MLB Fantasy News 2010

[HacheMan]

2010 NL Outfield Overview
NL Outfield Overview

I think the elite NL outfielders are all rated rather appropriately. I have the top five as Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton and then Jason Bay, before a significant drop-off to Carlos Lee at No. 6. Bay might be the best value pick in the group.

For my complete projections and writeups of over 1,000 players, check out Rotoworld's online draft guide.

Underrated

Carlos Lee (Astros) - Lee is likely done as a candidate to reach double figures in steals, but he's hit .300 in four straight seasons and driven in 100 runs in five straight. If not for a broken hand in 2008, he might also be working on a streak of five straight seasons of 160 games played. In a better lineup, he'd be a pretty good bet for 90 runs scored and 120 RBI, but the Astros should still be able to get him to 80 and 110 or so. That he's slipping in early drafts this year is probably the result of him fading to 26 homers last year. I rate him as the No. 13 outfielder in mixed leagues, though. He's one of the safest picks in the top 20.

Conor Jackson (Diamondbacks) - I think it's safe just to write off Jackson's 2009, when he hit .182 in 99 at-bats through mid-May and then missed the rest of the season with Valley Fever. He's completely over the illness now, as he demonstrated by going down to the Dominican Republic over the winter and hitting .425/.561/.589 in 94 plate appearances. The Diamondbacks are probably going to bat him second in between Stephen Drew and Justin Upton, giving him the chance to put up solid numbers in all five categories. No, he's probably not much more than a 15-homer guy, but he hit .300 and stole 10 bases in 2008 and he could score a bunch of runs for 5x5 leaguers this year.

Chris Young (Diamondbacks) - I'm typically guilty of overhyping a couple too many Diamondbacks every year, in part because the ballpark is such a haven for hitters, but if it ever all clicks for the team, the results could be incredible. Everyone in the team's lineup has impressive upside, and we saw Upton, Mark Reynolds and Miguel Montero break through last year. Young has gone in the other direction, of course. Since his 32-homer, 27-steal season in 2007, he's been a bust as a fantasy outfielder, and he was actually sent back to Triple-A for a time last year. Still, the power hasn't gone anywhere and he could go back to stealing bases if he wants to. There's no reason he can't be a $20 fantasy outfielder even as a .250 hitter. Of course, he came in at .212 last year, so he has some work to do. But it'd be crazy to ignore him if he could be had at $10 or so.

Overrated

Manny Ramirez (Dodgers) - From a fantasy perspective, I'm not sure Ramirez is anything more than Lee with a worse chance of staying healthy. A hand injury took a toll on Ramirez's numbers after he returned from his steroids suspension last year, and that should be in the past now. However, Ramirez turns 38 in March, and outside of his two-month run at the end of 2008, he hasn't been a dominant force in three years. If he gets 550 at-bats, then he's probably a top-15 outfielder, but I'm ranking him 22nd for now.

Jayson Werth (Phillies) - Durability is an even bigger factor here. Prior to 2009, Werth's career high in at-bats was 418. He served five stints on the disabled list between 2005 and 2008, with one costing him the entire 2006 season. If Werth reaches 550 at-bats again, he can be penciled in for about 30 homers and 100 RBI. However, the price just doesn't make sense this year. Many are treating him as though he's a top-10 outfielder, but paying for the best-case scenario is ill-advised.

Shane Victorino (Phillies) - I wouldn't be targeting any of Philadelphia's outfielders this year, but Victorino may well provide the worst value of the bunch. A big problem is that he's moving from second to seventh in the lineup. Victorino has scored 100 runs in back-to-back seasons, but there's no way that's going to happen again if he hits ahead of Carlos Ruiz and the pitcher all season. He's also something of a durability concern with the way he throws his body around, though he has played in 146 and 156 games the last two seasons. I doubt he'll stand out in any category this year, so I'm ranking him 38th in the outfield.

Brad Hawpe (Rockies) - Hawpe has kept his OPS in the 900 range four straight seasons and he's been pretty durable, but he's a 30-year-old who has reached 90 runs or RBI once in his career (116 RBI in 2007). He's also never hit .300 or finished with 30 homers. He has three steals in three years. While he'd be a great fit in the middle of any major league lineup, he's rarely been an excellent fantasy outfielder and he's likely already peaked.

Sleepers

Jason Heyward (Braves) - OK, who didn't see this one coming? Heyward isn't actually a sleeper anymore. He may be approaching the point at which he's a mid-round pick in mixed leagues. He's an awfully dangerous selection at that price -- the Braves have some big financial incentives to justify sending him down for two months -- but it's becoming more and more likely that he'll be their Opening Day right fielder. My best guess if he gets 500 at-bats: a .270 average, 20-22 homers and 80 RBI. He could also swipe 10 bases. I doubt he'll be a $20 player as a rookie, but he might end up being worth at least $15.

Jonny Gomes (Reds) - It's hard to believe that Gomes' .267/.338/.541 line with 20 homers in 281 at-bats last year didn't result in any market in free agency. The Reds re-signed him for $800,000 and have him battling Chris Dickerson and others for the left-field job. Gomes traditionally feasts on lefties, but he also put up an 858 OPS against righties in limited action for Cincinnati last year. I think the easier league and Great American Ballpark suit him very well, and a 30-homer season is within reach in 2010.

Jim Edmonds (Brewers) - Edmonds has plenty of work to do to make the Brewers, considering that the team already has a left-handed-hitting fourth outfielder due $2 million in Jody Gerut. There probably won't be room for both, but if Edmonds shows something this spring, someone will take him on. He may well find himself a better situation elsewhere. Edmonds hit .256/.369/.568 in his 250 at-bats for the Cubs in 2008 before taking last season off. The power and on-base ability should still be there to make him an asset against righties, though he's almost certainly not a center fielder any longer.

 

[HacheMan]

Down Goes Joe Nathan
Joe Nathan has a torn UCL, considering Tommy John surgery.

In a somber meeting with the media Tuesday morning in Twins camp, closer Joe Nathan acknowledged that he has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament and may require Tommy John surgery. It's a tough blow for fantasy owners and Twins fans alike. Nathan was widely considered the top fantasy option at closer this season, but there's a strong chance that he won't throw another pitch until 2011.

Nathan, 35, has been a model of consistency since taking over ninth-inning duties for Minnesota back in 2004 and will be sorely missed if he is unable to pitch this season. In the past six years the Houston, Texas native has not once finished with an ERA above 2.96, nor has he saved fewer than 36 games. Last season he fanned 89 batters in 68 2/3 innings for a three-year high 11.67 K/9. The right-hander also compiled an impressive 2.10 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and a career-best 47 saves in 52 chances.

Nathan has a meeting with Dr. James Andrews later this week to discuss his options moving forward. In all likelihood, he will opt to undergo the reconstructive elbow procedure commonly referred to as Tommy John surgery. We've already knocked him down several tiers in our Rotoworld Draft Guide and chances are he'll be left completely out of the fantasy equation this season.

Now we're stuck with this question: Who will take over closing duties for the Twins in 2010? Our best guess is Jon Rauch, a 6-foot-11 right-hander with tattoos littered across his upper body and a late-innings attitude. He had an uninspiring 3.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 49/23 K/BB ratio in 70 frames last season and has never tallied more than 20 saves, but he's one of the few relievers on Minnesota's depth chart with experience closing games. That shouldn't matter, but it does, and Rauch needs to be either picked up or drafted in every mixed league.

Matt Guerrier probably makes more sense as Nathan's stand-in because of the dominance he's shown in a setup role, but Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has often used the righty for more than a single inning and probably doesn't want to lose that flexibility. Guerrier, 31, posted a 2.36 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and 33 holds in a career-high 79 appearances last season.

Stephen Strasburg looks electric in spring debut.

Thanks to MLB Network, much of the world got its first look Tuesday at highly touted prospect and No. 1 overall pick from 2009, Stephen Strasburg. He pitched two scoreless frames in his spring debut against the Tigers, fanning two batters (including Detroit's Miguel Cabrera) and issuing no walks. He hit 97 MPH consistently on the MASN gun and Nationals manager Jim Riggleman wouldn't rule out the idea of Strasburg beginning this season in the major leagues during a post-game chat with reporters.

"We'll make a decision about whether he's on the ballclub or not," said Riggleman. "But I think in his mind, he's doing the right thing. He's just competing to get hitters out, and if that puts him on the ballclub, that would be his wish I'm sure. I guess indirectly, he is competing for a spot on the club in his mind. We'll make that call as an organization. But as far as he knows, he's like everybody else trying to make the club."

Whether having Strasburg on the Opening Day roster would be a good idea or not, it sure is fun to think about. His average draft position of 306 (according to MockDraftCentral.com) is going to be on the rise in the next few weeks either way.

Jose Reyes may or may not have an overactive thyroid.

The Mets ordered shortstop Jose Reyes back to New York last week after tests on his surgically-repaired right hamstring revealed a higher-than-normal thyroid level. Reyes has been bogged down by injuries for over a year and expressed his frustration upon hearing the news to MLB.com's Marty Noble:

"I don't know what's going on, this is the first time I've ever had something like this," Reyes said. "I have to be worried. I can't do anything. ... I'm getting tired of it. My team is always playing without me. I want to play."

The tests were supposed to be completed by Monday, but we heard nothing about Reyes or a thyroid condition until Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News caught wind of a press release Tuesday evening that seemed to confirm the original diagnosis. Soon after that news was revealed, Reyes spoke to ESPN Deportes' Enrique Rojas and denied it all:

"The specialists who took care of me in New York have told me that I'm fine and that there's nothing wrong with my thyroid," Reyes said. "The test showed that I'm fine. We just have to wait for the results of the additional test. The (doctors) found inflammation in my throat and no medicine to treat the thyroid or any other condition has been prescribed."

And now we play the waiting game. Overactive thyroids are perfectly treatable and such a condition would only keep Reyes out of action for another few weeks, but it's hard to say what exactly is going on. One thing's for sure: The Mets need some new PR people.

Outfield prospect Jason Heyward continues to rake in Braves camp.

Jason Heyward, widely regarded as baseball's No. 1 position prospect, stands 6-foot-4 and doesn't turn 21 until late August. He batted .323/.408/.555 last season with 17 home runs and 63 RBI in 422 plate appearances between Single-A Myrtle Beach, Double-A Mississipi and Triple-A Gwinett. Heyward has shot through the Braves' farm system like a bullet and is putting on a show this spring in major league camp. His batting practice sessions have already become legend and he's putting up impressive numbers in spring exhibition games. All the hoopla brought out a prediction Tuesday from the Atlanta Journal Constitution's Dave O'Brien:

"Let me start by saying, I think Jason Heyward is going to be the Braves' right fielder on opening day," wrote O'Brien. "There. I'm on the record."

It's becoming a real possibility that Heyward will leave camp with the Braves and all fantasy owners should take notice. In fact, we've already given him a slight bump in the Rotoworld Draft Guide. The kid has a perfect combination of speed and power, and he can certainly do some damage in his rookie season. ZiPS, a highly respected projections service, has the youngster hitting .275/.341/.429 with 12 homers and six stolen bases in 448 major league at-bats this season. We're thinking he'll do even better if given the opportunity.

 

[HacheMan]

Risers and Fallers
We've moved into the second week of the exhibition schedule, which means many fantasy drafts are already underway. With that in mind, I figured now was as good a time as any to take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers in recent mock drafts.

As you'll see below, players are fluctuating for a variety of reasons, some due to injury, others due to hype or market adjustment. Just to get it out of the way first, Joe Nathan has dropped the sharpest in recent days, and for good reason. We don't have to rehash all of those details here. If Nathan is truly on the shelf for the duration of the season, the situation for saves in Minnesota figures to be rather dicey. Leave it to somebody else to draft Jon Rauch or Matt Guerrier. I certainly wouldn't recommend it.

Remember, you can always stay in the loop with the constantly updating ADP (Average Draft Position) in the new Rotoworld Draft Guide, chock full of player projections, cheat sheets, pretty much everything to get you ready for draft day. And with that effective salesmanship out of the way, let's dig into the numbers.

[Note: ADP data courtesy of MockDraftCentral.com]

Risers

Jason Heyward (OF, Braves) Current ADP: 230 Two weeks ago: 306

Who else? Heyward has gained the most traction in mock drafts over the past two weeks and it's pretty easy to see why. He's taken on an almost-mythic quality this spring. I'll spare you the numbers. While gaudy and impressive, they are pretty useless to spout for fantasy purposes. The thing to know is this: Heyward is making it very difficult for the Braves to send him to Triple-A Gwinnett to start the season. And even if they do, which is becoming more unlikely by the minute, he'll only be delayed for a few weeks, similar to Evan Longoria two seasons ago. Heyward is a no-brainer at his current ADP, obviously, but he's no sleeper anymore. Look for him to become a mid-round selection in short order.

Ben Sheets (SP, Athletics) Current ADP: 216 Two weeks ago: 239

Brett Anderson is actually the top gainer among starting pitchers inside the top 150 (Current ADP: 150), but I already hinted at that possibility early last week. So instead of Anderson, I'll focus on his new teammate, who is gaining similar momentum in recent mocks. Sheets, who was signed to an incentive-laden one-year contract by the Athletics in January, hasn't fared so well over his first two Cactus League appearances, but fantasy owners are just thrilled he's actually healthy for once. Remember, Sheets ranks among the top 10 active pitchers in both WHIP and BB/9, so if he can find his command -- and his curveball -- he'll make for an outstanding late-round gamble. The move back to the American League shouldn't hurt him too bad, as he'll be pitching half of his games in the Oakland Coliseum. A mid-season trade could help his win potential.

Julio Borbon (OF, Rangers) Current ADP: 152 Two weeks ago: 196

Borbon hasn't enjoyed a Heyward-like jump over the past two weeks, but he's actually been pretty darn close. He's currently sitting between Nyjer Morgan (ADP: 129) and Rajai Davis (ADP: 157) among the mid-round speed merchants. Fantasy owners were given a tantalizing 46-game sample with Borbon last season, where he hit .312/.376/.414 with four homers, 20 RBI, 19 stolen bases and 30 runs scored over just 157 at-bats. There's usually an inherent danger attached with small sample sizes, but with Marlon Byrd in Chicago, it appears the Rangers will give him every chance in center field as the oft-injured Josh Hamilton moves to a less-demanding corner outfield position. This is an ADP I can get behind, as 40-50 stolen bases could be in the offing with regular playing time.

Chad Qualls (RP, Diamondbacks) Current ADP: 203 Two weeks ago: 221

So-called fantasy experts (your humble guide included) have talked up Qualls this spring and mock drafters are finally starting to listen. Still, he's currently being drafted 22nd among closers. What's with the low ranking? Well, Qualls underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn patella femoral ligament in his left knee last September. While it was a complicated surgery and Qualls reportedly still feels tenderness in the knee, he has already appeared in two games this spring, leaving little doubt that he'll be ready for the start of the season. Some will pass on his 3.63 ERA and 24 saves from last season, but look deeper and you'll see a pitcher who averaged just 1.21 BB/9 (best among relievers with at least 40 IP) and a 56.9 groundball rate. Some bad luck is possible with any wormkiller, but I have a feeling we won't be seeing "BS" next to his name very often this season. He's completely undervalued right now.

Adam LaRoche (1B, Diamondbacks) Current ADP: 183 Two weeks ago: 204

Fantasy owners are increasingly optimistic that LaRoche will thrive with a move to the desert. And it could very well be true. Chase Field has been one of the friendliest stadiums for left-handed hitters over the past three seasons, according to Bill James' Park Indices. Assuming this isn't your first rodeo, you'll know that LaRoche has traditionally been dismissed as a second-half player in fantasy and the numbers seem to jive with this assessment -- .773 career OPS during the first half, 909 career OPS during the second half. I've always believed that he has been unfairly stigmatized in this sense, because while the numbers don't lie, it distracts from the remarkable consistency of his production during that time. I'm convinced that with even a modest boost from Chase Field -- and a talented supporting cast -- he'll be a potential steal this late.

Fallers

Jake Peavy (SP, White Sox) Current ADP: 107 Two weeks ago: 87

You think fantasy owners are finally processing the fact that Peavy won't pitch in Petco Park this season? If you still have any doubts that a dramatic shift is about to take place, chew on this little factoid: Peavy posted a 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 90 home starts since Petco opened in 2004 -- legitimate ace numbers -- but he's been merely good away from San Diego (3.44 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) during that same time. You don't need me to tell you that U.S. Cellular Field won't be as forgiving, especially during the hot and sticky months of July and August. Here's a piece of advice as draft day approaches: talk up Peavy's last three starts of the season (3-0 with a 1.35 ERA, including two wins over the Tigers), downplay the switch to the American League and hope someone bites a round or two early. Then, enjoy his regression to the mean. Fact is, he's still being drafted way too soon.

Brian Roberts (2B, Orioles) Current ADP: 49 Two weeks ago: 42

It isn't much of a surprise to see Roberts fall in recent mocks, but his drop has been more significant than that of Jose Reyes, who is also sidelined indefinitely. And there's a pretty good reason for that. His ceiling is much lower than that of Reyes, especially as he enters his age-32 season. Roberts was diagnosed with a slight herniated disk in his lower back last month and was shutdown from baseball activities this week due to flu-like symptoms, which may or may not be related to a reaction from an anti-inflammatory medication. Roberts is already at the age where speed begins to fade (see: 30 stolen bases last season, down from 40 in 2008 and 50 in 2007), so the prospect of a lingering back condition won't help his case. Look for him to continue to fall in the days ahead.

Adam Dunn (1B/OF, Nationals) Current ADP: 67 Two weeks ago: 56

Now this, I don't understand at all. We can debate where Dunn belongs in these rankings, but fantasy owners would be hard-pressed to find a more consistent power producer. I've regularly drafted Dunn in the late-fifth round in 12-team mixed leagues and in the late-sixth or early-seventh round in 10-team leagues, and I'm not looking back. Only in the fantasy realm would Dunn be considered "versatile," but remember that Dunn has eligibility at both first base and the outfield. For this reason, he's a great safety pick in a traditional snake draft if you'd like to get a first baseman like Billy Butler in the next round, but aren't willing to "reach" to do it. Dunn probably won't hit .267 again, but it will hardly matter if he hits 40 bombs.

