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Outback Bowl
Mississippi vs. Indiana
Suggested Line 1: Indiana -12.95
Suggested Line 2: Indiana -12.72
Suggested Line 3: Indiana -13.23
Suggested Line 4: Indiana -14.17
PLAY: Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (10 Units)
When Indiana star Quarterback Michael Penix Jr went down with a season ending injury the narrative was that Indiana was done. This is a team that had crept into the TOP 15 teams in the Country at the time and who had a really good shot at knocking off Ohio State but couldn't get the job done. They were well on their way in the Big Ten Conference with one of the best defenses in the Country when their star went down. Did they lose their remaining games? Not even close. Penix Jr went down in the Maryland game and his backup QB Jack Tuttle came in to finish that game. Tuttle made his first start in their season finale against Wisconsin as a +12 point underdogs and threw for 130 total yards, completed 59.1% of his passes and threw 2 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions against a "world class" Badgers secondary. Not bad. Well today Tuttle faces the absolute worst defense on the planet in Ole Miss who come into this game ranked #127 in total yards allowed, #127 in passing yards allowed, #122 in points per game allowed and #104 against the run. Horrendous. Ole Miss did however win 4 games this season in the SEC and they kept Alabama on their toes but that was a "personal" performance by their head coach. Today they have to face the #19 ranked points scored defense in the Country of Indiana who are also #1 in the Country with 17 turnovers forced in only 7 games this season. That's kind of a problem for Ole Miss QB Matt Corral who threw 14 interceptions this season and for a Rebels team who turned the ball over a ton in their games. Ole Miss has a good history in Bowl Games and on Neutral sites but that was with the old coaching staff. Lane Kiffin was 2-0 in Bowl Games at Florida Atlantic but 0-2 in Bowl Games at USC and Tennessee. Ole Miss is only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they score 40+ points and they are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 200+ yards in their previous game. Indiana is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games dating back to the 2019 season, they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a straight up win and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off an ATS spread win in their previous game. Indiana has some NFL caliber wide receivers who have a tremendous chance to raise their stock against a terrible defense and although they won't completely stop Ole Miss, they'll score on almost every drive to win this game by quite a bit.
Trend of the Game: Indiana is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games dating back to the 2019 season.
Indiana 46, Mississippi 24
:toast:
Outback Bowl
Mississippi vs. Indiana
Suggested Line 1: Indiana -12.95
Suggested Line 2: Indiana -12.72
Suggested Line 3: Indiana -13.23
Suggested Line 4: Indiana -14.17
PLAY: Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (10 Units)
When Indiana star Quarterback Michael Penix Jr went down with a season ending injury the narrative was that Indiana was done. This is a team that had crept into the TOP 15 teams in the Country at the time and who had a really good shot at knocking off Ohio State but couldn't get the job done. They were well on their way in the Big Ten Conference with one of the best defenses in the Country when their star went down. Did they lose their remaining games? Not even close. Penix Jr went down in the Maryland game and his backup QB Jack Tuttle came in to finish that game. Tuttle made his first start in their season finale against Wisconsin as a +12 point underdogs and threw for 130 total yards, completed 59.1% of his passes and threw 2 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions against a "world class" Badgers secondary. Not bad. Well today Tuttle faces the absolute worst defense on the planet in Ole Miss who come into this game ranked #127 in total yards allowed, #127 in passing yards allowed, #122 in points per game allowed and #104 against the run. Horrendous. Ole Miss did however win 4 games this season in the SEC and they kept Alabama on their toes but that was a "personal" performance by their head coach. Today they have to face the #19 ranked points scored defense in the Country of Indiana who are also #1 in the Country with 17 turnovers forced in only 7 games this season. That's kind of a problem for Ole Miss QB Matt Corral who threw 14 interceptions this season and for a Rebels team who turned the ball over a ton in their games. Ole Miss has a good history in Bowl Games and on Neutral sites but that was with the old coaching staff. Lane Kiffin was 2-0 in Bowl Games at Florida Atlantic but 0-2 in Bowl Games at USC and Tennessee. Ole Miss is only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they score 40+ points and they are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 200+ yards in their previous game. Indiana is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games dating back to the 2019 season, they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a straight up win and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off an ATS spread win in their previous game. Indiana has some NFL caliber wide receivers who have a tremendous chance to raise their stock against a terrible defense and although they won't completely stop Ole Miss, they'll score on almost every drive to win this game by quite a bit.
Trend of the Game: Indiana is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games dating back to the 2019 season.
Indiana 46, Mississippi 24
:toast:
Flav, appreciate all you’ve done been following you for a couple years now. Quick question that’s been bugging me.
