MLB Fantasy News 2010

[HacheMan]

2010 sleeper watch: Ian Stewart


Even before spring training has begun, the search is on for the coming season's crop of fantasy sleepers. On his new Base Heads blog, Paul Bourdett is asking a number of experts who they'll be watching this season. There's one from KFFL.com's Tim Heaney and also this contribution from me:

My sleeper search usually starts with someone who can combine untapped talent with an expected increase in playing time. Colorado's Ian Stewart is a good example.
He hit 25 homers and drove in 70 runs last season while dividing his time between second base (21 games) and third base (121). He figures to be the Rockies' starting third baseman, but the eligibility at second is the key -- especially in NL-only leagues where the talent pool is extremely shallow.
Stewart hit just .228 last season, but part of that can be explained by his below-average .275 BABIP. With normal luck on balls in play, Stewart could be this season's version of Mark Reynolds.
<TABLE style="HEIGHT: 58px" border=1 width=420 align=center><TBODY><TR><TD>Player</TD><TD>AGE</TD><TD>AB</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>RBI</TD><TD>CT%</TD><TD>AVG</TD><TD>SLUG</TD><TD>OPS</TD></TR><TR><TD>Reynolds '08</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>539</TD><TD>129</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>97</TD><TD>62%</TD><TD>.239</TD><TD>.458</TD><TD>.779</TD></TR><TR><TD>Stewart '09</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>425</TD><TD>97</TD><TD>74</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>68%</TD><TD>.228</TD><TD>.464</TD><TD>.785</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The power is there and although he's also prone to striking out, he and Reynolds are both relatively patient at the plate (12% walk rates). The key to Reynolds' monster fantasy season was a jump in stolen bases from 11 in 2008 to 24. Stewart stole just seven bases a year ago ... but he did have a pair of double-digit steal seasons in the minors

 

[HacheMan]

Rangers' Kinsler leads deep crop of AL second basemen

Unlike the National League, where there's little depth at second base, the American League is full of solid fantasy options.

At the top is Ian Kinsler of the Rangers, the only player in the majors with at least 30 homers and 30 stolen bases last season. But along with those numbers, he could only manage a .253 average. In Kinsler's case, though, average doesn't tell the whole story.

Kinsler's average on balls in play last season was a ridiculously low .245 -- the absolute worst in the entire major leagues. (Carlos Pena and Jimmy Rollins were next at .253). With just a normal amount of luck, Kinsler would have collected 26 more hits and hit a very respectable .299. Look for a rebound in 2010.
The Yankees' Robinson Cano has become a dependable hitter who learned to take advantage of Yankee Stadium's favorable dimensions with career-high 25 home runs. The good news for Cano is that the short porch didn't affect his ability to hit for average; he finished sixth in the league at .320.
Outside of a drop in his batting average (from .326 to .296), Dustin Pedroia's 2009 season wasn't that much different from his MVP campaign in '08.His home run, runs scored and stolen base totals from the two years were almost identical. He led the AL in runs for the second straight time with 115.
Toronto's Aaron Hill led all second basemen with 36 homers, but that figure will be difficult to repeat. The reason: Hill had an abnormally high 17% of his fly balls go for home runs last season. For most players, that figure is around 10%. So while Hill has secured full-time at-bats and is a solid contact hitter, don't expect another 30-homer season.
Brian Roberts was a doubles machine, leading the majors with 56 to go along with his 30 stolen bases. Although he is slightly older than his AL peers at age 32, he doesn't show any signs of slowing down.
Ben Zobrist of the Rays may be an even bigger surprise. His breakout "season" actually began in the second half of 2008 when he filled in nicely as a super-utility guy and responded with some surprising power numbers. Zobrist is now the Rays' everyday second baseman. It's hard to argue with the move, but fantasy owners now won't be able to use him at shortstop or third base anymore -- though he still qualifies in the outfield.
<TABLE border=1 width=250 align=center><TBODY><TR><TD>1</TD><TD>Ian Kinsler</TD><TD>Tex</TD></TR><TR><TD>2</TD><TD>Robinson Cano</TD><TD>NYY</TD></TR><TR><TD>3</TD><TD>Dustin Pedroia</TD><TD>Bos</TD></TR><TR><TD>4</TD><TD>Aaron Hill</TD><TD>Tor</TD></TR><TR><TD>5</TD><TD>Brian Roberts</TD><TD>Bal</TD></TR><TR><TD>6</TD><TD>Ben Zobrist</TD><TD>TB</TD></TR><TR><TD>7</TD><TD>Asdrubal Cabrera</TD><TD>Cle</TD></TR><TR><TD>8</TD><TD>Jose Lopez</TD><TD>Sea</TD></TR><TR><TD>9</TD><TD>Howie Kendrick</TD><TD>LAA</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>Maicer Izturis</TD><TD>LAA</TD></TR><TR><TD>11</TD><TD>Alberto Callaspo</TD><TD>KC</TD></TR><TR><TD>12</TD><TD>Mark Ellis</TD><TD>Oak</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[HacheMan]

O-Dog finds a new home in Minnesota


Free agent Orlando Hudson will make a deep second base pool in the American League even deeper after agreeing to a one-year deal with the Minnesota Twins.
Hudson went from free agent find to rider of the pine over the course of the 2009 season, but he's getting a fresh start in Minnesota, where he'll prevent the Twins from having to play Nick Punto everyday. The switch-hitting Hudson had a .357 on-base percentage last year with the Dodgers, so he could wind up as the No. 2 hitter behind Denard Span and in front of the power bats of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. The upgrade Hudson provides over Punto should help all three of his new teammates at the top of the Twins order.
Hitting second and moving to the American League should also boost the 32-year-old Hudson's value. He's never scored more than 87 runs in a season, but he did have a career-high 35 doubles last year with the Dodgers. Slot him as the 10th best AL second baseman -- between Angels Howie Kendrick and Maicer Izturis.
As for the displaced Punto, he'll end up splitting time at third base with Brendan Harris, but neither of them should be a fantasy factor.

 

[HacheMan]

Verlander, Gregg, and Hudson
Breaking down three of the week's more interesting bits of news from a fantasy point of view ...

Verlander signs five-year, $80 million extension

After letting Felix Hernandez set the market last month with his five-year, $78 million extension with the Mariners, Justin Verlander inked a five-year, $80 million deal with the Tigers this week. Both pitchers would have been eligible for free agency after 2011, so their service time was essentially the same, which makes Verlander getting slightly more money over the same number of seasons interesting.

Hernandez is three years younger than Verlander, finished one spot higher in the Cy Young balloting last season, and has a lower career ERA with more innings. Verlander is definitely an elite starter and the Tigers did well to lock him up at that price, but because Hernandez is both better and younger it seems like Verlander simply benefited from being the second guy to the negotiating table.

Just as Hernandez's long-term fantasy value benefits from calling Safeco Field home, Verlander's stock is bolstered by pitching at Comerica Park through at least 2014. He has a 3.73 ERA at the Tigers' pitcher-friendly ballpark compared to 4.11 ERA on the road. We have Verlander ranked as the No. 8 fantasy starter for 2010, with the Draft Guide projecting him to go 16-9 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 211 strikeouts in 206 innings.

Gregg joins Toronto's closer mix

Kevin Gregg lost the Cubs' closer job to Carlos Marmol down the stretch last season, but made it clear that finding a team willing to let him compete for ninth-inning duties was the driving force behind his decision-making as a free agent. Sure enough rather than take a job setting up Heath Bell in San Diego he agreed to a deal with Toronto, where Gregg has a very good chance to begin the season at closer.

Last week manager Cito Gaston named Jason Frasor and Scott Downs as his potential closers, but neither guy is an ideal ninth-inning option. Gregg certainly isn't either after blowing 20 saves in 104 chances while posting a 3.86 ERA with 107 walks in 221.1 innings over the past three seasons, but in terms of closing experience he has nearly twice as many career saves (85) as Frasor (32) and Downs (16) combined.

If put in Gaston's shoes I'd likely go with Downs at closer most of the time, but also use Frasor or Gregg when multiple dangerous right-handed bats were due up. However, my guess is that Gregg has a leg up on the job heading into spring training mostly because he's done it before. Right now the Draft Guide has all three guys with relatively similar value, but we'll be updating their projections once Gaston's intentions become clearer.

Twins sign Hudson, but still waiting on Mauer

A television report about Joe Mauer and the Twins agreeing to a 10-year extension proved off base, but while nothing is official yet and the length of a potential deal remains unclear it sounds like just about everyone involved expects a contract to be in place by Opening Day. In the meantime the Twins continued their strong offseason by signing Orlando Hudson to a one-year, $5 million contract.

Last season the Twins got an MLB-worst .209 batting average and .569 OPS from their second basemen, so Hudson's career .281/.348/.431 mark represents a huge upgrade. His four straight seasons with an on-base percentage above .350 also make Hudson a good fit in the lineup's No. 2 spot, where he'll have a pair of MVP winners in Mauer and Justin Morneau batting directly behind him.

Hudson's lack of upside at age 32 limits him to being the No. 17 ranked fantasy second baseman in the Draft Guide, but as a near-lock to end up as a top-20 option he makes for a safer pick than some of the younger guys (Scott Sizemore, Rickie Weeks, Martin Prado) just ahead of him. He's an ideal second-tier second baseman in AL-only leagues and a nice late-round target at middle infielder in mixed leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

Put Mariners' Bedard on your 'Forget Me Not' list


So Erik Bedard is returning to the Seattle Mariners. What makes anyone think this season will turn out any better than the last two, when he made all of 15 starts both years and won a grand total of 11 games? First of all, the Mariners are making a lot of smart moves this offseason -- and as I wrote earlier, fantasy owners should be taking notes.
Bedard still owns that magical 2007 season with the Orioles (221 strikeouts in just 182 innings), but to say he's had trouble staying healthy is an understatement. He underwent surgery on his shoulder last August will keep him out of action for the first part of 2010.
Fantasy owners shouldn't dismiss Bedard, but should instead put him on what I call a "Forget Me Not" list. It's a list of high-risk, high-upside guys coming off injuries who are likely to be drafted late (if at all), but who could be difference-makers if they beat the odds. Chris Carpenter was the best example from last season. Ben Sheets could be this year's version (except he's not likely to be forgotten because of his high-profile signing and $10 million contract).
A Forget Me Not list is a must in keeper leagues in which players who may even miss a large chunk of this season, but could be quite valuable down the road.
1) Erik Bedard, Mariners (13-5, 3.16 ERA, 10.9 K/9 in 2007, shoulder surgery last year, could return in June)
2) Edinson Volquez, Reds (17-6, 3.21 ERA, 206 K's in 2008 - elbow surgery last year, likely out all of 2010)
3) Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays (12-10, 4.08 ERA, 7.6 K/9 in 2007 - missed all of 2009 with shoulder problems, likely to begin season on DL)
4) Jeff Francis, Rockies (17-9, 4.22 ERA in 2007, missed all of 2009 after shoulder surgery, expected to be ready for spring training)
5) Chien-Ming Wang, free agent (38-13 in 2006-07, shoulder surgery last year, could be ready in May) ... OK, maybe this one's a stretch.
I remember kicking myself after an NL-only league draft last season when I forgot about Billy Wagner. Here's an upper-90s throwing closer who I could have stashed away for a buck and replaced immediately on my roster ... Instead, I wasted $1 on Dallas McPherson.
The bottom line: You're far more likely to win you league when you find a few hidden gems late in your draft. People love to debate whether Ryan Zimmerman is better than Pablo Sandoval, but in reality they're both so good that the minuscule difference between then really doesn't matter. Put just as much energy into making good picks late and you'll see it pay off at the end of the year.

