike Gonzalez is scheduled to visit Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion on his left shoulder this week, something I'll throw in the "usually not a good sign department." With that in mind, this might be the perfect time to stash the 25-year-old Mickolio. Armed with a fastball that touches the mid 90s, the former Mariners' farmhand has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in parts of five minor league seasons, averaging 9.5 K/9. If he can translate this success to the majors, Jim Johnson won't be the "closer-by-default" for long.
Brett Cecil SP, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 0 percent, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Cecil was sent to the minor leagues after a frustrating spring training, but now that Brian Tallet is on the disabled list with a forearm injury, he has a chance at some redemption. The 23-year-old southpaw was 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) during his rookie season with the Jays in '09, but his xFIP of 4.68 said he wasn't nearly as bad as those numbers suggest. Don't forget, the former 2007 first-round pick has averaged 9.0 K/9 and a 59.7 percent groundball rate in the minors, so he's deserving of an extended look.
NL-ONLY
Wade LeBlanc SP, Padres (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
LeBlanc makes for a pretty savvy grab right now with Chris Young's short-term and long-term health in question. The 25-year-old southpaw said he didn't have his best stuff against the Diamondbacks on Sunday, but he still managed to toss five innings of one-run ball while striking out seven and walking two. Still, because he doesn't generate much in the way of velocity (he averaged 86.9 MPH on his "heater" on Sunday), he's best reserved for starts at home, where the home run ball is less likely to hurt him.
Nate Schierholtz OF, Giants (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.4 percent)
While Bruce Bochy has become short-handed on outfielders in the past week, Schierholtz has been in the lineup with regularity, batting .304 (7-for-23) to begin the year. By contrast, Opening Day right-fielder John Bowker is batting is .189 (7-for-37). Schierholtz is already the better defensive option, so should Bowker's struggles continue, he could take the job that was expected to be his during spring training.
Eric Young Jr. 2B, Rockies (Yahoo: 1 percent, ESPN: 0.4 percent)
Here's another stash situation. Why? Because with a rather modest .216/.293/.432 batting line, Clint Barmes is looking pretty vulnerable already. Of course, Barmes kills lefties to the tune of an 832 OPS, but it's pretty hard to justify starting him everyday when all he can muster is a lousy 673 OPS against righties. Even though Young is currently in the minors, I could see this emerge as a platoon situation before long. And as you hopefully know by now, with 305 stolen bases in 580 minor league games, Young has serious speed to burn.
Justin Maxwell OF, Nationals (Yahoo: 0 percent, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
I'm in Maxwell's corner. Maybe I shouldn't be. After all, he hit a grand slam to win a game against my Mets late last season. But he's a Maryland kid like me, so I've tracked him pretty closely. It appears the 26-year-old will be given regular at-bats against left-handers as part of a platoon with Willie Harris in right field, which is probably the best way to deploy him right now. His game isn't without it's fair share of warts -- see his contact rate -- but he owns the skills and patience to be much more than a platoon player.
Last week's Wired was called "Welcome to Fickle Season," and while I used that title to describe the behavior of fantasy owners in this uncertain world of small sample sizes and unsustainable successes, what I didn't expect was for a major league manager to do something that would make even the most impatient fantasy owner blush. Well, that's exactly what happened on Wednesday, as Lou Piniella sent Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen.
It obviously dwarfs Zambrano's fantasy value in the short-term, so while I can hardly blame those who decide to drop him, realize that all it could take is a couple bad starts from Carlos Silva or Tom Gorzelanny for Piniella to change his mind. What can you say? Dude is a fickle sort.
MIXED LEAGUES
Cameron Maybin OF, Marlins (Yahoo: 35 percent owned, ESPN: 28.5 percent)
Over his first six games in the leadoff spot, Maybin is batting .375 (9-for-24) with one home run, three RBI, five runs scored, and two stolen bases. Fredi Gonzalez hopes his presence there can jumpstart the slumping Chris Coghlan out of the No. 2 spot, but if Maybin is successful, there's a good chance he stays there all year long. He'll have to cut down on the strikeouts in order to maintain a decent batting average -- he has 20 strikeouts in 63 at-bats so far -- but he's a fine candidate for double-digit homers and steals. There's obviously some run-scoring potential with this supporting cast.
Mike Pelfrey SP, Mets (Yahoo: 45 percent owned, ESPN: 16.5 percent)
Don't bank on any more save opportunities coming down the pike, but the reformed Pelfrey is showing early signs of being a real asset in mixed leagues. Armed with a new splitter, the 26-year-old right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 16/8 K/BB ratio over his first four appearances (three starts). Keep in mind that there's some luck at play here, as Pelfrey has a 90.5 percent strand rate and a .231 batting average on balls in play, but it would be rather unfair to expect a modest-strikeout/groundball pitcher to maintain an ERA under 3.00, anyway.
Mike Napoli C, Angels (Yahoo: 57 percent owned, ESPN: 61.3 percent)
With Jeff Mathis potentially sidelined for at least six weeks with a fractured right wrist, Napoli becomes the every day catcher once again. You know, unless Mike Scioscia decides to mess with our heads again. For all of his faults, defensive and otherwise, Napoli is a real threat for 20-25 home runs with regular at-bats, so there's no reason he shouldn't be universally owned before the end of the week. If you're still fishing after the loss of Miguel Montero, here's your man.
Jeremy Hermida OF, Red Sox (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 1.1 percent)
Hermida is the main beneficiary of the recent injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury. Now it's just a matter of what he does with the opportunity. Of course, Hermida has been a major disappointment ever since his breakthrough season as a 23-year-old in 2007, but those in deeper mixed leagues should feel free to speculate with the knowledge that he has handled right-handers quite well during his career (.273/.350/.445). Judging by his rather stark home/away splits, he should benefit with the switch from Dolphin Stadium, or Jimmy Buffett Field, or whatever they are calling it these days.
Ty Wigginton 1B/2B/3B, Orioles (Yahoo: 31 percent owned, ESPN: 14.6 percent)
This is why it behooves you to read my AL-only and NL-only recommendations, because for everything that I'll get wrong throughout the year -- thanks a lot, Charlie Morton -- occasionally someone will become mixed-league relevant in short order. Wigginton has been a surprising power source over the first three weeks of the season, batting .268 with five homers, two doubles and 11 RBI in just 41 at-bats. You'd be nuts to think he'll continue to homer at this pace, but he'll make for a very productive option at the second base or MI spot for as long as Brian Roberts is sidelined.
Kerry Wood RP, Indians (Yahoo: 25 percent owned, ESPN: 77.7 percent)
The latest news on Wood is that he's set to throw a simulated game in Oakland on Friday. From there, he could be headed out on a minor league rehab assignment. This means Chris Perez's hold on the ninth-inning gig is merely temporary. Thanks to the early DL-stint, Wood is unlikely to approach the 55 games finished needed to vest his $11 million dollar option for 2011, so Manny Acta should have no issues using him at will. Though his batted ball statistics have been all over the place in recent seasons, Wood remains a very consistent source for strikeouts.
Ervin Santana SP, Angels (Yahoo: 54 percent owned, ESPN: 14.6 percent)
We're still in search of his missing velocity -- and his once-dominant slider hasn't been all that effective thus far -- but after a complete game win over the Blue Jays on Sunday, Santana has compiled an encouraging 17/6 K/BB ratio over his first 20 2/3 innings. Sure, he's already allowed five home runs, but while he currently owns a 4.35 ERA over his first three starts, he has an xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.69. It's almost enough to make you forget about his inherent injury risk. Almost.
Alex Gordon 3B, Royals (Yahoo: 31 percent owned, ESPN: 22.7 percent)
Gordon suffered a broken right thumb in early March, effectively squashing whatever remaining goodwill he had with fantasy owners, but after a game-winning home run against left-hander Scott Downs and the Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon, it's time to give him another look in deeper leagues. If the former first-round pick can make even a modicum of progress against southpaws this season (.217/.287/.374 coming into Wednesday's action), Gordon can and will be a very productive option at third base, with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases in the offing.
Joel Pineiro SP, Angels (Yahoo: 48 percent, ESPN: 42.5 percent)
It was only natural to be skeptical coming into the season, but after Pineiro's first three starts in an Angels' uniform, the born-again sinkerballer is inducing groundballs at a rate of 60 percent, nearly indistinguishable from his major league-leading 60.5 percent groundball rate from last season. It's still very early, but so far he's repeated his elite control while improving his strikeout rate from 4.42 K/9 to 5.75 K/9. Ultimately, some regression is to be expected with the league switch, but these are some promising signs that he can survive without Dave Duncan.