Ted Lilly (SP, Cubs) Current ADP: 181 Two weeks ago: 155

Lilly was already expected to miss the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery last November, but it doesn't help that he was slowed in the early part of camp due to a sore right knee and a viral infection. The veteran left-hander is already back throwing off a mound, and hopes to get in a game before the end of spring training, but the cumulative effect has taken its toll on his current ADP. Look for him to fall even further in the weeks to come, making him an enticing DL-stash for the early part of the season. Remember that Lilly is entering his walk-year, so he should be extra-motivated to prove himself durable once he returns.

Michael Bourn (OF, Astros) Current ADP: 102 Two weeks ago: 87

Is it just me, or is there a legitimate correlation between Bourn falling and the presence of Morgan, Borbon, Davis and Juan Pierre in the rounds that follow? Truth be told, the middle rounds will be a pretty nice place to uncover value with light-hitting speedsters on draft day. Bourn's 61 stolen bases and 97 runs scored from last season are nothing to sneeze at, of course, and neither is his .285/.354/.384 batting line, but is it really worth investing a ninth or tenth round selection for a guy who only hit three home runs and knocked in 35 runs when you can find comparable production much later? I don't think so.

 

[HacheMan]

2010 AL SP Overview
AL Starting Pitching Overview

For my complete projections and writeups of over 1,000 players, check out Rotoworld's online draft guide.

Underrated

Cliff Lee (Mariners) - I see seven elite fantasy starters in the AL, and while Lee doesn't top the list, he probably qualifies as the best investment of the group. A big reason is that he landed in such a great situation with the trade to Seattle. He won't get the same offensive support he would have in Philadelphia, but he'll be pitching in front of perhaps the game's best defense and he'll benefit from working in Safeco Park. I place him third behind Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke and ahead of CC Sabathia.

Brett Anderson (Athletics) - Well, maybe still a little underrated. But those hoping to pilfer Anderson at a modest price in his sophomore season have been largely disappointed. Anderson has caught the eyes of many even though his win total (11) and ERA (4.06) from his rookie campaign fail to stand out. What is drawing notice is his 150/45 K/BB ratio in 175 1/3 innings, plus his obvious improvement as the year went on. Also, like Lee, he'll have a great defense and a ballpark that will add to his value. An ERA in the mid-3.00s is likely, and I rank him ninth among AL SPs.

Rick Porcello (Tigers) - Porcello probably won't suddenly turn into a strikeout machine in year two as a big leaguer, but since his pitch-count limits will be relaxed a bit, he should have more freedom to go for swings and misses instead of grounders. With his stuff and the likelihood that he'll be allowed to throw 190-200 innings, rather than 170, there's no reason he can't add about 50 K's to his 2009 total of 89.

Kevin Slowey (Twins) - That he'll be pitching with two screws in his right wrist makes Slowey something of a risk. However, he seems to have regained his stuff following last year's surgery, making him a potential bargain. Slowey won't excel when it comes to ERA, but he could finish in the top 10 in the AL in WHIP and strike out 150-160 batters. That Target Field might play as more of a home run park than the Metrodome had of late could hurt him, but particularly in April and May, the cool temperatures should help keep flyballs in the yard.

Overrated

Javier Vazquez (Yankees) - Vazquez will give the Bronx another try after going 14-10 with a 4.91 ERA with the Yankees back in 2004. Outstanding season in Atlanta aside, I don't think he's much different of a pitcher now than he was then, and the new Yankee Stadium will punish him more than the old one did. Vazquez would have been a borderline top-10 mixed-league pitcher had the Braves kept him, but I place him 22nd now. He'll remain strong in WHIP and he should notch about 200 strikeouts, but I expect an ERA over 4.00.

Jake Peavy (White Sox) - I'd suggest staying away even if I felt better about his chances of pitching 190-200 innings. Peavy isn't going to be overmatched in the AL, but he's unlikely to be an elite pitcher. He had a 3.76 ERA away from Petco Park during his last three healthy seasons. Now he'll be facing AL lineups and making half of his starts in one of the game's top home run parks. Factor in the possibility of more arm problems and it becomes nearly impossible to recommend him. I rank him 35th among starters.

Rich Harden (Rangers) - The astronomical upside that's always made Harden worth gambling on in the past is probably gone now. He's ditched his splitter in an effort to stay healthy, and his velocity has dropped some. So far this spring, he's had trouble hitting 90 mph on the gun, though perhaps that'll just turn out to be an early-March issue. Also worth noting is that Harden has put himself in a very tough situation for pitchers by signing with Texas. There's just hardly any chance that he'll reel off a $20+ season, and those looking to gamble should be able to find cheaper alternatives, such as Ben Sheets or Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Scott Kazmir (Angels) - Kazmir showed definite improvement after the Angels picked him up from the Rays last season, both in results (1.73 ERA in six starts) and in the quality of his stuff. Still, his slider isn't the same weapon it was and he remains a big injury risk after throwing 152 1/3 and 147 1/3 innings the last two seasons. I regard him in the same way I do Harden; his upside isn't what it was and he'll cost more than some other risky starters. My guess is that he won't be a real asset in ERA or WHIP.

Sleepers

Francisco Liriano (Twins) - Liriano fit better into this category a couple of months ago, when it looked like he'd probably open the season in the bullpen. However, he was very impressive in his brief winter ball stint and he's remained sharp in his initial outings this spring. Now he seems like a lock for the rotation, unless the Twins decide they'd be better off having him replace Joe Nathan in the closer's role. Liriano still has pretty good velocity following Tommy John surgery, and now he seems to have regained the slider that made him the AL's nastiest pitcher for a brief spell. He's probably not going to rebound all of the way to being a Cy Young contender, but he should be well above average if he stays healthy.

Brian Matusz (Orioles) - Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft, entered the spring with a rotation spot to lose after going 4-0 in his final five starts last year. The Orioles didn't want him to have to lead the rotation this year, so they brought in Kevin Millwood to go along with Jeremy Guthrie. However, with his four-pitch arsenal that includes a very good changeup, Matusz is likely to be the team's bench pitcher right away. I see an ERA in the low-4.00s and nearly eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Phil Hughes (Yankees) - With Joba Chamberlain imploding in back-to-back starts, Hughes would seem to have the early lead in the competition to become the Yankees' fifth starter. He's probably the better choice anyway. Chamberlain may yet have the higher ceiling, but his stuff went backwards last year and he may well be more at ease in a setup role. I think Hughes is the safer choice and the better bet to stay healthy. His lack of an above average third pitch may make it difficult for him to post an ERA under 4.00 in the AL East, but I could see him winning 13-14 games and striking out 150-160 batters.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (Mariners) - Rowland-Smith is no Cliff Lee, but he'll work with the same advantages and resemble a fine No. 3 starter as a result, even if he's more of a No. 4 or No. 5 in truth. He's an especially nice sleeper in 4x4 leagues. He'd even be worthy of an end-game pick in mixed 4x4 drafts.

Colby Lewis (Rangers) - Lewis will slide right into the Texas rotation after amassing a stellar 369/46 K/BB ratio in 354 1/3 innings in his two seasons in Japan. The home run ball figures to be a problem for him, particularly since he'll be pitching in Arlington, so I don't expect him to contribute him in ERA. However, he's a candidate to win 13-15 games with a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range and 130-150 strikeouts. He'd be a nice choice as a fourth starter in AL-only leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

NL-Only Pitching Sleepers
After columns on my favorite sleepers among AL-only hitters, NL-only hitters, and AL-only pitchers it's time to make my NL-only pitching picks. It's important to note that NL-only and AL-only leagues are far different than mixed leagues and require dipping much deeper into the player pool, so the players who qualify as "sleepers" are much smaller names.

In fact, in order to qualify for my AL-only and NL-only sleeper lists a player can't be among the top 250 picks in mixed leagues according to the constantly updated Average Draft Position data found in our Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. In other words most of these guys are going completely undrafted in mixed leagues, but the following 10 pitchers are definitely worth targeting in NL-only leagues.

Homer Bailey (SP, Reds) - He may never live up to the once-massive expectations from a few years ago, but after posting a 6.72 ERA in his first two cracks at the majors Bailey showed signs of developing into an effective starter in 2009. He went 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 53 strikeouts in his final nine starts, rediscovering his lost velocity while adding a splitter to his repertoire, and despite seemingly being around forever is still just 24.

Octavio Dotel (RP, Pirates) - Based on average draft position Dotel is being valued like someone with a 50-50 chance to close for the Pirates, but with Joel Hanrahan as his big competition the odds are more like 80-20. Getting hurt and serving up homers have kept him from more closing opportunities and Dotel is 36 years old, but with a 3.55 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 129 innings over the past two seasons he can still blow hitters away.

Ian Kennedy (SP, Diamondbacks) - After a promising three-start debut for the Yankees in 2007 the former first-round pick struggled mightily in 2008 and missed most of last year after surgery for an aneurysm under his right arm. Kennedy looked good enough in the Arizona Fall League that the Diamondbacks acquired him as part of the three-team Curtis Granderson trade and if healthy he can be a solid mid-rotation starter at age 25.

Mat Latos (SP, Padres) - Latos blitzed through the minors with a 2.49 ERA and 216/46 K/BB ratio in 185 innings, reaching the majors five months before his 22nd birthday and then holding his own in 10 starts. His average fastball clocked in at 94.2 miles per hour to rank fifth among NL starters with 50-plus innings and as a fly-ball pitcher Petco Park is the perfect home to mask what otherwise could be a weakness for homers.

Ryan Madson (RP, Phillies) - Brad Lidge had one of the all-time worst seasons by a closer in 2009 and is expected to begin this year on the disabled list following offseason knee and elbow surgeries, potentially giving Madson a huge value boost. He has a 3.20 ERA in 425 career innings as a reliever, figures to be the Opening Day closer, and will be waiting in the wings all season if Lidge struggles once he's healthy enough to pitch.

James McDonald (SP, Dodgers) - McDonald struggled in his first four career starts and then thrived in 41 relief appearances, so Joe Torre is apparently leaning toward putting him in the bullpen again to begin 2010. However, the Dodgers' starter depth is weak enough that McDonald should get back into the rotation eventually after excelling in that role as a minor leaguer and at 25 years old he has the stuff to be a mid-rotation guy.

Jon Niese (SP, Mets) - Niese was grabbing hold of a rotation spot when a hamstring tear ended his season in early August, but he's healthy now and seems poised to stick in the majors at age 23. His low-90s fastball gets lots of grounders and Niese's curveball allows him to miss more bats than most sinkerballers. He has a 3.38 ERA and 226 strikeouts in 258 innings between Double-A and Triple-A despite being promoted aggressively.

Felipe Paulino (SP, Astros) - Paulino got knocked around as a rookie, going 3-11 with a 6.27 ERA, but also ranked second in the NL behind only Ubaldo Jimenez in average fastball velocity at 95.4 miles per hour and racked up 93 strikeouts in 97.2 innings. He has the raw stuff to dominate and a fairly neutral ground-ball rate suggests at the very least he won't be so homer-prone again in 2010.

Brad Penny (SP, Cardinals) - In what has become a familiar story for pitchers Penny got rocked in his first taste of the AL and then thrived back in the NL, going 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six starts for the Giants. His strikeout totals have never matched his velocity and a breakout is unlikely at age 32, but Penny has a 4.01 career ERA in the NL and Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan squeezes the most out of veterans like him.

Clayton Richard (SP, Padres) - Richard is a run-of-the-mill fourth or fifth starter, but with Petco Park on his side the 26-year-old southpaw has a chance to post surprisingly solid fantasy stats much like rotation-mate Kevin Correia in 2009. So far he has a 4.80 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 201 innings for the White Sox and Padres, and while Richard's control has been shaky he walked just 1.4 per nine innings at Double-A and Triple-A.

 

[HacheMan]

2010 NL SP Overview
NL Starting Pitching Overview

For my complete projections and writeups of over 1,000 players, check out Rotoworld's online draft guide.

Underrated

Clayton Kershaw & Chad Billingsley (Dodgers) - I knew I'd have Billingsley higher than most this year. What I didn't expect was to see Kershaw lasting into the middle rounds of mixed drafts. In ESPN mixed league drafts, Kershaw is just the 26th pitcher off the board, while Billingsley is 29th. I have the two back-to-back at Nos. 16 and 17. There's definitely some injury risk with Kershaw, but he's a threat to finish in the top five in the NL in both ERA and strikeouts. Billingsley is safer, yet he has the potential to do the same thing.

Ryan Dempster (Cubs) - I like Dempster more now than I did a year ago, when he was viewed as a top-25 pitcher by most. His numbers tumbled after his dominant 2008, but he proved that he belonged in the upper tier of starters by posting a 3.65 ERA and a 172/65 K/BB ratio in 200 innings. I expect similar numbers, hopefully with a few more wins than last year's 11.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) - Zambrano hasn't been a top fantasy starter since 2006, but he's also never been a bust and his stuff hasn't fallen off that far. Last year, he struck out 152 and gave up just 10 homers in his 169 1/3 innings. While he's probably never going to win that Cy Young Award now, he has some more nice seasons in his future. There's no way he should be lasting 200 picks into mixed-league drafts. There's still plenty of upside here, and he's simply never been a liability for more than one or two months at a time.

Johnny Cueto (Reds) - Cueto has to show he can do it for six months, but he was 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through July 1 last season. I think he makes a great late-round target in mixed leagues. It's entirely possible that he'll wear down again, especially with Dusty Baker at the helm, but that just means he'd have to be replaced come July or August. When he's at his best, he's an All-Star.

Overrated

Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks) - Money talks. Anyone expecting a smooth comeback from shoulder surgery for Webb this year should have remembered just how much the Diamondbacks hesitated before picking up an $8.5 million option that would have been a huge bargain under normal circumstances. It looks like Webb is faring better now than he was a few weeks ago, but it's unlikely that he'll resemble a Cy Young candidate at any point during 2010.

Yovani Gallardo (Brewers) - I'm not saying stay away from Gallardo; I'm just not sure he's a top-20 pitcher with the way his command regressed last year. If he's so inefficient with his pitches again, he may well wind up getting hurt with the Brewers hoping to have him pitch deep into games as their ace. It might not work out that way; Gallardo has the ability to be one of the NL's five-best pitchers. I'm just not as high on him as most right now.

Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies) - De La Rosa has always had the talent, but those who thought he turned the corner in the second half of 2008 were left disappointed when he opened last season 2-7 with a 5.81 ERA. Of course, he went 14-2 from there and was often dominant, yet he still continued to walk plenty of batters and he never stopped allowing homers. I'm skeptical that he'll ever truly put it together and become the quality mixed-league starter some expect him to be this year.

Bud Norris (Astros) - Norris is a two-pitch pitcher with mediocre command and a tendency to give up flyballs. Now both of his weapons are pretty good, and I think he has a promising future for the Astros. It's just that it's likely to come as a reliever.

Sleepers

Brad Penny (Cardinals) - It's doubtful that Penny will give a fantasy team six quality months -- that's never been his style -- but he could be well above average for two-thirds of the season. Getting hooked up with Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan could be the best thing to happen to him in a long time.

Sean Gallagher (Padres) - Gallagher remains something of a long shot to open the season in San Diego's rotation -- he's competing with Tim Stauffer and Mat Latos for one spot -- but he will make the team, since he's out of options, and it'll only be a matter of time before he gets a chance to start. I rate him below Clayton Richard, but ahead of Kevin Correia, Jon Garland and Chris Young as a fantasy property. Latos could top them all, but it's possible that he'll spend a couple of months in Triple-A first.

Jon Niese (Mets) - Niese is another fighting for a rotation spot, and he hasn't set himself apart this spring. Still, I thought it was really coming together for him before his hamstring injury last year. He was coming off an exceptional six-week run in Triple-A, and he had a 3.00 ERA in his 15 major league innings before going down. He could sport an ERA in the low-4.00s and record nearly seven strikeouts per nine innings if he gets his chance.

Wild Cards

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) - It was a given anyway, but now we know that Strasburg will open the season in Double-A. Odds are that he'll remain in the minors until the end of May -- denying him super-two arbitration eligibility after 2012 -- and then come up and pitch about 100 innings for the Nationals. He should have considerable value in mixed leagues once he arrives. Still, given that he won't make more than 16-18 starts, he's not worth taking in the middle rounds of drafts.

Aroldis Chapman (Reds) - Chapman, on the other hand, appears to have a pretty good chance of opening the season in Cincinnati's rotation. He's shown few signs of rust despite a long layoff, and his command has been quite a bit better than anticipated, though we're still talking about just seven innings. My thought was that he'd only be of use as a reliever if he'd help at all this year. I've changed my tune now, but I still expect plenty of inconsistency and I wouldn't wager more than an end-game pick in a mixed league.

 

[HacheMan]

2010 NL SP Overview
NL Starting Pitching Overview


Underrated

Clayton Kershaw & Chad Billingsley (Dodgers) - I knew I'd have Billingsley higher than most this year. What I didn't expect was to see Kershaw lasting into the middle rounds of mixed drafts. In ESPN mixed league drafts, Kershaw is just the 26th pitcher off the board, while Billingsley is 29th. I have the two back-to-back at Nos. 16 and 17. There's definitely some injury risk with Kershaw, but he's a threat to finish in the top five in the NL in both ERA and strikeouts. Billingsley is safer, yet he has the potential to do the same thing.

Ryan Dempster (Cubs) - I like Dempster more now than I did a year ago, when he was viewed as a top-25 pitcher by most. His numbers tumbled after his dominant 2008, but he proved that he belonged in the upper tier of starters by posting a 3.65 ERA and a 172/65 K/BB ratio in 200 innings. I expect similar numbers, hopefully with a few more wins than last year's 11.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) - Zambrano hasn't been a top fantasy starter since 2006, but he's also never been a bust and his stuff hasn't fallen off that far. Last year, he struck out 152 and gave up just 10 homers in his 169 1/3 innings. While he's probably never going to win that Cy Young Award now, he has some more nice seasons in his future. There's no way he should be lasting 200 picks into mixed-league drafts. There's still plenty of upside here, and he's simply never been a liability for more than one or two months at a time.

Johnny Cueto (Reds) - Cueto has to show he can do it for six months, but he was 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through July 1 last season. I think he makes a great late-round target in mixed leagues. It's entirely possible that he'll wear down again, especially with Dusty Baker at the helm, but that just means he'd have to be replaced come July or August. When he's at his best, he's an All-Star.