 

[HacheMan]

Second Base Overview
I'll be looking at the second basemen in this week's overview column.

Second base Overview

Underrated

Robinson Cano (Yankees) - It's about as profitable hitting seventh for the Yankees as third or fourth in a typical lineup. Cano is a threat to contend for the batting title since he makes so much contact, and he developed into a 25-homer guy at age 26. Perhaps this will be the year he stops getting himself out with men on base and drives in 100 runs. The opportunities will certainly be there, and he'll have no one to blame but himself if he doesn't easily top last year's total of 85 RBI.

Howie Kendrick (Angels) - Kendrick is awfully risky, given his injury history and the Angels' decision to turn him into a platoon player in the second half of last season. However, he stayed completely healthy during 2009 and excelled in his limited role down the stretch, hitting .368/.391/.558 in 165 at-bats during the second half. Expectations are that he'll be given a chance to win back his starting job this spring, and a breakthrough at age 26 is a definite possibility. Kendrick is a career .302 hitter, and he really stepped up in the power department as last year went on. Only a few second basemen have more upside, so he'd be well worth trying in the middle rounds of mixed-league drafts.

Kelly Johnson (Diamondbacks) - Johnson's rough year was really just a disappointing half; he never got a chance to win back his job from Martin Prado as last season went on, but he did produce in scant chances after the All-Star break (.261/.358/.493 in 69 at-bats). Now he's going from a rather tough park for left-handed hitters to one of baseball's best in Arizona, and it's likely that he'll get to bat high in the order. He has 15-20 homer power, and since his strikeout rate has dropped every year he's been in the bigs, it seems likely that his average will bounce back.

Overrated

Chase Utley (Phillies) - I hate to put him here, but Utley is 31 now and second basemen tend to age very poorly compared to players at other positions. Perhaps due to hip and foot problems, he clearly wore down as last year went along (790 OPS after the break), though he put together a spectacular World Series anyway. His average has dipped from .332 to .292 to .282 since 2007, and no one should be counting on him to steal 23 bases again. Plus, he'll be batting behind Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco, neither of whom is particularly likely to get on base 35 percent of the time. I have Utley as the top second baseman anyway, but I don't think he's worthy of a first-round pick in mixed leagues.

Ben Zobrist (Rays) - It's going to be very expensive to find out if Zobrist can do it again. He deserved mid-ballot MVP consideration for hitting .297/.405/.543 in 501 at-bats last season, but he's no longer a secret and I don't see him making enough contact to hit for that kind of average again. Since he should be good for 20-25 homers and 15-20 steals, he ranks as a top-10 second baseman. I just don't think he'll provide the same value as alternatives like Cano and Brandon Phillips.

Orlando Hudson (Twins) - The Twins were smart to ante up $5 million to bring in Hudson, but the 32-year-old tends to be an overrated fantasy commodity. He's hasn't eclipsed 10 homers since 2006 and he's never stolen more than 10 bases. He's played in 150 games just once in his career. If he can stay healthy, he might top his previous career high in runs (87 in 2006) as the Twins' No. 2 hitter. He won't excel elsewhere, though.

Sleepers

Scott Sizemore (Tigers) - Sizemore is the far better bet of the two rookies currently slated to bat at the top of Detroit's lineup. While there's little reason to think Austin Jackson is ready to hit in the majors, Sizemore has a much more mature approach, one that led to a .308/.389/.500 line between Double- and Triple-A last season. He had 17 homers and 21 steals in 25 attempts, so the potential is there for him to contribute in all five categories. Of course, it would help if the Tigers went out and got a leadoff man.

Jeff Baker (Cubs) - The Cubs may yet find a bargain second baseman prior to Opening Day, but as things stand now, Baker and Mike Fontenot are set to battle it out for the job. Ideally, the left-handed-hitting Fontenot, the superior defender of the two, would bounce back from a rough 2009 and claim the larger half of the platoon. Baker, though, ended last year as the preferred choice, and he has the greater fantasy upside of the two. He could hit 20 homers and drive in 70 runs if he finds his way to 500 at-bats.

Omar Infante (Braves) - Infante is one of the game's better utilityman, and he could stand to pick up a lot of playing time this year while functioning as a backup to two injury-prone corner infielders -- Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus -- as well as second baseman Martin Prado. If Chipper or Prado goes down, Infante would immediately take over as a regular. When Glaus gets hurt, Infante will battle Eric Hinske for playing time, with Prado shifting over to first on occasion. He may prove to be a nice find at $1 in NL-only leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

A double-shift may be the best way to defend Joe Mauer

Major props go out today to FanGraphs.com. They're always on the cutting edge of statistical analysis over there and their site should be one of the places you check out on a regular basis (after Fantasy Windup, of course).
One of the new features FanGraphs has just introduced is a breakdown of hitters' and pitchers' split stats to a greater degree than anywhere else. Consider this post from FanGraphs' Dave Cameron on AL MVP Joe Mauer.
He notes that Mauer has a strong tendency to hit the ball on the ground when he pulls a pitch (76.5%), but he usually hits the ball in the air (49.7%) when he goes the opposite way. That tendency ends up giving the left-handed hitting Mauer a slugging percentage of .398 on balls hit to the right side, compared to .693 on balls hit to the left side -- the complete opposite of just about every other hitter in the majors!
<!-- page break -->(A look at Mauer's 2009 home run data from HitTrackerOnline.com provides even more supporting evidence. The Horiz. Angle column shows the direction of the ball as measured from the RF foul line. Fifteen of Mauer's 28 homers are 90 degrees or above -- meaning from center field to left field.)
What Cameron suggests is that teams would be smart to employ TWO shifts on Mauer when he comes to the plate. Move three infielders on the right side of second base to get all those ground balls ... and move the outfielders around toward left to cut down on the extra base hits to the gaps.
What a radical idea. But would any team actually try it?

 

[HacheMan]

Rangers' Neftali Feliz tops 100 Names to Know list


No one yet knows what his role will be this season, but just about everyone agrees that Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers will do it well. Feliz holds the No. 1 spot in Sports Weekly's annual 100 Names You Need to Know.
The 100 Names list is comprised of players who have yet to play a half season in the majors and although it's comprised of mostly rookies, there are some others who are just beyond the cusp of rookie status. They're ranked according to their expected impact this season, so fantasy owners in redraft leagues will find the list especially useful.
The 21-year-old right-hander had a fantastic debut at the end of last season, going 1-0 with two saves and a sparkling 1.74 ERA. But what has the Rangers and fantasy owners excited was his 39 strikeouts in 31 innings. The Rangers have been a little secretive this offseason about the role they have for Feliz. GM Jon Daniels has said he'll begin the spring competing for a spot in the starting rotation, but he could also be a valuable part of the bullpen. With his electric stuff, Feliz has the potential to be a dominant closer.
In addition to being at the top of the 100 Names list, Feliz was also rated the top prospect by Mastersball.com in USA TODAY's fantasy baseball magazine.
So who are these names and why should fantasy owners know them in 2010? Let's take a look at the top 10.
1. Neftali Feliz, SP/RP, Rangers
-- Could be a dominant closer, but will rack up the K's as a starter.
2. Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles
-- not technically a rookie, but has the smarts beyond his 22 years.
3. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
-- Went 12-2 with a 1.85 ERA in minors and is only 20.
4. Wade Davis, SP, Rays
-- In six starts with Tampa Bay, he went 2-2 but struck out 36 in 36 1/3 innings.
5. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
-- Will have starting job on opening day, similar to Texas' Elvis Andrus last year.
6. Mat Latos, SP, Padres
-- Went 4-5 in 10 starts last year, but has Petco Park on his side.
7. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
-- Will likely start season in minors, but could supplant Andy LaRoche by May.
8. Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles
-- Possible fifth starter, but could start season in minors to get regular work.
9. Kyle Blanks, OF, Padres
-- Had excellent HR/AB numbers last year, can play 1B if Adrian Gonzalez is traded.
10. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers
-- Coming back from broken ankle, he's the top candidate to replace Placido Polanco.
Want more? Here's a look at the entire list of 100.

 

[HacheMan]

Around the Web: Citi Field lowers height of CF fence


Just cleaning out some random thoughts while working on Sports Weekly's Fantasy Guide, one of the many things we'll have in store for you this spring ...

The New York Mets will be reducing the height of the center field fence at Citi Field this season from 16 feet to eight feet, according to the New York Daily News.
The Mets finished last in the majors a year ago with 95 home runs (the Giants were next at 122), but don't expect the tweak to make a whole lot of difference -- especially since there will be no changes to the park's dimensions.
What does that mean for David Wright? As you can see from his HR chart from HitTrackerOnline.com, Wright doesn't hit many homers to center field anyway. (Be sure to check out both the 2009 and 2008 data.)
That said, I still expect Wright's power to rebound in 2010. His HR/FB rate went from 17% in '08 to just 7% in '09. I just can't see it being that low again.
YOUR THOUGHTS: Are you buying or selling on David Wright this season?
Elsewhere, some good news for Buster Posey owners. (And if you think I have a preoccupation with Posey, you're right. I do own him in an NL-only keeper league.)
Posey could see some time in the infield this season, reports the San Jose Mercury News. That might give him a chance to begin the season in San Francisco instead of at Class AAA Fresno.
The staff at Fanball.com takes a shot at predicting what's in store for the NL champion Phillies this season.
If you've overdosed on prospects already, feel free to ignore this next link. But if you can't get enough, Joe Hamrahi of Baseball Daily Digest compiles a whole bunch of prospect lists into one downloadable spreadsheet.

 

[HacheMan]

Cheap Speed in the Outfield
I'm hesitant to pay a premium for elite speed early when better all-around players are available and not coincidentally am often left scrounging for steals in the later rounds. Finding cheap speed can definitely be a challenge, but targeting the following young outfielders will help close out your roster with some serious stolen base upside.

Michael Brantley - Indians

Brantley made his MLB debut last September filling in for the injured Grady Sizemore in center field, but now that Sizemore is healthy the Indians are apparently leaning toward starting Brantley alongside him in left field. According to manager Manny Acta the rookie "has a leg up" on competition that includes scrap-heap veterans Austin Kearns and Shelley Duncan plus lesser prospects Trevor Crowe and Jordan Brown.

Acta made it clear that Brantley won't be handed the job, but as a left-handed hitter he'd make sense platooning with right-handed bats Kearns or Duncan. Even a platoon gig starting versus righties would give Brantley plenty of fantasy upside thanks to his speed, as he went 46-for-51 swiping bases in 116 games at Triple-A and has averaged 45 steals per 150 games at an 81 percent success rate for his minor-league career.

Brantley controls the strike zone well and should post a solid batting average, but a lack of power would make his overall production underwhelming in a corner. The Draft Guide projects him to hit .267/.337/.344 as a rookie, which would be 100 points of OPS below average for the position. Of course, for fantasy purposes he's simply an "outfielder" and if the Indians are willing to live with a .680 OPS there his OBP is enough for running opportunities.

Drew Stubbs - Reds

By dumping Willy Taveras' contract on the A's (who released him exactly one week later) the Reds left no doubt that Stubbs will be their everyday center fielder and leadoff man. There are lots of questions about Stubbs' bat because he strikes out a ton and hasn't shown nearly as much power as people expected when he was the eighth overall pick in 2006, but his speed is definitely for real.

Stubbs stole 10 bags in his 42-game debut with the Reds last season after going 49-for-57 on the bases in 126 games at Triple-A. Between his spot atop the lineup and a manager in Dusty Baker who loves speed more than just about any other skill he'll be given the green light to go at all times, which could lead to 40-steal potential if Stubbs can manage a decent on-base percentage.

He held his own as a rookie, hitting .267/.323/.439, but a 49/15 K/BB ratio shows why he may struggle to consistently get on base. Stubbs hit just .269 with a good but not great walk rate in 423 games as a minor leaguer, so his running chances may be somewhat limited by simply not being on first base that often. Still, the Draft Guide projects 33 steals and he's a better bet at the plate than someone like Brantley.

Carlos Gomez - Brewers

The jury is very much still out on whether Gomez will ever hit and his undisciplined struggles at the plate got him benched in Minnesota quite a bit down the stretch last season, but his glove is already among baseball's best in center field and the Brewers have committed to playing him every day after giving up J.J. Hardy to get him in early November.

When he's chasing down a fly ball in the gap or going from first to third on a single Gomez is definitely among the fastest handful of players in baseball, but he's still very raw as a base-stealer and goes in streaks with both the frequency of attempts and his success rate. Add it all up and he's averaged 32 steals per 600 plate appearances in the majors.

What's remarkable is that he's been able to steal that many bases despite a) being successful only 73 percent of the time, and b) reaching base at a measly .292 clip. Even modest improvements in those areas would give him 40-steal potential and while I'm not convinced Gomez's bat will ever be especially good he's certainly capable of growing into his speed and/or refining his hitting approach at age 24.

Brett Gardner - Yankees

Gardner's place on this list comes with a caveat, because to truly unleash his excellent speed he'd have to first beat out Randy Winn for the gig platooning with Marcus Thames in left field. That seems somewhat unlikely, although the 36-year-old Winn could certainly play himself out of the lineup after Opening Day and Gardner will also be the backup option in center field if anything happens to Curtis Granderson.

If given even 300-400 plate appearances Gardner is capable of 40-50 steals, so you'll want to keep close tabs on the Yankees' left field situation throughout spring training. Most likely he'll begin the season as a fourth outfielder, but he's a near-lock to crack 20 steals again even in that limited role. Consider that Gardner has 39 steals in 425 career plate appearances as a big leaguer after swiping 61 bags in 143 games at Triple-A.

 

[HacheMan]

K-BAD draft in progress: Dodgers' Kemp a surprise at No. 6?


What makes this draft different from many others is that it requires the participants to justify every draft pick they make, from the first to the 23rd round. And you, the reader, will get a chance to see behind the decision-making process. Hopefully, it will help if and when you come to a similar crossroads in your draft.
I think the first five picks are going to be the same in most any mixed league. But one thing I've noticed in the mock drafts I've seen and participated in has been demonstrated again here. People really like Matt Kemp of the Dodgers this year.
As you can see from the draft chart below, Kemp went sixth overall, right behind Ryan Braun. I have the No. 7 overall pick and here's how things have gone so far:
<TABLE border=1 width=400 align=center><TBODY><TR><TD>Pick</TD><TD>Name</TD><TD>Company</TD><TD>Player</TD><TD>POS</TD></TR><TR><TD>1</TD><TD>Joe Hamrahi</TD><TD>Baseball Prospectus</TD><TD>Albert Pujols</TD><TD>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD>2</TD><TD>Ryan Lester</TD><TD>Lester's Legends</TD><TD>Hanley Ramirez</TD><TD>SS</TD></TR><TR><TD>3</TD><TD>Doug Anderson</TD><TD>RotoExperts</TD><TD>Alex Rodriguez</TD><TD>3B</TD></TR><TR><TD>4</TD><TD>Collin Hager</TD><TD>FantasyPros911.com</TD><TD>Chase Utley</TD><TD>2B</TD></TR><TR><TD>5</TD><TD>Jeff Paur</TD><TD>RTSports</TD><TD>Ryan Braun</TD><TD>OF</TD></TR><TR><TD>6</TD><TD>Nicholas Minnix</TD><TD>KFFL</TD><TD>Matt Kemp</TD><TD>OF</TD></TR><TR><TD>7</TD><TD>Steve Gardner</TD><TD>USA TODAY</TD><TD>Mark Teixeira
</TD><TD>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD>8</TD><TD>Harold Nichols</TD><TD>Baseball HQ</TD><TD>Joe Mauer
</TD><TD>C</TD></TR><TR><TD>9</TD><TD>Ray Flowers</TD><TD>Baseball Guys</TD><TD>Miguel Cabrera</TD><TD>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>Tim Heaney</TD><TD>KFFL</TD><TD>Prince Fielder</TD><TD>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD>11</TD><TD>Pasko Varnica</TD><TD>Mastersball</TD><TD>Ryan Howard</TD><TD>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD>12</TD><TD>Eriq Gardner</TD><TD>The Hardball Times</TD><TD>Matt Holliday</TD><TD>OF</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
You can feel free to analyze the picks and even suggest who I should take in the first few rounds. I'm locked in to a first baseman here in Round 1, but the more interesting pick will come on the way back in Round 2.
I like being in the middle on these so I won't get shut out completely if I have a glaring need. And remember ... we're going to play this season out so unlike a mock draft I'll have to live with these picks all season.

 

[HacheMan]

2010 Third Base Overview
Up this week is the third base overview. For my complete projections and writeups of over 1,000 players, check out Rotoworld's online draft guide.

Third base Overview

Underrated

David Wright (Mets) - There was never any great explanation for Wright's extremely unusual 2009 season that saw him hit more singles and doubles than normal yet lose all of his home run power and strike out more frequently than ever. Citi Field played a role, but I think it was less the park itself and more a case of Wright psyching himself out. The numbers say Citi Field was a better home run part for right-handed hitters than Shea Stadium ever was. In the end, I think the whole thing will shape up as a fluke. There's no reason Wright shouldn't hit at least 25 homers this year, and he may well approach 35. It might not result in big run and RBI numbers, particularly if he's stuck behind Jason Bay in the Mets lineup, but he's the No. 2 fantasy third baseman behind Alex Rodriguez anyway. He's worthy of a late first-round pick in mixed leagues.

Adrian Beltre (Red Sox) - After 12 seasons in Los Angeles and Seattle, Beltre will finally get a chance to play half of his games in a hitters park this year in Boston. While he's spent much of his career being labeled a disappointment, Beltre might well be on a Hall of Fame path right now had he played in kinder ballparks. He's hit .253/.311/.416 at home and .287/.338/.488 on the road in his career. Now Fenway probably won't make him a 30-homer guy -- it's no more of a home run park than Safeco is -- but it will help his batting average, and he should have a whole bunch of RBI opportunities batting sixth or seventh in the Red Sox lineup. He'll be a nice middle-round option for those who miss out on the top third basemen.

Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays) - I still believe the Jays should just move him to right field, but while Encarnacion is a big liability at third base, he is due to bust out offensively. He has a career OPS of 790 in 1,918 at-bats, and he's just now entering his age-27 season. The transition from the NL to the AL didn't pose much of a problem last year, as he hit .274/.364/.547 with seven homers in 95 at-bats during September. The Jays aren't looking at him as a long-term piece, but they'll play him regularly and hope that he builds some trade value as the year goes on. He's a possibility to hit 25 homers and drive in 90 runs, so mixed leaguers should be quick to pounce on him if he gets off to a good start in April.

Overrated

Mark Reynolds (Diamondbacks) - Even with all of the strikeouts, Reynolds might well be capable of batting .250-.260 again. He certainly does hit the ball hard when he makes contact, and he's in a ballpark that's about as friendly as any in the game. It's the 44 homers that could be tougher to repeat. Last year, Reynolds homered on major league-high 26 percent of his flyballs, compared to 16 percent as a rookie and 18 percent as a sophomore. That's probably not sustainable, and I'm also guessing that Reynolds won't attempt 33 steals again. I have him a distant fourth at third base behind A-Rod, Wright and Evan Longoria, and I see him as a fourth-round pick in mixed leagues.

Chone Figgins (Mariners) - It's a given that Figgins will be of very little use in two categories. One could suggest that he'll do better than usual in RBI now that he'll be batting second, but considering that he's lucky to collect two extra-base hits a week, he's not going to be driving in Ichiro Suzuki from first base with much frequency. So, it'll mostly come down to what he does elsewhere, and it's worth noting that Figgins has hit better than .300 just once in his career and he's losing effectiveness as a basestealer. While he was successful on 77 percent of his attempts from 2005-07, he's dropped to 72 and 71 the last two years. He also hardly figures to be a run machine given the lack of power in the middle of Seattle's lineup; Ichiro was driven in just 77 times in 146 games last year, compared to Figgins' 109 times in 158 games for the Angels. Those seeking steals should look to the outfield instead.

Gordon Beckham (White Sox) - Beckham will be the No. 11 second baseman as soon as he's eligible. Right now, I have him listed as the No. 13 third baseman. Most will treat him as though he belongs in the top 10 at both positions, but while I think there's a good case for him as the White Sox's best player, I don't see him excelling in any one fantasy category just yet. My projection calls for a .274-19-80 line, along with eight steals.

Casey McGehee (Brewers) - It's rarely a true jump in ability when a player has a rookie season so completely out of line with his minor league numbers, particularly when that rookie happens to be 26 years old. McGehee delivered liners in bunches last season and finished with a .301/.360/.499 line for the Brewers after hitting .282/.335/.410 in Triple-A over the previous three years. Still, much of his success was focused in a pair of three-week runs in June and September. I doubt he'll be good for as many singles or homers this year, and I expect him to eventually lose his job to Mat Gamel.

Sleepers

Mark Teahen (White Sox) - I'm not sure why Teahen got a three-year contract and a raise over the winter while Kelly Johnson got non-tendered and forced to take a paycut, but sometimes White Sox GM Ken Williams sees things I don't. Plus, there is the ballpark switch. Park factors have Kauffman Stadium as the 29th most difficult home run park for left-handed hitters over the last three years, while U.S. Cellular Stadium has ranked second over the same timeframe. It's possible Teahen could finish with 18-20 homers and 75-80 RBI even without hitting much better than he has the last couple of years.

David Freese (Cardinals) - Freese's prospects received a huge lift when the Cardinals used most of their available money to re-sign Matt Holliday. They still could add a third baseman -- Felipe Lopez has been talked about, though not lately -- but Freese tops the depth chart at the moment. The 26-year-old has hit .306/.361/.550 and .300/.369/.525 in Triple-A the last two seasons, though he was limited to 200 at-bats there last year because of an ankle injury. Because his defense is rather rough, he'll have to hit in order to hold down a job. However, he should be good for 20 homers and 75 RBI if he gets 500 at-bats.

Brandon Wood (Angels) - He's still a big question mark, but there were some encouraging signs from Wood's 2009 season. The biggest was the sharp drop in his strikeout rate. He's gone from fanning in his 33 percent of his at-bats in Double-A in 2006 to 27, 26 and now 21 in his three years in Triple-A. He hasn't experienced any major league success at all, but he simply never had the chance last year. The opportunity is guaranteed to come this year, since he's out of options and there's no way he'll slip through waivers if the Angels decide to give up on him at some point. Since he is a fine defender at third, I expect them to be pretty patient. I'm putting him down at .245-19-57 in 437 at-bats. A 25-homer season is hardly beyond the realm of possibility.

Other thoughts

- Kevin Kouzmanoff went from the worst situation in baseball to perhaps the second worst in Oakland, plus he'll have to adjust to facing the whole new set of pitchers. I would have been optimistic had he ended up in Houston or Philadelphia, but I won't be recommending him as is.