I know you waiting until 10 minutes before the game starts has a lot to do with last second line movement. Does your system take into account the last second line movement? I’m only asking because this is now the 4th game we were on the wrong side of the line movement and your system said to still take it. The games were:
San Jose state -9.5 (dropped to 7 right before kickoff) Ball State humiliated them.
Georgia -9.5 (dropped to 7 at kickoff) Georgia came back and barely won with field goal.
clemson -7.5 (dropped to -6.5 at kickoff) Ohio state blowout
Indiana -10 (dropped to 7 at kickoff) I know the game is still ongoing but they look pathetic.
I know it can’t be as easy as “just follow the line movement” but it seems like it was those past three games. What are your thoughts? Thanks again!
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Fiesta Bowl
Oregon vs. Iowa State
Suggested Line 1: Iowa State -1.83
Suggested Line 2: Iowa State -2.22
Suggested Line 3: Iowa State -2.31
Suggested Line 4: Iowa State -1.92
PLAY: Oregon Ducks +5.5 (10 Units)
The play here is likely going to be Iowa State for most because of what they did this season but the Cyclones had their "SUPER BOWL" on December 19 when they played the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game and failed to the tune of a 27-21 loss as a +5 point underdog. Rough. It would have been the programs first Big 12 Title in history of the school and they came up short. It makes you wonder about their interest in this game while Oregon comes in fresh off a huge upset of USC in the PAC 12 Conference Championship Game despite managing only 243 total yards of offense. Prior to that game which they weren't even supposed to play in in the first place Oregon had lost consecutive games to Cal and Oregon State but they've found some new life with that win. Iowa State's only losses this season came to Louisiana-Lafayette (season opener), Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Oregon is a crazy 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games when playing on a natural grass surface and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Bowl Games. The Ducks come into this game 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Iowa State is 0-6 ATS in their last six games played on a Neutral Site and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl Games coming into this game. The Cyclones are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus non-conference opponents. Mario Cristobal is a very crafty coach who has a tendency to coach well in big games. Remember what he did against Wisconsin last year in the Bowl Game and the year before against Michigan State. Both wins in close games. He pulled off the improbable against USC and his team was injected with life they were badly missing after losing their final two regular season games. What has been somewhat of a mediocre season can all be fixed with a Bowl win today for the Ducks and they should come into this game inspired. My system has picked this game to stay close and I think we're in for a good one. Iowa State might not be motivated but they'll be somewhat interested and this will go back and forth and be decided late. Cristobal is GREAT in Bowl games. Keep that in mind.
Trend of the Game: Oregon is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record.
Oregon 34, Iowa State 31
:toast:
Fiesta Bowl
Oregon vs. Iowa State
Suggested Line 1: Iowa State -1.83
Suggested Line 2: Iowa State -2.22
Suggested Line 3: Iowa State -2.31
Suggested Line 4: Iowa State -1.92
PLAY: Oregon Ducks +5.5 (10 Units)
The play here is likely going to be Iowa State for most because of what they did this season but the Cyclones had their "SUPER BOWL" on December 19 when they played the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game and failed to the tune of a 27-21 loss as a +5 point underdog. Rough. It would have been the programs first Big 12 Title in history of the school and they came up short. It makes you wonder about their interest in this game while Oregon comes in fresh off a huge upset of USC in the PAC 12 Conference Championship Game despite managing only 243 total yards of offense. Prior to that game which they weren't even supposed to play in in the first place Oregon had lost consecutive games to Cal and Oregon State but they've found some new life with that win. Iowa State's only losses this season came to Louisiana-Lafayette (season opener), Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Oregon is a crazy 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games when playing on a natural grass surface and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Bowl Games. The Ducks come into this game 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Iowa State is 0-6 ATS in their last six games played on a Neutral Site and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl Games coming into this game. The Cyclones are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus non-conference opponents. Mario Cristobal is a very crafty coach who has a tendency to coach well in big games. Remember what he did against Wisconsin last year in the Bowl Game and the year before against Michigan State. Both wins in close games. He pulled off the improbable against USC and his team was injected with life they were badly missing after losing their final two regular season games. What has been somewhat of a mediocre season can all be fixed with a Bowl win today for the Ducks and they should come into this game inspired. My system has picked this game to stay close and I think we're in for a good one. Iowa State might not be motivated but they'll be somewhat interested and this will go back and forth and be decided late. Cristobal is GREAT in Bowl games. Keep that in mind.
Trend of the Game: Oregon is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record.
Oregon 34, Iowa State 31
:toast:
