Hitting Projections Review
Here's a look at some of my preseason projections for offensive players. First up is a run-through of some of the notable projections by position. At the end of the column is a chart looking at my OPS projections.
Next to each player's name and team are his preseason AL- or NL-only dollar ranking and his overall position ranking.
Catchers
Preseason Top 5
Joe Mauer - Twins - $34 - #1
Projection: .331/.420/.537, 24 HR, 101 R, 98 RBI, 4 SB in 529 AB
2010 stats: .327/.402/.469, 9 HR, 88 R, 75 RBI, 1 SB in 510 AB
43 doubles, but just nine homers (one at Target Field). In 2010, he finished with 30 doubles and 28 homers.
Victor Martinez - Red Sox - $25 - #2
Projection: .300/.377/.468, 18 HR, 84 R, 99 RBI, 0 SB in 543 AB
2010 stats: .302/.351/.493, 20 HR, 64 R, 79 RBI, 1 SB in 493 AB
Brian McCann - Braves - $23 - #3
Projection: .284/.355/.494, 23 HR, 66 R, 90 RBI, 3 SB in 486 AB
2010 stats: .269/.375/.453, 21 HR, 63 R, 77 RBI, 5 SB in 479 AB
Matt Wieters - Orioles - $19 - #4
Projection: .286/.356/.480, 21 HR, 65 R, 79 RBI, 1 SB in 479 AB
2010 stats: .249/.319/.377, 11 HR, 37 R, 55 RBI, 0 SB in 446 AB
Wieters started out the season with three straight multihit games and then never did it again. I still think the talent is there, but I won't be able to justify going with such a strong projection again. Maybe something like .270/.350/.440 with 15-17 homers.
Russell Martin - Dodgers - $17 - #5
Projection: .274/.370/.408, 12 HR, 72 R, 66 RBI, 10 SB in 468 AB
2010 stats: .248/.347/.332, 5 HR, 45 R, 26 RBI, 6 SB in 331 AB
Others
John Buck - Blue Jays - $4 - #21
Projection: .232/.300/.415, 14 HR, 40 R, 51 RBI, 1 SB in 349 AB
2010 stats: .281/.314/.489, 20 HR, 53 R, 66 RBI, 0 SB in 409 AB
Jason Kendall - Royals - $3 - #27
Projection: .249/.319/.316, 1 HR, 54 R, 38 RBI, 6 SB in 437 AB
2010 stats: .256/.318/.297, 0 HR, 39 R, 37 RBI, 12 SB in 434 AB
Kendall was actually on pace for 537 at-bats when he was shut down with a season-ending shoulder injury on Aug. 30.
Miguel Montero - Diamondbacks - $14 - #7
Projection: .267/.338/.457, 19 HR, 57 R, 69 RBI, 2 SB in 442 AB
2010 stats: .266/.332/.438, 9 HR, 36 R, 43 RBI, 0 SB in 297 AB
Mike Napoli - Angels - $13 - #9
Projection: .252/.355/.477, 21 HR, 59 R, 63 RBI, 4 SB in 365 AB
2010 stats: .238/.316/.468, 26 HR, 60 R, 68 RBI, 4 SB in 453 AB
Jorge Posada - Yankees - $13 - #8
Projection: .266/.359/.465, 19 HR, 58 R, 70 RBI, 1 SB in 402 AB
2010 stats: .248/.357/.454, 18 HR, 49 R, 57 RBI, 3 SB in 383 AB
Buster Posey - Giants - $2 - #32
Projection: .286/.356/.458, 7 HR, 24 R, 27 RBI, 1 SB in 203 AB
2010 stats: .305/.357/.505, 18 HR, 58 R, 67 RBI, 0 SB in 406 AB
Ivan Rodriguez - Nationals - $3 - #28
Projection: .266/.308/.389, 6 HR, 33 R, 36 RBI, 3 SB in 319 AB
2010 stats: .266/.294/.347, 4 HR, 32 R, 49 RBI, 2 SB in 398 AB
Kurt Suzuki - Athletics - $14 - #6
Projection: .273/.335/.398, 12 HR, 66 R, 73 RBI, 4 SB in 517 AB
2010 stats: .242/.303/.366, 13 HR, 55 R, 71 RBI, 3 SB in 495 AB
If the A's can bring in some real hitters this winter and drop Suzuki down to the seventh spot in the lineup where he belongs, he'll go into the potential fantasy bust category for 2011. He spent most of this season batting third and fourth.
First Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Albert Pujols - Cardinals - $41 - #1
Projection: .325/.443/.624, 41 HR, 113 R, 122 RBI, 10 SB in 551 AB
2010 stats: .312/.414/.596, 42 HR, 115 R, 118 RBI, 14 SB in 587 AB
Miguel Cabrera - Tigers - $33 - #2
Projection: .315/.391/.573, 39 HR, 100 R, 118 RBI, 3 SB in 604 AB
2010 stats: .328/.420/.622, 38 HR, 111 R, 126 RBI, 3 SB in 548 AB
Mark Teixeira - Yankees - $33 - #3
Projection: .298/.392/.570, 41 HR, 109 R, 125 RBI, 1 SB in 605 AB
2010 stats: .256/.365/.481, 33 HR, 113 R, 108 RBI, 0 SB in 601 AB
Teixeira lost 100 points of OPS from his first season in New York, yet still led the American League in runs scored. It's good to be a Yankee.
Ryan Howard - Phillies - $31 - #4
Projection: .269/.362/.561, 47 HR, 99 R, 133 RBI, 3 SB in 592 AB
2010 stats: .276/.353/.505, 31 HR, 87 R, 108 RBI, 1 SB in 550 AB
Prince Fielder - Brewers - $31 - #5
Projection: .288/.406/.570, 42 HR, 98 R, 126 RBI, 2 SB in 577 AB
2010 stats: .261/.401/.471, 32 HR, 94 R, 83 RBI, 1 SB in 578 AB
I projected him to lose 32 points of slugging and 15 RBI. He lost 131 points of slugging and a whopping 58 RBI.
Others
Lance Berkman - Astros/Yankees - $19 - #12
Projection: .281/.401/.506, 27 HR, 91 R, 87 RBI, 5 SB in 508 AB
2010 stats: .248/.368/.413, 14 HR, 48 R, 58 RBI, 3 SB in 404 AB
Billy Butler - Royals - $20 - #11
Projection: .304/.372/.500, 23 HR, 86 R, 93 RBI, 1 SB in 586 AB
2010 stats: .318/.388/.469, 15 HR, 77 R, 78 RBI, 0 SB in 595 AB
All of those singles and doubles just don't result in many runs and RBI in Kansas City's lineup.
Adam Dunn - Nationals - $19 - #13
Projection: .245/.378/.504, 37 HR, 93 R, 100 RBI, 2 SB in 542 AB
2010 stats: 260/.356/.536, 38 HR, 85 R, 103 RBI, 0 SB in 558 AB
Adrian Gonzalez - Padres - $25 - #7
Projection: .283/.391/.542, 38 HR, 101 R, 104 RBI, 0 SB in 579 AB
2010 stats: .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 87 R, 101 RBI, 0 SB in 591 AB
Paul Konerko - White Sox - $15 - #17
Projection: .266/.349/.466, 28 HR, 76 R, 92 RBI, 0 SB in 552 AB
2010 stats: .312/.393/.584, 39 HR, 89 R, 111 RBI, 0 SB in 548 AB
A career year at age 34 hardly appeared to be in the cards. Konerko finished with OPSs of 841, 783 and 842 the previous three years. I was actually projecting him to best his totals in runs and RBI from any of those three seasons.
Adam LaRoche - Diamondbacks - $16 - #16
Projection: .275/.351/.483, 25 HR, 82 R, 98 RBI, 1 SB in 557 AB
2010 stats: .261/.320/.468, 25 HR, 75 R, 100 RBI, 0 SB in 560 AB
Derrek Lee - Cubs - $20 - #10
Projection: .290/.375/.496, 25 HR, 91 R, 90 RBI, 4 SB in 568 AB
2010 stats: .260/.347/.428, 19 HR, 80 R, 80 RBI, 1 SB in 547 AB
David Ortiz - Red Sox - $16 - #2 DH
Projection: .263/.358/.504, 28 HR, 84 R, 97 RBI, 1 SB in 502 AB
2010 stats: .270/.370/.529, 32 HR, 86 R, 102 RBI, 0 SB in 518 AB
Carlos Pena - Rays - $18 - #14
Projection: .243/.370/.500, 33 HR, 89 R, 106 RBI, 1 SB in 502 AB
2010 stats: .196/.325/.407, 28 HR, 64 R, 84 RBI, 5 SB in 484 AB
Sure, it's maybe the greatest season a sub-.200 hitter has ever had, but that's not a lot of consolation to his fantasy owners.
Joey Votto - Reds - $22 - #9
Projection: .291/.372/.514, 27 HR, 92 R, 94 RBI, 7 SB in 564 AB
2010 stats: .324/.424/.600, 37 HR, 106 R, 113 RBI, 16 SB in 547 AB
Second Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Chase Utley - Phillies - $30 - #1
Projection: .291/.390/.509, 27 HR, 107 R, 95 RBI, 16 SB in 574 AB
2010 stats: .275/.387/.445, 16 HR, 75 R, 65 RBI, 13 SB in 425 AB
Ian Kinsler - Rangers - $29 - #2
Projection: .285/.361/.485, 24 HR, 86 R, 91 RBI, 26 SB in 565 AB
2010 stats: .286/.382/.412, 9 HR, 73 R, 45 RBI, 15 SB in 391 AB
Robinson Cano - Yankees - $28 - #3
Projection: .311/.350/.510, 27 HR, 90 R, 102 RBI, 4 SB in 620 AB
2010 stats: .319/.381/.534, 29 HR, 103 R, 109 RBI, 3 SB in 626 AB
If the Yankees had hit Cano third or fourth all year, he'd be in line for his first MVP award next month. He actually did hit cleanup 26 times and drove in 28 runs in those games.
Brandon Phillips - Reds - $27 - #4
Projection: .282/.334/.467, 23 HR, 86 R, 90 RBI, 24 SB in 582 AB
2010 stats: .275/.332/.430, 18 HR, 100 R, 59 RBI, 16 SB in 626 AB
Dustin Pedroia - Red Sox - $26 - #5
Projection: .313/.383/.462, 14 HR, 112 R, 77 RBI, 14 SB in 617 AB
2010 stats: .288/.367/.493, 12 HR, 53 R, 41 RBI, 9 SB in 302 AB
Others
Aaron Hill - Blue Jays - $23 - #7
Projection: .284/.341/.475, 26 HR, 97 R, 90 RBI, 6 SB in 638 AB
2010 stats: .205/.271/.394, 26 HR, 70 R, 68 RBI, 2 SB in 528 AB
Omar Infante - Braves - $1 - #35
Projection: .284/.332/.399, 5 HR, 40 R, 36 RBI, 3 SB in 303 AB
2010 stats: .321/.359/.416, 8 HR, 65 R, 47 RBI, 7 SB in 471 AB
Kelly Johnson - Diamondbacks - $14 - #12
Projection: .280/.357/.455, 15 HR, 86 R, 69 RBI, 9 SB in 525 AB
2010 stats: .284/.370/.496, 26 HR, 93 R, 71 RBI, 13 SB in 585 AB
Jose Lopez - Mariners - $17 - #10
Projection: .283/.318/.454, 21 HR, 75 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 604 AB
2010 stats: .239/.270/.339, 10 HR, 49 R, 58 RBI, 3 SB in 593 AB
Such a remarkably terrible season from start to finish. By month, Lopez finished with OPSs of 545, 580, 683, 581, 650 and 610.
Placido Polanco - Phillies - $12 - #13
Projection: .297/.341/.403, 9 HR, 91 R, 60 RBI, 6 SB in 583 AB
2010 stats: .298/.339/.386, 6 HR, 76 R, 52 RBI, 5 SB in 554 AB
Notice how often I was over on runs and RBI even on the good projections. I didn't foresee run scoring suddenly dropping by five percent across the board.
Martin Prado - Braves - $11 - #14
Projection: .298/.351/.428, 9 HR, 85 R, 67 RBI, 4 SB in 530 AB
2010 stats: .307/.350/.459, 15 HR, 100 R, 66 RBI, 5 SB in 599 AB
Dan Uggla - Marlins - $16 - #11
Projection: .248/.347/.475, 29 HR, 83 R, 94 RBI, 3 SB in 545 AB
2010 stats: .287/.369/.508, 33 HR, 100 R, 105 RBI, 4 SB in 589 AB
Looking back, I probably should have given more consideration to Uggla lowering his strikeout rate in 2009. However, he actually hit just .243 last year. This year, the strikeout rate stayed down and his batting average took a big jump. I'll probably go with something around .260 next year.
Rickie Weeks - Brewers - $10 - #16
Projection: .261/.358/.426, 15 HR, 85 R, 47 RBI, 16 SB in 441 AB
2010 stats: .269/.366/.464, 29 HR, 112 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB in 651 AB
Ben Zobrist - Rays - $20 - #9
Projection: .268/.363/.465, 22 HR, 81 R, 86 RBI, 16 SB in 529 AB
2010 stats: .238/.346/.353, 10 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 24 SB in 541 AB
One of the trickiest 2010 projections. Zobrist came in at .297/.405/.543 during his remarkable 2009 season. I expected his average to come down, but I really had no idea how much of the power he'd hold on to. As it turned out, he went from 27 homers to 10 and seven triples to two. He actually finished with 28 doubles both years. I projected a 120-point drop in OPS, but he ended up coming at 249 (948 to 699).
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Third Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Alex Rodriguez - Yankees - $36 - #1
Projection: .285/.394/.548, 39 HR, 113 R, 119 RBI, 17 SB in 557 AB
2010 stats: .270/.341/.506, 30 HR, 74 R, 125 RBI, 4 SB in 522 AB
A-Rod's chances of breaking the all-time runs scored record took a hit this year, while he looks like a better bet than ever to top Hank Aaron's career RBI mark. Through 2008, A-Rod had scored 1,605 runs and driven in 1,606. However, he's scored just 152 runs and knocked in 225 since. This was also just the second season in his career in which he didn't finish with at least 14 steals.
David Wright - Mets - $35 - #2
Projection: .310/.398/.528, 28 HR, 102 R, 105 RBI, 24 SB in 600 AB
2010 stats: .283/.354/.503, 29 HR, 87 R, 103 RBI, 19 SB in 587 AB
Evan Longoria - Rays - $30 - #3
Projection: .284/.369/.544, 35 HR, 102 R, 121 RBI, 8 SB in 570 AB
2010 stats: .294/.372/.507, 22 HR, 96 R, 104 RBI, 15 SB in 574 AB
Mark Reynolds - Diamondbacks - $26 - #4
Projection: .256/.344/.512, 37 HR, 96 R, 111 RBI, 12 SB in 582 AB
2010 stats: .198/.320/.433, 32 HR, 79 R, 85 RBI, 7 SB in 499 AB
Reynolds had some incredible splits. He his just .150 with the bases empty. On the other hand, 17 of his 32 homers came with men on and he hit an exceptional .276/.414/.619 in 134 at-bats with RISP. On yet another hand, he was 0-for-10 with eight strikeouts with the bases loaded.
Before Reynolds finished at 85 and Carlos Pena came in at 84 this year, no one had ever driven in more than 64 runs with a sub-.200 average.
Pablo Sandoval - Giants - $25 - #5
Projection: .316/.373/.532, 26 HR, 89 R, 97 RBI, 4 SB in 594 AB
2010 stats: .268/.323/.409, 13 HR, 61 R, 63 RBI, 3 SB in 563 AB
Others
Jose Bautista - Blue Jays - $1 - #35
Projection: .243/.331/.425, 10 HR, 36 R, 34 RBI, 2 SB in 259 AB
2010 stats: .260/.378/.617, 54 HR, 109 R, 124 RBI, 9 SB in 569 AB
Adrian Beltre - Red Sox - $16 - #11
Projection: .275/.333/.456, 21 HR, 80 R, 87 RBI, 9 SB in 568 AB
2010 stats: .321/.365/.553, 28 HR, 84 R, 102 RBI, 2 SB in 589 AB
Pedro Feliz - Astros/Cardinals - $3 - #31
Projection: .250/.296/.403, 16 HR, 47 R, 64 RBI, 1 SB in 476 AB
2010 stats: .218/.240/.293, 5 HR, 36 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 409 AB
Being wrong a lot is the nature of the business, but for me, it's most frustrating to give someone a poor projection and then watch them blow it out of the water with how bad they are. I mean, I doubt anyone who went by my projections ended up with Feliz on their NL-only rosters. So that's good. But I still missed by 166 points of OPS!
Chone Figgins - Mariners - $19 - #10
Projection: .277/.371/.359, 4 HR, 93 R, 50 RBI, 40 SB in 563 AB
2010 stats: .259/.340/.306, 1 HR, 62 R, 35 RBI, 42 SB in 602 AB
Aramis Ramirez - Cubs - $21 - #8
Projection: .293/.368/.514, 27 HR, 84 R, 105 RBI, 1 SB in 539 AB
2010 stats: .241/.294/.452, 25 HR, 61 R, 83 RBI, 0 SB in 465 AB
Michael Young - Rangers - $20 - #9
Projection: .296/.350/.431, 15 HR, 95 R, 87 RBI, 7 SB in 626 AB
2010 stats: .284/.330/.444, 21 HR, 99 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 656 AB
Ryan Zimmerman - Nationals - $24 - #6
Projection: .289/.360/.506, 29 HR, 99 R, 103 RBI, 4 SB in 613 AB
2010 stats: .307/.388/.510, 25 HR, 85 R, 85 RBI, 4 SB in 525 AB
Shortstops
Preseason Top 5
Hanley Ramirez - Marlins - $42 - #1
Projection: .321/.403/.549, 28 HR, 108 R, 104 RBI, 31 SB in 563 AB
2010 stats: .300/.378/.475, 21 HR, 92 R, 76 RBI, 32 SB in 543 AB
Even though he was moving into the No. 3 spot in the order, I projected Ramirez to finish with just 83 RBI in 2009, thinking the Marlins would be very weak at the top. Of course, Chris Coghlan burst on the scene two months in and Ramirez went on to hit .373 with RISP to finish with 106 RBI. This season played out much closer to how I thought 2009 would.
Jose Reyes - Mets - $30 - #2
Projection: .288/.359/.454, 15 HR, 101 R, 62 RBI, 42 SB in 597 AB
2010 stats: .282/.321/.428, 11 HR, 83 R, 54 RBI, 30 SB in 563 AB
With all of the Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez, Oliver Perez and David Wright strikeout drama, no one seemed to notice that Reyes took a real step backwards. He walked 66 times on his way to posting a .358 OBP in 2008 and he had 18 walks and a .355 OBP in 36 games before getting hurt last year. This year, he drew just 31 walks in 133 games.
Jimmy Rollins - Phillies - $28 - #3
Projection: .271/.327/.439, 18 HR, 110 R, 71 RBI, 34 SB in 668 AB
2010 stats: .243/.320/.374, 8 HR, 48 R, 41 RBI, 17 SB in 350 AB
Troy Tulowitzki - Rockies - $28 - #4
Projection: .293/.372/.490, 24 HR, 97 R, 101 RBI, 11 SB in 573 AB
2010 stats: .315/.381/.568, 27 HR, 89 R, 95 RBI, 11 SB in 470 AB
Derek Jeter - Yankees - $26 - #5
Projection: .298/.372/.432, 16 HR, 108 R, 73 RBI, 17 SB in 611 AB
2010 stats: .270/.340/.370, 10 HR, 111 R, 67 RBI, 18 SB in 663 AB
Tied Juan Pierre for the major league lead in outs made with 515. I thought it was actually a pretty gutsy call projecting Jeter to hit .298. He came in at .334 in 2009, and he hadn't finished under .300 since 2004.
Others
Elvis Andrus - Rangers - $23 - #7
Projection: .274/.335/.388, 8 HR, 82 R, 51 RBI, 45 SB in 533 AB
2010 stats: .265/.342/.301, 0 HR, 88 R, 35 RBI, 32 SB in 588 AB
I had Andrus projected to hit three homers and slug .316 as a rookie in 2009, but he surprised me finishing with six bombs and a .373 slugging percentage. Logic dictated that he'd do a little better as a sophomore. Instead, he went from delivering 31 extra-base hits in 480 at-bats to 18 in 588 at-bats. He was also a disappointment as a basestealer, though he's showed his potential there in the postseason (7-for-8 so far).
Jason Bartlett - Rays - $18 - #11
Projection: .282/.347/.404, 9 HR, 86 R, 57 RBI, 26 SB in 539 AB
2010 stats: .254/.324/.350, 7 HR, 71 R, 47 RBI, 11 SB in 468 AB
Stephen Drew - Diamondbacks - $16 - #13
Projection: .285/.349/.476, 18 HR, 90 R, 69 RBI, 6 SB in 548 AB
2010 stats: .278/.352/.458, 15 HR, 83 R, 61 RBI, 10 SB in 565 AB
Yunel Escobar - Braves - $19 - #9
Projection: .304/.378/.452, 15 HR, 83 R, 84 RBI, 5 SB in 562 AB
2010 stats: .256/.337/.318, 4 HR, 60 R, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 497 AB
Alexei Ramirez - White Sox - $24 - #6
Projection: .285/.339/.465, 23 HR, 74 R, 77 RBI, 21 SB in 561 AB
2010 stats: .282/.313/.431, 18 HR, 83 R, 70 RBI, 13 SB in 585 AB
Outfielders
Preseason Top 10
Ryan Braun - Brewers - $39 - #1
Projection: .309/.373/.575, 38 HR, 113 R, 110 RBI, 18 SB in 621 AB
2010 stats: .304/.366/.501, 25 HR, 101 R, 103 RBI, 14 SB in 619 AB
I think the power will come back next year. Still, Crawford will be my No. 1 fantasy outfielder if he joins the Red Sox or Yankees. Braun would probably hold on to the top spot if Crawford ends up in Anaheim.
Carl Crawford - Rays - $35 - #2
Projection: .310/.362/.477, 16 HR, 103 R, 79 RBI, 51 SB in 596 AB
2010 stats: .307/.356/.495, 19 HR, 110 R, 90 RBI, 47 SB in 600 AB
Matt Kemp - Dodgers - $34 - #3
Projection: .293/.350/.511, 29 HR, 101 R, 102 RBI, 31 SB in 611 AB
2010 stats: .249/.310/.450, 28 HR, 82 R, 89 RBI, 19 SB in 602 AB
Jacoby Ellsbury - Red Sox - $32 - #4
Projection: .296/.356/.421, 11 HR, 106 R, 63 RBI, 57 SB in 615 AB
2010 stats: .192/.241/.244, 0 HR, 10 R, 5 RBI, 7 SB in 78 AB
Matt Holliday - Cardinals - $30 - #5
Projection: .308/.403/.520, 26 HR, 95 R, 117 RBI, 12 SB in 569 AB
2010 stats: .312/.390/.532, 28 HR, 95 R, 103 RBI, 9 SB in 596 AB
How did the Cardinals get such seasons from Pujols, Holliday, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and still finish 86-76 in the game's worst division?
Justin Upton - Diamondbacks - $28 - #6
Projection: .286/.363/.531, 31 HR, 96 R, 102 RBI, 17 SB in 588 AB
2010 stats: .273/.356/.442, 17 HR, 73 R, 69 RBI, 18 SB in 495 AB
Nick Markakis - Orioles - $28 - #7
Projection: .307/.388/.501, 24 HR, 102 R, 108 RBI, 9 SB in 613 AB
2010 stats: .297/.370/.436, 12 HR, 79 R, 60 RBI, 7 SB in 629 AB
Please fire hitting coach Terry Crowley. Markakis' homer total has gone from 23 to 20 to 18 to 12, and he almost seems to be a slap hitter now whenever he's up with men on base.
Jason Bay - Mets - $27 - #8
Projection: .279/.377/.524, 32 HR, 101 R, 107 RBI, 12 SB in 548 AB
2010 stats: .259/.347/.402, 6 HR, 48 R, 47 RBI, 10 SB in 348 AB
Grady Sizemore - Indians - $27 - #9
Projection: .272/.373/.487, 27 HR, 104 R, 81 RBI, 26 SB in 606 AB
2010 stats: .211/.272/.289, 0 HR, 15 R, 13 RBI, 4 SB in 128 AB
B.J. Upton - Rays - $27 - #10
Projection: .277/.365/.481, 24 HR, 84 R, 82 RBI, 34 SB in 541 AB
2010 stats: .237/.322/.424, 18 HR, 89 R, 62 RBI, 42 SB in 536 AB
Thanks to the steals, he was far from a fantasy bust. Still, he never hit for average at any point and his power only showed up in August (10 of his 18 homers came during the final two months).
Others
Nelson Cruz - Rangers - $20 - #30
Projection: .253/.322/.486, 31 HR, 83 R, 98 RBI, 14 SB in 554 AB
2010 stats: .318/.374/.576, 22 HR, 60 R, 78 RBI, 17 SB in 399 AB
Cruz hitting .318 was one of the big surprises of the season. He came in at .260 last year, and I thought that was a little over his head given his strikeout rate.
Carlos Gonzalez - Rockies - $19 - #35
Projection: .270/.334/.480, 22 HR, 91 R, 74 RBI, 21 SB in 571 AB
2010 stats: .336/.376/.598, 34 HR, 111 R, 117 RBI, 26 SB in 587 AB
Josh Hamilton - Rangers - $22 - #25
Projection: .290/.362/.517, 26 HR, 79 R, 98 RBI, 10 SB in 507 AB
2010 stats: .359/.411/.633, 32 HR, 95 R, 100 RBI, 8 SB in 518 AB
Jason Heyward - Braves - $11 - #63
Projection: .267/.343/.440, 16 HR, 71 R, 75 RBI, 11 SB in 502 AB
2010 stats: .277/.393/.456, 18 HR, 83 R, 72 RBI, 11 SB in 520 AB
Carlos Lee - Astros - $25 - #13
Projection: .294/.356/.510, 30 HR, 84 R, 109 RBI, 6 SB in 586 AB
2010 stats: .246/.291/.417, 24 HR, 67 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 605 AB
Adam Lind - Blue Jays - $24 - #15
Projection: .292/.362/.525, 31 HR, 93 R, 106 RBI, 2 SB in 585 AB
2010 stats: .237/.287/.425, 23 HR, 57 R, 72 RBI, 0 SB in 569 AB
Andrew McCutchen - Pirates - $23 - #17
Projection: .275/.347/.431, 15 HR, 96 R, 65 RBI, 37 SB in 603 AB
2010 stats: .286/.365/.449, 16 HR, 94 R, 56 RBI, 33 SB in 570 AB
Angel Pagan - Mets - $3 - #101
Projection: .272/.330/.424, 7 HR, 48 R, 39 RBI, 12 SB in 323 AB
2010 stats: .290/.340/.425, 11 HR, 80 R, 69 RBI, 37 SB in 579 AB
Juan Pierre - White Sox - $21 - #27
Projection: .279/.331/.342, 2 HR, 86 R, 53 RBI, 52 SB in 634 AB
2010 stats: .275/.341/.316, 1 HR, 96 R, 47 RBI, 68 SB in 651 AB
Alex Rios - White Sox - $23 - #20
Projection: .288/.340/.475, 23 HR, 80 R, 84 RBI, 22 SB in 587 AB
2010 stats: .284/.334/.457, 21 HR, 89 R, 88 RBI, 34 SB in 567 AB
Ichiro Suzuki - Mariners - $26 - #11
Projection: .323/.368/.415, 9 HR, 102 R, 49 RBI, 32 SB in 662 AB
2010 stats: .315/.359/.394, 6 HR, 74 R, 43 RBI, 42 SB in 680 AB
Jayson Werth - Phillies - $22 - #24
Projection: .269/.368/.481, 27 HR, 87 R, 93 RBI, 16 SB in 524 AB
2010 stats: .296/.388/.532, 27 HR, 106 R, 85 RBI, 13 SB in 554 AB
It would have been a perfectly explainable stat line had Werth spent the season batting second. Incredibly, though, he finished with 106 runs and 85 RBI even though 89 percent of his at-bats came from the fifth spot in the lineup. It helped that he hit .328 with the bases empty and .186 with RISP.
Here's a look at some of my preseason projections for offensive players. First up is a run-through of some of the notable projections by position. At the end of the column is a chart looking at my OPS projections.
Next to each player's name and team are his preseason AL- or NL-only dollar ranking and his overall position ranking.
Catchers
Preseason Top 5
Joe Mauer - Twins - $34 - #1
Projection: .331/.420/.537, 24 HR, 101 R, 98 RBI, 4 SB in 529 AB
2010 stats: .327/.402/.469, 9 HR, 88 R, 75 RBI, 1 SB in 510 AB
43 doubles, but just nine homers (one at Target Field). In 2010, he finished with 30 doubles and 28 homers.
Victor Martinez - Red Sox - $25 - #2
Projection: .300/.377/.468, 18 HR, 84 R, 99 RBI, 0 SB in 543 AB
2010 stats: .302/.351/.493, 20 HR, 64 R, 79 RBI, 1 SB in 493 AB
Brian McCann - Braves - $23 - #3
Projection: .284/.355/.494, 23 HR, 66 R, 90 RBI, 3 SB in 486 AB
2010 stats: .269/.375/.453, 21 HR, 63 R, 77 RBI, 5 SB in 479 AB
Matt Wieters - Orioles - $19 - #4
Projection: .286/.356/.480, 21 HR, 65 R, 79 RBI, 1 SB in 479 AB
2010 stats: .249/.319/.377, 11 HR, 37 R, 55 RBI, 0 SB in 446 AB
Wieters started out the season with three straight multihit games and then never did it again. I still think the talent is there, but I won't be able to justify going with such a strong projection again. Maybe something like .270/.350/.440 with 15-17 homers.
Russell Martin - Dodgers - $17 - #5
Projection: .274/.370/.408, 12 HR, 72 R, 66 RBI, 10 SB in 468 AB
2010 stats: .248/.347/.332, 5 HR, 45 R, 26 RBI, 6 SB in 331 AB
Others
John Buck - Blue Jays - $4 - #21
Projection: .232/.300/.415, 14 HR, 40 R, 51 RBI, 1 SB in 349 AB
2010 stats: .281/.314/.489, 20 HR, 53 R, 66 RBI, 0 SB in 409 AB
Jason Kendall - Royals - $3 - #27
Projection: .249/.319/.316, 1 HR, 54 R, 38 RBI, 6 SB in 437 AB
2010 stats: .256/.318/.297, 0 HR, 39 R, 37 RBI, 12 SB in 434 AB
Kendall was actually on pace for 537 at-bats when he was shut down with a season-ending shoulder injury on Aug. 30.
Miguel Montero - Diamondbacks - $14 - #7
Projection: .267/.338/.457, 19 HR, 57 R, 69 RBI, 2 SB in 442 AB
2010 stats: .266/.332/.438, 9 HR, 36 R, 43 RBI, 0 SB in 297 AB
Mike Napoli - Angels - $13 - #9
Projection: .252/.355/.477, 21 HR, 59 R, 63 RBI, 4 SB in 365 AB
2010 stats: .238/.316/.468, 26 HR, 60 R, 68 RBI, 4 SB in 453 AB
Jorge Posada - Yankees - $13 - #8
Projection: .266/.359/.465, 19 HR, 58 R, 70 RBI, 1 SB in 402 AB
2010 stats: .248/.357/.454, 18 HR, 49 R, 57 RBI, 3 SB in 383 AB
Buster Posey - Giants - $2 - #32
Projection: .286/.356/.458, 7 HR, 24 R, 27 RBI, 1 SB in 203 AB
2010 stats: .305/.357/.505, 18 HR, 58 R, 67 RBI, 0 SB in 406 AB
Ivan Rodriguez - Nationals - $3 - #28
Projection: .266/.308/.389, 6 HR, 33 R, 36 RBI, 3 SB in 319 AB
2010 stats: .266/.294/.347, 4 HR, 32 R, 49 RBI, 2 SB in 398 AB
Kurt Suzuki - Athletics - $14 - #6
Projection: .273/.335/.398, 12 HR, 66 R, 73 RBI, 4 SB in 517 AB
2010 stats: .242/.303/.366, 13 HR, 55 R, 71 RBI, 3 SB in 495 AB
If the A's can bring in some real hitters this winter and drop Suzuki down to the seventh spot in the lineup where he belongs, he'll go into the potential fantasy bust category for 2011. He spent most of this season batting third and fourth.
First Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Albert Pujols - Cardinals - $41 - #1
Projection: .325/.443/.624, 41 HR, 113 R, 122 RBI, 10 SB in 551 AB
2010 stats: .312/.414/.596, 42 HR, 115 R, 118 RBI, 14 SB in 587 AB
Miguel Cabrera - Tigers - $33 - #2
Projection: .315/.391/.573, 39 HR, 100 R, 118 RBI, 3 SB in 604 AB
2010 stats: .328/.420/.622, 38 HR, 111 R, 126 RBI, 3 SB in 548 AB
Mark Teixeira - Yankees - $33 - #3
Projection: .298/.392/.570, 41 HR, 109 R, 125 RBI, 1 SB in 605 AB
2010 stats: .256/.365/.481, 33 HR, 113 R, 108 RBI, 0 SB in 601 AB
Teixeira lost 100 points of OPS from his first season in New York, yet still led the American League in runs scored. It's good to be a Yankee.
Ryan Howard - Phillies - $31 - #4
Projection: .269/.362/.561, 47 HR, 99 R, 133 RBI, 3 SB in 592 AB
2010 stats: .276/.353/.505, 31 HR, 87 R, 108 RBI, 1 SB in 550 AB
Prince Fielder - Brewers - $31 - #5
Projection: .288/.406/.570, 42 HR, 98 R, 126 RBI, 2 SB in 577 AB
2010 stats: .261/.401/.471, 32 HR, 94 R, 83 RBI, 1 SB in 578 AB
I projected him to lose 32 points of slugging and 15 RBI. He lost 131 points of slugging and a whopping 58 RBI.
Others
Lance Berkman - Astros/Yankees - $19 - #12
Projection: .281/.401/.506, 27 HR, 91 R, 87 RBI, 5 SB in 508 AB
2010 stats: .248/.368/.413, 14 HR, 48 R, 58 RBI, 3 SB in 404 AB
Billy Butler - Royals - $20 - #11
Projection: .304/.372/.500, 23 HR, 86 R, 93 RBI, 1 SB in 586 AB
2010 stats: .318/.388/.469, 15 HR, 77 R, 78 RBI, 0 SB in 595 AB
All of those singles and doubles just don't result in many runs and RBI in Kansas City's lineup.
Adam Dunn - Nationals - $19 - #13
Projection: .245/.378/.504, 37 HR, 93 R, 100 RBI, 2 SB in 542 AB
2010 stats: 260/.356/.536, 38 HR, 85 R, 103 RBI, 0 SB in 558 AB
Adrian Gonzalez - Padres - $25 - #7
Projection: .283/.391/.542, 38 HR, 101 R, 104 RBI, 0 SB in 579 AB
2010 stats: .298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 87 R, 101 RBI, 0 SB in 591 AB
Paul Konerko - White Sox - $15 - #17
Projection: .266/.349/.466, 28 HR, 76 R, 92 RBI, 0 SB in 552 AB
2010 stats: .312/.393/.584, 39 HR, 89 R, 111 RBI, 0 SB in 548 AB
A career year at age 34 hardly appeared to be in the cards. Konerko finished with OPSs of 841, 783 and 842 the previous three years. I was actually projecting him to best his totals in runs and RBI from any of those three seasons.
Adam LaRoche - Diamondbacks - $16 - #16
Projection: .275/.351/.483, 25 HR, 82 R, 98 RBI, 1 SB in 557 AB
2010 stats: .261/.320/.468, 25 HR, 75 R, 100 RBI, 0 SB in 560 AB
Derrek Lee - Cubs - $20 - #10
Projection: .290/.375/.496, 25 HR, 91 R, 90 RBI, 4 SB in 568 AB
2010 stats: .260/.347/.428, 19 HR, 80 R, 80 RBI, 1 SB in 547 AB
David Ortiz - Red Sox - $16 - #2 DH
Projection: .263/.358/.504, 28 HR, 84 R, 97 RBI, 1 SB in 502 AB
2010 stats: .270/.370/.529, 32 HR, 86 R, 102 RBI, 0 SB in 518 AB
Carlos Pena - Rays - $18 - #14
Projection: .243/.370/.500, 33 HR, 89 R, 106 RBI, 1 SB in 502 AB
2010 stats: .196/.325/.407, 28 HR, 64 R, 84 RBI, 5 SB in 484 AB
Sure, it's maybe the greatest season a sub-.200 hitter has ever had, but that's not a lot of consolation to his fantasy owners.
Joey Votto - Reds - $22 - #9
Projection: .291/.372/.514, 27 HR, 92 R, 94 RBI, 7 SB in 564 AB
2010 stats: .324/.424/.600, 37 HR, 106 R, 113 RBI, 16 SB in 547 AB
Second Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Chase Utley - Phillies - $30 - #1
Projection: .291/.390/.509, 27 HR, 107 R, 95 RBI, 16 SB in 574 AB
2010 stats: .275/.387/.445, 16 HR, 75 R, 65 RBI, 13 SB in 425 AB
Ian Kinsler - Rangers - $29 - #2
Projection: .285/.361/.485, 24 HR, 86 R, 91 RBI, 26 SB in 565 AB
2010 stats: .286/.382/.412, 9 HR, 73 R, 45 RBI, 15 SB in 391 AB
Robinson Cano - Yankees - $28 - #3
Projection: .311/.350/.510, 27 HR, 90 R, 102 RBI, 4 SB in 620 AB
2010 stats: .319/.381/.534, 29 HR, 103 R, 109 RBI, 3 SB in 626 AB
If the Yankees had hit Cano third or fourth all year, he'd be in line for his first MVP award next month. He actually did hit cleanup 26 times and drove in 28 runs in those games.
Brandon Phillips - Reds - $27 - #4
Projection: .282/.334/.467, 23 HR, 86 R, 90 RBI, 24 SB in 582 AB
2010 stats: .275/.332/.430, 18 HR, 100 R, 59 RBI, 16 SB in 626 AB
Dustin Pedroia - Red Sox - $26 - #5
Projection: .313/.383/.462, 14 HR, 112 R, 77 RBI, 14 SB in 617 AB
2010 stats: .288/.367/.493, 12 HR, 53 R, 41 RBI, 9 SB in 302 AB
Others
Aaron Hill - Blue Jays - $23 - #7
Projection: .284/.341/.475, 26 HR, 97 R, 90 RBI, 6 SB in 638 AB
2010 stats: .205/.271/.394, 26 HR, 70 R, 68 RBI, 2 SB in 528 AB
Omar Infante - Braves - $1 - #35
Projection: .284/.332/.399, 5 HR, 40 R, 36 RBI, 3 SB in 303 AB
2010 stats: .321/.359/.416, 8 HR, 65 R, 47 RBI, 7 SB in 471 AB
Kelly Johnson - Diamondbacks - $14 - #12
Projection: .280/.357/.455, 15 HR, 86 R, 69 RBI, 9 SB in 525 AB
2010 stats: .284/.370/.496, 26 HR, 93 R, 71 RBI, 13 SB in 585 AB
Jose Lopez - Mariners - $17 - #10
Projection: .283/.318/.454, 21 HR, 75 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 604 AB
2010 stats: .239/.270/.339, 10 HR, 49 R, 58 RBI, 3 SB in 593 AB
Such a remarkably terrible season from start to finish. By month, Lopez finished with OPSs of 545, 580, 683, 581, 650 and 610.
Placido Polanco - Phillies - $12 - #13
Projection: .297/.341/.403, 9 HR, 91 R, 60 RBI, 6 SB in 583 AB
2010 stats: .298/.339/.386, 6 HR, 76 R, 52 RBI, 5 SB in 554 AB
Notice how often I was over on runs and RBI even on the good projections. I didn't foresee run scoring suddenly dropping by five percent across the board.
Martin Prado - Braves - $11 - #14
Projection: .298/.351/.428, 9 HR, 85 R, 67 RBI, 4 SB in 530 AB
2010 stats: .307/.350/.459, 15 HR, 100 R, 66 RBI, 5 SB in 599 AB
Dan Uggla - Marlins - $16 - #11
Projection: .248/.347/.475, 29 HR, 83 R, 94 RBI, 3 SB in 545 AB
2010 stats: .287/.369/.508, 33 HR, 100 R, 105 RBI, 4 SB in 589 AB
Looking back, I probably should have given more consideration to Uggla lowering his strikeout rate in 2009. However, he actually hit just .243 last year. This year, the strikeout rate stayed down and his batting average took a big jump. I'll probably go with something around .260 next year.
Rickie Weeks - Brewers - $10 - #16
Projection: .261/.358/.426, 15 HR, 85 R, 47 RBI, 16 SB in 441 AB
2010 stats: .269/.366/.464, 29 HR, 112 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB in 651 AB
Ben Zobrist - Rays - $20 - #9
Projection: .268/.363/.465, 22 HR, 81 R, 86 RBI, 16 SB in 529 AB
2010 stats: .238/.346/.353, 10 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 24 SB in 541 AB
One of the trickiest 2010 projections. Zobrist came in at .297/.405/.543 during his remarkable 2009 season. I expected his average to come down, but I really had no idea how much of the power he'd hold on to. As it turned out, he went from 27 homers to 10 and seven triples to two. He actually finished with 28 doubles both years. I projected a 120-point drop in OPS, but he ended up coming at 249 (948 to 699).
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Third Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Alex Rodriguez - Yankees - $36 - #1
Projection: .285/.394/.548, 39 HR, 113 R, 119 RBI, 17 SB in 557 AB
2010 stats: .270/.341/.506, 30 HR, 74 R, 125 RBI, 4 SB in 522 AB
A-Rod's chances of breaking the all-time runs scored record took a hit this year, while he looks like a better bet than ever to top Hank Aaron's career RBI mark. Through 2008, A-Rod had scored 1,605 runs and driven in 1,606. However, he's scored just 152 runs and knocked in 225 since. This was also just the second season in his career in which he didn't finish with at least 14 steals.
David Wright - Mets - $35 - #2
Projection: .310/.398/.528, 28 HR, 102 R, 105 RBI, 24 SB in 600 AB
2010 stats: .283/.354/.503, 29 HR, 87 R, 103 RBI, 19 SB in 587 AB
Evan Longoria - Rays - $30 - #3
Projection: .284/.369/.544, 35 HR, 102 R, 121 RBI, 8 SB in 570 AB
2010 stats: .294/.372/.507, 22 HR, 96 R, 104 RBI, 15 SB in 574 AB
Mark Reynolds - Diamondbacks - $26 - #4
Projection: .256/.344/.512, 37 HR, 96 R, 111 RBI, 12 SB in 582 AB
2010 stats: .198/.320/.433, 32 HR, 79 R, 85 RBI, 7 SB in 499 AB
Reynolds had some incredible splits. He his just .150 with the bases empty. On the other hand, 17 of his 32 homers came with men on and he hit an exceptional .276/.414/.619 in 134 at-bats with RISP. On yet another hand, he was 0-for-10 with eight strikeouts with the bases loaded.
Before Reynolds finished at 85 and Carlos Pena came in at 84 this year, no one had ever driven in more than 64 runs with a sub-.200 average.
Pablo Sandoval - Giants - $25 - #5
Projection: .316/.373/.532, 26 HR, 89 R, 97 RBI, 4 SB in 594 AB
2010 stats: .268/.323/.409, 13 HR, 61 R, 63 RBI, 3 SB in 563 AB
Others
Jose Bautista - Blue Jays - $1 - #35
Projection: .243/.331/.425, 10 HR, 36 R, 34 RBI, 2 SB in 259 AB
2010 stats: .260/.378/.617, 54 HR, 109 R, 124 RBI, 9 SB in 569 AB
Adrian Beltre - Red Sox - $16 - #11
Projection: .275/.333/.456, 21 HR, 80 R, 87 RBI, 9 SB in 568 AB
2010 stats: .321/.365/.553, 28 HR, 84 R, 102 RBI, 2 SB in 589 AB
Pedro Feliz - Astros/Cardinals - $3 - #31
Projection: .250/.296/.403, 16 HR, 47 R, 64 RBI, 1 SB in 476 AB
2010 stats: .218/.240/.293, 5 HR, 36 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 409 AB
Being wrong a lot is the nature of the business, but for me, it's most frustrating to give someone a poor projection and then watch them blow it out of the water with how bad they are. I mean, I doubt anyone who went by my projections ended up with Feliz on their NL-only rosters. So that's good. But I still missed by 166 points of OPS!
Chone Figgins - Mariners - $19 - #10
Projection: .277/.371/.359, 4 HR, 93 R, 50 RBI, 40 SB in 563 AB
2010 stats: .259/.340/.306, 1 HR, 62 R, 35 RBI, 42 SB in 602 AB
Aramis Ramirez - Cubs - $21 - #8
Projection: .293/.368/.514, 27 HR, 84 R, 105 RBI, 1 SB in 539 AB
2010 stats: .241/.294/.452, 25 HR, 61 R, 83 RBI, 0 SB in 465 AB
Michael Young - Rangers - $20 - #9
Projection: .296/.350/.431, 15 HR, 95 R, 87 RBI, 7 SB in 626 AB
2010 stats: .284/.330/.444, 21 HR, 99 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 656 AB
Ryan Zimmerman - Nationals - $24 - #6
Projection: .289/.360/.506, 29 HR, 99 R, 103 RBI, 4 SB in 613 AB
2010 stats: .307/.388/.510, 25 HR, 85 R, 85 RBI, 4 SB in 525 AB
Shortstops
Preseason Top 5
Hanley Ramirez - Marlins - $42 - #1
Projection: .321/.403/.549, 28 HR, 108 R, 104 RBI, 31 SB in 563 AB
2010 stats: .300/.378/.475, 21 HR, 92 R, 76 RBI, 32 SB in 543 AB
Even though he was moving into the No. 3 spot in the order, I projected Ramirez to finish with just 83 RBI in 2009, thinking the Marlins would be very weak at the top. Of course, Chris Coghlan burst on the scene two months in and Ramirez went on to hit .373 with RISP to finish with 106 RBI. This season played out much closer to how I thought 2009 would.
Jose Reyes - Mets - $30 - #2
Projection: .288/.359/.454, 15 HR, 101 R, 62 RBI, 42 SB in 597 AB
2010 stats: .282/.321/.428, 11 HR, 83 R, 54 RBI, 30 SB in 563 AB
With all of the Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez, Oliver Perez and David Wright strikeout drama, no one seemed to notice that Reyes took a real step backwards. He walked 66 times on his way to posting a .358 OBP in 2008 and he had 18 walks and a .355 OBP in 36 games before getting hurt last year. This year, he drew just 31 walks in 133 games.
Jimmy Rollins - Phillies - $28 - #3
Projection: .271/.327/.439, 18 HR, 110 R, 71 RBI, 34 SB in 668 AB
2010 stats: .243/.320/.374, 8 HR, 48 R, 41 RBI, 17 SB in 350 AB
Troy Tulowitzki - Rockies - $28 - #4
Projection: .293/.372/.490, 24 HR, 97 R, 101 RBI, 11 SB in 573 AB
2010 stats: .315/.381/.568, 27 HR, 89 R, 95 RBI, 11 SB in 470 AB
Derek Jeter - Yankees - $26 - #5
Projection: .298/.372/.432, 16 HR, 108 R, 73 RBI, 17 SB in 611 AB
2010 stats: .270/.340/.370, 10 HR, 111 R, 67 RBI, 18 SB in 663 AB
Tied Juan Pierre for the major league lead in outs made with 515. I thought it was actually a pretty gutsy call projecting Jeter to hit .298. He came in at .334 in 2009, and he hadn't finished under .300 since 2004.
Others
Elvis Andrus - Rangers - $23 - #7
Projection: .274/.335/.388, 8 HR, 82 R, 51 RBI, 45 SB in 533 AB
2010 stats: .265/.342/.301, 0 HR, 88 R, 35 RBI, 32 SB in 588 AB
I had Andrus projected to hit three homers and slug .316 as a rookie in 2009, but he surprised me finishing with six bombs and a .373 slugging percentage. Logic dictated that he'd do a little better as a sophomore. Instead, he went from delivering 31 extra-base hits in 480 at-bats to 18 in 588 at-bats. He was also a disappointment as a basestealer, though he's showed his potential there in the postseason (7-for-8 so far).
Jason Bartlett - Rays - $18 - #11
Projection: .282/.347/.404, 9 HR, 86 R, 57 RBI, 26 SB in 539 AB
2010 stats: .254/.324/.350, 7 HR, 71 R, 47 RBI, 11 SB in 468 AB
Stephen Drew - Diamondbacks - $16 - #13
Projection: .285/.349/.476, 18 HR, 90 R, 69 RBI, 6 SB in 548 AB
2010 stats: .278/.352/.458, 15 HR, 83 R, 61 RBI, 10 SB in 565 AB
Yunel Escobar - Braves - $19 - #9
Projection: .304/.378/.452, 15 HR, 83 R, 84 RBI, 5 SB in 562 AB
2010 stats: .256/.337/.318, 4 HR, 60 R, 35 RBI, 6 SB in 497 AB
Alexei Ramirez - White Sox - $24 - #6
Projection: .285/.339/.465, 23 HR, 74 R, 77 RBI, 21 SB in 561 AB
2010 stats: .282/.313/.431, 18 HR, 83 R, 70 RBI, 13 SB in 585 AB
Outfielders
Preseason Top 10
Ryan Braun - Brewers - $39 - #1
Projection: .309/.373/.575, 38 HR, 113 R, 110 RBI, 18 SB in 621 AB
2010 stats: .304/.366/.501, 25 HR, 101 R, 103 RBI, 14 SB in 619 AB
I think the power will come back next year. Still, Crawford will be my No. 1 fantasy outfielder if he joins the Red Sox or Yankees. Braun would probably hold on to the top spot if Crawford ends up in Anaheim.
Carl Crawford - Rays - $35 - #2
Projection: .310/.362/.477, 16 HR, 103 R, 79 RBI, 51 SB in 596 AB
2010 stats: .307/.356/.495, 19 HR, 110 R, 90 RBI, 47 SB in 600 AB
Matt Kemp - Dodgers - $34 - #3
Projection: .293/.350/.511, 29 HR, 101 R, 102 RBI, 31 SB in 611 AB
2010 stats: .249/.310/.450, 28 HR, 82 R, 89 RBI, 19 SB in 602 AB
Jacoby Ellsbury - Red Sox - $32 - #4
Projection: .296/.356/.421, 11 HR, 106 R, 63 RBI, 57 SB in 615 AB
2010 stats: .192/.241/.244, 0 HR, 10 R, 5 RBI, 7 SB in 78 AB
Matt Holliday - Cardinals - $30 - #5
Projection: .308/.403/.520, 26 HR, 95 R, 117 RBI, 12 SB in 569 AB
2010 stats: .312/.390/.532, 28 HR, 95 R, 103 RBI, 9 SB in 596 AB
How did the Cardinals get such seasons from Pujols, Holliday, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter and still finish 86-76 in the game's worst division?
Justin Upton - Diamondbacks - $28 - #6
Projection: .286/.363/.531, 31 HR, 96 R, 102 RBI, 17 SB in 588 AB
2010 stats: .273/.356/.442, 17 HR, 73 R, 69 RBI, 18 SB in 495 AB
Nick Markakis - Orioles - $28 - #7
Projection: .307/.388/.501, 24 HR, 102 R, 108 RBI, 9 SB in 613 AB
2010 stats: .297/.370/.436, 12 HR, 79 R, 60 RBI, 7 SB in 629 AB
Please fire hitting coach Terry Crowley. Markakis' homer total has gone from 23 to 20 to 18 to 12, and he almost seems to be a slap hitter now whenever he's up with men on base.
Jason Bay - Mets - $27 - #8
Projection: .279/.377/.524, 32 HR, 101 R, 107 RBI, 12 SB in 548 AB
2010 stats: .259/.347/.402, 6 HR, 48 R, 47 RBI, 10 SB in 348 AB
Grady Sizemore - Indians - $27 - #9
Projection: .272/.373/.487, 27 HR, 104 R, 81 RBI, 26 SB in 606 AB
2010 stats: .211/.272/.289, 0 HR, 15 R, 13 RBI, 4 SB in 128 AB
B.J. Upton - Rays - $27 - #10
Projection: .277/.365/.481, 24 HR, 84 R, 82 RBI, 34 SB in 541 AB
2010 stats: .237/.322/.424, 18 HR, 89 R, 62 RBI, 42 SB in 536 AB
Thanks to the steals, he was far from a fantasy bust. Still, he never hit for average at any point and his power only showed up in August (10 of his 18 homers came during the final two months).
Others
Nelson Cruz - Rangers - $20 - #30
Projection: .253/.322/.486, 31 HR, 83 R, 98 RBI, 14 SB in 554 AB
2010 stats: .318/.374/.576, 22 HR, 60 R, 78 RBI, 17 SB in 399 AB
Cruz hitting .318 was one of the big surprises of the season. He came in at .260 last year, and I thought that was a little over his head given his strikeout rate.
Carlos Gonzalez - Rockies - $19 - #35
Projection: .270/.334/.480, 22 HR, 91 R, 74 RBI, 21 SB in 571 AB
2010 stats: .336/.376/.598, 34 HR, 111 R, 117 RBI, 26 SB in 587 AB
Josh Hamilton - Rangers - $22 - #25
Projection: .290/.362/.517, 26 HR, 79 R, 98 RBI, 10 SB in 507 AB
2010 stats: .359/.411/.633, 32 HR, 95 R, 100 RBI, 8 SB in 518 AB
Jason Heyward - Braves - $11 - #63
Projection: .267/.343/.440, 16 HR, 71 R, 75 RBI, 11 SB in 502 AB
2010 stats: .277/.393/.456, 18 HR, 83 R, 72 RBI, 11 SB in 520 AB
Carlos Lee - Astros - $25 - #13
Projection: .294/.356/.510, 30 HR, 84 R, 109 RBI, 6 SB in 586 AB
2010 stats: .246/.291/.417, 24 HR, 67 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 605 AB
Adam Lind - Blue Jays - $24 - #15
Projection: .292/.362/.525, 31 HR, 93 R, 106 RBI, 2 SB in 585 AB
2010 stats: .237/.287/.425, 23 HR, 57 R, 72 RBI, 0 SB in 569 AB
Andrew McCutchen - Pirates - $23 - #17
Projection: .275/.347/.431, 15 HR, 96 R, 65 RBI, 37 SB in 603 AB
2010 stats: .286/.365/.449, 16 HR, 94 R, 56 RBI, 33 SB in 570 AB
Angel Pagan - Mets - $3 - #101
Projection: .272/.330/.424, 7 HR, 48 R, 39 RBI, 12 SB in 323 AB
2010 stats: .290/.340/.425, 11 HR, 80 R, 69 RBI, 37 SB in 579 AB
Juan Pierre - White Sox - $21 - #27
Projection: .279/.331/.342, 2 HR, 86 R, 53 RBI, 52 SB in 634 AB
2010 stats: .275/.341/.316, 1 HR, 96 R, 47 RBI, 68 SB in 651 AB
Alex Rios - White Sox - $23 - #20
Projection: .288/.340/.475, 23 HR, 80 R, 84 RBI, 22 SB in 587 AB
2010 stats: .284/.334/.457, 21 HR, 89 R, 88 RBI, 34 SB in 567 AB
Ichiro Suzuki - Mariners - $26 - #11
Projection: .323/.368/.415, 9 HR, 102 R, 49 RBI, 32 SB in 662 AB
2010 stats: .315/.359/.394, 6 HR, 74 R, 43 RBI, 42 SB in 680 AB
Jayson Werth - Phillies - $22 - #24
Projection: .269/.368/.481, 27 HR, 87 R, 93 RBI, 16 SB in 524 AB
2010 stats: .296/.388/.532, 27 HR, 106 R, 85 RBI, 13 SB in 554 AB
It would have been a perfectly explainable stat line had Werth spent the season batting second. Incredibly, though, he finished with 106 runs and 85 RBI even though 89 percent of his at-bats came from the fifth spot in the lineup. It helped that he hit .328 with the bases empty and .186 with RISP.