- Alex Gordon remains a wild card. He's been too mediocre for too long for me to project a breakout again, but he'd be nice to have filling a bench spot in mixed leagues. I have him down for 21 homers and 12 steals, which would make him pretty useful if he either suddenly starts hitting for average or if some other Royals surprise and help him out when it comes to runs and RBI.

 

[HacheMan]

Closing Thoughts
As part of my never-ending search for cheap saves, here are some bits of reliever news that may have flown under the radar this week ...

Marlins sign MacDougal to minor-league deal

Mike MacDougal managing only a minor-league contract in mid-February shows that more and more teams are smartly looking beyond saves and ERA to evaluate relievers. MacDougal converted 20-of-21 save chances in the Nationals' horrendous bullpen last season and posted a 3.60 ERA in 50 innings, but his 31/31 K/BB ratio was ugly and his track record is littered with equally spotty control.

MacDougal has a mid-90s fastball, began his career closing for the Royals, and has accumulated 70 career saves, but he's incredibly streaky and realistically more of a second-tier setup man in a good bullpen. Of course, the Marlins' bullpen isn't especially strong--at least not in established late-inning options--so MacDougal may enter the season as next in line for saves if anything happens to incumbent Leo Nunez.

Nunez converted 23-of-27 save opportunities after taking over closer duties from Matt Lindstrom last season, but also had a 4.06 ERA while serving up 13 homers in 68.2 innings. While a better bet than MacDougal he's certainly not an ideal closer either, and from Kevin Gregg and Todd Jones to Joe Borowski and Lindstrom the Marlins have definitely shown a willingness to make in-season changes in the ninth inning.

Dodgers sign Gagne to minor-league deal

They both managed only minor-league deals in mid-February, but MacDougal is far more likely than Eric Gagne to end up with saves this season. Los Angeles' bullpen is much deeper than Florida's, including an elite closer in Jonathan Broxton and a clear-cut top setup man with previous closing experience in George Sherrill. And there's also plenty of reason to doubt whether Gagne can even get big-league hitters out at this point.

He spent last year posting a 4.65 ERA with just 64 strikeouts in 102.2 innings in an independent league and hasn't been effective in the majors since mid-2007. This week he worked out for the Rockies and reportedly wasn't impressive, although they did offer a minor-league contract. He opted for a reunion with the Dodgers, but either way Gagne may have to put together a strong stretch at Triple-A before he gets another chance.

MacDougal and Gagne basically got the same deal. MacDougal gets $700,000 if he makes the Marlins and can earn another $75,000 in incentives. Gagne gets $500,000 if he makes the Dodgers and can earn another $500,000 in incentives. But if you're taking a flier on a washed-up former closer your NL-only roster spot would definitely best be used on MacDougal. Gagne isn't much of a target in even the deepest of deep leagues.

If you're hungry for more analysis of closer situations, the Rotoworld Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide has a detailed "Bullpen Peport" for every team as well as an in-depth article entitled "Where Do Closers Come From?" Oh, and the Draft Guide also has projected save totals for hundreds of relievers, from league leaders Mariano Rivera and Francisco Rodriguez down to guys like Jose Mijares and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Strained elbow sidelines Hanrahan

Joel Hanrahan impressed down the stretch in Pittsburgh after coming over from Washington in the Lastings Milledge-for-Nyjer Morgan swap and was slated to be the primary setup man for closer Octavio Dotel this season. Instead he's now expected to begin the season on the disabled list with a strained elbow that may end up being something more significant depending on next week's visit with Dr. James Andrews.

Hanrahan revealed that he spent much of the second half pitching through elbow pain, which is remarkable given that he had a 1.72 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 31.1 innings for the Pirates. His elbow began barking again during a mini-camp mound session last month, so he's been shut down indefinitely and now an already weak Pittsburgh bullpen could be scrambling for answers in front of Dotel.

Neshek feeling good after surgery

Between coming back from Tommy John surgery and Joe Nathan being cemented atop Minnesota's bullpen depth chart Pat Neshek has little chance for significant saves this season. However, before blowing out his elbow in mid-2008 he was among the most valuable setup man in fantasy baseball, going 11-5 with a 2.91 ERA, 142 strikeouts, and 0.96 WHIP through 120.2 career innings.

After missing most of 2008 and all of 2009 he'll have to prove himself again before getting another look in high-leverage situations, but so far the news is positive. He reported to Twins camp early to face hitters for the first time since surgery and showed good velocity with both his fastball and slider. His raw stuff was never overpowering, as he relied on the deception of a side-arm delivery, so Neshek will be worth tracking this spring

 

[HacheMan]

February Mockin': Part Three


A little note before we get underway: I'm hoping to throw together a mailbag column next week and first need to gather some questions. Please, if you have anything on your mind as spring training begins to heat up, send me an e-mail or find me on Twitter and pose a question. Send me anything you want, but keep in mind that items dealing with more broad and general topics are more likely to make the final column. I have no problem giving my two cents as to who you should retain in a dynasty or keeper league and will get back to you as soon as possible on those type of questions, but, well, nobody else cares about your fantasy team. It's a sad truth.

Now to the good stuff. Finally, I bring you the final six rounds of the industry mock draft that I hosted a few weeks ago at the excellent CouchManagers.com. The first six rounds can be found HERE and the middle six can be found HERE. Again, the gracious crew that helped me pull this thing off:

Team 1: Eno Sarris (FanGraphs.com, FantasyLoungeSports.com)
Team 2: Auto-Queue (Computer-run)
Team 3: Drew Silva (That's Me!)
Team 4: Steve Gardner (USA Today)
Team 5: Tim Dierkes (MLBTradeRumors, RotoAuthority)
Team 6: Mike Axisa (River Ave. Blues, MLBTradeRumors)
Team 7: Jesse Spector (New York Daily News)
Team 8: Sam Miller (Orange County Register)
Team 9: Chet Gresham (Razzball.com)
Team 10: Dan Wade (Bleacher Report)
Team 11: Thor Nystrom (Rotoworld)
Team 12: D.J. Short (Rotoworld)

Oh, and if you haven't already checked out everything our annual Rotoworld Draft Guide has to offer you're really missing out.

[My picks can be found in bold, blue lettering.]

[SIZE=+1]Round Thirteen[/SIZE]

13. 1. Juan Pierre
13. 2. Asdrubal Cabrera
13. 3. Russell Martin
13. 4. Todd Helton
13. 5. Rafael Soriano
13. 6. Huston Street
13. 7. Milton Bradley
13. 8. David Aardsma
13. 9. Jose Valverde
13. 10. Andrew Bailey
13. 11. David Price
13. 12. Billy Wagner

Talking Points

Russell Martin had a really disappointing 2009 season -- there's no denying that -- but I still feel like he's falling a bit too far in the mock drafts I've tracked this winter. Let's throw this particular mock into that pile as well. Yes, Martin's numbers have fallen consistently since he posted a .293/.374/.469 batting line in '07. And, yes, they hit rock bottom last year when he finished with a 681 OPS. But the Dodgers are still trusting him with everyday catching duties and the same can't be said for a few guys who are being selected above him. We've seen him smack 19 home runs and we know he's capable of 20-plus stolen bases. Can the same be said for Kurt Suzuki, who was selected in the 10th round of this mock draft? Or how about Mike Napoli, whose ADP isn't far off?

There are countless reasons to dislike Martin as a fantasy and non-fantasy catcher, and his steadily declining performance at the plate should not be overlooked. That said, some amount of bounce-back toward his 775 career OPS can safely be expected this season, and with that should come a resurgence in power and possibly stolen bases.

Best Value

Out of the 12 picks made in Round 13, six of them were closers. That's an insane and borderline intimidating rush on ninth-inning arms, but it's certainly not uncommon in the fantasy baseball world. Of the closers taken, I have to say that Huston Street appeals to me most. He amassed a stellar 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP last season for the Wild Card-winning Rockies and converted 35 saves in 37 chances. The 26-year-old former Athletic is on a massively talented team this year and he should flourish in the ninth inning yet again.

[SIZE=+1]Round Fourteen[/SIZE]

14. 1. Ryan Dempster
14. 2. Rick Porcello
14. 3. John Danks
14. 4. Geovany Soto
14. 5. David Ortiz
14. 6. Nick Johnson
14. 7. Orlando Hudson
14. 8. Kevin Slowey
14. 9. Nate McLouth
14. 10. Jorge Cantu
14. 11. Ian Stewart
14. 12. Jeff Niemann

Talking Points

Rick Porcello achieved star status in Detroit last season by throwing up a 14-9 record and 3.96 ERA over his first 31 major league starts. It was a heck of a rookie campaign and he's going to be a force in the American League Central for years to come. But we're playing fantasy baseball here, and the 21-year-old New Jersey native simply doesn't the fit the mold of a desirable fantasy starter. Porcello is a sinkerball pitcher. He relies on high groundball rates and he's been groomed to pitch to contact. The kid has a great thing going and we would be foolish to knock him, yet keep in mind that he struck out only 89 batters in the 170 2/3 innings that he logged last season. That number may rise this year, but it won't go very far.

Jeff Niemann, who tallied 125 strikeouts in 180 2/3 innings, is be a better option than Porcello. So is John Danks, who fanned 149 batters in 200 innings. In fact, we could probably run down the rest of this draft board and find over a dozen more suitable fantasy starters.

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Best Value

Here's an easy one. For whatever reason, none of them valid or excusable, Ian Stewart dropped to the 14th round and 167th overall pick in this particular mock draft. The selection charted way off his average draft position (127, according to MockDraftCentral.com) and rightfully drew rave reviews from most of the fellas involved. Stewart, 24, blasted 25 home runs and collected 70 RBI last season while making just 425 at-bats. He's now the Rockies' full-time starting third baseman, thanks to the departure of Garrett Atkins, and he is poised for a monstrous season in Coors Field. Stewart flashed impressive power at every level of the Rox' minor league system before finally earning a permanent call to the bigs in 2008. Look for him to continue progressing.

[SIZE=+1]Round Fifteen[/SIZE]

15. 1. Wade Davis
15. 2. Franklin Gutierrez
15. 3. Mark DeRosa
15. 4. Clay Buchholz
15. 5. Chad Qualls
15. 6. Adam LaRoche
15. 7. Rich Harden
15. 8. Adrian Beltre
15. 9. Francisco Cordero
15. 10. Rajai Davis
15. 11. Mike Napoli
15. 12. Martin Prado

Talking Points

Selecting a pitching prospect in a fantasy draft can be risky business, especially when said prospect has thrown less than 37 major league innings. We're talking about the Rays' Wade Davis, of course. He was snagged in this mock with the 169th overall pick by FanGraphs' Eno Sarris, over 100 spots off his average draft position (313, according to MockDraftCentral.com). Still, it's hard to disagree with the pick. The Rays are committed to giving Davis as many innings as possible this season and his minor league stat lines are gorgeous.

"Wade is in a much different position to be able to take on a heavier load, in our minds, so in that respect it's different," vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last week when a reporter tried to compare Davis to other finely-groomed starters like David Price. "He's in a position in our minds to put 200-plus innings together. He's extremely talented, he worked his way through the system very methodically, and when he got to the major leagues in September, he pitched extremely well." Davis, who turned 24 at the end of last season, had a 3.28 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and 745 strikeouts in 767 1/3 minor league frames before finally earning a promotion to the bigs in 2009. He is ready for a breakout.