Overrated

Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks) - Money talks. Anyone expecting a smooth comeback from shoulder surgery for Webb this year should have remembered just how much the Diamondbacks hesitated before picking up an $8.5 million option that would have been a huge bargain under normal circumstances. It looks like Webb is faring better now than he was a few weeks ago, but it's unlikely that he'll resemble a Cy Young candidate at any point during 2010.

Yovani Gallardo (Brewers) - I'm not saying stay away from Gallardo; I'm just not sure he's a top-20 pitcher with the way his command regressed last year. If he's so inefficient with his pitches again, he may well wind up getting hurt with the Brewers hoping to have him pitch deep into games as their ace. It might not work out that way; Gallardo has the ability to be one of the NL's five-best pitchers. I'm just not as high on him as most right now.

Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies) - De La Rosa has always had the talent, but those who thought he turned the corner in the second half of 2008 were left disappointed when he opened last season 2-7 with a 5.81 ERA. Of course, he went 14-2 from there and was often dominant, yet he still continued to walk plenty of batters and he never stopped allowing homers. I'm skeptical that he'll ever truly put it together and become the quality mixed-league starter some expect him to be this year.

Bud Norris (Astros) - Norris is a two-pitch pitcher with mediocre command and a tendency to give up flyballs. Now both of his weapons are pretty good, and I think he has a promising future for the Astros. It's just that it's likely to come as a reliever.

Sleepers

Brad Penny (Cardinals) - It's doubtful that Penny will give a fantasy team six quality months -- that's never been his style -- but he could be well above average for two-thirds of the season. Getting hooked up with Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan could be the best thing to happen to him in a long time.

Sean Gallagher (Padres) - Gallagher remains something of a long shot to open the season in San Diego's rotation -- he's competing with Tim Stauffer and Mat Latos for one spot -- but he will make the team, since he's out of options, and it'll only be a matter of time before he gets a chance to start. I rate him below Clayton Richard, but ahead of Kevin Correia, Jon Garland and Chris Young as a fantasy property. Latos could top them all, but it's possible that he'll spend a couple of months in Triple-A first.

Jon Niese (Mets) - Niese is another fighting for a rotation spot, and he hasn't set himself apart this spring. Still, I thought it was really coming together for him before his hamstring injury last year. He was coming off an exceptional six-week run in Triple-A, and he had a 3.00 ERA in his 15 major league innings before going down. He could sport an ERA in the low-4.00s and record nearly seven strikeouts per nine innings if he gets his chance.

Wild Cards

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) - It was a given anyway, but now we know that Strasburg will open the season in Double-A. Odds are that he'll remain in the minors until the end of May -- denying him super-two arbitration eligibility after 2012 -- and then come up and pitch about 100 innings for the Nationals. He should have considerable value in mixed leagues once he arrives. Still, given that he won't make more than 16-18 starts, he's not worth taking in the middle rounds of drafts.

Aroldis Chapman (Reds) - Chapman, on the other hand, appears to have a pretty good chance of opening the season in Cincinnati's rotation. He's shown few signs of rust despite a long layoff, and his command has been quite a bit better than anticipated, though we're still talking about just seven innings. My thought was that he'd only be of use as a reliever if he'd help at all this year. I've changed my tune now, but I still expect plenty of inconsistency and I wouldn't wager more than an end-game pick in a mixed league.

 

[HacheMan]

Rotations and Closers, Oh My
The Red Sox and Yankees face off on Opening Night in less than two weeks and fantasy drafts are firing on all cylinders around the country. Let's take a trip through Arizona and Florida for the biggest headlines of the last few days...


Hughes to capture final spot in Yanks' rotation?

If you ask most New York-based beat writers and reporters, they'll tell you that Phil Hughes is the front-runner for the Yankees' final rotation spot over Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin, Alfredo Aceves and Sergio Mitre. The 23-year-old Hughes has posted a relatively unimpressive 4.15 ERA in 13 innings this spring, but he has also registered a 10/2 K/BB ratio. Managers often look for sharp control and strong mechanics in spring training rather than results, and Hughes is handling his business in that regard. If it all pans out and the right-hander is indeed named the Yankees' fifth starter, Chamberlain, Aceves and Mitre will all head to the bullpen. Gaudin, on the other hand, has been placed on waivers and will either be claimed, released, or placed in the minors.

The winner of the Yanks' ongoing fifth starter competition has the most to gain fantasy-wise for obvious reasons. And if it's Hughes, we must recommend grabbing him. The California native fanned 96 batters in 86 major league innings last season and has also racked up strikeouts with ease as a starter in the depths of the Yankees' minor league system. He throws a fastball that averaged 93.7 MPH in 2009 and a cutter, curve and changeup that all serve as excellent out pitches. He's already gaining ground in our Rotoworld Draft Guide.

Updating the Rockies' ninth-inning conundrum

Colorado was dealt a stiff blow when Huston Street was hit with shoulder tightness last week and it's not exactly clear who will fill in while the 26-year-old spends the early part of the season on the disabled list. Rafael Betancourt has a shoulder injury of his own and the Rockies probably don't want to push him into high-stress situations. Manny Corpas has closing experience, but he's allowed 11 hits and six earned runs in 8 1/3 innings this spring and was removed from the ninth inning gig for a reason back in 2007.

That leaves us with Franklin Morales, a 25-year-old left-hander with just over 100 major league innings under his belt. In all likelihood he will be handed the Rockies' closer gig on Opening Day. He's struggled this spring and finished with an unimpressive 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 40 innings last season, but the Rockies like his high-velocity fastball and sharp curve. It's proving time for Morales and a few of us can benefit from his cheap early-season saves.

Mets' Reyes (thyroid) making serious progress

It's surprising these days when we hear good news out of Mets camp, but Tuesday's update on shortstop Jose Reyes was certainly that. According to the Associated Press, Reyes has been cleared to return to Mets camp and may begin baseball-related activities within the next few days. His thyroid levels, once disturbingly high, are now back to normal.

Reyes is the spark-plug of the Mets' offense and it was a near-crushing blow when he was sent back to New York a few weeks ago to have his thyroid examined. Mets fans assumed the worst, as did most in the media, but all appears to be headed in the right direction. Reyes will need about 10 games to get his timing right and might not be able to fit in enough playing time before Opening Day, but it's now doubtful that he opens the season on the disabled list. And that's enough to make the whole borough of Queens smile collectively. The 26-year-old shortstop hit .297/.358/.475 in 2008, his last fully healthy season, with 16 homers, 113 runs scored and 56 stolen bases in 159 games. We all know the kind of fantasy beast he can be when healthy.

Pujols dealing with a balky back

The Cardinals, headed by oft-sunglassed manager Tony La Russa, aren't big on revealing information when it comes to injury matters and they've treated Albert Pujols' recent back injury with the same kind of secrecy. The slugger was scratched from a spring game on March 8 with what was then called "lower back pain" and has missed random intervals of time since. He even underwent an MRI on Monday and was given a shot, presumably of the pain-killing variety.

It's hard to guess how serious and problematic the back injury will prove to be this season. Pujols always plays through pain and has never missed more than 20 games in a given year, but pain-killing shots and random days off only mask the problem. The good news is he's in the Cardinals' spring lineup on Wednesday afternoon and is apparently feeling pretty strong. But perhaps it's time to start thinking about Hanley Ramirez at No. 1 overall in fantasy drafts. If Pujols' back injury is serious we probably won't find out until mid-season, and that could mean disaster for anyone who trusts him at the top of a fantasy draft board. Keep an eye out on our fluctuating rankings in the Rotoworld Draft Guide.

Pedroia sprains wrist in spring game

X-rays scheduled for Wednesday morning will give us the real story, but it appears there may be bad news out of Red Sox camp. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia, fresh off another solid fantasy season, sprained his left wrist during a Grapefruit League game against the Twins on Tuesday while trying to reach for a Denard Span line drive in the bottom of the first inning. Red Sox manager Terry Francona acknowledged to the Boston Herald that there is some "swelling" on the top of the wrist in a post-game chat with reporters, but wouldn't reveal any other details.

With Opening Day less than two weeks from now, the timing couldn't be worse for a freak injury. There's a chance luck will be on Pedroia's side and the diagnosis of a "mild sprain" will hold up, but it's always good to plan ahead just in case. Should the 26-year-old spend the first few weeks of the season on the disabled list, the Red Sox might be stuck with Jed Lowrie or Bill Hall at second base. Lowrie, 25, is a .238/.313/.372 career hitter in 328 major league at-bats and Hall, 30, hit .201/.258/.338 last season for the Mariners and Brewers. Both should be avoided in fantasy realms, but desperate times call for desperate measures. This whole picture should come a little clearer on Wednesday afternoon, when Pedroia's X-ray results are revealed.

UPDATE: The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham passes along word that Pedroia's X-rays were negative. He's expected to take batting practice Thursday and could return to the Red Sox' lineup by the weekend. Great news

 

[HacheMan]

Risers and Fallers Revisited
Just two weeks ago, I identified ten players who had made significant moves in mock drafts -- five risers and five fallers -- based on recent ADP (Average Draft Position) trends. For this week, I'll revisit those names as well as give you a new six-pack of notable risers and fallers to wash down.

You're already here, reading us right now, so you might as well purchase Rotoworld Draft Guide. Once you do, you'll be armed with our constantly updated ADP, as well as cheat sheets and player projections, fully-customizable and printable, for your convenience. If that isn't enough, we promise to pressure one of your leaguemates into drafting Yuniesky Betancourt in the second round. What, Dayton Moore isn't in your league? Bummer.

[Note: ADP data courtesy of MockDraftCentral.com]

Risers Revisited

Jason Heyward (OF, Braves) Current ADP: 227 Two weeks ago: 234

The hype hasn't died down, as it's all but official that he's going north, but this 20-year-old has remained fairly stable in recent mocks. So, what gives? Perhaps this is indicative of how hard it is to value an unknown quantity. After all, these numbers function as a mere complimentary guide in your own personal projection. Just be prepared for the very real possibility that a fellow owner will select Heyward over the likes of Travis Snider, (Current ADP: 218) and Carlos Gomez (Current ADP: 214). And really, it's hard to blame them if they do.

Ben Sheets (SP, Athletics) Current ADP: 233 Two weeks ago: 216

Sheets shot up the board nearly two weeks ago, but a pair of bad outings -- and that's being kind -- have dropped him to nearly the same spot he occupied just one month ago. Ugly spring training boxscores are only part of the story with Sheets anyway, as the Athletics are more are focused on whether he is actually healthy and getting good movement on his curveball -- something he actually did during his start against the Cubs last Saturday. Legitimate questions remain, but he's still a nice value in his current spot, nestled between Mark Buehrle and another oft-injured pitcher Erik Bedard.

Julio Borbon (OF, Rangers) Current ADP: 150 Two weeks ago: 153

Borbon has held his ground over the past two weeks as fantasy owners extrapolate how many bases the 24-year-old can swipe with a full-season of at-bats as the Rangers' leadoff man. If you've already bypassed Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn in the early rounds, Borbon makes for a fine target, but remember that speedsters Nyjer Morgan, Elvis Andrus, Rajai Davis and Juan Pierre figure to still be there after the first 120 selections are made. In other words, don't fret if he falls off the board earlier than anticipated.

Chad Qualls (RP, Diamondbacks) Current ADP: 200 Two weeks ago: 205

Qualls has climbed incrementally over the past month, but he's still being drafted 22nd among closers, just ahead of shaky late-inning options like Fernando Rodney, Brad Lidge and Matt Capps. Seriously. Toss out his 11.81 ERA this spring (he gave up six runs in one outing last Friday) and realize that he has already made six appearances this spring, quelling most concerns about his surgically-repaired knee. This remains a great opportunity for fantasy owners to capitalize on a severely undervalued commodity.

Adam LaRoche (1B, Diamondbacks) Current ADP: 182 Two weeks ago: 184

Here's another one who has remained pretty steady as fantasy owners begin to build a consensus on pre-season valuation of players. I believe he has a very good chance to match or exceed the totals from his career-year of 2006, when he launched 32 homers and drove in 90 runs for the Braves. Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch recently hinted that LaRoche will likely bat fourth, sandwiched between Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds. Besides the awesome view of Clemente Bridge, I don't think he's going to miss Pittsburgh very much.

Fallers Revisited

Jake Peavy (SP, White Sox) Current ADP: 108 Two weeks ago: 107

After waving goodbye to the top 100 two weeks ago, Peavy has remained outside of the first 20 starting pitchers selected in recent mock drafts. And in my opinion, he's still being drafted way too high. Perhaps I'm in the minority here, but I would much rather bank on the upside of Chad Billingsley, Wandy Rodriguez or Brett Anderson -- all available in later rounds -- than someone about to pitch his first full season in the American League.

Brian Roberts (2B, Orioles) Current ADP: 50 Two weeks ago: 49

Whatever number you see here, Roberts' position on draft day will be intrinsically linked to the latest headlines about the health of his back. Roberts, who received an epidural injection for a herniated disk on March 15, is currently prepping to make his Grapefruit League debut this weekend. Barring any setbacks, five or six games should be enough to get him ready for Opening Day. That's all well and good, but the big question fantasy owners must ask themselves is whether a 32-year-old second baseman with a back problem is really worth a top 50 pick, especially with his stolen base totals on the decline.

Adam Dunn (1B/OF, Nationals) Current ADP: 72 Two weeks ago: 67

Dunn has been one of the biggest fallers inside the top 100 players over the past month. Yep. Even more than Lance Berkman, who is expected to miss the start of the season after knee surgery. Why? Well, for all of the prodigious blasts that Dunn will provide throughout the season, he has a lifetime batting average of .249. If you can absorb the potential batting average hit, I'm still a big proponent of him, but it's not a huge shock to see him drafted in a similar position as Carlos Pena (Current ADP: 76). On the other hand, if you're in a league that counts OPS, I'd bump him up about 10-15 spots.

Ted Lilly (SP, Cubs) Current ADP: 181 Two weeks ago: 181

Lilly hasn't budged in recent mocks despite his outlook improving over the past two weeks. The veteran left-hander, who is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, will not make a Cactus League start this spring, however he will start two minor league games. Don't worry, he hasn't suffered a setback. This is all in an effort to keep the other pitchers on schedule in preparation for the new season. Lilly still remains on track for a return in mid-April, making him a fantastic and likely temporary DL-stash.

Michael Bourn (OF, Astros) Current ADP: 104 Two weeks ago: 102

Bourn hasn't played since last Friday due to a strained right oblique, but that's not why he continues to fall on draft boards. As mentioned earlier, there's an abundance of potential speed demons available in the middle and late rounds this season. In the new Rotoworld Draft Guide, we project Bourn to lead the majors with 58 stolen bases, and while that is mighty enticing, remember he'll also be a real drag in the power department.

Recent Risers

Aroldis Chapman (SP, Reds) Current ADP: 248 Two weeks ago: 271

Chapman has actually made the biggest jump inside the top 250 of any player over the past two weeks. Of course, most of this progress was made before he left Monday's game against the Rockies due to muscle spasms in his lower back. Manager Dusty Baker is adamant that Chapman has not been eliminated from the competition to be the fifth starter, but the team isn't sure when he'll be able to pitch again. Even with this uncertainty, the Cuban left-hander obviously possesses more fantasy upside than either Matt Maloney or Justin Lehr. He's still worth a late-round flier in mixed leagues.

Francisco Rodriguez (RP, Mets) Current ADP: 86 Two weeks ago: 82

While top-notch closers like Joe Nathan and Huston Street have fallen by the wayside, every closer inside the top 100 has jumped on the draft board over the past two weeks. K-Rod's move is the most pronounced. The Mets' closer was sidelined for the early part of camp due to a nasty case of pink eye, but he has quickly returned to make four appearances. Don't expect his elite strikeout rates of the past, but with even a halfway-decent team behind him, Rodriguez should be able to notch 40 saves again.

Manny Ramirez (OF, Dodgers) Current ADP: 61 Two weeks ago: 65

Yes, Ramirez is climbing in recent mocks, however he's still lower on draft boards than he has been in years. There are a few factors at play here. For one, he turns 38 years old in May. And two, fantasy owners are likely looking at the .269/.389/.492 batting line he posted after returning from a PED suspension last July. ZiPS, a trusted projections service, has Ramirez at .290/.405/.538 with 27 homers and 102 RBI, suggesting that another season of near-vintage Manny is still possible. I'm less bullish on him. In fact, I'd rather take the 30-homer, 20-stolen base potential of Nelson Cruz just a few spots later. My, how times have changed.

Recent Fallers

Nolan Reimold (OF, Orioles) Current ADP: 207 Two weeks ago: 195

I featured Reimold among a group of overvalued sleepers a few weeks ago. I did so on the assumption that the young outfielder was working with "no restrictions." Turns out, his surgically-repaired left Achilles tendon wasn't 100 percent to open camp. In fact, Reimold just played back-to-back games for the first time this spring on Tuesday and Wednesday. I still believe he's worthy of a late-round selection, but it will be interesting to see if manager Dave Trembley provides Felix Pie and Luke Scott with some more playing time in left field if Reimold needs a breather early on. Just something to think about if you still believe in him as a sleeper.

Huston Street (RP, Rockies) Current ADP: 153 Two weeks ago: 144

No surprise to see a drop here. An MRI on Street's right shoulder came back clean, but he's still expected to miss at least the first two weeks of the regular season and possibly more. It's a tricky diagnosis for fantasy owners, and one that may require you to grab Franklin Morales before a fellow owner has the chance to stick it to you. Remember, while Morales posted a shaky 10/8 K/BB ratio, he notched seven saves in eight attempts last September while Street was sidelined due to biceps tendinitis.

Brandon Webb (SP, Diamondbacks) Current ADP: 150 Two weeks ago: 140

Webb, who is currently working his way back from shoulder surgery last August, remains a bit of an enigma. Last we heard, he was hoping to return by the end of April, however there's currently no firm plan on when he'll resume throwing off a mound. And as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic pointed out earlier this week, once Webb returns to the mound, he will likely need 3-4 weeks to build the proper arm strength for a return to the major leagues. It's a pretty optimistic timeline when you consider how slow his progress has been to this point. My advice: Let him be somebody else's headache.

 

[HacheMan]

The Stay-Away List
I've spent the past four columns going over my favorite sleepers among AL-only hitters, NL-only hitters, AL-only pitchers, and NL-only pitchers, so let's switch gears now and look at players to stay away from if you have a draft this weekend.

Some of these players are simply being overrated based on the Average Draft Position (ADP) data found in our Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, some are due to regress following career-years, and some just aren't very good, but in all cases I'd advise letting someone else take the plunge with them for 2010.

David Aardsma (RP, Mariners) - Finally figuring out a way to harness his dominant raw stuff at age 27 led to 38 saves with a 2.52 ERA and .190 opponents' batting average, but a repeat seems unlikely. Aardsma had a 5.29 ERA with 90 walks in 145 innings prior to 2009 and the presence of potential closer Brandon League could give him a shorter leash if Seattle's great outfield defense can't track down as many fly balls behind him.

Garrett Atkins (1B/3B, Orioles) - Until last year's complete collapse Coors Field helped mask Atkins' decline, making it possible for him to maintain solid raw stats despite awful production in normal altitude. He batted a combined .233 with a measly .696 OPS on the road during the past three years, and in addition to no longer having Coors Field on his side Atkins is switching to the tougher league and a difficult AL East schedule.

Jason Bartlett (SS, Rays) - Bartlett is being drafted as a top-100 player after hitting .320 with an .879 OPS and 14 homers in 137 games last season, which is going to make for a lot of disappointed owners when the 30-year-old reverts back to the guy who hit .276 with a .699 OPS and grand total of 11 homers in 449 games coming into 2009. His speed still has plenty of value, but you can find that in a shortstop five rounds later.

Rajai Davis (OF, Athletics) - Davis hit .305 and swiped 41 bases in 2009 despite not drawing regular starts until June, so projecting those numbers out to a full season have him getting drafted as a top-40 outfielder and top-150 player overall. The problem with that is two-fold, because Davis' track record suggests he's more likely to hit .275 than .305 and the A's have too many young outfield options to give him 150 starts.

Scott Feldman (SP, Rangers) - This year's best example of why focusing on win totals can be a recipe for disaster. Feldman went 17-8 last season, but that had more to do with good fortune and good run support than good pitching. He came into 2009 with a 4.97 career ERA, even last year's mark of 4.09 certainly didn't match his record, and his 113/65 K/BB ratio with a neutral ground-ball rate makes regression almost certain.

Brian Fuentes (RP, Angels) - Fuentes led baseball with 48 saves last season, but that was largely due to opportunity as he blew seven saves, posted a career-low strikeout rate, and had more walks than strikeouts in the second half while turning 34 years old. Fernando Rodney will lurk in the background all season, especially since the Angels can avoid bringing Fuentes back for $9 million in 2011 if he finishes fewer than 55 games.

J.A. Happ (SP, Phillies) - Happ was great in whichever role the Phillies had him fill as a rookie, going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 23 starts and a dozen relief outings. However, his 119/56 K/BB ratio in 166 innings was mediocre, his fly-ball rate makes him likely to serve up more homers in 2010, and both his league-leading rate of stranding runners on base and fourth-ranked batting average on balls in play were unsustainably excellent.

Garrett Jones (1B/OF, Pirates) - Jones had a great half-season as a rookie, but there was a reason why he didn't get an extended chance in the big leagues until age 28 and nothing in his extensive minor-league track record suggests a repeat is likely. Jones has always had 25-homer pop, but hit just .265 with a mediocre .784 OPS and terrible K/BB ratios in over 2,400 plate appearances at Triple-A.

Jason Marquis (SP, Nationals) - Marquis' remarkable streak of being on a playoff team in each of his first 10 seasons will come to an end after signing with the Nationals. He had a .541 winning percentage with an average of 13.3 wins per year from 2004-2009 despite a sub par 4.49 ERA during that time, but cheap victories won't be so easy to come by in Washington while his minuscule strikeout rate and awful WHIP will remain.

Casey McGehee (3B, Brewers) - Mat Gamel's injury makes it unlikely that McGehee will lose his starting job any time soon, but he's just as unlikely to have another season like his out-of-nowhere rookie campaign. McGehee hit .301 with 16 homers and an .859 OPS in 394 plate appearances for the Brewers, but keep in mind that he's already 27 years old and hit just .282 with a .745 OPS in 1,153 plate appearances at Triple-A.

 

[HacheMan]

Late March Mockin'
It's officially fantasy baseball draft season. This weekend, and over the next several days, more drafts will take place than have all spring. With that in mind, I hopped over to the excellent MockDraftCentral.com on Thursday evening and took part in a randomly assigned public mock. It was a 12-team, 5X5 format draft with a bunch of strangers. A few of the guys wanted their team names posted in this column, and I figured I owed them at least that much for my hardly clever quips in the site's small chat box...

Team 1: VottoZitoBako
Team 2: Rowayton Yankees
Team 3: That's Me!
Team 4: Ramrod
Team 5: hrrrrr
Team 6: drunk & ugly
Team 7: Hurmanos
Team 8: MeatHooks
Team 9: M.I.A.
Team 10: Flaming Goat Cheese
Team 11: The Icon
Team 12: running w/ scissors

Below are the results of rounds 1-9. The rest of the mock draft is now available HERE. My picks are in bold, blue lettering.

Questions, comments, anything? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter. As always, thanks for reading.

[SIZE=+1]Round One[/SIZE]

1. 1. Chase Utley
1. 2. Hanley Ramirez
1. 3. Albert Pujols
1. 4. Alex Rodriguez
1. 5. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4048"]Ryan Braun[/URL]
1. 6. Mark Teixeira
1. 7. Prince Fielder
1. 8. Matt Kemp
1. 9. Miguel Cabrera
1. 10. Ryan Howard
1. 11. Tim Lincecum
1. 12. Evan Longoria

Best Value: Albert Pujols isn't going to fall to No. 3 overall in most drafts and I was shocked when he was available for the taking. Locking up a guy who dominates four categories -- HRs, Rs, RBI and AVG -- is major, and it's why Albert tends to be selected at the very top of draft boards every year.

Questionable Selection: Chase Utley is a nice fantasy ballplayer because he posts consistently excellent numbers and provides power at a position where such a thing is scarce. Still, you can't justify selecting him first overall, and we must advise against taking him that high. Utley fits the bill at No. 4 or No. 5.

Already lost? Check out our award-winning Rotoworld Draft Guide for all sorts of cheat sheets, rankings and analysis. You won't be sorry.

[SIZE=+1]Round Two[/SIZE]

2. 1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. 2. Matt Holliday
2. 3. David Wright
2. 4. Joe Mauer
2. 5. Carl Crawford
2. 6. Roy Halladay
2. 7. Ian Kinsler
2. 8. Adrian Gonzalez
2. 9. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 10. Jimmy Rollins
2. 11. Mark Reynolds
2. 12. Joey Votto

Best Value: It's always nice to snag a first-round talent in the second, and that's exactly what we have here in Troy Tulowitzki. The 25-year-old shortstop had a 1043 OPS after the All-Star break last season and colleted 32 total home runs on the year. We're thinking he will ride that momentum into a monstrous 2010.

Questionable Selection: We've seen it time and time again in mock drafts this spring, and yet I still can't comprehend why Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is being selected in the second round. Sure, he stole 70 bases last season and might even top that impressive total this year, but he also smacked just eight homers and scored fewer than 100 runs. Draft players that do a lot of things well. Don't reach for one category.

[SIZE=+1]Round Three[/SIZE]

3. 1. Jose Reyes
3. 2. Justin Upton
3. 3. Grady Sizemore
3. 4. Victor Martinez
3. 5. Kevin Youkilis
3. 6. Jason Bay
3. 7. Brandon Phillips
3. 8. Pablo Sandoval
3. 9. Zack Greinke
3. 10. CC Sabathia
3. 11. Ryan Zimmerman
3. 12. Felix Hernandez

Best Value: It wasn't too long ago that Grady Sizemore was a consensus first-round pick in the world of fantasy baseball. In fact, it was just last year. He's enjoyed a healthy spring and is more than capable of replicating (or topping) the stat line that he posted in his last full season, 2008. The 27-year-old collected 33 home runs, 90 RBI, 101 runs scored and 38 stolen bases just one year ago.

Questionable Selection: How quickly things change. A couple of weeks ago I participated in a recreational mock draft and Mets shortstop Jose Reyes went undrafted until the eighth round. Of course, that was back when his thyroid was acting up and the Mets' medical staff couldn't put a timetable on his return. Now that he's back in camp, it appears some fantasy owners are confident that he can turn in a full season. We're not so sure.

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[SIZE=+1]Round Four[/SIZE]

4. 1. Jayson Werth
4. 2. Derek Jeter
4. 3. Ichiro Suzuki
4. 4. Dustin Pedroia
4. 5. Dan Haren
4. 6. Brian McCann
4. 7. Justin Morneau
4. 8. Justin Verlander
4. 9. Brian Roberts
4. 10. Curtis Granderson
4. 11. Robinson Cano
4. 12. Kendry Morales

Best Value: Curtis Granderson will not only look fresh in pinstripes this season, but I also think he might have one of his most productive years at the plate. And that's why I found it perfectly justifiable to select him late in the fourth round. He's surrounded by an immensely talented lineup and will play 81 games in the most homer-friendly ballpark in the majors.

Questionable Selection: His ADP (average draft position) suggests it was a fine pick, but I still find it hard to understand why Dustin Pedroia is thought of so highly in fantasy realms. He's a stud on the field, there's no doubting that, but for fantasy purposes he hit just 15 home runs and batted .296 last season. There are scores of scrappy outfielders that can hit double-digit homers and steal 20 bases. Pedroia is nothing special.

[SIZE=+1]Round Five[/SIZE]

5. 1. Adam Wainwright
5. 2. Jon Lester
5. 3. Johan Santana
5. 4. Cliff Lee
5. 5. Aaron Hill
5. 6. Nick Markakis
5. 7. Andre Ethier
5. 8. Ben Zobrist
5. 9. Adam Lind
5. 10. Josh Hamilton
5. 11. Lance Berkman
5. 12. Javier Vazquez

Best Value: Jon Lester sort of gets lost in the fold because most people still consider Josh Beckett the ace of Boston's staff. Well, most people are wrong. Lester, 26, racked up 225 strikeouts last season in 203 1/3 innings and turned in a 1.23 WHIP on top of 15 wins. He's a superb fantasy pitcher. One of the best, really.

Questionable Pick: Select Lance Berkman at your own risk this season. The 34-year-old from Waco, Texas has already undergone a knee procedure and it's not even April. On top of that, he hit just 25 home runs and tallied only 80 RBI last season. First base is as deep as it has ever been and there are more reliable options out there.

[SIZE=+1]Round Six[/SIZE]

6. 1. B.J. Upton
6. 2. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1390"]Nelson Cruz[/URL]
6. 3. Manny Ramirez
6. 4. Aramis Ramirez
6. 5. Josh Johnson
6. 6. Tommy Hanson
6. 7. Shane Victorino
6. 8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2371"]Chris Carpenter[/URL]
6. 9. Shin-Soo Choo
6. 10. Dan Uggla
6. 11. Adam Dunn
6. 12. Chone Figgins

Best Value: We ran a series of mock draft columns a couple of weeks ago and I talked up undervalued second baseman Dan Uggla. I'll do the same here. Uggla, who's ADP stands at a low 88.31, isn't the greatest real-life player and is horribly streaky at the plate. But let's not forget that he has blasted 30 or more home runs and collected right around 90 RBI in each of the last three seasons. Don't over-think your draft board, just target results.

Questionable Selection: The guy who selected Chone Figgins at the bottom of the sixth round told me that he almost immediately regretted the pick, and rightly so. Figgins is a nice all-around player and will help the Mariners compete all summer for the AL West crown, but the 32-year-old has never once hit more than nine home runs or racked up more than 62 RBI.

[SIZE=+1]Round Seven[/SIZE]

7. 1. Carlos Lee
7. 2. Billy Butler
7. 3. Adam Jones
7. 4. Bobby Abreu
7. 5. Matt Wieters
7. 6. Jonathan Papelbon
7. 7. Torii Hunter
7. 8. Derrek Lee
7. 9. Andrew McCutchen
7. 10. Mariano Rivera
7. 11. Cole Hamels
7. 12. Jonathan Broxton

Best Value: It's pretty easy to fall in love with a guy like Adam Jones, who brings a large skill set to the table and covers multiple fantasy categories. He might never hit over 35 home runs or finish with more than 100 RBI, but he steals bases, scores runs and flashed 19-homer power last season for the Orioles. If he can top his 2009 numbers, even slightly, Jones will be a very useful fantasy outfielder this season.

Questionable Selection: Orioles catcher Matt Wieters is ready to break out at any time, but he certainly didn't do it last year and we're sort of doubtful that big numbers are in his immediate future this season. He's a major talent and should one day be among the top fantasy catchers. That day won't come in 2010.

[SIZE=+1]Round Eight[/SIZE]

8. 1. Carlos Pena
8. 2. Ubaldo Jimenez
8. 3. Alfonso Soriano
8. 4. Josh Beckett
8. 5. Carlos Quentin
8. 6. Michael Young
8. 7. Francisco Rodriguez
8. 8. Joakim Soria
8. 9. Matt Cain
8. 10. Chipper Jones
8. 11. Clayton Kershaw
8. 12. Yovani Gallardo

Best Value: When Carlos Pena falls to the eighth round and Lance Berkman is selected in the fifth, you know you're in an odd mock draft. Pena, 31, smacked 39 home runs last season and recorded 100 RBI while playing in only 135 games due to a freak finger injury and is entering the final year of his current contract. We love contract-year players for obvious reasons.

Questionable Selection: I took a chance on Chipper Jones in the eighth round of this draft and I'm already willing to admit that it was probably a mistake. The future Hall of Famer has struggled to stay healthy and finished with a relatively unimpressive 18 homers and 71 RBI last season. There were (and are) better third base options.

[SIZE=+1]Round Nine[/SIZE]

9. 1. Raul Ibanez
9. 2. Gordon Beckham
9. 3. Miguel Montero
9. 4. Jason Bartlett
9. 5. Alexei Ramirez
9. 6. Carlos Beltran
9. 7. Hunter Pence
9. 8. Jake Peavy
9. 9. Stephen Drew
9. 10. Nate McLouth
9. 11. Heath Bell
9. 12. Francisco Cordero

Best Value: He doesn't exactly have sleeper status because plenty of people know how well he hit last season, but Miguel Montero is being selected far too late for our liking. The same happened in this mock, and I was able to snag him in the ninth round. Montero, 26, hit .316/.366/.534 after the All-Star break last season with 11 home runs and 40 RBI. Extended over a full year, that's big-time stuff.

Questionable Selection: Some owners tend to panic when the few quality shortstops are taken off the board in the first five or six rounds. That panic, however, should never lead to drafting Alexei Ramirez in the ninth. He does nothing especially well and hit only .277 last season with 15 home runs. Stephen Drew, selected a few picks later in this round, has far more upside and will almost certainly have a more productive 2010 season.

 

[HacheMan]

March Mockin': Part Two
Below you'll find the final nine rounds of a fantasy baseball mock draft that I participated in Thursday evening with a group of strangers over on the excellent MockDraftCentral.com. Part One, detailing rounds 1-9, can be found HERE.

Overwhelmed? Have a draft coming up? Our award-winning online Rotworld Draft Guide can make selecting a quality fantasy squad far easier. Check it out.

[SIZE=+1]Round Nine[/SIZE]

9. 1. Raul Ibanez
9. 2. Gordon Beckham
9. 3. Miguel Montero
9. 4. Jason Bartlett
9. 5. Alexei Ramirez
9. 6. Carlos Beltran
9. 7. Hunter Pence
9. 8. Jake Peavy
9. 9. Stephen Drew
9. 10. Nate McLouth
9. 11. Heath Bell
9. 12. Francisco Cordero

Best Value: He doesn't exactly have sleeper status because plenty of people know how well he hit last season, but Miguel Montero is being selected far too late for our liking. The same happened in this mock, and I was able to snag him in the ninth round. Montero, 26, hit .316/.366/.534 after the All-Star break last season with 11 home runs and 40 RBI. Extended over a full year, that's big-time stuff.

Questionable Selection: Some owners tend to panic when the few quality shortstops are taken off the board in the first five or six rounds. That panic, however, should never lead to drafting Alexei Ramirez in the ninth. He does nothing especially well and hit only .277 last season with 15 home runs. Stephen Drew, selected a few picks later in this round, has far more upside will almost certainly have a more productive 2010 season.

[SIZE=+1]Round Ten[/SIZE]

10. 1. Michael Bourn
10. 2. Jose Lopez
10. 3. Brad Hawpe
10. 4. Michael Cuddyer
10. 5. Chad Billingsley
10. 6. Ricky Nolasco
10. 7. Brian Fuentes
10. 8. Denard Span
10. 9. Jorge Posada
10. 10. A.J. Burnett
10. 11. Andrew Bailey
10. 12. Jay Bruce

Best Value: After the initial run on sure-thing closers like Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton, fantasy owners are often left digging for saves. This draft was a little different, because there wasn't a full-on parade of closers, but rather a smattering of ninth-inning selections throughout. Andrew Bailey was a diamond in the rough, going in the 10th round behind guys like Heath Bell, Brian Fuentes and Joakim Soria. He had a 1.84 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and a 91/25 K/BB ratio in 83 1/3 innings last season while collecting 26 saves and should flourish this season on an improved A's squad. Oh, and that elbow issue he had been dealing with? It's fine.

Questionable Selection: It wasn't a bad round, and it's hard to point to one of the 12 picks above and call it "questionable." But, just for argument's sake, let's give the title to Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley. He had an ugly 5.20 ERA in 71 innings after the All-Star break last season and represents a large question mark atop the Dodgers' starting rotation heading into 2010.

[SIZE=+1]Round Eleven[/SIZE]

11. 1. John Lackey
11. 2. Matt Garza
11. 3. Wandy Rodriguez
11. 4. Jason Kubel
11. 5. Alex Rios
11. 6. Johnny Damon
11. 7. Jered Weaver
11. 8. James Shields
11. 9. Brandon Webb
11. 10. Rafael Furcal
11. 11. Carlos Gonzalez
11. 12. Nyjer Morgan

Best Value: I got a lot of guff via e-mail and Twitter for touting my own picks too often in Part One of this mock draft series, but that doesn't change the fact that I was pumped to land Wandy Rodriguez in Round 11. Wandy totaled 193 strikeouts in 205 2/3 innings last year along with 14 wins, a 3.02 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. It may be a rough season in the NL Central for the aging 'Stros, but the 31-year-old Rodriguez is guaranteed to provide a bright spot.

Questionable Selection: It's not hard to identify the misplaced selection in this round. Alex Rios, who hit just .247 with a .296 on-base percentage last season was taken one pick before Johnny Damon, who hit 24 home runs last year. Yes, Damon's stats were aided by the cozy confines of Yankee Stadium and the star-studded lineup that surrounded him in New York, but the Tigers' lineup isn't exactly light-hitting and he's in excellent shape for a 36-year-old man. Rios, on the other hand, has missed time this spring with shoulder and quad soreness and hasn't tallied over 20 home runs since 2007.

[SIZE=+1]Round Twelve[/SIZE]

12. 1. Vladimir Guerrero
12. 2. Jose Valverde
12. 3. Miguel Tejada
12. 4. Brian Wilson
12. 5. Julio Borbon
12. 6. Jason Heyward
12. 7. Russell Martin
12. 8. Carlos Marmol
12. 9. Chris Davis
12. 10. Rafael Soriano
12. 11. Brett Anderson
12. 12. Billy Wagner

Best Value: A's lefty Brett Anderson burst onto the scene in 2009, collecting 11 wins and a 1.28 WHIP while fanning 150 batters in 175 1/3 innings. Some experts are worried about his durability this season after such a lengthy rookie campaign, but he's a steal in Round 12 if he is able to stay healthy.

Questionable Selection: It's hard to knock many 12th-round picks, seeing as most fantasy leagues only allow nine or 10 starting position players. Vladimir Guerrero screams injury risk, but he should do some real damage down in Texas if he can avoid the disabled list. The 35-year-old boasts a .394/.471/.705 in the Rangers' home ballpark.

<!--RW-->

[SIZE=+1]Round Thirteen[/SIZE]

13. 1. Geovany Soto
13. 2. Neftali Feliz
13. 3. Frank Francisco
13. 4. Jair Jurrjens
13. 5. Max Scherzer
13. 6. Ian Stewart
13. 7. Roy Oswalt
13. 8. John Danks
13. 9. Huston Street
13. 10. Howie Kendrick
13. 11. Jorge Cantu
13. 12. Ryan Franklin

Best Value: Ian Stewart has fallen past the 12th round in every single mock draft that I've participated in this spring. Why? We can't put our finger on it. The 24-year-old from Long Beach, California hit 25 home runs and tallied 70 RBI last season in just 425 at-bats for the Rockies. He has serious power potential and third base is far from deep this year.

Questionable Selection: Rangers youngster Neftali Feliz is one of the brightest pitching talents in the majors and should one day morph into a dominant starting pitcher. But he's in a setup role heading into 2010 and this is not a holds league.

[SIZE=+1]Round Fourteen[/SIZE]

14. 1. Kurt Suzuki
14. 2. Kevin Slowey
14. 3. Bobby Jenks
14. 4. Carlos Zambrano
14. 5. Trevor Hoffman
14. 6. James Loney
14. 7. Yunel Escobar
14. 8. Scott Baker
14. 9. David Aardsma
14. 10. Rajai Davis
14. 11. Corey Hart
14. 12. Mike Gonzalez

Best Value: As I noted in Part One, drafting Jacoby Ellsbury in the second round makes little sense because he only dominates one fantasy category. Finding a guy that dominates a category in the 14th round is a different story. Rajai Davis, 29, stole 41 bases last season for the A's in just 390 at-bats. Now with a starting gig all to himself, we're thinking he might come close to doubling that number, and Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson agrees.

Questionable Selection: Few fantasy owners take the time to research the closer position and it tends to show on draft day. Mike Gonzalez was signed to a two-year, $12 million deal this winter to take over the ninth inning for the Orioles, but he's already missed time with various ailments this spring and his fastball clocked in between 86 and 89 MPH in an outing last week. There's something going on with his once-intimidating left arm.

[SIZE=+1]Round Fifteen[/SIZE]

15. 1. David Price
15. 2. Ryan Doumit
15. 3. Ryan Dempster
15. 4. Ryan Ludwick
15. 5. Chris Iannetta
15. 6. Asdrubal Cabrera
15. 7. Adrian Beltre
15. 8. Chad Qualls
15. 9. David Ortiz
15. 10. Mike Napoli
15. 11. Brad Lidge
15. 12. Bengie Molina

Best Value: Chad Qualls, for whatever reason, is being buried in drafts this season. He had a 1.15 WHIP, 24 saves and a 45/7 K/BB ratio in 52 innings last season as the Diamondbacks' closer and is likely to find more save opportunities in Arizona this year. The D'Backs, headed by Dan Haren, Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds, are ready to make serious run in the National League West. And Qualls will be a big part of that effort.

Questionable Selection: We love Chris Iannetta, the Rockies' 26-year-old catcher, but he is going to split time behind the plate this season with Miguel Olivo and his fantasy value will be limited. It's a shame, too, because he recorded 16 home runs and 52 RBI in 289 at-bats last season and would probably double both numbers if given Yadier Molina-like playing time.

[SIZE=+1]Round Sixteen[/SIZE]

16. 1. Edwin Jackson
16. 2. Nolan Reimold
16. 3. Orlando Cabrera
16. 4. Ben Sheets
16. 5. Ted Lillly
16. 6. Francisco Liriano
16. 7. Orlando Hudson
16. 8. Scott Kazmir
16. 9. Todd Helton
16. 10. Gavin Floyd
16. 11. Rickie Weeks
16. 12. Matt Capps

Best Value: I've said it before and I'll say it again: upside is king. Nolan Reimold, the Orioles' 26-year-old outfielder, carries all the potential in the world and is set to improve this year on his impressive rookie season. The Pennsylvania native hit .279/.365/.466 in 2009 with 15 home runs, eight stolen bases and 45 RBI in just 105 games. He enters 2010 with a starting job and our Rotoworld Draft Guide's seal of approval.

Questionable Selection: Fantasy owners are often left fishing for quality starters in the later rounds of drafts, after all position players are locked up and utility men are all-aboard. That doesn't mean taking a chance on an injured starter is the right move. Scott Kazmir, now pitching for the Angels after last year's trade, reported feeling tightness in his left shoulder on Thursday and is questionable for the start of the season. If you don't think this issue will linger, you haven't tracked the talented Kazmir's six-year professional career.

[SIZE=+1]Round Seventeen[/SIZE]

17. 1. Travis Snider
17. 2. Elvis Andrus
17. 3. Jorge De La Rosa
17. 4. Jhonny Peralta
17. 5. Colby Rasmus
17. 6. Erick Aybar
17. 7. Alcides Escobar
17. 8. Vernon Wells
17. 9. Adam LaRoche
17. 10. Marco Scutaro
17. 11. Octavio Dotel
17. 12. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Best Value: Finding a reliable save option in the 17th round of a 12-team draft is worthy of praise, so we better get on with it. Octavio Dotel was brought aboard by the Pirates this offseason on a one-year, $3.25 million contract. He's not the greatest reliever going, but he compiled a 3.55 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and an 11.6 K/9 in 134 appearances over the last two seasons with the White Sox. Dotel is being trusted with ninth-inning duties in Pittsburgh this year and should do just fine.

Questionable Selection: Remember when Daisuke Matsuzaka went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 29 starts for the Red Sox? It was only one year ago. Still, those days of success are long gone and have been replaced by battles with Red Sox management over conditioning philosophies and endless setbacks to minor injuries. Dice-K isn't exactly an attractive fantasy option heading into 2010.

[SIZE=+1]Round Eighteen[/SIZE]

18. 1. Joba Chamberlain
18. 2. Johnny Cueto
18. 3. Clay Buchholz
18. 4. Rich Harden
18. 5. Chris Coghlan
18. 6. Conor Jackson
18. 7. Andy Pettitte
18. 8. Alex Gordon
18. 9. Rick Porcello
18. 10. Jonathan Sanchez
18. 11. Tim Hudson
18. 12. Mark Buehrle

Best Value: The injuries are often too frustrating to deal with, but people tend to forget how nasty Rich Harden can be when healthy. We here at Rotoworld like to gravitate toward high-strikeout pitchers, and the 28-year-old righty from Victoria, Canada struck out 171 batters in 141 innings last season. As long as he can steer clear of the disabled list, Harden is a big time fantasy starter and a major value in the 18th round of this draft.

Questionable Selection: Yankees manager Joe Girardi announced Thursday that Phil Hughes will serve as the club's No. 5 starter this season, meaning Joba Chamberlain has been relegated to middle relief duties. Most fantasy leagues don't count holds, and this mock league is (or was) no different. Chamberlain will carry little value unless there's an injury on the Yanks' staff. Drafting him means relying on too many uncontrollable factors

 

[HacheMan]

NFBC Mock Draft Analysis
Last Saturday afternoon, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship leagues drafted across the nation in Atlantic City, Las Vegas and New York City. Over 480 players are competing for a shot at the $100,000 grand prize, but the more immediate focus in many leagues is the $5,000 league prize for each 15-team Rotisserie league with standard 5x5 stats.

Our draft was held in the corporate boxes of Citi Field, and perhaps it will serve as a nice deep-league mock for those of you in last-minute drafts. The competition was certainly top-notch.

Team 1: Jeffrey Mitz, Chicago, Illinois
Team 2: Ron Marien, Bloomington, Minnesota
Team 3: Raymond Ventura, Bridgewater, New Jersey
Team 4: George Puhl, Metamora, Illinois
Team 5: Rick McLaughlin, Avon, Connecticut
Team 6: Eno Sarris, New York, New York
Team 7: Scott Skillings, Chicago, Illinois
Team 8: Virgilio Ramos, Guaynbo, Puerto Rico
Team 9: Robert Mihulka, Mt. Morris, Michigan
Team 10: Doug Cassidy, Scarsdale, New York
Team 11: August Thompson, Fairfield, Calfornia
Team 12: Doug Gruber, Troy, Michigan
Team 13: Brian Zirlin, Short Hills, New Jersey
Team 14: Andrew Moody, Columbus, Ohio
Team 15: George Kleemann, Palatine, Illinois

Below are the results of rounds 1-10. The rest of the mock draft will be available later this week. My picks are in bold, blue lettering. I wish I could tell you I feel great about this draft, but you may see from the analysis that follows, I'm my own worst critic at times.

Questions, comments, anything? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter. Enjoy!

1. 1. Albert Pujols
1. 2. Hanley Ramirez
1. 3. Alex Rodriguez
1. 4. Chase Utley
1. 5. Ryan Braun
1. 6. Matt Kemp
1. 7. Troy Tulowitzki
1. 8. David Wright
1. 9. Prince Fielder
1. 10. Evan Longoria
1. 11. Tim Lincecum
1. 12. Carl Crawford
1. 13. Miguel Cabrera
1. 14. Mark Teixeira
1. 15. Ryan Howard

Best Value: It's hard to assign a first-round pick with the 'value' moniker, but I'm sure the Mark Teixeira owner was ecstatic to get the metronome Yankee first baseman at #14. He won't cause any batting average problems, will be elite in home runs, runs and RBI, and may have an even better #2 hitter in front of him this year.

Questionable Selection: There's nothing wrong with Carl Crawford. Well, except for the fact that he's the only position player in the first round that has no shot of hitting thirty home runs this year. Unless the team that picked him drafts heavy on power in the middle rounds, they might find themselves behind the eight-ball to start. Either way, they now have a weakness that they will have to work on in the coming rounds.

Already lost? Check out our award-winning Rotoworld Draft Guide for all sorts of cheat sheets, rankings and analysis. You won't be sorry.

2. 1. Joe Mauer
2. 2. Jimmy Rollins
2. 3. Justin Upton
2. 4. Kevin Youkilis
2. 5. Matt Holliday
2. 6. Ian Kinsler
2. 7. Ryan Zimmerman
2. 8. Roy Halladay
2. 9. Grady Sizemore
2. 10. Mark Reynolds
2. 11. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 12. Brian McCann
2. 13. Brandon Phillips
2. 14. Joey Votto
2. 15. Pablo Sandoval

Best Value: In the second round, you can begin to talk about someone 'falling' past their expected draft position, especially when there's a potential first-rounder in question. That's right, I'm calling Ian Kinsler a potential first-round talent. He's a 30/30 infielder, and with a couple better bounces of the balls he puts in play this year, that batting average can rise to a respectable level. If you could get Grady Sizemore at second base, you'd leap at the chance, right?

Questionable Selection: Just after talking up a power/speed guy on the middle infield, it's time to wonder if Jimmy Rollins is really the seventeenth-best player in fantasy baseball this year. Sure, he should rebound from one of his worst years, but at 31, he's past his power and speed peak, and he was never a good batting average guy to begin with. Rollins might fit fine at the end of this round, so it's not egregious or anything, but any one of the elite third basemen or outfielders in this round are probably preferable.
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3. 1. Adrian Gonzalez
3. 2. Jason Bay
3. 3. Kendry Morales
3. 4. Nelson Cruz
3. 5. Jose Reyes
3. 6. Victor Martinez
3. 7. Dustin Pedroia
3. 8. Felix Hernandez
3. 9. Zack Greinke
3. 10. Adam Lind
3. 11. CC Sabathia
3. 12. Andre Ethier
3. 13. Ichiro Suzuki
3. 14. Robinson Cano
3. 15. Curtis Granderson

Best Value: This is the round where managers started filling positional needs, as you can tell by placement of the two second basemen that won't hit 30 or steal 20 this year, but at least those two guys also play on elite offenses and will provide buckets of runs and RBI. Getting Greinke and his fantasy ace stats – which were comparable to Tim LIncecum's 2009 stats in many ways – has to be seen as a great value, however.

Questionable Selection: Kendry Morales didn't have power like last year in the minor leagues, and he didn't hit lefties like that either. Expect some regression from him in both departments, and if he doesn't hit for the same gaudy average, and doesn't clear 30 home runs, a third-round pick for him will feel a little wasted. Jose Reyes is a big boom-or-bust pick, but at least his upside is of the first-round variety.

4. 1. Derek Jeter
4. 2. B.J. Upton
4. 3. Josh Hamilton
4. 4. Ben Zobrist
4. 5. Nick Markakis
4. 6. Jayson Werth
4. 7. Derrek Lee
4. 8. Aaron Hill
4. 9. Matt Wieters
4. 10. Dan Haren
4. 11. Justin Verlander
4. 12. Andrew McCutchen
4. 13. Jon Lester
4. 14. Justin Morneau
4. 15. Manny Ramirez

Best Value: In a fifteen-team league, the fourth round starts to show some warts. On the other hand, Justin Morneau is strong slugger that should outperform both of the first basemen taken immediately ahead of him – and even if he doesn't, he's surely going to be neck-and-neck with Kendry Morales, who was picked almost two full rounds ahead of him. As a shortstop, Ben Zobrist also deserves a nod here. Even with some power regression, he could easily be a .280/20/10 shortstop, which sounds way too much like Troy Tulowitzki to be available this late.

Questionable Selection: We've seen plenty of years from Derrek Lee, and we know he's on the wrong side of his peak. He wasn't really a perennial slugger when he was at his best – he was more of a line-drive hitting guy with a great batting average and a couple of steals to boot. Well, now the steals are dwindling, and if he doesn't hit last year's power totals, this pick will certainly feel like it could have been used better.

5. 1. Adam Dunn
5. 2. Josh Beckett
5. 3. Carlos Lee
5. 4. Tommy Hanson
5. 5. Hunter Pence
5. 6. Chone Figgins
5. 7. Carlos Pena
5. 8. Johan Santana
5. 9. Shin-Soo Choo
5. 10. Adam Wainwright
5. 11. Jonathan Broxton
5. 12. Shane Victorino
5. 13. Chris Carpenter
5. 14. Aramis Ramirez
5. 15. Josh Johnson

Best Value: Just to help you place this round, these are picks #61 through 75 overall. Despite his declining strikeout totals, advancing age, and injury status, does it seem right that Johan Santana should fall all the way to this round? He's a former first-rounder as recent as 2008, and he plays in a great park. The lack of postseason innings in recent years could have him fresh this year. This seems like a great place to swing for the fences, and he's not completely injury prone (Chris Carpenter), and he won't have the young-player adjustments to make (Tommy Hanson) or the Yankees to face (Josh Beckett). Getting a potential 30-home-run third baseman like Aramis Ramirez in this round was also a great move that deserves mention.

Questionable Selection: I love the flyin' Hawaiian, but he doesn't have a ton of power, and he's not an elite base stealer. Put it together and you're probably looking at something like a .280 batting average with ten home runs and thirty stolen bases. There's much better value elsewhere in this round.
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6. 1. Jake Peavy
6. 2. Clayton Kershaw
6. 3. Yovani Gallardo
6. 4. Wandy Rodriguez
6. 5. Brian Roberts
6. 6. Billy Butler
6. 7. Cole Hamels
6. 8. Jason Bartlett
6. 9. Ricky Nolasco
6. 10. Ubaldo Jimenez
6. 11. Matt Cain
6. 12. Javier Vazquez
6. 13. Elvis Andrus
6. 14. Michael Young
6. 15. Adam Jones

Best Value: Starter run! Sometimes it's great to zig when others are zagging in order to find good value in a draft, but there are some great pitchers in this round that deserve shout-outs. Cole Hamels did nothing different in 2009 than he did in 2008, he just got a little unlucky. Expect more of a 2008 version this year. Ricky Nolasco looks great this spring and finished the year superbly last year. At least one pundit has him on his short list for the Cy Young this year. Yovani Gallardo and Clayton Kershaw are young aces on the come-up, too.

Questionable Selection: Brian Roberts is hurting right now, and backs can be balky things. If he struggles with the issue all year, he won't justify this pick. But since the round was dedicated to pitching for the most part, let's just point out that Javier Vazquez had bad home run rates in the American League that magically went away in Atlanta. Then remember how many home runs left that new Yankee park, and you might just predict a strained neck for Vazquez as he watches his offerings sail out of the park.

7. 1. Cliff Lee
7. 2. Michael Bourn
7. 3. Scott Baker
7. 4. A.J. Burnett
7. 5. Gordon Beckham
7. 6. Mariano Rivera
7. 7. Carlos Quentin
7. 8. Lance Berkman
7. 9. Heath Bell
7. 10. Matt Garza
7. 11. Bobby Abreu
7. 12. Joakim Soria
7. 13. Alfonso Soriano
7. 14. Jonathan Papelbon
7. 15. Julio Borbon

Best Value: It's fun to start a closer run like that, but it's the pick after Mariano Rivera that might give his owner the best value in this round. Carlos Quentin has shown both massive power as well as the ability to get hit by pitches constantly. The first skill is great, the second only leads to more time on the DL. If he can stay healthy, another big power year will dwarf the seventy innings and saves totals that half of the rest of the round will get from their picks.

Questionable Selection: We all know AJ Burnett can strike guys out, but the other skills are eroding in front of our eyes. He's no longer a ground-baller, he's giving up more walks as he ages, and he's in the wrong league and division to be fringe-y in any category. He's had a WHIP over 1.35 the last two years! Maybe that's all that needs to be said.

8. 1. Juan Pierre
8. 2. Carlos Gonzalez
8. 3. Torii Hunter
8. 4. Howie Kendrick
8. 5. Alexei Ramirez
8. 6. Chad Billingsley
8. 7. Brian Wilson
8. 8. Alex Rios
8. 9. Brett Anderson
8. 10. Dan Uggla
8. 11. Jair Jurrjens
8. 12. Chris Davis
8. 13. Denard Span
8. 14. Jose Valverde
8. 15. Francisco Rodriguez

Best Value: There are some nice picks in this round. Juan Pierre should love playing for Carlos Guillen, Carlos Gonzalez is ready to go CarGo all year, Brett Anderson's slider is one of the best pitches in baseball right now, Chad Billingsley could easily rejoin the elite this year, and Brian Wilson is a secret elite closer. Not to pat my own back, but getting a thirty-home-run second baseman with the 115th pick seems like the best value of the bunch. It certainly saved my draft, as you might see later.

Questionable Selection: Not only does Jair Jurrgens have the shoulder issues, but his underlying stats suggested that he would regress this year. Chris Davis might hit 30 home runs this year, but with his strikeout rate, he's really much more of a risk than anyone else in this round. You have to take your sleepers early in a tough draft like this, but Davis seems a reach here.
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9. 1. John Lackey
9. 2. Asdrubal Cabrera
9. 3. Billy Wagner
9. 4. Jason Heyward
9. 5. James Shields
9. 6. Miguel Montero
9. 7. Jay Bruce
9. 8. Carlos Beltran
9. 9. Yunel Escobar
9. 10. Francisco Rodriguez
9. 11. Jose Lopez
9. 12. Ian Stewart
9. 13. Russell Martin
9. 14. Geovany Soto
9. 15. Carlos Marmol

Best Value: Jay Bruce leaps off the page as a great pick in this round. He suffered from poor luck on balls in play last year, and had an injury that slowed him down, too. He's healthy again and ready to put a charge into the ball. Obviously, I also like Miguel Montero's chances of repeating his strong year, and even think that nice home park might help him pad his power stats as well. Having Victor Martinez and Montero in a two-catcher league puts me a step ahead.

Questionable Selection: Of course, there's nothing wrong with taking a catcher in this round. Two of the catchers taken make a lot of sense. But Russell Martin? He's got a groin injury that could sap one of his few above-average skills – his speed – and his power has been waning from the get-go. Picking Beltran seems a stretch, but at least he hadn't been declining for two years before he got hurt. There are some risky picks this round (Jason Heyward!) but the risky picks all have more upside than Martin's .280 average and double-digit home runs and steals, even if he is a catcher.

10. 1. Rafael Soriano
10. 2. Roy Oswalt
10. 3. Rickie Weeks
10. 4. Ryan Doumit
10. 5. Nyjer Morgan
10. 6. Rajai Davis
10. 7. Stephen Drew
10. 8. Andrew Bailey
10. 9. Adrian Beltre
10. 10. Jason Kubel
10. 11. Jorge Posada
10. 12. Everth Cabrera
10. 13. Bobby Jenks
10. 14. Nate McLouth
10. 15. Jered Weaver

Best Value: In the round of speed, it's the power pick – Adrian Beltre – that gets the "best value" nod. Beltre's career line away from home is .287/.338/.488, and since that's in over 3000 at-bats away from the pitching-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium and Safeco Field, the numbers are significant. It seems that he will enjoy calling a hitter-friendly park home for once. He could provide great value for the 144th pick.

Questionable Selection: Closers are a crap-shoot anyway – about a third lose their jobs every year due to injury or poor performance – but taking Andrew Bailey here right after he's complained about elbow soreness seems like tempting fate. It's doubtful that Everth Cabrera puts up a nice batting average this year, but at least he should play all year and put up some stats. You can't say the same thing about Bailey.

 

[HacheMan]

NFBC Draft Analysis (Part 2)
Earlier this week, we looked at rounds 1-10 of my National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft. This 15-team, 30-round behemoth of a draft should give you deep league drafters a sense of the where the less heralded players are going. In particular, rounds 10-30 should help uncover some deeper sleepers and go where many other mock drafts don't go.

So let's take a look at the some of the most important rounds in any draft. Remember to root for me as I compete for the $100,000 prize! Below are the results of rounds 10-30. We'll have to move a little faster in order to get through all these rounds, so we're picking up the pace. My picks are in bold, blue lettering.

11. 1. Rafael Furcal
11. 2. Mike Napoli
11. 3. Kurt Suzuki
11. 4. Adam LaRoche
11. 5. Francisco Liriano
11. 6. Alcides Escobar
11. 7. Gavin Floyd
11. 8. Chipper Jones
11. 9. Raul Ibanez
11. 10. Bengie Molina
11. 11. Vladimir Guerrero
11. 12. Max Scherzer
11. 13. Ryan Dempster
11. 14. Tim Hudson
11. 15. Mark Buehrle

12. 1. Carlos Zambrano
12. 2. Chad Qualls
12. 3. Frank Francisco
12. 4. Rich Harden
12. 5. Paul Konerko
12. 6. Ryan Ludwick
12. 7. Jorge De La Rosa
12. 8. Johnny Damon
12. 9. Kevin Slowey
12. 10. Ted Lilly
12. 11. [Missing Pick]
12. 12. David Aardsma
12. 13. Jonathan Sanchez
12. 14. David Price
12. 15. Ryan Franklin

13. 1. Colby Rasmus
13. 2. Brad Hawpe
13. 3. Trevor Hoffman
13. 4. Brian Fuentes
13. 5. Huston Street
13. 6. Michael Cuddyer
13. 7. Chris Coghlan
13. 8. Brad Lidge
13. 9. Vernon Wells
13. 10. Mike Gonzalez
13. 11. Rick Porcello
13. 12. Phil Hughes
13. 13. Jorge Cantu
13. 14. Dexter Fowler
13. 15. Mark Teahen

Best Values: Getting Tim Hudson with the 164th pick of the draft has to count as a victory. His groundball percentage and strikeout rate last year rebounded well with his fresh elbow ligament in place, and it seems to follow that he'll do better with more rehab under his belt. Francisco Liriano is a much riskier bet, with a much bigger upside. Ted Lilly is in the same mold as Hudson: injury has made him undervalued – but Lilly's injury was mostly to his knee. The shoulder portion of his surgery was minor.

In the thirteenth round, getting Brad Hawpe and his solid power and batting average is a coup – fantasy owners don't have to worry about his poor defense. Chad Qualls is an excellent closer to get this late. Philip Hughes and Dexter Fowler are some nice upside picks in that round, though Fowler's playing time situation is a little cloudy.

Questionable Selections: Of course, with the "two catchers" portion of the lineup staring them in the face, teams have to pick somebody to play the position, but Kurt Suzuki won't hit many home runs and won't steal many bases. His upside is sort of like 75% of Russell Martin's work a few years back. Not so exciting, and the slower-than-molasses Bengie Molina is even worse considering his age and the surging Buster Posey behind him.

Maybe Jonathan Sanchez finally walks under four batters a game this year… maybe. Vernon Wells and Mark Teahen don't do much but take up a position on the lineup chart, not sure what reasons for excitement they provide. Then again, Wells gets lucky with the batted balls every once in a while, so it could happen again.

This draft is starting to get deep! Our award-winning Rotoworld Draft Guide goes even deeper and has all sorts of cheat sheets, rankings and analysis. Check it out. You won't be sorry.

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14. 1. David Ortiz
14. 2. Clay Buchholz
14. 3. Garrett Jones
14. 4. Miguel Tejada
14. 5. James Loney
14. 6. Stephen Strasburg
14. 7. A.J. Pierzynski
14. 8. Corey Hart
14. 9. Brian Matusz
14. 10. Nolan Reimold
14. 11. Octavio Dotel
14. 12. Todd Helton
14. 13. Placido Polanco
14. 14. Jeff Niemann
14. 15. Ryan Theriot

15. 1. Scott Kazmir
15. 2. Chris Iannetta
15. 3. Juan Rivera
15. 4. Troy Glaus
15. 5. Martin Prado
15. 6. Mat Latos
15. 7. Matt Capps
15. 8. Magglio Ordonez
15. 9. Edwin Jackson
15. 10. Orlando Cabrera
15. 11. Leo Nunez
15. 12. Kevin Kouzmanoff
15. 13. Brandon Webb
15. 14. Hideki Matsui
15. 15. Nick Johnson

16. 1. Scott Sizemore
16. 2. Johnny Cueto
16. 3. Erick Aybar
16. 4. Jason Frasor
16. 5. Yadier Molina
16. 6. Chris Perez
16. 7. Luis Valbuena
16. 8. Ben Sheets
16. 9. Matt Thornton
16. 10. Scott Podsednik
16. 11. Kyle Blanks
16. 12. Aroldis Chapman
16. 13. J.D. Drew
16. 14. Buster Posey
16. 15. Travis Snider

Best Values: Stephen Strasburg is the shiny new toy, but Brian Matusz has already had some time to adjust in the major leagues and has a guaranteed rotation spot, too. Nolan Reimold has power and speed, and though he's a little hobbled, he played through a 25% tear of the same tendon last year. He'll be fine. Chris Iannetta has more power than the last two catchers taken and with a little better luck on the batted ball could even sport an okay batting average.

Leo Nunez is a pretty terrible closer, but why not get a closer with the 221st pick of the draft? Scott Sizemore has double-digit steal and power potential and looks to the be the starter at second base in Detroit. With an MI spot in a league this deep, he's a great pick. Kyle Blanks has gobs of power, and him and Travis Snider could really break out this year. This is a perfect place to get them, and the Scott Podsednik pick was probably the worst pick of the draft for me considering that those two went right after. Darn offline drafts are tough.

Questionable Selections: Corey Hart strikes out too much and his power has been waning for three years. Perhaps he turns it around, but there's not really much reason to be optimistic, especially given his poor spring. Magglio Ordonez will offer up an empty batting average and plenty of reasons for his manager to put him on the bench, like last year. He's clearly in decline. Orlando Cabrera is in a similar position and he makes a poor candidate for even an MI position unless his speed magically returns.

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17. 1. Lastings Milledge
17. 2. Aaron Harang
17. 3. Hiroki Kuroda
17. 4. Ryan Madson
17. 5. Nick Swisher
17. 6. Wade Davis
17. 7. Daniel Bard
17. 8. Franklin Gutierrez
17. 9. Franklin Morales
17. 10. J.J. Hardy
17. 11. Derek Lowe
17. 12. Kelly Johnson
17. 13. Kerry Wood
17. 14. Josh Willingham
17. 15. Marlon Byrd

18. 1. Randy Wells
18. 2. Sean Rodriguez
18. 3. Chris Young (OF)
18. 4. Conor Jackson
18. 5. Randy Wolf
18. 6. Homer Bailey
18. 7. Kelly Shoppach
18. 8. Neftali Feliz
18. 9. Ian Desmond
18. 10. Ryan Rowland-Smith
18. 11. Carlos Santana
18. 12. Casey Blake
18. 13. Andy Pettitte
18. 14. J.A. Happ
18. 15. Jon Rauch

19. 1. Ervin Santana
19. 2. Matt Lindstrom
19. 3. Mark DeRosa
19. 4. Kevin Correia
19. 5. Jhonny Peralta
19. 6. Brett Gardner
19. 7. Milton Bradley
19. 8. Marco Scutaro
19. 9. Cody Ross
19. 10. Erik Bedard
19. 11. Chase Headley
19. 12. Ian Kennedy
19. 13. Justin Masterson
19. 14. Chris Young (SP)
19. 15. Ryan Raburn

Best Values: It's hard not to look at Wade Davis' debut last season, and the announcement that he's made the rotation this year, and not get excited. He has ace ability and is a top prospect making good. Kelly Johnson just needs a little better luck on the batted ball to find his old .280-hitting, modest-power-having self.

Neftali Feliz has the skills to make an impact somewhere and somehow, and this late makes a great home run pick. Ian Desmond has a little power, a little speed, and a starting spot now. Brett Gardner has a lot of speed, and should beat out the flotsam and jetsam battling for the Yankee's left field job, even if a confirming announcement has not been made yet.

Questionable Selections: Marlon Byrd had a career year in a hitter's park, should regress, and is in a crowded outfield. Not a great recipe for success. Chris Young the outfielder just plain strikes out too much to put up a good batting average, and he could sink a team's average on his own. He's a bit of a problem in a roto league like this one.

Jhonny Peralta hasn't had gotten much juice out of the strange placement of the 'h' in his name, and has only been walking less, striking out more, and hitting for less power for at least three years now. Every once in a while he has a good season, but that's a bit of a lottery ticket there, and the upside is not super exciting.

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20. 1. Juan Gutierrez
20. 2. Carlos Gomez
20. 3. Alex Gordon
20. 4. Mike Cameron
20. 5. Jeff Francoeur
20. 6. Ramon Hernandez
20. 7. Ricky Romero
20. 8. Daisuke Matsuzaka
20. 9. Travis Hafner
20. 10. Seth Smith
20. 11. Garrett Atkins
20. 12. Austin Jackson
20. 13. John Baker
20. 14. Joe Blanton
20. 15. Justin Duchscherer

21. 1. Casey McGehee
21. 2. Joba Chamberlain
21. 3. Drew Stubbs
21. 4. Carlos Ruiz
21. 5. Scott Rolen
21. 6. Luke Gregerson
21. 7. Alex Avila
21. 8. Jeff Clement
21. 9. Aubrey Huff
21. 10. Shaun Marcum
21. 11. Bronson Arroyo
21. 12. Brett Myers
21. 13. Clint Barmes
21. 14. Matt LaPorta
21. 15. Jake Fox

22. 1. Marc Rzepczynski
22. 2. Brad Penny
22. 3. Jason Hammel
22. 4. Sammy Gervacio
22. 5. Colby Lewis
22. 6. Edwin Encarnacion
22. 7. Alberto Callaspo
22. 8. Delmon Young
22. 9. Cameron Maybin
22. 10. Derek Holland
22. 11. Fausto Carmona
22. 12. Coco Crisp
22. 13. Orlando Hudson
22. 14. Chris Getz
22. 15. Trevor Cahill

23. 1. Matt Guerrier
23. 2. Nick Blackburn
23. 3. Brandon League
23. 4. Andruw Jones
23. 5. Fernando Rodney
23. 6. John Maine
23. 7. Michael Wuertz
23. 8. Brandon Wood
23. 9. Luke Scott
23. 10. Matt Diaz
23. 11. Brandon Lyon
23. 12. Maicer Izturis
23. 13. Mike Adams
23. 14. J.R. Towles
23. 15. George Sherrill

24. 1. Takashi Saito
24. 2. Pedro Alvarez
24. 3. Luke Hochevar
24. 4. Jason Motte
24. 5. David DeJesus
24. 6. Jose Guillen
24. 7. Miguel Olivo
24. 8. Drew Storen
24. 9. Gio Gonzalez
24. 10. Eric Young Jr.
24. 11. Mike Stanton
24. 12. Kevin Gregg
24. 13. Jonny Gomes
24. 14. Pat Burrell
24. 15. Brandon Morrow

25. 1. Michael Brantley
25. 2. Jack Cust
25. 3. Joe Saunders
25. 4. Luis Castillo
25. 5. Rick Ankiel
25. 6. Matt Joyce
25. 7. Michael Taylor
25. 8. Jesus Montero
25. 9. Carl Pavano
25. 10. Chris Tillman
25. 11. Brandon Inge
25. 12. Brian Augustine
25. 13. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
25. 14. David Freese
25. 15. Xavier Nady

Best Values: Getting a formerly hyped prospect like Alex Gordon with the 288th pick of the draft is worth it. Before he got hurt last year (and this year), Gordon was making incremental improvement in many categories. He could still get healthy have a good year this year. Austin Jackson is having a great spring, but his upside is questionable according to scouts and statisticians alike. Despite the divided camps, he's worth the pick here. Matt LaPorta has power and should find at-bats all year in Cleveland. He'll make his owner look really smart if he hits .280 this year with close to 30 home runs. He has shown that kind of potential before.

Cameron Maybin makes for a similar upside play, even if speed is his main tool. If he can get the strikeouts down, he will be exciting this year. John Maine doesn't seem exciting, but he has a nice park and looks better than many of the pitchers being picked in this area. Maybe you can tell that upside is the play in these rounds, but that Mike Stanton pick made me very angry. Stanton would have been a great piece of power waiting on my bench for his callup, but instead I went for more speed – which I didn't need. At least that snafu was followed with a player like Matt Joyce who also has power, but Sean Rodriguez has been showing a lot of power while Joyce has been sidelined.

Questionable Selections: Jeff Francouer doesn't have power and his batting average oscillates between terrible and mediocre. Not quite sure what the hopes are there. Jake Fox is looking like the odd man out in Oakland unless the team releases veteran Eric Chavez in a Gary-Sheffield-like move. Michael Wuertz has a barking shoulder all of a sudden and is in a crowded bullpen with Joey Devine.

Honestly, it's hard to call picks this late bad values, but it's hard to see what sort of situation would lead to Jesus Montero playing in the Bronx this year, unless it's as a temporary injury replacement for Jorge Posada, and even then the Yankees might choose to go defense first. On the opposite end of the spectrum, will the Nationals feel the need to rush their closer prospect Drew Storen to the big leagues in order to help them lose? Brandon Inge is no longer a catcher and now just sports a catcher's batting average at third base.

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26. 1. Mike Fontenot
26. 2. Akinori Iwamura
26. 3. Clayton Richard
26. 4. Nate Schierholtz
26. 5. John Buck
26. 6. Mark Ellis
26. 7. David Murphy
26. 8. Jason Kendall
26. 9. Chris Carter (Oak)
26. 10. Gaby Sanchez
26. 11. Chris Volstad
26. 12. Barry Zito
26. 13. Russ Branyan
26. 14. Joel Pineiro
26. 15. Jaime Garcia

27. 1. Felipe Lopez
27. 2. Gil Meche
27. 3. Ross Ohlendorf
27. 4. Jon Garland
27. 5. Lou Marson
27. 6. Mike Aviles
27. 7. Bud Norris
27. 8. J.P. Howell
27. 9. Alfredo Aceves
27. 10. Madison Bumgarner
27. 11. Jermaine Dye
27. 12. Scott Downs
27. 13. Carlos Guillen
27. 14. Tom Gorzelany
27. 15. Adam Moore

28. 1. Daniel Hudson
28. 2. Vicente Padilla
28. 3. Jeremy Bonderman
28. 4. Gregg Zaun
28. 5. Brendan Ryan
28. 6. Daniel Murphy
28. 7. Randy Ruiz
28. 8. Nick Hundley
28. 9. Ryan Perry
28. 10. Jon Niese
28. 11. Justin Smoak
28. 12. Kenshin Kawakami
28. 13. Aaron Rowand
28. 14. Ben Francisco
28. 15. Gerald Laird

29. 1. Jesus Flores
29. 2. Brett Wallace
29. 3. Jason Marquis
29. 4. Desmond Jennings
29. 5. Rod Barajas
29. 6. Kevin Jepsen
29. 7. Jeremy Hellickson
29. 8. C.J. Wilson
29. 9. Freddy Sanchez
29. 10. Jim Thome
29. 11. Anibal Sanchez
29. 12. Phillipe Aumont
29. 13. Fernando Martinez
29. 14. Paul Maholm
29. 15. Joe Mather

30. 1. Starlin Castro
30. 2. Casey Kotchmann
30. 3. Tyler Flowers
30. 4. Rick VandenHurk
30. 5. Dallas Braden
30. 6. Jim Johnson
30. 7. Kyle Kendrick
30. 8. Robinson Tejeda
30. 9. Ryan Garko
30. 10. Felipe Paulino
30. 11. Kaz Matsui
30. 12. Delwyn Young
30. 13. Pat Neshek
30. 14. Marcus Thames
30. 15. Will Venable

Best Values: Chris Volstad hit his adjustment period last year, but if he can induce ground balls and limit walks, he could have a good year again. He'll play some poor teams over the course of the year, and should have some value. Mike Aviles was hurt last year, and with some rehab time behind him, how hard could it be to unseat the worst starter in baseball (Yuniesky Betancourt)? He'll get at-bats this year somewhere on the infield.

If Brendan Ryan plays every day and bats in front of Albert Pujols, he'll at least see some fastballs, get on base, and score some runs. Brett Wallace seems ready for the bigs, and can probably hit for a good average right away, but it might take a trade to open up space for him. The final round can be tough place to find value, but Robinson Tejeda has a crazy strikeout rate and if he finds the plate could be pretty devastating.

Questionable Selections: In a fifteen-team two-catcher league, every starting catcher in the majors is going to be owned. But why not get a catcher with some upside like Adam Moore in Seattle? That sort of work would keep you from drafting Jesus Flores (currently injured) and Gerald Laird (currently terrible) as your starting catchers. Yes, one team did that. Tom Gorzellanny shouldn't get too comfortable starting for the Cubs, as Ted Lilly is due back mid-April. Dallas Braden wasn't much of a pitcher and now is hurting as well, why not pick a guy like Jonathon Niese who's shown more and is in the easier league? Delwyn Young is looking like a backup second baseman with little power, which is about as exciting as it sounds.

 

[HacheMan]

A Penny For My Thoughts
Opening Night is just three short days away, so with that very exciting factoid in mind, I'm happy to welcome you to the very first edition of Waiver Wired for the 2010 season. I'll be your humble host each and every Thursday, doing my best to pass along some players to consider on your league's waiver wire.

With this column, you can expect wall-to-wall coverage of mixed leagues, as well as AL-only and NL-only leagues. As Opening Day rosters continue to shake out around major league baseball, this week's edition will function as a mere dress rehearsal for the madness of next week, when nearly everyone will try to find (or avoid) this year's Emilio Bonifacio.

Here's just a few names to get you started on the right path to fantasy success:

MIXED LEAGUES

Kyle Blanks OF, Padres (Yahoo: 30 percent owned, ESPN: 42.1 percent)

Let's get the big boy out of the way first. This 6-foot-6 monster hasn't been picked inside the top 250 in recent mock drafts (Current ADP: 286.69), but I'm confident that his production will more than exceed his current ADP. The 23-year-old batted .250/.355/.514 with 10 homers, 22 RBI and an 868 OPS in just 148 at-bats last season, with a minor league track record that hints at real breakout potential for 2010. Keep in mind that the Rotoworld Draft Guide isn't as bullish on him, but I'll go out on a limb on account of the fact that he'll be hitting after Adrian Gonzalez, at least until the trade deadline, anyway. His contact rate might be a problem, suppressing his batting average in the process, but not even PETCO can hold this kind of thump. I'm not ruling out 25 homers and eligibility at both first base and the outfield by season's end.

Franklin Morales RP, Rockies (Yahoo: 19 percent owned, ESPN: 8.5 percent)

So you walked away from your draft jonesin' for some extra saves, right? Well, here's your opportunity. For some reason, Morales is still available in over 80 percent of Yahoo! leagues and over 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues despite the fact that he is now the obvious choice for ninth-inning duties in Colorado. Morales should have already been owned in all formats, but with Wednesday's news that Street suffered a setback in his throwing program, he's officially a no-brainer. The 24-year-old southpaw isn't bulletproof -- averaging 4.6 BB/9 over his brief career should be enough to tell you why -- but he possesses a dominating fastball that racks up plenty of swings and misses. Run, don't walk, to put in your claim.

Travis Snider OF, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 12.8 percent)

The 22-year-old Snider was a popular sleeper pick in drafts last spring, as well. Unfortunately, after the young slugger batted just .242 with three homers and 25 strikeouts over his first 99 at-bats, the Jays decided to demote him in May in order to save a little cash in the long run. He returned in August to bat .239 with six homers and 17 RBI the rest of the way, but was largely a non-factor in mixed leagues. The story figures to be very different this season. Nobody in their right mind expects the Jays to be a contender this year, so barring an utter disaster, he should be given a fair chance to play everyday, for better or worse. There's still plenty of holes in his swing, and he hasn't yet proved competent against left-handers, but the power is for real. He's another cheap source for 25 homers.

Brad Penny SP, Cardinals (Yahoo: 10 percent owned, ESPN: 10.1 percent)

Like most of you, I'm currently wondering what Penny can accomplish under the tutelage of his new pitching coach Dave Duncan. Penny looked like a new man after escaping the nightmare that was Boston last season, finishing 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA over his final six starts with the Giants. You won't pick Penny up for strikeouts, but he's always had pretty solid command (2.9 BB/9) and induces oodles of groundballs. Sounds like the perfect project for ol' Dunc. The health of his shoulder is a concern for me, but should he stay healthy, there's no reason why he can't post an ERA under 4.00 along with a WHIP around his career average (1.34) and a dozen wins. And that's a rather cautious projection.

Jeff Clement 1B, Pirates (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 0.9 percent)

I'll admit, this is a pretty sneaky one. Clement is expected to start the season at first base in Pittsburgh, yet he remains catcher-eligible in many leagues. Don't be shy to take advantage of this little quirk. Granted, the 26-year-old has a lousy .237/.309/.393 slash line over his first 219 major league at-bats, however he has shown real pop and a more-than-adequate approach in the minor leagues. Not convinced? The Rotoworld Draft Guide is projecting him to hit .260/.342/.468 with 19 home runs and 53 RBI. That's not much to write home about for a first baseman, but for a catcher? It's a potential waiver heist. Let's just hope he can make an adequate transition to first base.

Shaun Marcum SP, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 22 percent owned, ESPN: 10.2 percent)

This is one case where I can understand at least some initial restraint by fantasy owners. Marcum didn't throw a pitch in the major leagues last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, but after the trade of Roy Halladay, he'll be the Opening Day starter for the Jays. Yes, he's the team's "ace by default" right now, but remember that Marcum is just two seasons removed from compiling a 3.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 25 starts. The 28-year-old right-hander was showing real growth across the board before his surgery, most notably with his strikeout and groundball rates. If he can recapture that form, he'll be mixed-league worthy once again, even with an awful team around him.

AL-ONLY

Felix Pie OF, Orioles (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.4 percent)

Earlier this week, Orioles manager Dave Trembley announced that Pie would be his Opening Day left fielder instead of Nolan Reimold. It's important to note that Trembley made this decision in order to keep Reimold and his surgically-repaired Achilles off the turf at Tropicana Field, but it also suggests that there could be a timeshare to begin the season. Pie, 25, finished with a flourish last season (.290 with seven home runs and 21 RBI in 145 at-bats after the All-Star break) and is batting .355 (11-for-31) with two home runs, four RBI, two stolen bases and six runs scored this spring. There's no question that Reimold is the more potent bat, but Pie stands as the better bargain right now.

Jesse Crain RP, Twins (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

With Joe Nathan slated to miss the entire season after Tommy John surgery, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire announced plans this week to implement a "closer-by-committee." Jon Rauch has already been gobbled up in most leagues, as he should, but Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier and Crain will probably have a say before the season's out. In truth, the 28-year-old Crain is probably the closest thing the Twins currently have to a dominant closer-type. He averaged nearly 95 mph on his heater while whiffing 7.49 K/9 last season. Only problem is, he also averaged 4.70 BB/9 as he continues to trend in the wrong direction after shoulder surgery in 2007. I don't have the slightest idea how the ninth-inning situation will pan out in Minnesota, but there are plenty of slices of this hypothetical pie to go around. Might as well go with the one who can miss some bats.

Chris Getz 2B, Royals (Yahoo: 2 percent, ESPN: 0.6 percent)

I first mentioned Getz in a column a couple weeks back, yet he remains a tremendous bargain, even in many AL-only leagues. Fortunately for you, his rather modest .261/.324/.347 batting line from last season masks the fact that he was fourth among qualifying second baseman with 25 stolen bases in 27 attempts. Alberto Callaspo is expected to get most of the playing time at third base while Alex Gordon is sidelined with a broken thumb, so you should feel pretty secure inserting Getz in your lineup. If his plate discipline from the minor leagues can translate to the majors during his second full season, there's potential for 30 steals here.


NL-ONLY

Charlie Morton SP, Pirates (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

Some may call Morton an unlikely choice for a sleeper, but it can be argued that he has the highest ceiling of any current pitcher on the Pirates' staff. Morton, who was acquired from the Braves in the Nate McLouth trade last June, possesses a plus-curve and a sinking fastball which has induced grounders at a rate of 49.5 percent over his first two seasons in the majors. It's easy to dismiss his 4.55 ERA from last season, but take away one outing against the Cubs last August where he allowed 10 runs and he would have finished with a 3.66 ERA. How about that for some perspective? Morton isn't going to strike a ton of guys out, nor does he have precise command, but with a pretty good defense behind him, he could be a bargain.

Danys Baez RP, Phillies (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.3 percent)

Ryan Madson is the overwhelming favorite for saves as Brad Lidge begins the season the disabled list. And it's hard to argue that he doesn't deserve the assignment, as Madson is clearly one of the best relievers in the game. But at the same time, remember that he blew six saves and compiled a 5.82 ERA in save situations last season. I'd like to think that these elite skills as a set-up man can easily transition to ninth-inning duty, but sometimes that isn't the case. That's where Baez comes in. The 32-year-old right-hander posted a 4.02 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings with the Orioles last season, his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Keep in mind that Baez hasn't saved more than 10 games since 2005, so I'm hardly endorsing him as an elite option, but he's worth the investment if he can vulture a few saves from either Madson or Lidge.

Jim Edmonds OF, Brewers (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.7 percent)

When Edmonds initially raised the idea of a comeback in January, some dismissed it as a joke, however the 39-year-old has quickly moved up the depth chart with the Brewers. He has impressed so much that manager Ken Macha is considering using the left-handed hitting Edmonds over the right-handed hitting Corey Hart against Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies on Opening Day. Edmonds has tattooed righties to a .964 OPS during his career, including an .883 mark when he last played in 2008. Who knows how long his body can hold up -- or how long he can hold off Jody Gerut -- but this sounds like an obvious platoon situation to me.

 

[HacheMan]

Start Your Engines!

Greetings, folks! We're just a few short days away from the commencement of the 2010 regular season, which means it's time for our first edition of The Week Ahead. For those who aren't familiar, The Week Ahead appears every Friday afternoon here in Rotoworld's baseball section and provides useful information to help you set your fantasy roster for the upcoming week.

Features include "Going Twice," a listing of starting pitchers scheduled to make two starts; "Streamer City," a handful of starting pitchers generally owned in less than 50 percent of fantasy leagues who have favorable match-ups in the upcoming week; "Total Games" and "Lefty/Righty Breakdowns," which lay out each team's match-ups for the week; and "The Infirmary," a list of players with recently updated injury statuses. If there are other topics you'd like to see covered each week, feel free to shoot me an email at nels2807@gmail.com.

For now, let's get underway with a preview of the first week. Since the majority of two-time starters also happen to be the Opening Day starters for their respective clubs, there are a lot of strong plays. Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines!

Going Twice...



American League

Strong Plays

Kevin Millwood: @TB (Shields), TOR (Marcum)
Mark Buehrle: CLE (Westbrook), MIN (Slowey)
Justin Verlander: @KC (Greinke), CLE (Westbrook)
Zack Greinke: @DET (Verlander), BOS (Buchholz)
Jered Weaver: MIN (Baker), OAK (Sheets)
Scott Baker: @LAA (Weaver), @CWS (Garcia)
A.J. Burnett @BOS (Lester), @TB (Shields)
Felix Hernandez: @OAK (Sheets), @TEX (Harrison)
James Shields: BAL (Millwood), NYY (Burnett)
Scott Feldman: TOR (Marcum), SEA (Rowland-Smith)

Decent Plays

Jake Westbrook: @CWS (Buehrle), @DET (Verlander)
Joe Saunders: MIN (Slowey), OAK (Anderson)
Kevin Slowey: @LAA (Saunders), @CWS (Buehrle)
Ben Sheets: SEA (Hernandez), @LAA (Weaver)
Brett Anderson: SEA (Rowland-Smith), @LAA (Saunders)
Ryan Rowland-Smith: @OAK (Anderson), @TEX (Feldman)
Shaun Marcum: @TEX (Feldman), @BAL (Millwood)

National League

Strong Plays

Dan Haren: SD (Garland), PIT (Duke)
Aaron Harang: STL (Carpenter), CHC (Zambrano)
Ubaldo Jimenez: @MIL (Gallardo), SD (Garland)
Josh Johnson: @NYM (Santana), LAD (Padilla)
Yovani Gallardo: COL (Jimenez), STL (Carpenter)
Johan Santana: FLA (Johnson), WAS (Marquis)
Roy Halladay: @WAS (Marquis), @HOU (Oswalt)
Tim Lincecum: @HOU (Oswalt), ATL (Hudson)
Chris Carpenter: @CIN (Harang), @MIL (Gallardo)

Decent Plays

Tim Hudson: CHC (Zambrano), @SF (Lincecum)
Carlos Zambrano: @ATL (Hudson), @CIN (Harang)
Roy Oswalt: SF (Lincecum), PHI (Halladay)
Vicente Padilla: @PIT (Duke), @FLA (Johnson)
Zach Duke: LAD (Padilla), @ARI (Haren)
Jon Garland: @ARI (Haren), @COL (Jimenez)
Jason Marquis: PHI (Halladay), @NYM (Santana)


Streamer City



The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Wednesday, 4/7: Fausto Carmona @ CWS
Carmona struggled mightily last year, but his stock is on the rise after a strong spring in which he issued only two walks in 26 innings. Worth checking if he can carry the improved control into his first regular-season turn.

Friday, 4/9: Ervin Santana vs. OAK
Despite coming off a disappointing season, Santana still has the stuff to dominate and gets a favorable first match-up at home against the A's.

Friday, 4/9: Tim Wakefield @ KC
Wakefield will likely appear frequently in this section over the course of the season, as he's a generally available guy who you can count on in favorable match-ups. His first start against the Royals qualifies.

National League

Wednesday, 4/7: Aaron Cook @ MIL
I've always felt that Cook is one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League. He won't rack up a lot of strikeouts but he'll have the Brewers smacking balls into the ground all day.

Friday, 4/9: Homer Bailey @ CHC
Many are hoping that Bailey can piece together a breakout season in 2010, and his strong spring performance has helped feed enthusiasm. He'll face off against Carlos Silva in his season debut, so a W seems likely.

Friday, 4/9: Mike Pelfrey vs. WAS
A bit of a stretch, perhaps, given that Pelfrey was roughed up badly during spring training and struggled throughout the 2010 season. Still, he's at home against the Nationals and I just felt like giving the Mets some love.

<!--RW-->


Total Games



American League

5: BOS, NYY
6: BAL, CWS, CLE, DET, KC, TB, TEX, TOR
7: LAA, MIN, OAK, SEA

National League

6: ARI, ATL, CHC, COL, FLA, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, STL, WAS


Lefty/Righty Breakdown



American League

BAL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
BOS: 4 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CWS: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CLE: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
DET: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
KC: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
LAA: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
MIN: 3 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
NYY: 4 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
OAK: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SEA: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
TB: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TEX: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
TOR: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP

National League

ARI: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
ATL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CHC: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CIN: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
COL: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
FLA: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
HOU: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
LAD: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
MIL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
NYM: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
PHI: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
PIT: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SD: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SF: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
STL: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
WAS: 2 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP

 

[HacheMan]

Opening Dose
Hello and welcome to seven straight months of baseball. If that sentence doesn't make you giddy ... well, then you're probably in the wrong place, because every weekday from now until October the "Daily Dose" is where you can find the latest news and analysis about injuries, lineup changes, transactions, notable performances, and everything else that goes on in the 162-game marathon that is baseball season.

My name is Aaron Gleeman and I'll be your host. In addition to writing this column every morning you can also find me on Twitter and blogging throughout every day at Hardball Talk on NBCSports.com, but there will be plenty of time for us to get to know each other later. Right now, there's a full slate of games to watch and a remote control to wear out, so let's get right to the good stuff.