Ted Lilly SP, Cubs (Yahoo: 55 percent owned, ESPN: 82.1 percent)
Are people somehow forgetting that this guy was 12-9 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 151/36 K/BB ratio last season? Pure insanity, I say. Lilly should be owned in all leagues, safely tucked away for his return from the disabled list this weekend. Strike now, because the veteran southpaw be universally-owned by this time next week. And don't worry, he's not headed for the bullpen. Yet.
<!--RW-->
AL-ONLY
Fred Lewis OF, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Edwin Encarnacion hit the disabled list on Wednesday, which means that Lewis will get to play everyday in left field while Jose Bautista fills in at third base. Lewis, who was recently acquired from the Giants, is just 2-for-13 (.154) with a 5/1 K/BB ratio with the Jays so far, but his .275/.353/.418 career batting line hints at better days ahead. It's the change of scenery he's been waiting for, so let's see if he can make something of the opportunity.
Darnell McDonald OF, Red Sox (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
McDonald is off to a smashing start in Boston, homering in consecutive games since his call up from the PawSox. Yes, he's not likely to see regular playing time once Jacoby Ellsbury returns from the disabled list, possibly as soon as next Monday, but the former top prospect offers a natural platoon partner to Jeremy Hermida for as long as Mike Cameron is on the shelf. There figures to be a roster crunch in Boston real soon, but it's a thought.
Kam Mickolio RP, Orioles (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent owned)
Mike Gonzalez is scheduled to visit Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion on his left shoulder this week, something I'll throw in the "usually not a good sign department." With that in mind, this might be the perfect time to stash the 25-year-old Mickolio. Armed with a fastball that touches the mid 90s, the former Mariners' farmhand has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in parts of five minor league seasons, averaging 9.5 K/9. If he can translate this success to the majors, Jim Johnson won't be the "closer-by-default" for long.
Brett Cecil SP, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 0 percent, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Cecil was sent to the minor leagues after a frustrating spring training, but now that Brian Tallet is on the disabled list with a forearm injury, he has a chance at some redemption. The 23-year-old southpaw was 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) during his rookie season with the Jays in '09, but his xFIP of 4.68 said he wasn't nearly as bad as those numbers suggest. Don't forget, the former 2007 first-round pick has averaged 9.0 K/9 and a 59.7 percent groundball rate in the minors, so he's deserving of an extended look.
NL-ONLY
Wade LeBlanc SP, Padres (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
LeBlanc makes for a pretty savvy grab right now with Chris Young's short-term and long-term health in question. The 25-year-old southpaw said he didn't have his best stuff against the Diamondbacks on Sunday, but he still managed to toss five innings of one-run ball while striking out seven and walking two. Still, because he doesn't generate much in the way of velocity (he averaged 86.9 MPH on his "heater" on Sunday), he's best reserved for starts at home, where the home run ball is less likely to hurt him.
Nate Schierholtz OF, Giants (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.4 percent)
While Bruce Bochy has become short-handed on outfielders in the past week, Schierholtz has been in the lineup with regularity, batting .304 (7-for-23) to begin the year. By contrast, Opening Day right-fielder John Bowker is batting is .189 (7-for-37). Schierholtz is already the better defensive option, so should Bowker's struggles continue, he could take the job that was expected to be his during spring training.
Eric Young Jr. 2B, Rockies (Yahoo: 1 percent, ESPN: 0.4 percent)
Here's another stash situation. Why? Because with a rather modest .216/.293/.432 batting line, Clint Barmes is looking pretty vulnerable already. Of course, Barmes kills lefties to the tune of an 832 OPS, but it's pretty hard to justify starting him everyday when all he can muster is a lousy 673 OPS against righties. Even though Young is currently in the minors, I could see this emerge as a platoon situation before long. And as you hopefully know by now, with 305 stolen bases in 580 minor league games, Young has serious speed to burn.
Justin Maxwell OF, Nationals (Yahoo: 0 percent, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
I'm in Maxwell's corner. Maybe I shouldn't be. After all, he hit a grand slam to win a game against my Mets late last season. But he's a Maryland kid like me, so I've tracked him pretty closely. It appears the 26-year-old will be given regular at-bats against left-handers as part of a platoon with Willie Harris in right field, which is probably the best way to deploy him right now. His game isn't without it's fair share of warts -- see his contact rate -- but he owns the skills and patience to be much more than a platoon player.