Best Value

Francisco Cordero gets lost in the shuffle when casual fans begin to debate the game's elite closers. That mostly has to due with the Reds' ongoing run of playoff-less baseball and it makes him a wonderful fantasy sleeper. He fell to the 177th overall pick in this mock draft, well off his average draft position (ADP) of 107. Cordero posted a 2.16 ERA and 39 saves for the Reds in 2009 and has saved 73 games over the past two seasons. He also has two years and $25 million remaining on his current contract, so we know he has a very long leash.

[SIZE=+1]Round Sixteen[/SIZE]

16. 1. Ted Lilly
16. 2. Bobby Jenks
16. 3. Francisco Liriano
16. 4. Garrett Jones
16. 5. Ben Sheets
16. 6. Chris Davis
16. 7. Jorge De La Rosa
16. 8. Jonathan Sanchez
16. 9. Trevor Hoffman
16. 10. J.A. Happ
16. 11. Marco Scutaro
16. 12. Chris Iannetta

Talking Points

To say Chris Iannetta has been treated unfairly in Colorado is an understatement. The 26-year-old batted a respectable .228/.344/.460 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI in 289 at-bats last season and .264/.390/.505 with 18 homers the year before, and yet the Rockies have continued to shy away from handing him the full-time catching job. The front office brought in Miguel Olivo this winter on a one-year, $2.5 million contract and he will surely grab close to half of the available backstop at-bats. Iannetta is still a fine fantasy selection because he puts up great numbers when he is in the lineup, but it's a shame we haven't been able to see what he can do with over 500 plate appearances.

Marco Scutaro is getting more fantasy attention this year than he has in his previous seven major league seasons combined. It's not hard to understand why -- the shortstop batted .282/.379/.409 with 12 homers, 60 RBI and 100 runs scored last season -- but I'm not so sure we can expect the same results this year. Scutaro will often be batting ninth in the Red Sox' order and he was brought to Boston primarily for his defense. The 34-year-old's .265/.337/.384 career batting line suggests he might be headed for a rather steep regression.

When guys like J.J. Hardy and Alcides Escobar are still on the board, it's hard to justify grabbing Scutaro. He may help the Red Sox win gobs of contests this season with his slick glove, but he's hardly a viable fantasy shortstop.

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Best Value

Let's go ahead and loop Francisco Liriano and Ben Sheets into the same category and call them both excellent 16th-round values. Both pitchers have been ace-like in the past but carry giant question marks heading into the 2010 season. Liriano was absolutely dominant during his stay in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, compiling a 0.82 ERA and a 54/7 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings before fanning 10 batters in a one-hit effort in the championship game. Still, it's hard to overlook the 5-13 record and 5.80 ERA that he put up for the Twins last year. Sheets, meanwhile, is coming off major elbow surgery and hasn't pitched in a major league game since 2008. We all know what he's capable of, but will he be able to stay healthy this season in Oakland? When he falls this far on a draft board it's hard to care either way.

[SIZE=+1]Round Seventeen[/SIZE]

17. 1. Mike Gonzalez
17. 2. Bengie Molina
17. 3. Johnny Damon
17. 4. Placido Polanco
17. 5. Kerry Wood
17. 6. Cody Ross
17. 7. Matt LaPorta
17. 8. Ervin Santana
17. 9. Johnny Cueto
17. 10. Ricky Romero
17. 11. Corey Hart
17. 12. Nolan Reimold

Talking Points

This draft happened over two weeks ago, so the selection of Johnny Damon in the 17th round should be taken with a grain of salt. He will not last that long in most drafts now that he has finally landed with a team and he is already shooting up the ADP Report over at MockDraftCentral.com.

That said, if Damon does fall this far in any draft you might participate in this spring, he is most definitely worth grabbing. The 36-year-old is a poor defender and his power numbers last season were aided by the cozy confines of Yankee Stadium, but he still has some legitimite pop and he's good for double-digit stolen bases. The Tigers' lineup is perfectly respectable and he will have ample opportunity to score runs and collect RBI just as he did in New York.

Best Value

When players are widely pegged as fantasy "sleepers," they tend to climb up draft boards and owners, in the end, often wind up overpaying. A fantasy sleeper is someone you grab in the later rounds of a draft that will give you as much value as a player selected several rounds previous. Nolan Reimold is the perfect example. He batted .279/.365/.466 with 15 homers, 45 RBI and eight stolen bases in 358 at-bats as a rookie and will start in left field for the Orioles this season. With a full slate of at-bats, we're expecting big things.

[SIZE=+1]Round Eighteen[/SIZE]

18. 1. Octavio Dotel
18. 2. Vernon Wells
18. 3. J.J. Hardy
18. 4. Neftali Feliz
18. 5. Alcides Escobar
18. 6. Brian Fuentes
18. 7. Edwin Jackson
18. 8. Matt Capps
18. 9. Yadier Molina
18. 10. Ryan Ludwick
18. 11. Scott Feldman
18. 12. Frank Francisco

Talking Points

The last round of a fantasy draft is often the most fun, or at least the most interesting, and this mock was no different. From Ryan Ludwick, to Frank Francisco, to Brian Fuentes and Edwin Jackson, the sleepers were falling off the board in the final round. Neftali Feliz, though, is probably the most intriguing of the selections.

Feliz, 21, had an electric rookie debut last season, posting a 1.74 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP and a 39/8 K/BB ratio in 31 innings. He has a fastball that has been clocked in the triple-digits and a curveball-changeup combo that can keep any major league hitter off balance. Though Feliz is expected to land back in the bullpen once the regular season gets underway, he is being groomed as a starter this spring and he is likely to find his way into the rotation before the All-Star break. It's not hard to fill a fantasy roster with an 18-round draft and it's even easier when drafts go to 22 rounds. I'm a big fan of grabbing high-reward pitchers in those last, mostly meaningless rounds, and Feliz fits that bill.

Best Value

I'll have to admit that I let out a groan when the Brewers' Alcides Escobar fell off the board with the 209th overall pick, just a few spots above my draft slot. He is my go-to late-round selection in the several mock drafts that I have participated in this offseason and I'm excited about his potential as a fantasy shortstop. The 23-year-old Escobar batted .304/.333/.368 with one home run, 11 RBI and four stolen bases in 38 games with the Brewers last season and will start at short for Milwaukee this year. He swiped 42 stolen bases in 109 games at Triple-A Nashville in '09 and carries major stolen base potential in the bigs.

 

[HacheMan]

Wright still the standard-bearer for NL third basemen


There are a number of good fantasy options at third base in the National League, but it's one of those positions where you really need to make the right choice because just about every one has some small kind of flaw.


Take for example, the league's traditional top gun -- David Wright of the New York Mets -- who mysteriously turned into a pea-shooter at the plate last season. After slugging between 26 and 33 home runs in each of his first four full seasons, Wright only managed to hit 10 round-trippers last season.
It would be easy to blame the spacious dimensions of the Mets' new ballpark, Citi Field -- except Wright hit just as many home runs there (five) as he did on the road. In the offseason the Mets decided to shorten the height of the center field fence from 16 feet to eight feet. But that shouldn't affect Wright (or many other people either) since very few home runs are hit to straighaway center field anyway. But there isn't anything in his stat line to indicate Wright's power won't return.
Considering his history (don't forget the stolen bases) and the strong possibility that the Mets will be better offensively this season, Wright gets the nod as the NL's top third baseman.
Right behind him is a pair of former college teammates at Virginia. (And like Wright, they all grew up in the Tidewater area around Virginia Beach.)
Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals set career highs across the board last season with a .292 average, 33 homers, 110 runs scored and 106 RBI -- and he did it on the worst team in baseball. Along with the high average, Zimmerman also had a career-best walk rate. That's an excellent combination that suggests he's continuing to improve as a hitter.
Meanwhile, Mark Reynolds of Arizona was one of the biggest fantasy finds last season. As the only major leaguer with at least 40 home runs, 100 RBI and 20 stolen bases (he had 44, 102 and 23), he could easily be a top-10 overall pick. But an inability to make consistent contact raises a major red flag and casts doubt on whether he can come close to reaching those numbers in 2010.
San Francisco's Pablo Sandoval was also a pleasant surprise last season, hitting .330 with 25 homers and finishing second to Hanley Ramirez in the NL batting race. Like Reynolds and Boston's Kevin Youkilis, Sandoval has the added benefit of being eligible at both corner infield spots.
Speaking of dual eligibility, Colorado's Ian Stewart qualifies at second and third. Stewart hit 25 homers and drove in 70 runs last season -- albeit with a .228 batting average. But with a full-time starting job, Stewart could be a valuable mid-round sleeper. Other 3B-eligibles who can play more than one position include Martin Prado (1B, 2B), Mark DeRosa (OF) and Casey McGehee (2B). Don't forget, power sleeper Troy Glaus is moving across the diamond to be Atlanta's starting first baseman this season. And Placido Polanco is moving from second base to third after joining the Phillies.
<TABLE border=1 width=300 align=center><TBODY><TR><TD>1</TD><TD>David Wright</TD><TD>NYM</TD></TR><TR><TD>2</TD><TD>Ryan Zimmerman</TD><TD>Was</TD></TR><TR><TD>3</TD><TD>Mark Reynolds</TD><TD>Ari</TD></TR><TR><TD>4</TD><TD>Pablo Sandoval</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR><TD>5</TD><TD>Aramis Ramirez</TD><TD>ChC</TD></TR><TR><TD>6</TD><TD>Chipper Jones</TD><TD>Atl</TD></TR><TR><TD>7</TD><TD>Ian Stewart</TD><TD>Col</TD></TR><TR><TD>8</TD><TD>Martin Prado</TD><TD>Atl</TD></TR><TR><TD>9</TD><TD>Mark DeRosa</TD><TD>SF</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>Scott Rolen</TD><TD>Cin</TD></TR><TR><TD>11</TD><TD>Casey Blake</TD><TD>LAA</TD></TR><TR><TD>12</TD><TD>Casey McGehee</TD><TD>Mil</TD></TR><TR><TD>13</TD><TD>Jorge Cantu</TD><TD>Fla</TD></TR><TR><TD>14</TD><TD>Troy Glaus</TD><TD>Atl</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[HacheMan]

Tape-measure homers feed the Heyward hype machine

Apparently, it's going to be hard to keep Braves phenom Jason Heyward from being the team's starting right fielder on opening day.
Heyward's already-high fantasy stock has jumped considerably this past week as word of his prodigious home runs in batting practice have spread throughout the Grapefruit League.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that the Braves are seriously considering installing nets over the parking lots beyond the right-field wall at the club's training camp home, Champion Stadium.
One batting practice shot even did $3,400 damage to the sunroof of a car belonging to Braves assistant GM Bruce Manno -- an estimated 440 feet away from home plate.
Chipper Jones has compared Heyward to Fred McGriff. Manager Bobby Cox says the ball coming off his bat has the same sound Hank Aaron's did.
In the ongoing KFFL Baseball Analysis Draft, Heyward was taken with the first pick in the 14th round. That makes him the 44th outfielder chosen overall -- a fourth outfielder in 12-team mixed leagues and a starter in 10-team NL-only leagues.
As Knox Bardeen of FanHouse points out, Heyward's ADP is currently around 306 ... but that's sure to jump with stories like these circulating. The Braves had rookie Tommy Hanson make an immediate impact last season so the chances seem pretty good of Heyward making one in 2010.

 

[HacheMan]

2010 AL Outfield Overview
Moving on to the AL outfield overview. For my complete projections and writeups of over 1,000 players, check out Rotoworld's online draft guide.

AL Outfield Overview

Underrated

Nick Markakis (Orioles) - Markakis lost 59 points of OBP and 38 points of slugging from 2008 to 2009, yet he still managed to score 94 runs and drive in 101 in an underrated Baltimore lineup that only figures to get better this year. If he bounces back -- and at 26, there's no reason to think he won't -- he should finish in the top 10 and maybe even the top five in the AL in both categories. I think the mediocre season will go down as a fluke, and Markakis will hit .300 with 22-25 homers this year.

Bobby Abreu (Angels) - He usually fits this category. Even though he stole 30 bases and contributed everywhere last year, Abreu isn't generally being treated as a top-20 outfield right now. I place him 15th (9th among AL OF), even though I'm projecting modest declines in every category except runs scored. The departure of Chone Figgins won't help, but Abreu is due a few more at-bats if the Angels go forward with the plan to hit him second and he'll still have a fair number of RBI opportunities because of the lineup's strength down in the order. Durability also works in his favor, as Abreu has played in at least 150 games in each of his 12 seasons as a regular. I have him down for 16 homers and 24 steals.

Alex Rios (White Sox) - Even during a brutal campaign, Rios managed 17 homers and 24 steals. One can argue whether the White Sox made the right move in assuming his hefty contract on waivers, but Rios can be a mediocre regular and still function as a top-20 fantasy outfielders. He's an excellent basestealer, having been successful in 73 of his 88 tries the last three years, and he hit .302, .297 and .291 in the three seasons before tumbling to .247 last year. That he's moved from an average home run park to the AL's best gives him more upside than ever. A 20 HR-20 SB season should be on the way.

Julio Borbon (Rangers) - If you can't land Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury early in the draft, Borbon and Juan Pierre could provide pretty good value later on. Borbon is the riskier pick, but he offers more upside in the other categories than Pierre does. He could score 100-110 runs if he maintains the leadoff spot in the strong Texas lineup, and he's not a complete zero when it comes to power. Of course, the stolen base will make or break him as a fantasy outfielder. He was 19-for-23 in just 157 at-bats for the Rangers last year, so he could top 40 or 50 in a full season in 2010.

Overrated

Adam Lind (Blue Jays) - I doubt a collapse is in store, but Lind's play should drop off some after a 2009 in which he was one of the league's best hitters and he's probably not going to get a lot of help from the bats around him. The Blue Jays will lose a lot in the leadoff spot this year, and Aaron Hill, who figures to precede Lind in the lineup, doesn't get on base a whole lot. I have him at .293-31-108, making him my No. 14 outfielder overall.

Josh Hamilton (Rangers) - Hamilton's 2008 (.304-32-130) was much closer to his true ability than his 2009 (.268-10-54), but he's just so fragile that it'd be crazy to pencil him in to play in 140-150 games. The Rangers might be helping him out by moving him from center to right this year, though in giving him less ground to cover, they have offered him one more wall he could potentially hurt himself running into. They're probably not going to DH him too often after signing Vladimir Guerrero to fill that spot. If Hamilton gets 580-600 at-bats, then there's a real chance he'll be a top-10 outfielder. However, I rank him 26th.

Johnny Damon (Tigers) - Yankee Stadium, both old and new, suited Damon's power stroke perfectly. It's doubtful that he'll slice nearly as many balls over the right-field wall in Comerica this year, though he actually has hit very well there over the course of this career (.363, 5 HR in 171 AB). Maybe he'll bounce back as a basestealer after attempting just 12 last year, but he should decline in every other category. I'd put him at the top of the list of players to avoid this year.

Sleepers

Carlos Guillen (Tigers) - Guillen, on the other hand, got a nice lift from the Damon signing. Now he'll be penciled in as the Tigers' primary DH, giving him a far better chance of staying healthy. His production has been in sharp decline (his OPS has gone from 920 to 859 to 811 to 757 the last four years), but that's largely the result of injuries. That he'll be DHing most of the time could allow him to play in 140 games and drive in 85 runs behind Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez.

Rick Ankiel (Royals) - Ankiel found himself a starting job after being looked at as a potential fourth outfielder by most of his suitors over the winter, but he did land in a tough situation from a fantasy perspective. Not only is he in a weak lineup, but he'll be playing half of his games in a stadium that's been extremely difficult for left-handers to hit homers in of late (only Petco rates worse in three-year park factors). So, I'm not looking for a major rebound from Ankiel. That said, he has the raw power to blast 25-28 homers even in Kauffman Stadium. I doubt he'll hit for average, but he might provide $8-$10 in value in AL-only leagues.

Travis Snider (Blue Jays) - Snider was supposed to have to compete for a job this spring, but the Blue Jays haven't brought in anyone likely to threaten him. After returning from the minors last year, Snider hit a respectable .239/.351/.437 with six homers in 142 at-bats. He continued to strike out a ton, but that's probably never going to change. When he makes contact, he tends to hit the ball hard, and he's probably just a year or two away from turning into an annual 30-homer guy. He offers quite a bit of upside for someone who could go for $5-$7 in AL-only drafts.

Matt Joyce (Rays) - The Rays gave up Edwin Jackson for Joyce, only to bury him in Triple-A for almost the entire year. Joyce, though, is expected to be in the mix to take over as the team's right fielder against right-handers this season. He's hit .245/.331/.493 with 15 homers in his 274 major league at-bats the last two years, and he'll help his case for playing time with quality defense. With some luck, he could hit 20 homers and drive in 70 runs.

Eric Patterson (Athletics) - Hope for a trade. Oakland's winter moves would seem to suggest that the team has no interest in expanding Patterson's role, but the 26-year-old is out of options and there should be a fair amount of interest in him if the A's decline to carry him as a utilityman. Patterson hit .307/.376/.494 with 43 steals in 49 attempts for Triple-A Sacramento last year and .287/.373/.394 with six steals in his 94 at-bats with the A's. He could be this year's Rajai Davis if things break right.

 

[HacheMan]

Psst...The Secret's Out
You think you're pretty clever, don't you? You've probably had several players filed away in the back of your mind as potential breakout stars, just waiting for the chance to strike on draft day. Well, guess what? People talk. Too much for their own good, sometimes. We're blessed with limitless resources for fantasy information and conversation, and while this is fantastic for the consumer, the oversaturation can be double-edged.

Many publications are valuing the same players highly, directly affecting their Average Draft Position (ADP), whether the player in question has earned it or not. So, that guy you thought was a "sleeper" last fall? Yeah, everybody already knows about him. What I aim to do with this column is point out just a few of these players and some possible contingency plans should they slip off the board early.

By the way, you can access our constantly updating Average Draft Position (ADP) in the new Rotoworld Draft Guide. It's the perfect way to monitor how some of your favorite "sleepers" are faring in early mocks. We're helpful like that.

Brett Anderson (LHP, Athletics) Current ADP: 162.99

The emerging fantasy ace, Anderson has been one of the fastest risers in recent weeks, blowing right past more established starters like John Danks and Ryan Dempster. And in truth, it's hard not to be impressed by the 22-year-old southpaw. Anderson was 11-11 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP during his rookie season, and while those numbers don't jump off the page, consider that he was 8-4 with a 2.96 ERA over his final 17 starts, averaging 8.9 K/9 and a stingy 2.3 BB/9, almost mirroring his output over two seasons in the minor leagues (9.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9).

There isn't much to suggest a fluke was at work here. Anderson compiled a 50.9 percent groundball rate during his rookie campaign -- compared to 56.5 percent in the minor leagues --- and he dominated right-handers to a .247 batting average against last season -- compared to .257 in the minor leagues. Best of all, he pitches half of his games in the Oakland Coliseum, one of the kindest pitcher's parks around. I realize I'm not doing much to deter you from drafting him and there's a reason for that. He's good. Just don't be surprised to see that ADP creep up even more in the next few weeks, increasing the likelihood that one of your leaguemates will reach for him early.

Worthy alternative: Clay Buchholz (RHP, Red Sox) Current ADP: 203.78

There's six starters for five spots in Boston, but if you've listened to early reports on Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield, it would take an utter implosion for Buchholz to be on the outside looking in once the season begins. Take heed of the small sample size, but the 25-year-old right-hander was 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 26/9 K/BB ratio in 37 2/3 innings last September, closely resembling the same pitcher who dominated Triple-A Pawtucket. This could finally be his time to shine.

Miguel Montero (C, Diamondbacks) Current ADP: 143.4

We might be witnessing the next "Big M" behind the plate here. You know, as in Mauer, Martinez, McCann, and until last season at least, Martin. The 26-year-old Montero is currently being selected after the likes of Jorge Posada and Kurt Suzuki in mocks and while that's fine for right now, look for the Arizona backstop to creep past them as drafts continue. Montero found his way into fantasy relevancy last season after batting .294/.355/.478 with 16 homers and 59 RBI in 425 at-bats, taking the starting job away from Chris Snyder.

He batted .316 with 11 home runs and 40 RBI after the All-Star break and only the aforementioned Mauer topped his 900 OPS during the second half. Making judgments based on small sample sizes can be dangerous, of course, but the catcher position is one of the few where it's okay to speculate. In turn, look for Montero to be an overwhelmingly popular selection in drafts this month, as many of your leaguemates would rather invest in a player on the way up than a player like Martin who is trying to reestablish their value. Just be sure that his ADP doesn't outshine his true worth.

Worthy alternative: Geovany Soto (C, Cubs) Current ADP: 150.2

This is what buy-low opportunities are made for. Soto collapsed in a bad way last season, but aside from his .254 batting average on balls in play (as opposed to .332 in 2008 and his .359 career mark in the minor leagues), not much changed in his hit profile. Now 40 pounds slimmer, look for a healthy rebound.

Nolan Reimold (OF, Orioles) Current ADP: 197

The perfect candidate for a late-round value pick, Reimold has experienced a dramatic jump in recent weeks as it appears he is fully-healed from surgery on his left Achilles' tendon. The former second-round draft pick was a pleasant surprise upon his promotion last May, batting .279/.365/.466 with 15 homers, 35 extra-base hits, 45 RBI and eight stolen bases in just 358 at-bats. We'd like to see him convert some of those infield flies (16%) into line drives (14.4%), but with a solid contact rate (80.3%), we're optimistic about his chances of at least maintaining a similar batting average.

With his power profile in the minors, it's not too crazy to think that Reimold could put up 25 homers and double-digit stolen bases with a full season of at-bats, especially on a healthy Achilles. Keep an eye on Felix Pie and Luke Scott if he struggles, but manager Dave Trembley has given every indication that Reimold will be his starting left fielder this season. His current ADP is palatable for a late-round flier, but any higher and you'd be better off speculating on the game-changing speed of Julio Borbon (Current ADP: 188.7).

Worthy alternative: Travis Snider (OF, Blue Jays) Current ADP: 234.7

There's plenty of intriguing outfield options as we work our way to the bottom of the draft board, but Snider has the most power potential among them. The Jays sent the former first-round pick back to Triple-A Las Vegas last season while they were still in contention, but Snider is virtually assured of an everyday job this time around, for better or worse.

Elvis Andrus (SS, Rangers) Current ADP: 153.6

Believe it or not, Andrus is currently being drafted behind Rafael Furcal and just ahead of Orlando Cabrera. While this makes him a tremendous value right now, look for everyone's favorite sleeper at the position to continue to climb draft boards throughout March. And with good reason. Andrus batted .267/.329/.373 as a 20-year-old last season and looked much more comfortable as the season wore on, batting .280/.342/.395 after the All-Star break. Granted, Jose Reyes wasn't around for most of the season, but Andrus quietly led all major league shortstops with 33 stolen bases during his rookie campaign.