While the Red Sox and Yankees give us a pretty decent Game 1 of 2,430, here are some news and notes from around baseball ...

* As expected, the Rockies placed Huston Street on the disabled list Sunday with a sore shoulder. Street already experienced a setback with the injury during spring training, so while he's expected to return fairly soon Franklin Morales should have quite a few save chances in the meantime and needs to be owned in all leagues. If he throws strikes, he can dominate.

* By designating Jack Cust for assignment the A's are essentially betting that no team will claim his $2.65 million salary on waivers, in which case they can stash him at Triple-A (unlike Jake Fox, who's out of minor-league options) and basically use a 26-man roster for a while. Cust would help a few teams at that price--including the punchless A's, of course--but fitting him into the lineup and budget at this late date could be tough.

* By jettisoning Cust (for now, at least) the A's are suddenly counting on Eric Chavez to play regularly again, albeit at designated hitter. Chavez seems unlikely to stay healthy even at DH and regardless of that hasn't produced DH-caliber offense since 2005 or 2006. Chavez is worth a flier in AL-only leagues, but don't feel obligated to stay with him if/when things go south.

* Fox not only made the Opening Day roster in Oakland, he'll serve as Kurt Suzuki's backup after the A's chose not to keep a true second catcher. Fox caught full time early in his minor-league career, but hasn't played the position regularly since 2006 and started just twice behind the plate last season between Triple-A and the Cubs. He has plenty of offensive upside, but doesn't seem likely to play a whole lot early on.

* Mike Leake was the eighth pick in June's draft after starring at Arizona State and now he's leap-frogging the minors altogether so the Reds can rush him into their rotation at age 22. Leake is often praised for his command and polish, but handing a young arm to Dusty Baker is always risky and a couple months at Triple-A would have been better for everyone involved. Long term, he projects more as a solid mid-rotation guy than an ace.

* Alex Gordon will begin the season on the disabled list and may not be ready to return from a broken thumb until late April or early May, leaving Alberto Callaspo to play every day at third base. Callaspo hit .300/.356/.457 in 155 games last year to rank second on the team in OPS, yet it took Gordon's injury for the Royals' braintrust to avoid benching him after handing second base to Chris Getz.

* Mike Aviles will also be part of the Royals' infield mix after securing an Opening Day spot by going 24-for-51 (.471) this spring. Aviles came out of nowhere to bat .325 in 102 games as a 27-year-old rookie in 2008, but then hit .183 in 36 games before undergoing Tommy John surgery last season. If healthy Aviles could (or at least should) push the execrable Yuniesky Betancourt for starts at shortstop, but keep expectations modest.

* John Bowker beat out Nate Schierholtz for the Giants' right field job, which gives the 26-year-old one more chance to show that his strong minor-league numbers are no fluke. Bowker has hit just .244/.291/.402 through 142 games in San Francisco, but batted .322/.424/.546 with 23 homers in 129 games at Triple-A and .307/.363/.523 with 22 homers in 139 games at Double-A. He's definitely worth a flier in NL-only leagues.

* Ron Washington announced that Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden will split time behind the plate initially, combining for what has to be the most letters ever for a catching platoon. Saltalamacchia is a question mark because of a unique condition that gave him rib, shoulder, and neck problems, so easing him back into the lineup isn't a bad idea. However, ultimately if both guys are healthy he should claim most of the starts.

* Injuries and poor performances have pushed Travis Buck off the radar since hitting .288/.377/.474 in 82 games as a rookie in 2007, but thanks to a strong spring training and Coco Crisp's fractured finger he'll be the Opening Day right fielder for the A's. Buck is certainly capable of being a lot better than he's looked over the past two seasons, but lacks the power or speed to make a major fantasy impact even if things go well.

* Andres Blanco is slated to start at second base for the Rangers while Ian Kinsler is out with a sprained ankle, but don't expect fantasy value from the 26-year-old journeyman. Blanco has hit .252/.295/.324 in the majors after batting .264/.319/.352 in 317 games at Triple-A. He's a utility man, at best. Kinsler is hoping to return within a couple weeks, but high-ankle sprains can be tricky.

 

[HacheMan]

Everyone, Meet Mr. Heyward
In a moment the baseball gods couldn't have scripted much better, 20-year-old stud prospect Jason Heyward made his big-league debut Monday afternoon and blasted a three-run homer 450 feet off Carlos Zambrano in his first at-bat. The crowd in Atlanta chanted Heyward's name before he stepped into the batter's box and the post-homer scene can probably be described best as pandemonium.

Zambrano went on to completely unravel, allowing eight runs without making it out of the second inning, but few people will remember any of that when watching the first clip of Heyward's career highlight video 25 years from now in Cooperstown. OK, so that's admittedly a bit over the top, but Heyward is truly a special prospect and I'll be shocked if he ends up being anything less than a multi-time All-Star.

While the Jason Heyward Era gets off to a memorable start, here are some other notes from around baseball ...

* In addition to Heyward announcing his arrival as a future star, some established stars did their usual thing on Opening Day. Albert Pujols went 4-for-5 with a pair of homers against the Reds. Tim Lincecum tossed seven shutout innings against the Astros. And just like last season Zack Greinke saw a Quality Start wasted when the Royals' bullpen blew a two-run lead (Cy Young runner-up Felix Hernandez had a similar fate in Oakland).

* Ben Sheets, Shaun Marcum, and Jake Westbrook each drew Opening Day starts after missing 2009 following elbow surgery. Westbrook struggled to throw strikes in Chicago and Sheets was merely OK versus Seattle, but Marcum took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Texas. He eventually gave up a three-run homer to Nelson Cruz and had his win vanish when Jason Frasor blew a save, but it was a very encouraging outing.

* Rotoworld's award-winning Season Pass product offers subscriber-only columns, daily waiver wire and starting pitcher advice, extensive prospect coverage, detailed bullpen and rotation databases, frequently updated projections and rankings, and much, much more. If you're not satisfied simply putting your teams on cruise control after draft day, Season Pass can help you make the most of this season.

* Milwaukee's lineup included a couple surprises, with Carlos Gomez in the second spot despite a .292 career on-base percentage and 39-year-old Jim Edmonds starting over Corey Hart after sitting out 2009. Gomez grounded into a rare double play before four straight hits, notching a homer and a steal in the same game for just the second time. Edmonds went 1-for-4 with a walk and will likely start often over Hart versus righties.

* Clearly distraught about being included on my "players to avoid" list, Garrett Jones homered in his first two at-bats against Vicente Padilla. Jones has always had plenty of power and has now gone deep 25 times in 395 career at-bats, but his lengthy, mediocre minor-league track record still has me convinced that his batting average and overall production will come crashing back down to earth soon enough.

* If you're not sick of me yet, you can also find me on Twitter and blogging throughout each day at Hardball Talk on NBCSports.com.

AL Quick Hits: Josh Beckett and the Red Sox finalized a four-year, $68 million contract extension that keeps him in Boston through 2014 ... Mark Buehrle shut out the Indians for seven innings Monday and also made one of the best defensive plays you'll ever see from a pitcher ... Scott Kazmir (shoulder) was "very surprised" by the Angels putting him on the disabled list to begin the season ... After saying last week that he'd refuse any assignment to the minors, Hank Blalock changed his mind and will report to Triple-A for the Rays ... Ron Washington confirmed that Neftali Feliz will serve as the Rangers' primary setup man ... Willie Bloomquist started at third base in the Royals' opener, but Alberto Callaspo (oblique) is hoping to return Tuesday ... Kevin Kouzmanoff went 0-for-4, grounded into two double plays, and committed an error in his A's debut ... Casey Kotchman opened the season batting third for the Mariners, behind Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins, and drove in four runs.

NL Quick Hits: Jose Reyes (thyroid) singled and stole two bases in an extended spring training game Monday ... Roy Halladay had an excellent Phillies debut, allowing one run in seven innings ... Colby Rasmus homered Monday and also robbed Scott Rolen of a potential homer with a leaping grab in center field ... Drew Stubbs was on the bench Monday in favor of Chris Dickerson and Laynce Nix ... Cameron Maybin was a mess Monday, going 0-for-4 with three swinging strikeouts and several poor plays in center field ... Jeff Suppan (neck) is aiming to return from the disabled list when eligible Saturday ... After struggling down the stretch with a wrist injury last season, Mark DeRosa homered in his Giants debut ... Johan Santana out-dueled Josh Johnson, allowing one run in six innings Monday ... Not only did Yadier Molina (oblique) start Monday, his grand slam broke the game open late ... Mike Jacobs went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts Monday while inexplicably batting cleanup for the Mets.

 

[HacheMan]

Closing Time

Welcome back to another season of "Saves and Steals," your one-stop destination for analysis of two of fantasy baseball's more capricious statistics.

Every Tuesday we will slot closers into five tiers. This should give you an idea of value fluctuation, stoppers you should target and those you should look to sell. At the end of each column we will comb through the league to see where you can find stolen bases at a reasonable price. On the waiver wire, with any luck.

Questions, comments and suggestions can be directed to my mailbox: thor.nystrom@gmail.com. Questions with broad fantasy relevance could be used in future editions of the column.

In this introductory installment, your babblative correspondent will sing "Candle in the Wind" while contemplating Joe Nathan's lost season, take unnecessary shots at Bobby Jenks during an otherwise innocuous discussion of his potential regression and wonder just how long Jason Frasor's leash will be in Toronto.

This week's tiers are brought to you by the best and worst free agent signings of the offseason.


Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Adrian Beltre, one-year, $10 million by Boston" Tier.)


Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

Comment:
The elite group waves a somber goodbye to longtime member Joe Nathan, out for the season after undergoing successful Tommy John Surgery. Rivera, Papelbon and Broxton, at least to start the season, are head and shoulders above their closing contemporaries.


Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Orlando Hudson, one-year, $5 million by Minnesota" Tier.)


Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics

Comment:
Oakland may be atrocious this year, but Bailey is a bright spot. The 25-year-old is active to start the season after briefly scaring the team's fan base by limping off the field on Saturday. It was later revealed that he jammed his surgically-repaired knee. It isn't considered serious and shouldn't hinder his performance.


Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Placido Polanco, three-years, $18 million by Philadelphia" Tier.)


David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels
Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay Rays
Billy Wagner, Atlanta Braves
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks

Comment:
This group has plenty of upside. Valverde, Soriano and Wagner, veterans on new teams, could quickly jump a tier with a quick start. Ditto for Marmol.


Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Jason Marquis, two-years, $15 million by Washington" Tier.)


Jon Rauch, Minnesota Twins
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox
Frank Francisco, Texas Rangers
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Mike Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles
Matt Capps, Washington Nationals

Comment:
Ron Gardenhire did all fantasy owners a solid when he backed off his "closer-by-committee" rhetoric and handed the job to Rauch. The monstrous right-hander is a solid fantasy value with 30-plus save potential on the contending Twins.

On the spectrum's other side, we have Bobby Jenks, whose bust potential may be in equal proportion to his bust size. Chicago's portly closer saw a decrease in productivity in 2009 and a sharper regression could be in line this season. A winter spent bickering with management about conditioning is almost as alarming as his plunging strikeout rates and Chicago probably would have dealt him by this point if they had found an interested party. If injury, trade or ineffectiveness forced a change, Matt Thornton would be a high-ceiling pickup.

Kerry Wood will be out of commission for at least the next month-and-a-half, making Chris Perez a nice-looking sleeper. Do you expect Cleveland to yank Perez for Wood, at any point, if the youngster flourishes in the ninth inning role? Neither do I.


Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Brandon Lyon, three-years, $15 million by Houston" Tier.)


Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies
Jason Frasor, Toronto Blue Jay
Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh Pirates
Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Matt Lindstrom, Houston Astros

Comment:
The heat may turn up on Jason Frasor earlier than expected. He blew Monday's opener against Texas -- allowing four hits, a walk and two runs in 1/3 inning -- and didn't have a vice grip on the closer's job, anyway. Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs lurk.

Lindstrom beat out Brandon Lyon for the closer's role, but Lindstrom's leash will be extremely short.

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Injured

Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (Out for the season with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow)
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies (15-day disabled list with shoulder stiffness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (15-day disabled list due to knee and elbow surgeries)
Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians (15-day disabled list with a strained right latissimus dorsi muscle)

Comment:
No Rockie fan ever wants to see the names "Huston Street" and "Dr. James Andrews" together in a sentence, but, in Monday's case, it spawned a positive report. Don't rejoice yet, Street owners; there's still no timetable for his return. Stay tuned.

Lidge's move was made retroactive to March 26, so he's eligible to return as soon as this weekend. That's not going to happen, but he could return to closing duties by the end of the month. Regardless of whether or not this is the preference of Philly fans.

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The Steals Department

Here's the good news: Steals haven't been this easy to find in fantasy for quite some time. Major League players swiped 2,970 bases in 2009, the highest total since 2001.

Here's the bad news: There are fewer elite base stealing options, with only seven players last season stealing even 35 bases.

Actually, I see this as only good news. Obviously, the game has changed aesthetically since steroids were weeded from it. But from a fantasy perspective, it's no longer imperative to reach for mediocre speed-only players such as the immortal Willy Taveras to boost you to the top of the stolen base category. Now, it can be done with a collection of players able to help you in a variety of categories while chipping in speed. Nine players last season had at least a 20/20 season and seven more who had 20-plus stolen bases had between 14-19 homers. Heck, Mark Reynolds swiped 24 bases.

In addition, cheap steals have never been easier to find. Scott Podsednik (30 stolen bases in 2009), Juan Pierre (30), Rajai Davis (41) and Nyjer Morgan (42) were all readily available in just about every mixed league at some point last season.

If you want to go deeper, Chris Getz, Willie Bloomquist, Brett Gardner, Everth Cabrera and Josh Anderson all had at least 25 steals in 2009.

The point here isn't to talk draft strategy -- we'll assume your drafting is done for the season -- but to point out a trend that could give you an edge in your league. If an early season intervention with your roster reveals a need for speed, all is not lost. Someone was in your shoes last season and made up major ground by nabbing Morgan and Davis off waivers. Any AL-only owner worth his salt probably picked up Bloomquist or Anderson at some point last season.

Scout speed this season and recognize trends to make sure you become that owner

 

[HacheMan]

Reyes Ready to Return?
Jose Reyes went 1-for-3 with two steals in an extended spring training game Monday and followed that up by going 2-for-5 with two walks in another extended spring game Tuesday night. Perhaps just as importantly, Reyes played all nine innings at shortstop, possibly signaling that he could be cleared to return from his thyroid disorder when eligible to come off the disabled list this weekend.

He hasn't played a regular season game since May 20 and coming back from hamstring surgery made him a question mark even before the thyroid situation surfaced. No one seems quite sure what type of impact the thyroid condition could have once he returns and the hamstring problems could mean fewer steal attempts, but I still wouldn't be surprised if Reyes ends up as a top-three fantasy shortstop. He's still just 27 years old.

While the Mets hope to put Alex Cora back on the bench soon, here are some other notes from around baseball ...

* After a visit with Dr. James Andrews and an MRI exam the news on Huston Street's right shoulder is relatively positive. No structural damage was found, but he's been diagnosed with inflammation and will need to do additional strengthening exercises before throwing again. There's no timetable for Street's return and he's already had setbacks, so Franklin Morales should have closer value for at least the rest of April.

* If there was no such thing as a "save" the Twins probably would've left Matt Guerrier in to pitch the ninth inning Tuesday after he breezed through a 1-2-3 eighth inning on 11 pitches, but instead they brought in new closer Jon Rauch. And just like most quality relievers will do about 90 percent of the time, he was able to protect a two-run lead for one inning versus the bottom of the Angels' lineup. So far so good replacing Joe Nathan.

* Rotoworld's award-winning Season Pass product has subscriber-only columns, daily waiver wire and starting pitcher advice, extensive prospect coverage, detailed bullpen and rotation databases, frequently updated projections and rankings, and much, much more. If you're not satisfied simply putting your teams on cruise control after draft day, Season Pass can help you make the most of this season.

* Out since breaking his thumb early in spring training, Alex Gordon is scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Thursday at Single-A. He's eligible to come off the disabled list Saturday, but will need a little more time than that. Willie Bloomquist started in Gordon's place on Opening Day, but thankfully for Royals fans' remaining sanity Alberto Callaspo will be the primary fill-in once his own oblique injury clears up.

* If you do just one thing to enable someone's addiction today, make it following me on Twitter.

AL Quick Hits: A.J. Burnett struggled Tuesday night against the Red Sox, so expect more rumblings about his compatibility with Jorge Posada ... Gil Meche (shoulder) tossed five shutout innings in a minor-league game Tuesday and could be cleared to face the Red Sox this weekend ... Mike Gonzalez blew a win for Kevin Millwood when Carl Crawford delivered a walk-off single Tuesday ... With left-hander Jon Lester on the mound, the Yankees benched Brett Gardner for Marcus Thames and moved Curtis Granderson to the ninth spot Tuesday ... Ken Griffey Jr. also sat against a left-hander Tuesday, with Eric Byrnes replacing him in the lineup and Milton Bradley moving to designated hitter ... James Shields served up three solo homers in a no-decision Tuesday and faces the Yankees next ... Jeff Mathis started Tuesday over Mike Napoli for the second straight game ... Dioner Navarro started over Kelly Shoppach in the Rays' opener Tuesday.

NL Quick Hits: Lance Berkman received a cortisone shot and had his surgically repaired knee drained, but there's no timetable yet for his return ... Corey Hart rejoined the Brewers' lineup Tuesday after sitting in favor of Jim Edmonds on Opening Day ... Ian Stewart missed the cycle by a single Tuesday and is sporting a nifty 2.357 OPS through two games ... Barry Zito shut out the Astros for six innings Tuesday, winning his season debut for the first time since 2003 ... Jeff Supppan (neck) is hoping to rejoin the Brewers' rotation after making one minor-league rehab start later this week ... Aroldis Chapman will make his pro debut Sunday at Triple-A ... Jeff Francis (armpit) played catch Tuesday and is aiming for a rehab assignment next week ... Chris Young looked like his old self Tuesday with six one-hit innings against his namesake in Arizona ... Fred Lewis (ribs) is slated to begin a rehab stint Thursday at Triple-A and soon the Giants will have a decision to make on the out-of-options outfielder.