Keep in mind that Andrus compiled a .275/.343/.361 batting line over four seasons in the minors, so those who draft him will have to hope that he is not merely meeting a temporary ceiling, because as it stands right now, Andrus is not a top-10 fantasy shortstop. Still, be prepared with the very real possibility that your leaguemates would rather bank on the upside of Andrus -- say, a .280 batting average and 45 stolen bases -- as opposed to drafting boring veterans like Furcal and Miguel Tejada.

Worthy alternative: Erick Aybar (SS, Angels) Current ADP: 193.2

Another player with top-10 shortstop potential, Aybar should get an opportunity to sit atop Mike Scioscia's batting order this season. Time will tell if he's truly up to the task, but the 26-year-old made dramatic strides across the board last season. If he can add a few more steals to his game, it won't sting to lose out on Andrus.

Ian Stewart (3B, Rockies) Current ADP: 128.3

Oh, the price we'll pay for power. While Stewart has held pretty steady in recent mocks, he has garnered considerable attention this offseason in part because of his prodigious thump, but also due to his eligibility at both second and third base. Stewart, who turns 25 in April, swiped the starting third base gig away from Garrett Atkins last season, slamming 25 homers in just 425 at-bats. Early mock drafters are so impressed that they are currently selecting him ahead of Chipper Jones and Howie Kendrick. While the power is enticing, Stewart batted just .228 last season -- eighth lowest among players with at least 450 plate appearances -- including a .178 batting average against left-handers.

His .293/.374/.524 batting line in the minors hints at something more, but unless he can make more contact (72.1 percent last season, 70.9 percent career), strike out a little less (32.5 percent last season) or hit a few more line drives (just 14.1 percent last season) his batting average will stay relatively low. If anything, this is a year you should be drafting a third baseman high, so if you plan to roll the dice on him, be prepared for a trigger-happy owner to snag the versatile Stewart before you have the chance.

Worthy alternative: Chris Davis (3B, Rangers) Current ADP: 159.7

He undoubtedly burned you last season, but when you really think about it, these two compare pretty favorably. While Davis struck out 150 times last season, he still managed to homer 21 times in 391 at-bats. While he primarily played first base last season, Davis is a sneaky choice in leagues with 10-game eligibility. Davis just made it at third, playing in 11 games there last season. He'll hold off Justin Smoak for now.

 

[HacheMan]

Protection racket: Probable NL lineups


By Steve Gardner, USA TODAY
Draft-day values are determined mostly by a player's individual skills, but playing time and lineup placement are also important factors. My projected lineups for the National League (AL lineups next week):
Arizona Diamondbacks
SS: Stephen Drew
LF: Conor Jackson
RF: Justin Upton

1B: Adam LaRoche
3B: Mark Reynolds
C: Miguel Montero
CF: Chris Young
2B: Kelly Johnson
Drew did an excellent job last season after taking over the leadoff spot, hitting .301. Jackson was limited to 99 at-bats after getting the fungal disease Valley Fever, but he was a .300 hitter in 2008 and is a nice sleeper candidate. No team struck out more than the Diamondbacks, paced by a record-breaking 223 from Reynolds and 137 from Upton. Both compensated for those whiffs with exceptionally high batting averages on balls in play — .341 for Reynolds and .364 for Upton. Beware of lofty expectations for both.
Atlanta Braves
CF: Nate McLouth
2B: Martin Prado
3B: Chipper Jones
1B: Troy Glaus
C: Brian McCann
SS: Yunel Escobar
RF: Jason Heyward/Matt Diaz
LF: Melky Cabrera/Matt Diaz
McLouth was plagued by a hamstring injury, and although he still hit 20 homers, his slugging percentage dropped more than 60 points from 2008. Look for a rebound — perhaps enough for him to move down to a more run-producing spot in the order. If that's the case, Escobar's .377 on-base percentage would make him a good candidate to lead off.
Heyward's batting practice bombs have become legendary this spring. If he can successfully make the jump to the majors at age 20, he could be a difference-maker. I'll be conservative for now.
Chicago Cubs
SS: Ryan Theriot
RF: Kosuke Fukudome
1B: Derrek Lee
3B: Aramis Ramirez
CF: Marlon Byrd
LF: Alfonso Soriano
C: Geovany Soto
2B: Jeff Baker/Mike Fontenot
Even manager Lou Piniella can admit it now: Alfonso Soriano is no longer a leadoff hitter. Soriano had season-ending knee surgery in September and still isn't 100%. His days of stealing 20 bases are gone. Theriot is the team's only basestealing threat, so he'll take over at the top. Fukudome could see some at-bats in the leadoff spot since he and Fontenot are the only left-handed regulars. Byrd arrives after posting career highs in homers (20) and RBI (89) with the Texas Rangers.
The key to the offense might be a return to rookie of the year form by Soto. After hitting .218, he worked out intensely over the offseason and reported to camp 40 pounds lighter.
Cincinnati Reds
CF: Drew Stubbs
SS: Orlando Cabrera
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Scott Rolen
RF: Jay Bruce
C: Ramon Hernandez
LF: Chris Dickerson/Laynce Nix/Jonny Gomes
Stubbs stole 46 bases in the minors before being promoted in August, but what got him noticed was hitting eight homers in 42 games. (His full-season high in the minors was 12.) Free agent signee Cabrera should improve the Reds' NL-worst .235 average and .302 on-base percentage. He could score plenty of runs hitting in front of Votto and Phillips. Votto didn't play a full season, but he ranked fifth in the NL in batting average (.322) and slugging (.567) and third in OPS (.981). Bruce missed two months with a broken wrist but hit .326 with four homers and 17 RBI in 18 games after he returned. Just 22, he has 30-homer potential.
Colorado Rockies
CF: Dexter Fowler
LF: Carlos Gonzalez
1B: Todd Helton
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
RF: Brad Hawpe
C: Chris Iannetta
3B: Ian Stewart
2B: Clint Barmes
The Rockies have remade their lineup during the last two seasons. Young outfielders Dexter Fowler, 23, and Carlos Gonzalez, 24, give them speed at the top of the order. Troy Tulowitzki, 25, bounced back from an injury-plagued 2008 to hit .297 with 32 homers and establish himself as one of the top shortstops in the game. And Ian Stewart, 24, should get a chance to play everyday at third base. He hit 25 homers in 425 at-bats a year ago. Add in veterans Helton and Hawpe, and it's no wonder the Rockies had the NL's best OPS last season (.784).
Florida Marlins
LF: Chris Coghlan
CF: Cameron Maybin
SS: Hanley Ramirez
2B: Dan Uggla
3B: Jorge Cantu
RF: Cody Ross
1B: Gaby Sanchez/Logan Morrison
C: John Baker
Coghlan was an unheralded rookie playing a new position, but all he did was hit .336 as a leadoff man, the best in the majors. The second spot, however, is up for grabs. Maybin was penciled in at the top of the order last spring, but a slow start sent him back to the minors. A more patient approach at the plate paid off, and he hit .299 after a September recall. Ramirez responded to his new role as the No. 3 hitter by winning a batting title and driving in 106 runs. The most interesting battle in camp will be at first base. Morrison was the Florida State League MVP in 2008, but was limited to 79 games last season because of a broken thumb.
Houston Astros
CF: Michael Bourn
2B: Kaz Matsui
1B: Lance Berkman
LF: Carlos Lee
RF: Hunter Pence
3B: Pedro Feliz
C: J.R. Towles/Jason Castro
SS: Tommy Manzella
Bourn led the NL in stolen bases, but a .367 average on balls in play makes it unlikely he'll be able to hit .285 again. Speed, on the other hand, doesn't slump, so put him down for another 50 steals. Matsui has had trouble staying healthy, so he might not be a fixture at No. 2, especially against right-handers. Berkman's and Lee's home run totals have dropped every year since 2006, so be cautious even though they're still solid performers. Pence (.282, 25 HRs, 72 RBI) is really the only young player who has upside. Newcomers Feliz and Manzella will have a hard time replacing the offense Miguel Tejada provided the Astros last season when they still finished in the NL's bottom three in scoring.
Los Angeles Dodgers
SS: Rafael Furcal
CF: Matt Kemp
RF: Andre Ethier
LF: Manny Ramirez
1B: James Loney
3B: Casey Blake
2B: Ronnie Belliard
C: Russell Martin
Even with Manny Ramirez being absent for 50 games, the Dodgers led the NL in on-base percentage (.346) and finished tied for the best batting average (.270). Kemp has established himself as a five-tool fantasy player after hitting .297 with 26 homers, 101 RBI, 97 runs scored and 34 steals. Ramirez says it's his last year in Los Angeles, which means he'll have the incentive of playing for his next contract.
Ethier hit .194 against left-handers but still had 31 homers and more than 100 RBI. Martin added 25 pounds in the offseason, which fantasy owners hope will enable him to hit more than seven home runs. It might also mean the end of double-digit steals totals.
Milwaukee Brewers
2B: Rickie Weeks
SS: Alcides Escobar
LF: Ryan Braun
1B: Prince Fielder
RF: Corey Hart
3B: Casey McGehee
C: Gregg Zaun
CF: Carlos Gomez
Everything still revolves around Braun and Fielder, who combined for 78 homers and 255 RBI. Weeks is back atop the order after wrist surgery ended a promising 2009 campaign. But he's never played more than 129 games in a season. The No. 2 spot is up for grabs, with Escobar a top candidate after hitting .390 and winning the Venezuelan Winter League batting crown. He stole 42 bases in Class AAA before being promoted and hitting .304 in 38 games with Milwaukee.
That was enough for the Brewers to trade former All-Star J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins so Escobar could be the starting shortstop. Since all three of the starting outfielders bat right-handed, Jim Edmonds, 40, could make the team as a reserve.
New York Mets
2B: Luis Castillo
1B: Daniel Murphy
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: David Wright
LF: Jason Bay
RF: Jeff Francoeur
C: Rod Barajas
CF: Angel Pagan/Gary Matthews Jr.
After a hamstring injury limited him to 147 at-bats, Reyes is back as the catalyst. But he won't be doing it from the leadoff spot. With Carlos Beltran recovering from knee surgery, manager Jerry Manuel is giving Reyes an opportunity to hit third. Pagan has the edge on Matthews in the battle to fill in for Beltran. He could also move up to the leadoff spot and bump Murphy down. Bay provides much-needed power for a team that hit a major league-low 95 home runs. Francoeur hit .311 with an .836 OPS after being acquired from Atlanta.
Philadelphia Phillies
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Placido Polanco
2B: Chase Utley
1B: Ryan Howard
RF: Jayson Werth
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
C: Carlos Ruiz
From top to bottom, the Phillies look to have the league's best offense, but the arrival of Polanco gives them more options. He's a classic No. 2 hitter — something they really haven't had on their back-to-back pennant winners, even though Werth and Victorino have filled the role well. Rollins' on-base percentage (.296) might be a concern though. Believe it or not, Werth's 36 homers were the most of any outfielder in the NL. Ibanez was second with 34. Ruiz is a popular sleeper pick at catcher because of the Phillies' offense and because of his improvement over the second half of last season (.276 average after the All-Star break).
Pittsburgh Pirates
CF: Andrew McCutchen
2B: Akinori Iwamura
C: Ryan Doumit
RF-1B: Garrett Jones
LF: Lastings Milledge
1B-RF: Jeff Clement/Steven Pearce/Ryan Church
3B: Andy LaRoche
SS: Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby
The Pirates scored the fewest runs in the majors last season (636), but that could change with a full year out of McCutchen. The 23-year-old made his debut in midseason and finished with a .286 average, 12 homers and 22 steals in 108 games. The club has another top-flight prospect in third baseman Pedro Alvarez, who could be in line for a midseason debut himself. The Pirates will look for run production from Doumit and last season's surprise rookie, Jones (21 HRs). Converted catcher Jeff Clement will get the first opportunity in spring training to win the first-base job. If he falters, Jones can play first, and Church would start in right field.
St. Louis Cardinals
2B: Skip Schumaker
CF: Colby Rasmus
1B: Albert Pujols
LF: Matt Holliday
RF: Ryan Ludwick
C: Yadier Molina
3B: David Freese/Tyler Greene/Allen Craig
SS: Brendan Ryan/Julio Lugo
Now that the Cardinals have solidified the heart of their order by re-signing Holliday to hit behind Pujols, a big question is who fills the No. 2 spot in front of the three-time MVP. Rasmus would be the logical choice. He had a .284 average last season when batting second (compared with .251 overall), but don't look for him to steal many bases with Pujols and Holliday behind him. Third base is the biggest question mark in spring training. Freese (.323 in 31 at-bats with St. Louis, .313 in the minors) appears to have the best shot at winning the job.
San Diego Padres
CF: Tony Gwynn Jr.
SS: Everth Cabrera
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
3B: Chase Headley
LF: Kyle Blanks
RF: Will Venable/Scott Hairston
C: Nick Hundley/Yorvit Torrealba
2B: David Eckstein
The Padres had the majors' worst team batting average at .242, but they were even worse at home — where they hit .219. Part of that can be blamed on pitcher-friendly Petco Park. But outside of 40-homer slugger Gonzalez, this is an offensively challenged team.
Gwynn had a solid OBP (.350) and has a pretty good leadoff pedigree, but he struggles against left-handers (.215 average, .267 OBP). Cabrera stole 25 bases in 103 games and could be an excellent late-round pick, especially if he finds a home at the top of the order. Keep an eye on Blanks. The 6-6, 260-pounder slugged a home run every 14.8 at-bats, a ratio that would have put him in the NL's top 10.
San Francisco Giants
CF: Aaron Rowand
2B: Juan Uribe/Freddy Sanchez
3B: Pablo Sandoval
1B: Aubrey Huff
LF: Mark DeRosa
C: Bengie Molina
RF: Nate Schierholtz
SS: Edgar Renteria
Lacking a true leadoff hitter, the Giants will turn to Rowand — who's at least familiar with the role but doesn't provide much speed on the basepaths. Sanchez could possibly miss the first month because of offseason shoulder surgery, so super-sub Uribe will get regular at-bats for a while. Sandoval finished second in the NL batting race (.330) and hit even better in the Venezuelan Winter League (.395), so count on another productive year.
The Giants were last in the majors in on-base percentage (.309) and OPS (.699), so they moved aggressively on the free agent market to add Huff and DeRosa and re-sign Molina. Top prospect Buster Posey could supplant Molina at catcher at some point.
Washington Nationals
CF: Nyjer Morgan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
1B: Adam Dunn
LF: Josh Willingham
RF: Elijah Dukes
C: Ivan Rodriguez
SS: Cristian Guzman
Morgan's arrival from Pittsburgh transformed the Washington offense. He hit .351 with 24 stolen bases in 49 games with the club before breaking his hand. Morgan and free agent signee Kennedy set the table for Zimmerman (33 HRs, 106 RBI) and Dunn (38 HRs, 105 RBI). Willingham will be a starter from the outset, which should allow him to challenge his career bests (26 HRs, 89 RBI).
Rodriguez was signed mostly for his defensive abilities, but he'll be the primary catcher as Jesus Flores works his way back from shoulder and elbow surgery. Guzman could be pushed by prospect Ian Desmond at short.
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[HacheMan]

Switching leagues can be boon or bust


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</TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top colSpan=2>

CHANGING LEAGUES</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText colSpan=2><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=227><TBODY><TR><TD class=vaTextBold>New to AL</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>New to NL</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>C Jason Kendall</TD><TD class=vaText>C Miguel Olivo</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>2B Orlando Hudson</TD><TD class=vaText>C Gregg Zaun</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>SS Miguel Tejada</TD><TD class=vaText>C Ivan Rodriguez</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>SS J.J. Hardy</TD><TD class=vaText>1B Aubrey Huff</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>3B/1B Garrett Atkins</TD><TD class=vaText>2B Placido Polanco</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>3B Kevin Kouzmanoff</TD><TD class=vaText>2B/3B Adam Kennedy</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>3B/OF Jake Fox</TD><TD class=vaText>SS Orlando Cabrera</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>OF Milton Bradley</TD><TD class=vaText>3B Troy Glaus</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>OF Juan Pierre</TD><TD class=vaText>3B Melvin Mora</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>OF Jeremy Hermida</TD><TD class=vaText>OF Jason Bay</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>OF Mike Cameron</TD><TD class=vaText>OF Scott Hairston</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>OF Rick Ankiel</TD><TD class=vaText>OF Marlon Byrd</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>OF Randy Winn</TD><TD class=vaText>OF Melky Cabrera</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>DH Jim Thome</TD><TD class=vaText>OF Carlos Gomez</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>SP Cliff Lee</TD><TD class=vaText>OF Xavier Nady</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>SP Javier Vazquez</TD><TD class=vaText>OF Gary Matthews Jr.</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>SP Ben Sheets</TD><TD class=vaText>UT Mike Jacobs</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>SP Joel Pineiro</TD><TD class=vaText>SP Roy Halladay</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>SP Rich Harden</TD><TD class=vaText>SP Edwin Jackson</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>SP Max Scherzer</TD><TD class=vaText>SP Aroldis Chapman</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>RP Jose Valverde</TD><TD class=vaText>RP Billy Wagner</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>RP Rafael Soriano</TD><TD class=vaText>RP Brandon Lyon</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>RP Mike Gonzalez</TD><TD class=vaText>RP Octavio Dotel</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>RP Kevin Gregg</TD><TD class=vaText> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


By Steve Gardner, USA TODAY
So you've finally decided to start preparing for your fantasy baseball draft. Whether you're in a keeper league or you're starting from scratch, the first thing that needs to be done is try to make sense of all the offseason player movement.
Looking at the overall trends, it seems the American League just keeps getting richer. Last offseason, the top pitcher and hitter to move to the AL were CC Sabathia and Matt Holliday, while the NL picked up Francisco Rodriguez and Milton Bradley.
Even when the NL wins, it loses. For example, Javier Vazquez was an outstanding addition for the Atlanta Braves last year, going 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA. But Vazquez is back in the AL this season after the Braves traded him to the New York Yankees… for Melky Cabrera. (And yes, Bradley is back in the AL too this season, where he should be more effective since he doesn't have to play the outfield every day.)
This offseason, the National League additions were top-quality (Roy Halladay and outfielder Jason Bay), but the American League came out on top in terms of quantity.
Of Sports Weekly's top 200 overall fantasy players (which can be found in our Fantasy Baseball Guide on newsstands and will be updated in the March 17 Fantasy Extra edition of Sports Weekly), 10 of them relocated to the AL while only four went the other way to the NL.

What does all that mean for fantasy owners? It means that while NL-only league owners are fighting over Halladay and Bay, AL-only owners who miss out on Cliff Lee will have Vazquez or Rich Harden as fall-back options. Those who don't get closer Jose Valverde can turn to Rafael Soriano (or should it be the other way around?).
So how about a little analysis of the league-switchers? Glad you asked.
—Biggest impact pitcher: Roy Halladay, Phillies
Halladay compiled a record of 148-76 (.661) in 11 seasons with the Blue Jays. And that was primarily against the heavyweights in the AL East. In Philadelphia, Halladay moves to the NL, gets to toy with opposing pitchers at the plate and inherits the league's best offense to support him.
The past two seasons, Halladay's ERA has been 2.78 and 2.79. Given the success of pitchers who have moved from the AL to the NL (Vazquez being last year's best example), it's possible Halladay could do even better in Philly — and maybe even break Tim Lincecum's stranglehold on the Cy Young Award.
—Biggest impact hitter: Jason Bay, Mets
Bay is a solid run-producer who's hit over 30 homers and driven in over 100 runs in four of the past five seasons. The real issue with him signing with the Mets is how well he'll hit for power at Citi Field, where the rest of the team developed an uncanny inability to clear the fences last season.
Expect Bay to put those worries to rest. According to HitTrackerOnline.com, the average distance of Bay's 36 home runs last season was 390 feet. Of those 36, 17 of them would have been home runs in any major league stadium. Nine more would have been out in 27 of 30.
One other fun fact — the Bill James Handbook 2010 analyzed all the home runs hit at Citi Field last season and contrary to popular belief, the park was actually favorable to right-handed power hitters. In other words, don't worry about a power outage from Bay this season.
—Biggest red flag: Joel Pineiro, Angels
After John Lackey, Pineiro was perhaps the most accomplished pitcher in a relatively weak free-agent class. Pineiro relies on a sinker he developed under Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. With it, he won 15 games last season and led the National League by getting ground balls an amazing 60% of the time. Even though he struck out less than 4.5 batters per nine innings, his impeccable control (1.13 BB/9) fueled a 1.14 WHIP. However, American League hitters are generally more patient than those in the NL and Pineiro doesn't have a track record to give fantasy owners confidence he can do it all again.
—Biggest gamble: Ben Sheets, Athletics
Sheets missed all of last season after undergoing elbow surgery, but he impressed the A's enough for them to offer him a $10 million contract. The four-time All Star's fantasy value may have been a bit better as a Met or a Cub, but at least in Oakland he'll have the advantage of a solid pitcher's park.
Sheets has almost always had a low WHIP and an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, which have contributed to a 3.72 career ERA. But he's also missed time to injury in four of his last five seasons. The A's know this as well as anyone and could end up trading him at midseason. Buyer beware.
—Best fit: Rafael Soriano, Rays
If you're looking for a reason the Rays went from AL champions in 2008 to out of the playoffs in '09, go no further than the bullpen. Closer Troy Percival pitched all of 11 1/3 innings before shoulder problems ended his season (and most likely his career). With no established closer, the Rays had a major league high nine different pitchers pick up a save.
Enter Soriano, who converted 27 of 31 save chances and had a 2.97 ERA for Atlanta. Even most important, he can strike batters out. Rays relievers had the fewest strikeouts in the American League, but that shouldn't be a problem for Soriano, who racked up 102 K's in 75 2/3 innings (12.13 K/9) — the second-best ratio in the majors.
—Biggest increase in value: Octavio Dotel, Pirates
Dotel was a setup man for the White Sox last season, but had the majors' ninth-best K/9 rate. He has only been a closer for one season, 2004, when he racked up 36 saves for the A's. Now at age 36, he'll have that role again with Pittsburgh. Dotel shouldn't require much of a draft-day investment, but he could end up being a fantasy team's MVP (Most Valuable Pirate).
—Biggest sleeper: Placido Polanco, Phillies
For his career, Polanco owns a .303 average and a .348 on-base percentage. Part of the reason he's been so successful is his elite contact rate. Put him in the No. 2 spot in the Philadelphia Phillies order — behind Jimmy Rollins and in front of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard— and watch the runs soar.
With the National League lacking in quality options at second base and Polanco adding third base eligibility this season with the Phils, he'll be an asset to any fantasy team.
—Most fortunate: Orlando Hudson, Twins and Orlando Cabrera, Reds
Along those same lines, the two Orlandos landed this winter in what could turn out to be the happiest place on earth for them. The O-Dog (Hudson) will inherit the No. 2 spot in the Twins order, right in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Meanwhile, O-Cab will get to hit in front of rising star Joey Votto and solid veteran Brandon Phillips. O-my.